FB: New England Small College Athletic Conference

[The Mole]

43-7

[Gate 91]

Is it too early to begin discussing Player of the Year candidates? Well even if it is I am going to throw the name Zander Zebrowski out there. The bantams QB has proven to be an absolute stud, getting it done on both the air and the ground. Zebrowski leads the league in passing yards, touchdowns, completions, and QBR. Additionally, the kid claims the mind blowing statistic of a 14:0 touchdown to interception ratio, not a turn over on the year! Are you kidding me! Zander "the Polish Hammer" Zebrowski is truly a special talent.

[Nescacman]

Is it too early to begin discussing Player of the Year candidates? Well even if it is I am going to throw the name Zander Zebrowski out there. The bantams QB has proven to be an absolute stud, getting it done on both the air and the ground. Zebrowski leads the league in passing yards, touchdowns, completions, and QBR. Additionally, the kid claims the mind blowing statistic of a 14:0 touchdown to interception ratio, not a turn over on the year! Are you kidding me! Zander "the Polish Hammer" Zebrowski is truly a special talent.

Gate...we suggest you listen to last week's "9 Weeks NESCAC" podcast in which we interviewed the Bantams signal caller. Zander is a very impressive young man as you will see when you watch the podcast, and of course, he hails from Verona, NJ. He will do well upon graduation at JP Morgan. They will be lucky to have him.

[Nescacman]

Amherst problems are all in admissions. This coupled with the fact that they are going after recruits who are trying to make Ivy League or other D1 rosters. A recruit if he does not make an ivy roster then looks at that landscape. If a High School player is talented and wants to win and play in solid program they would consider Trinity if Trinity has there recruits for the year then they start to look at Middlebury , Williams and so on. Amherst is constantly getting the bottom feeders in athletic recruitment. I applaud them for staying with the high academic standards but it is definitely a trade off. I would think it is hard to get a recruit to give up a large portion of their Colleiate career to play .500 ball at best with no chance of winning.

Well said Charlie!

[Nescacman]

Should be an offensive battle this weekend in Waterville! I would expect a high-scoring game between Amherst and Colby!
Ok...moving on from that.
Trinity at Middlebury should be a great game. I am curious to what you folks think about the early spread?

2-0 Mules. Julian Young with the safety for the win.

[GroundandPound]

Gate91, never to early for us NESCAC fans to delve into such topics.  Heck, this topic sometimes is discussed for an upcoming season within a week or two after a season ends.  Yes, I agree Zebrowski is the leading candidate for OPOTY.  His play and stats to date are outstanding!!!

[Trin9-0]

It's starting to feel like a very similar situation to last year, as a one-loss but improving Panther team faces a Bantam squad that has yet to play a close game. And this year it's in Vermont.

We want Trinity.

Be careful what you ask for, Maple...

I understand the urge to compare the two seasons, but these are different teams than a year ago. While Trinity is not quite the offensive juggernaut that they were last year, the offense seems to have more answers. Part of that is Zebrowski's ability to run, but he's also been excellent when the primary receiver is covered and finding secondary options and check-downs as evidence with his near 78% completion percentage. While he has been outstanding, and easily the frontrunner for OPY, the biggest strength of the Trinity offense is actually their receiving corp. Clapp is a mismatch for any corner in this league and cannot be covered 1 on 1. O'Brien's speed can turn any reception into a touchdown. Add in Laughlin and Roche and there are high-quality options available on every passing down. Consider what a luxury it is to have a first team All NESCAC tailback in Tyler DiNapoli and yet he is averaging just 12 carries per game.

I don't think the Panthers match-up well defensively against Trin as they have particularly struggled in pass defense where they rank 8th in the league allowing 230 yards per game. That's not great when you consider three of their games have been against offensively challenged teams in Amherst, Colby, and Bowdoin. The Midd defense does lead the league with 9 interceptions, but Zebrowski has thrown exactly zero ints this season so I'm not particularly worried about that.

