FB: New England Small College Athletic Conference

[Trin9-0]

Hs9-o, we've read the methodology and understand it. Apparently, THE NESCACMAN model is working just a bit better this year, at least so far.

We're putting our $$$ where our mouth is this week Hs9-o so hoping the Bants win by 14+ (or lose outright which is highly unlikely)...

You're currently two games up on the computer for the year. This season the SP+ model has missed three games which you picked correctly. It had Middlebury over Wesleyan in Week 1, Bowdoin over Middlebury in Week 2 and Amherst over Bowdoin last week. The computer correctly called Amherst over Bates in Week 1 which you got wrong and both understandably whiffed on the Bates win over Wesleyan in Week 3.

However, since the SP+ model began including D3 teams in it's projections starting with Week 2 of the NESCAC season in 2021 it has gone 120-34 picking NESCAC games (.779 winning percentage). *Note, this does not include the 2021 Tufts vs Middlebury game because the model produced an identical point projection of 17.9 for both teams (Tufts won 34-27).

Picking the same games the Nescacman "model" has gone 112-42 (.727 winning percentage).


Interestingly, the SP+ model has gone 30-1 picking Trinity games: (.968). What was the lone game it missed? Last year's 20-15 upset loss at home to Middlebury (it projected Trinity 38.7, Middlebury 9.6).

[Nescacman]

Hs9-o, we've read the methodology and understand it. Apparently, THE NESCACMAN model is working just a bit better this year, at least so far.

We're putting our $$$ where our mouth is this week Hs9-o so hoping the Bants win by 14+ (or lose outright which is highly unlikely)...

You're currently two games up on the computer for the year. This season the SP+ model has missed three games which you picked correctly. It had Middlebury over Wesleyan in Week 1, Bowdoin over Middlebury in Week 2 and Amherst over Bowdoin last week. The computer correctly called Amherst over Bates in Week 1 which you got wrong and both understandably whiffed on the Bates win over Wesleyan in Week 3.

However, since the SP+ model began including D3 teams in it's projections starting with Week 2 of the NESCAC season in 2021 it has gone 120-34 picking NESCAC games (.779 winning percentage). *Note, this does not include the 2021 Tufts vs Middlebury game because the model produced an identical point projection of 17.9 for both teams (Tufts won 34-27).

Picking the same games the Nescacman "model" has gone 112-42 (.727 winning percentage).


Interestingly, the SP+ model has gone 30-1 picking Trinity games: (.968). What was the lone game it missed? Last year's 20-15 upset loss at home to Middlebury (it projected Trinity 38.7, Middlebury 9.6).

Makes sense since we went through a major model "revision" this past off-season...appreciate the analysis Hs8-1...knew you had the numbers handy. Always happy to have you part of the flock...#rollcards

[Charlie]

Amherst recruiting failures is a direct result of admissions. However having said that a program can turn itself around in no time. I understand that this is Division 3 football. If you go around the league you will see a number off players who have used the transfer portal and are on NESCAC rosters. There is no reason Amherst cannot utilize this to find a QB or fill some skilled positions. There are so many players out there moving around because lack of playing time or stacked roster positions on teams.I think Amherst would bode well if they looked at some of the last year recruit classes and try to get a QB off the portal.I think they would be hard pressed to find a player transferring from an IVY roster. I am sure though there are many that are on D2 or D1 rosters even walk-ons who would give you an added boost at the skilled positions.This amazes me how teams like Trinity and to a smaller extent Wesleyan and Middlebury have such great talent from there number 1 to their third string players. This is why they are at the top of the league year in and year out. The Coaches have tools now they can utilize to help there programs instead of pointing blame at the admissions. I think HC Mills can use this to his advantage to jump start his program again. I am also a fan of having Amherst boost there football program so that the NESCAC is not as top heavy.

[Nescacman]

Amherst recruiting failures is a direct result of admissions. However having said that a program can turn itself around in no time. I understand that this is Division 3 football. If you go around the league you will see a number off players who have used the transfer portal and are on NESCAC rosters. There is no reason Amherst cannot utilize this to find a QB or fill some skilled positions. There are so many players out there moving around because lack of playing time or stacked roster positions on teams.I think Amherst would bode well if they looked at some of the last year recruit classes and try to get a QB off the portal.I think they would be hard pressed to find a player transferring from an IVY roster. I am sure though there are many that are on D2 or D1 rosters even walk-ons who would give you an added boost at the skilled positions.This amazes me how teams like Trinity and to a smaller extent Wesleyan and Middlebury have such great talent from there number 1 to their third string players. This is why they are at the top of the league year in and year out. The Coaches have tools now they can utilize to help there programs instead of pointing blame at the admissions. I think HC Mills can use this to his advantage to jump start his program again. I am also a fan of having Amherst boost there football program so that the NESCAC is not as top heavy.