As for Trinity's defense it has been well documented that the Bants graduated 9 starters last year, but so many of the guys who've stepped into those roles are only juniors or sophomores. This may account for some of their slow starts this season. In each of the past three games Trin has given up points on their opponent's opening drive and in each of those games they have trailed into the second quarter. Despite that, they have adjusted well and are either 1st or 2nd in nearly every statistical defensive category. That's a scary prospect for the rest of the NESCAC to have such a young squad be one of the top two units in the league.

Going into the Trinity-Middlebury game last year the Bantams were ranked 1st in both offense and defense. This year they are 1st in offense and 2nd in defense (1 yard per game behind Wes). Meanwhile the Panthers were ranked 4th in offense and 2nd in defense a year ago, but are currently 5th in offense and 8 in defense.

The trip to Vermont can be a tough one, but the Bantams have won 3 of their last 4 games at Middlebury. Add in a year's worth of resentment for the Panthers, who are the only team to best Trinity over the past two and a half seasons, and I think you'll see a hyper-focused Bantam squad on a mission to avenge the last second loss a year ago. The SP+ computer model by ESPN's Bill Connelly agrees:

Trinity 33.6, Middlebury 15.1

Here's the rest of the NESCAC projections for week 6:

Amherst 17.1, Colby 17.0
Tufts 37.1, Hamilton 7.0
Wesleyan 28.1, Bowdoin 15.4
Williams 35.6, Bates 10.0

Here's how the model ranks the NESCAC nationally:
22. Trinity
79. Tufts
86. Wesleyan
89. Middlebury
101. Williams
152. Bowdoin
156. Amherst
172. Colby
198. Bates
199. Hamilton

[Nescacman]

2024 NESCACMAN Week 5 Power Rankings

Welcome to the Week 5 Power Rankings for the week of October 14, 2024.

NESCACMAN goes 5-0 (again) for week #5 and we now stand at 23-2 for the year.

In our weekly rankings, Hartford State remains in the top spot based on another strong second half as they pulled away for the win against Hamilton in "The Coop". Wesleyan remains in the #2 spot beating a tough Colby squad in Middletown.

Some details on "NESCACMAN"...we share a love for all things NESCAC, but especially football, with our fellow boardsters. We love everything about NESCAC...the history, traditions, rivalries, quirky rituals, passion, student-athletes, coaches, students, parents, alumni, tailgates, fields of play, et cetera. Each week, we will present our power rankings and then later in the week overviews, predictions, and spreads on every NESCAC game every week. There will also be some special reports along the way. Please note, we try to be as objective and honest as possible (maybe with a slight tinge of red and black). Our opinions stated here are solely those of NESCACMAN and are not the views or opinions of any institution in the NESCAC or the League itself.

We also co-host a podcast titled "Nine Weeks: A NESCAC Football Podcast"  along with Chris Grace, the longtime play-by-play voice of the Wesleyan Football Cardinals. Available weekly, the podcast is available on YouTube and Spotify. Please follow us and take a listen. Episode 5 is available now (featuring interviews with Wesleyan Athletic Director and former Wesleyan and Williams Head Football Coach Mike Whalen and Trinity QB Zander Zebrowski). Episode 6 will be available later this week and will feature Amherst Head Football Coach EJ Mills and Wesleyan LB Ben Carbeau. Should be another great watch/listen. Our weekly show features coach and player interviews, game analysis, rankings, previews, and predictions.
   
1). Hartford State Bantams (Record: 5-0; Last Week Rank: 1; 10 first place votes): The Bantams win again despite another tough first half. Hartford State continues to be the best team in the NESCAC and in New England. Hamilton hangs with the Bants for a half before HS pulled away in the second half. Game was tied at the half 7-7. Another big second half for the Bantams. Bants offense was strong with 401 total yards and had 27 first downs. Bants QB Zander Zebrowski was 27 of 32 though the air (with no INTs) for 304 yards and a TD. Soph DE Jordan Atkinson had 2 TFL, 2 sacks, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery for the Bants. Hartford State travels to the north country to face the Panthers in Middlebury as they seek revenge for their loss in 2023. 2024 First Half Grade: A

2). Wesleyan Cardinals (Record: 4-1; Last Week Rank: 2): Wesleyan stays in our #2 spot with an OT win against a competitive Colby team. The Wesleyan defense continues to play very well and is tops in the NESCAC in several key categories including yards allowed, rushing defense (32nd nationally), TDs allowed, opponents 3rd down % (35th nationally), defensive first downs allowed (17th nationally), and opponents first downs. WR Chase Wilson had another strong game for Wes. On the defensive side of the ball, LB Jake Edwards returned a fumble for the game winning TD; the second defensive TD in 2 weeks for the Cards. P/K Gage Hammond kicked 3 FGs, averaged 44 yards a punt, and was strong on kick-offs. Officiating on Saturday was once again very suspect. We saw something we had never seen before on a kick-off; an actual "do-over" called for by the officials. Wes goes on the road this week to face the Polars in Brunswick. 2024 First Half Grade: B+

3). Middlebury (Record: 4-1; Last Week Rank: 3): Middlebury beats Williams in OT at home and keeps their hopes of a repeat NESCAC Championship alive. Game was back and forth all-day and was close as expected. FY RB Connor McClellan starred for the Pants with 95 yards on the ground and 3 TDs including the game winner. DB Charlie Ozolin had 2 INTs for Middlebury. MID faces Hartford State this week in a game that will have an impact on the 2024 NESCAC Championship race. 2024 First Half Grade: B+

4). Williams Purple Cows (Record: 3-2; Last Week Rank: 4): Hard luck loss on the road at Middlebury in a game that they could have won. K Ivan Shuran (5 FGs) and RB Mario Fischetti (131 yards rushing and 1 TD) starred on offense for the Purple Cows. Turnovers and inopportune penalties hurt Williams. LB Calvin Pedatella had 14 tackles for Williams. Another 200+ yard game on the ground for the Ephs. Williams hosts UBates this week in Williamstown. 2024 First Half Grade: B

5). Tufts Jumbo's (Record: 3-2; Last Week Rank: 5): Tufts scores 24 unanswered points beating the Frisky Kitties in Lewiston. Tufts ran for over 200 yards on the day including 4 rushing TDs on 43 rushing attempts (more rushing attempts than run heavy UBates). RB Christian Shapiro had 107 yards rushing and 3 TDs for the Jumbo's. Tufts offense was 6 of 10 on 3rd downs. This week Tufts hosts Hamilton in Medford. 2024 First Half Grade: B

6). Colby Mules (Record: 1-4; Last Week Rank: 6): The Mules, the best below .500 team in the league, nearly pulled off the upset in Middletown. Game against Wesleyan went into overtime for the 2nd year in a row and, like last year, the home team prevailed. Colby's offense only mustered one 1 TD on the day as they registered a paltry 9 first downs, 23 minutes of possession time, and 118 yards of total offense. Colby also played undisciplined football as they were flagged 9 times for 102 yards. Like the Lord Mammoths, Colby plays decent defense but can be offensively challenged at times. LB Julian Young led the Colby defense with 15 tackles, 1.5 TFL and 1.5 sacks. The Mules host the Lord Mammoths this week in Waterville in a battle of second division NESCAC teams. 2024 First Half Grade: C

7). Bowdoin Polar Bears (Record: 2-3; Last Week Rank: 8):  Bowdoin beats the Lord Mammoths on the road in Amherst in a mild upset. It was the first win for the Polars in Amherst since 2005. It was also their largest margin of victory over the Lord Mammoths since 1992. The Polars bucked a recent trend holding onto a large half-time lead (21-0 at the half) and playing tough in the 2nd half for the win. The story of the day was the Bowdoin defense. The defense scored for the fourth straight week, and it was the third straight week with a TD. Bowdoin had 7 sacks, held the Lord Mammoths to 1 yard rushing, and 4 of 15 on 3rd downs. Bowdoin hosts Wesleyan this week in Brunswick. 2024 First Half Grade: C