Charlie, you forgot to mention Amherst using NIL $$$ to attract those skill players...portal + NIL$$$=Lord Mammoth NESCAC Championship

We'll be sure to ask Coach Mills about the portal and NIL $$$ when we interview him for the 9 Weeks NESCAC podcast this week...

[muleshoe]

Amherst recruiting failures is a direct result of admissions. However having said that a program can turn itself around in no time. I understand that this is Division 3 football. If you go around the league you will see a number off players who have used the transfer portal and are on NESCAC rosters. There is no reason Amherst cannot utilize this to find a QB or fill some skilled positions. There are so many players out there moving around because lack of playing time or stacked roster positions on teams.I think Amherst would bode well if they looked at some of the last year recruit classes and try to get a QB off the portal.I think they would be hard pressed to find a player transferring from an IVY roster. I am sure though there are many that are on D2 or D1 rosters even walk-ons who would give you an added boost at the skilled positions.This amazes me how teams like Trinity and to a smaller extent Wesleyan and Middlebury have such great talent from there number 1 to their third string players. This is why they are at the top of the league year in and year out. The Coaches have tools now they can utilize to help there programs instead of pointing blame at the admissions. I think HC Mills can use this to his advantage to jump start his program again. I am also a fan of having Amherst boost there football program so that the NESCAC is not as top heavy.

Transferring into the NESCAC (or any D3 school) from a higher division has always been an option without penalty. Middlebury's landed 2 QBs in the past 10-15 years who've been very successful, McCallum Foote (Brown) and Jared Lebowitz (UNLV?). Jeff Katz was a standout DE/OLB for Amherst 2009-2011 after transferring from Lafayette. I can't think of too many others who have transferred into the league and seen all-league type of success. Usually they're transferring for a reason.

What will be more interesting is seeing how many more players transfer up to the FCS/FBS level after a solid year or two in the NESCAC with the new system. I'd bet it stays at the 1-2 per year we've seen recently but only time will tell.

[nescac1]

Speaking of transfers, Richie Hoskins, who played one year at Middlebury, is a team captain who recently scored a TD for Vanderbilt: https://vucommodores.com/roster/richie-hoskins/.  Pretty cool!  I'm sure Midd would love to have him on the roster right now ...

Jaden Richardson has not made much of an impact at all at USC; hard though to make an impact at a loaded position at one of the biggest football programs in the country.  Maybe a lesson though not to go for the most prestigious possible football destination if you actually hope to see the field. 

I would be surprised if we see any NESCAC to D1 transfers this year.  Most of the guys who have D1 talent and measurables will be out of eligibility, and nearly all of the leading candidates for POTY (both on offense and defense) in the conference are likewise seniors.  It's a particularly great year for kickers and punters in NESCAC, which is the position most likely to make an impact at a higher level (Steve Hauschka!) but again, the biggest names are seniors I believe.  I can't think of any underclassmen who seem like obvious D1 candidates in the league this year. 

[Charlie]

If Amherst could get a QB who say red shirted as a D1 or D2 school his Freshman year start of sophomore year is still behind upper classman then he would be great canidate for NESCAC. I can see this happening and would already have had practices at the College level and would be ready to step in. If HC Mills wants to turn his program around I truly think start at this level for an impact QB.

In watching the successful teams like Trinity very rarely do they start freshman let alone Sophomores. It would take too long for Mills to see this development. If the HS recruit does not pan out then back to drawing board. I feel like this is what is happening to there football program and continues to happen. The mystique and luster for past championships at Amherst has faded.

Another factor that I see is dedication to the sport of football. I was fortunate to watch Amherst play Trinity last year. The sheer player size disparity between the two schools was incredible.Trinity players and Coaches seem all in when it comes to weight room and overall dedication to the sport. I know this is a generality but everything starts at the top and flows down. The culture at Amherst must change for them to start winning again.I dont think Mills is a bad coach but beleive he is resting on laurels of past accomplishments and school prestige then football operations.

[Trin9-0]

Middlebury's landed 2 QBs in the past 10-15 years who've been very successful, McCallum Foote (Brown) and Jared Lebowitz (UNLV?). Jeff Katz was a standout DE/OLB for Amherst 2009-2011 after transferring from Lafayette. I can't think of too many others who have transferred into the league and seen all-league type of success. Usually they're transferring for a reason.