8). Amherst Lord Mammoths (Record: 2-3; Last Week Rank: 7): The Lord Mammoths suffered their first loss to Bowdoin in a long time and lost their 3rd straight game. The offense is struggling and had only 1 net rushing yard (on 24 attempts), 179 total yards, an interception, and allowed 7 sacks. The Lord Mammoths are last in total offense (nationally they are ranked 231st out of 239 teams), last in rushing with 38 yards per game (237th nationally), they've thrown the most interceptions in the NESCAC, and they are 9th in scoring offense. Doesn't get any easier for them this week as they face Colby on the road. 2024 First Half Grade: C-

9). University of Bates Bobcats (Lewiston Campus) (Record: 1-4; Last Week Rank: 9): Another loss for the Frisky Kitties, this time to a Tufts team that possibly saved their best game of the year for UBates. Tufts ran the ball well (211 yards) as RB Christian Shapiro ran for over 100 yards and three scores and RB Michael Berlutti was tossed an efficient 15 for 21 and a TD. RB Ryan Lynskey rushed for 74 yards and a league leading 6th TD for UBates. The two UBates QBs combined to go 5 for 14 for 117 yards. UBates travels to Williamstown to face the Ephs this week on the road. 2024 First Half Grade: C

10). Hamilton Continentals (Record: 0-5; Last Week Rank: 10): The Continentals drop their 5th game of 2024 with a loss to Hartford State. Hamilton led this game 7-0 before the Bants rattled off 31 straight points for the win. Hamilton only had 11 first downs and 165 total yards on the day. 3 turnovers and 3 sacks did not help the Conts. This week, Hamilton travels to Medford to face the Jumbo's. 2024 First Half Grade: D

NESCACMAN Offensive Player(s) of the Week: Zander Zebrowski, Hartford State/Connor McClellan, Middlebury/Christian Shapiro, Tufts

NESCACMAN Defensive Player(s) of the Week: LB Julian Young, Colby/Koy Price, Bowdoin/Jake Edwards, Wesleyan/ Charlie Ozolin, Middlebury

NESCACMAN Special Teams Player(s) of the Week: Gage Hammond, Wesleyan/Ivan Shuran, Williams

NESCACMAN 2024 First Half Offensive Player(s) of the Year: Zander Zebrowski, Hartford State

NESCACMAN 2024 First Half Defensive Player(s) of the Year: Koy Price, Bowdoin

NESCACMAN 2024 First Half Special Teams Player(s) of the Year: Vaughn Seelicke, Tufts/Tighe Hoey, Hamilton

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[MapleBBQChicken]

It's starting to feel like a very similar situation to last year, as a one-loss but improving Panther team faces a Bantam squad that has yet to play a close game. And this year it's in Vermont.

We want Trinity.

Be careful what you ask for, Maple...

I understand the urge to compare the two seasons, but these are different teams than a year ago. While Trinity is not quite the offensive juggernaut that they were last year, the offense seems to have more answers. Part of that is Zebrowski's ability to run, but he's also been excellent when the primary receiver is covered and finding secondary options and check-downs as evidence with his near 78% completion percentage. While he has been outstanding, and easily the frontrunner for OPY, the biggest strength of the Trinity offense is actually their receiving corp. Clapp is a mismatch for any corner in this league and cannot be covered 1 on 1. O'Brien's speed can turn any reception into a touchdown. Add in Laughlin and Roche and there are high-quality options available on every passing down. Consider what a luxury it is to have a first team All NESCAC tailback in Tyler DiNapoli and yet he is averaging just 12 carries per game.

I don't think the Panthers match-up well defensively against Trin as they have particularly struggled in pass defense where they rank 8th in the league allowing 230 yards per game. That's not great when you consider three of their games have been against offensively challenged teams in Amherst, Colby, and Bowdoin. The Midd defense does lead the league with 9 interceptions, but Zebrowski has thrown exactly zero ints this season so I'm not particularly worried about that.

As for Trinity's defense it has been well documented that the Bants graduated 9 starters last year, but so many of the guys who've stepped into those roles are only juniors or sophomores. This may account for some of their slow starts this season. In each of the past three games Trin has given up points on their opponent's opening drive and in each of those games they have trailed into the second quarter. Despite that, they have adjusted well and are either 1st or 2nd in nearly every statistical defensive category. That's a scary prospect for the rest of the NESCAC to have such a young squad be one of the top two units in the league.

Going into the Trinity-Middlebury game last year the Bantams were ranked 1st in both offense and defense. This year they are 1st in offense and 2nd in defense (1 yard per game behind Wes). Meanwhile the Panthers were ranked 4th in offense and 2nd in defense a year ago, but are currently 5th in offense and 8 in defense.

The trip to Vermont can be a tough one, but the Bantams have won 3 of their last 4 games at Middlebury. Add in a year's worth of resentment for the Panthers, who are the only team to best Trinity over the past two and a half seasons, and I think you'll see a hyper-focused Bantam squad on a mission to avenge the last second loss a year ago.

Trin9-0: I don't necessarily disagree with your analysis, and no doubt that the Panthers are the underdog this weekend. But while I am generally a believer in objective stats and analytics, sometimes they just get it wrong. For example, last year every model out there would have picked Trinity over Middlebury in a not particularly close game. And no model could have seen Bates winning in Middletown a few weeks ago. I'm also interested to see what Coach Mandigo cooks up on defense after a very successful gameplan last time around. Excited to see it all unfold on Saturday, and it looks like we'll have beautiful weather if you're making the trip up.

[MapleBBQChicken]

Amherst problems are all in admissions. This coupled with the fact that they are going after recruits who are trying to make Ivy League or other D1 rosters. A recruit if he does not make an ivy roster then looks at that landscape. If a High School player is talented and wants to win and play in solid program they would consider Trinity if Trinity has there recruits for the year then they start to look at Middlebury , Williams and so on. Amherst is constantly getting the bottom feeders in athletic recruitment. I applaud them for staying with the high academic standards but it is definitely a trade off. I would think it is hard to get a recruit to give up a large portion of their Colleiate career to play .500 ball at best with no chance of winning.

Well said Charlie!

I generally agree with this take, but the one piece I don't get here is how unbalanced Amherst's talent has been between offense and defense. Issues like stricter admissions, flawed recruiting strategies such as overly targeting Ivy League hopefuls, and a lack of winning in recent years all don't (at least in my mind) impact recruiting offense any more heavily than they do recruiting defense. However, as has been noted by other posters, Amherst's struggles have been very concentrated on the offensive side of the ball.

NM, Charlie, and others -- any thoughts on what the rest of the story might be here?

[Nescacman]

It's starting to feel like a very similar situation to last year, as a one-loss but improving Panther team faces a Bantam squad that has yet to play a close game. And this year it's in Vermont.

We want Trinity.

Be careful what you ask for, Maple...

I understand the urge to compare the two seasons, but these are different teams than a year ago. While Trinity is not quite the offensive juggernaut that they were last year, the offense seems to have more answers. Part of that is Zebrowski's ability to run, but he's also been excellent when the primary receiver is covered and finding secondary options and check-downs as evidence with his near 78% completion percentage. While he has been outstanding, and easily the frontrunner for OPY, the biggest strength of the Trinity offense is actually their receiving corp. Clapp is a mismatch for any corner in this league and cannot be covered 1 on 1. O'Brien's speed can turn any reception into a touchdown. Add in Laughlin and Roche and there are high-quality options available on every passing down. Consider what a luxury it is to have a first team All NESCAC tailback in Tyler DiNapoli and yet he is averaging just 12 carries per game.