I can only recall two examples of Trinity guys who transferred in and went on to earn All NESCAC accolades and both are from about two decades ago. Chris Balestrino who made first team OL in 2004 transferred from UNH. More notably, from 2004-'06 Gennaro Leo was a 3x All NESCAC selection (2x first team) at RB and was a transfer from Colgate.

[Nescacman]

Speaking of transfers, Richie Hoskins, who played one year at Middlebury, is a team captain who recently scored a TD for Vanderbilt: https://vucommodores.com/roster/richie-hoskins/.  Pretty cool!  I'm sure Midd would love to have him on the roster right now ...

Jaden Richardson has not made much of an impact at all at USC; hard though to make an impact at a loaded position at one of the biggest football programs in the country.  Maybe a lesson though not to go for the most prestigious possible football destination if you actually hope to see the field. 

I would be surprised if we see any NESCAC to D1 transfers this year.  Most of the guys who have D1 talent and measurables will be out of eligibility, and nearly all of the leading candidates for POTY (both on offense and defense) in the conference are likewise seniors.  It's a particularly great year for kickers and punters in NESCAC, which is the position most likely to make an impact at a higher level (Steve Hauschka!) but again, the biggest names are seniors I believe.  I can't think of any underclassmen who seem like obvious D1 candidates in the league this year. 

Great to see Phil Lutz (Delaware) and Logan Tomlinson (UNH) getting it done in the CAA this year. Logan leads the CAA in receptions and Lutz is second in the CAA in TD receptions and yards receiving. Very impressive (I bet Tufts and Wes wish they had those guys this year). Congratulations to both of them and wishing them success the rest of the way this year.

[Brady12]

Looking at prior posts regarding transferring. Does anyone have any stats on kids being 1 and done. Meaning they don't get any playing time as a freshman (after being the man in highschool) and just decide to "retire." 

I am relatively new to watching D3 football but when I see a kid wait years to play (Trinity QB) I am half in awe and half wondering if he wanted to switch positions. 

[MapleBBQChicken]

I don't think transfers are a realistic way to turn around a NESCAC football program, especially in the context of admissions being strict on athletes.

For one, small private colleges are extremely hesitant to accept transfer students that require financial aid. Considering Amherst's $70k sticker price (and comparable ones at most of the other schools), I imagine most incoming football players would need some type of aid.

Second, it is a NESCAC recruiting guideline that the number of roster spots you have for admissions support is structured by class. What this means is that you would need an open spot in the class year that a transfer is joining. For example, if a kid is transferring in as a sophomore, then you either need to have brought in less than the maximum number of players the previous year or had one of your recruits quit after his freshman year. Of course, joining the team as a walk-on would negate this issue, but then the transfer student needs to get into the school academically, which is extremely difficult at most NESCAC institutions.

Between these two things, basing the development of a program on transfers is completely unsustainable. Sure, there have been some successful transfers into the NESCAC in recent memory, but they are relatively few and far between. I also would be willing to bet that some of them either didn't need financial aid, were superstar students, or both.

[NescacNewbie]

Btw. Nescac tuition/room/board prices are $82-85K now.

[MapleBBQChicken]

Btw. Nescac tuition/room/board prices are $82-85K now.

Indeed. I believe the $70k number (which was just the result of a quick google search) is tuition only. Probably getting close to $90k if you throw in room/board and a meal plan.

[Charlie]

I am not saying the transfer portal is the recruitment answer. One of the posters mentioned the fact that Amherst has been weak at the QB position for close to a decade. All I am saying if you can get a Qb or fill a position talent then you can go back to traditional recruiting. Amherst has a great of swing and misses in that arena as well. All I am saying is a place to start to find a QB at minimum.

[Nescacman]

Looking at prior posts regarding transferring. Does anyone have any stats on kids being 1 and done. Meaning they don't get any playing time as a freshman (after being the man in highschool) and just decide to "retire." 

I am relatively new to watching D3 football but when I see a kid wait years to play (Trinity QB) I am half in awe and half wondering if he wanted to switch positions. 

Please watch the "9 Weeks NESCAC-Episode 5" Podcast where we interviewed Zander Zebrowski, the Bantams signal caller and asked him that question. Zander came to Hartford as a QB and had no thoughts of changing positions. He patiently waited his turn and his patience appears to be working out pretty well for him (and the Bants faithful) so far. BTW, we also learned that his Dad played QB for Colgate so pretty good pedigree as well.