I don't think the Panthers match-up well defensively against Trin as they have particularly struggled in pass defense where they rank 8th in the league allowing 230 yards per game. That's not great when you consider three of their games have been against offensively challenged teams in Amherst, Colby, and Bowdoin. The Midd defense does lead the league with 9 interceptions, but Zebrowski has thrown exactly zero ints this season so I'm not particularly worried about that.

As for Trinity's defense it has been well documented that the Bants graduated 9 starters last year, but so many of the guys who've stepped into those roles are only juniors or sophomores. This may account for some of their slow starts this season. In each of the past three games Trin has given up points on their opponent's opening drive and in each of those games they have trailed into the second quarter. Despite that, they have adjusted well and are either 1st or 2nd in nearly every statistical defensive category. That's a scary prospect for the rest of the NESCAC to have such a young squad be one of the top two units in the league.

Going into the Trinity-Middlebury game last year the Bantams were ranked 1st in both offense and defense. This year they are 1st in offense and 2nd in defense (1 yard per game behind Wes). Meanwhile the Panthers were ranked 4th in offense and 2nd in defense a year ago, but are currently 5th in offense and 8 in defense.

The trip to Vermont can be a tough one, but the Bantams have won 3 of their last 4 games at Middlebury. Add in a year's worth of resentment for the Panthers, who are the only team to best Trinity over the past two and a half seasons, and I think you'll see a hyper-focused Bantam squad on a mission to avenge the last second loss a year ago. The SP+ computer model by ESPN's Bill Connelly agrees:

Trinity 33.6, Middlebury 15.1

Here's the rest of the NESCAC projections for week 6:

Amherst 17.1, Colby 17.0
Tufts 37.1, Hamilton 7.0
Wesleyan 28.1, Bowdoin 15.4
Williams 35.6, Bates 10.0

Here's how the model ranks the NESCAC nationally:
22. Trinity
79. Tufts
86. Wesleyan
89. Middlebury
101. Williams
152. Bowdoin
156. Amherst
172. Colby
198. Bates
199. Hamilton

Hs9-o...hate when we agree:

Early line on our GOTW: Hartford State -14

Any of the Panther faithful looking for some action? We'll take Zander and give the points....

BTW, and we know you are tracking this...we think we are at least one game ahead of the computer at 23-2...and find it hard to believe they have Tufts ahead of Wes in their rankings. We think their model looks at margin of victory over common opponents (and weights that heavier than our model). However, our model places a higher weight on head-to-wins, which we think is more relevant.

[Nescacman]

Amherst problems are all in admissions. This coupled with the fact that they are going after recruits who are trying to make Ivy League or other D1 rosters. A recruit if he does not make an ivy roster then looks at that landscape. If a High School player is talented and wants to win and play in solid program they would consider Trinity if Trinity has there recruits for the year then they start to look at Middlebury , Williams and so on. Amherst is constantly getting the bottom feeders in athletic recruitment. I applaud them for staying with the high academic standards but it is definitely a trade off. I would think it is hard to get a recruit to give up a large portion of their Colleiate career to play .500 ball at best with no chance of winning.

Well said Charlie!

I generally agree with this take, but the one piece I don't get here is how unbalanced Amherst's talent has been between offense and defense. Issues like stricter admissions, flawed recruiting strategies such as overly targeting Ivy League hopefuls, and a lack of winning in recent years all don't (at least in my mind) impact recruiting offense any more heavily than they do recruiting defense. However, as has been noted by other posters, Amherst's struggles have been very concentrated on the offensive side of the ball.

NM, Charlie, and others -- any thoughts on what the rest of the story might be here?

Maple....very simple answer...the Amherst Admissions Department only likes defensive players. They are especially averse to Quarterbacks.

[Trin9-0]

BTW, and we know you are tracking this...we think we are at least one game ahead of the computer at 23-2...and find it hard to believe they have Tufts ahead of Wes in their rankings. We think their model looks at margin of victory over common opponents (and weights that heavier than our model). However, our model places a higher weight on head-to-wins, which we think is more relevant.

I won't claim to be an expert as it relates to the SP+ model but it's far more complex than simple margin of victory. You can read all about the basic methodology which was published a few year back in this article. The basic gist is that it measures what college football teams can most consistently do to win games and focuses on five core concepts: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers.

As you can see the computer is very high on Trinity and there's actually relatively little difference in how it views its second tier of the NESCAC so I wouldn't get too caught up in it.
                           

SP+  Rank  Percentile  Offensive SP+  Rank  Defensive SP+  Rank  Last Week  Change  TRINITY 27.0 21 92.3% 37.9 41 10.9 14 21 0 TUFTS 8.6 78 67.5% 29.2 90 20.6 83 88 10 WESLEYAN 7.3 85 64.9% 23.6 136 16.3 46 84 -1 MIDDLEBURY 6.0 88 62.4% 27.3 106 21.3 88 93 5 WILLIAMS 4.1 100 58.5% 25.1 126 21.0 86 97 -3 BOWDOIN -7.9 151 33.7% 19.6 162 27.5 135 171 20 AMHERST -8.8 155 31.9% 10.6 218 19.5 72 144 -11 COLBY -11.5 171 27.1% 13.3 204 24.8 113 166 -5 BATES -18.9 197 15.8% 13.0 206 32.0 175 190 -7 HAMILTON -19.0 198 15.7% 9.7 223 28.7 146 198 0

I'm more of a visual learner so here's what the NESCAC SP+ looks like graphed:
You cannot view this attachment.
Nescacman, do you actually have a "model" or are you just making picks based on your interpretation of the games you've watched combined with stats from nescac.com?

[NescacNewbie]

@Trin9-0,
That is pretty darn impressive!

[Nescacman]

BTW, and we know you are tracking this...we think we are at least one game ahead of the computer at 23-2...and find it hard to believe they have Tufts ahead of Wes in their rankings. We think their model looks at margin of victory over common opponents (and weights that heavier than our model). However, our model places a higher weight on head-to-wins, which we think is more relevant.

I won't claim to be an expert as it relates to the SP+ model but it's far more complex than simple margin of victory. You can read all about the basic methodology which was published a few year back in this article. The basic gist is that it measures what college football teams can most consistently do to win games and focuses on five core concepts: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers.

As you can see the computer is very high on Trinity and there's actually relatively little difference in how it views its second tier of the NESCAC so I wouldn't get too caught up in it.
                           

SP+  Rank  Percentile  Offensive SP+  Rank  Defensive SP+  Rank  Last Week  Change  TRINITY 27.0 21 92.3% 37.9 41 10.9 14 21 0 TUFTS 8.6 78 67.5% 29.2 90 20.6 83 88 10 WESLEYAN 7.3 85 64.9% 23.6 136 16.3 46 84 -1 MIDDLEBURY 6.0 88 62.4% 27.3 106 21.3 88 93 5 WILLIAMS 4.1 100 58.5% 25.1 126 21.0 86 97 -3 BOWDOIN -7.9 151 33.7% 19.6 162 27.5 135 171 20 AMHERST -8.8 155 31.9% 10.6 218 19.5 72 144 -11 COLBY -11.5 171 27.1% 13.3 204 24.8 113 166 -5 BATES -18.9 197 15.8% 13.0 206 32.0 175 190 -7 HAMILTON -19.0 198 15.7% 9.7 223 28.7 146 198 0

I'm more of a visual learner so here's what the NESCAC SP+ looks like graphed:
You cannot view this attachment.
Nescacman, do you actually have a "model" or are you just making picks based on your interpretation of the games you've watched combined with stats from nescac.com?

Hs9-o, we've read the methodology and understand it. Apparently, THE NESCACMAN model is working just a bit better this year, at least so far.

We're putting our $$$ where our mouth is this week Hs9-o so hoping the Bants win by 14+ (or lose outright which is highly unlikely)...