WBB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[gacbacker]

The Gusties have to squeak by St. Olaf today in Northfield 71-66.

Question: How do you force 24 turnovers and shoot 26 more free throws than your opponent and still be in position to possibly lose the basketball game?

Answer: Give up WIDE OPEN three point shots the entire game. I didn't see a minute of the game, but I'm guessing the Oles' success from long range today (10-24) had to do with the zone defense the Gusties have fallen in love with recently.

Vadnais, by the way, has locked up the MVP in my opinion with her past two performances: 25 pts, 8-17fg, 7 rebounds, 3 assists vs. Concordia; 23 pts, 8-17fg, 4 rebounds, 4 steals vs. St. Olaf.

[gacunk]

Gac"debunker" - You are way off on your "Answer". First of all, Erdahl and Oja were not wide open all game. The first three of Oja's 3's WERE wide open in the first 14 minutes of the game. She was the top scorer in the first half for the Ole's with 9. At half time an adjustment was made and during the second half the only wide open 3's taken were by Erdahl in the last two minutes of the game when she threw up four threes, each from 6 to 10 feet beyond the arc. In the second half, the Gac defense was in the face of both Erdahl and Oja. Erdahl has one of the fastest releases I've seen in a long time. She is almost impossible to stop as her shots were just a continuous motion from receiving the ball. For the year, Jamie Erdahl's 3 point percentage has been .265 - this game she shot .40. Kelsie Oja had a .273 average and this game shot .46. They both were hot this game!!! Fan's were heard to say" How did she get that off and how did it ever go in? In particular, this was true of Erdahl whose quick release and an arc that looked like it could hit the ceiling were unbelievable. Both of these players deserve credit for an exceptional game.

Now, about defense. GAC has at least 6 different defenses they can use during a game. Two of them are a form of ZONE defense. One of the assistants on the bench, as part of their duties, keeps track of the type of defense being used at any time during the game to assist coaches in making  strategic adjustments.

The ZONE was used by GAC for 4 minutes 38 seconds in the game with the OLE's.

Reporting what one observes at a game is one thing - making judgements based on pure statistics and heresay and then making comment toward the coaching is poor judgement. Especially when you are supposed to be a Gac"backer".

[gacbacker]

gacunk- A little defensive aren't you? Just because I'm a gacbacker, doesn't mean I can't be objective. Maybe its the journalist in me.

My "judgments" were based on words spoken by the St. Olaf webcast announcer, who said over and over again that St. Olaf players were "left wide open for three" In past games the Gusties have had a tendency to leave players open for three when they play zone. It's a pretty simple connection. It's not often that a player finds themselves wide open on the perimeter when a team is playing man to man defense. By the way I didn't know that Pat Coleman had made it a rule that you have to be in attendance at a game in order to post here. My mistake.

You said that some of Erdahl's three's were "six to ten feet beyond the arch" I, of course, wasn't at the game, but I have a feeling that this comment might fall under the catagory of biggest exaggeration of the year. Ten feet beyond the arch and you're getting close to the halfcourt line.

Anyway you want to spin it, the reason St. Olaf was in the game with a chance to win was because they scored 30 points from beyond the arch. You have to admit that when you force 24 turnovers, shoot 26 more free throws than the other team, and the other team doesn't shoot its first free throw until there are less than two minutes left in the game, that you should win handily.

That was the point of my post, not to make a comment "toward the coaching" which is apparently what you decided to dig out of it.

[Collegeville Magic]

LA- I would venture a guess that if Gustafson resurfaces in the conference, Hamline might be the place.  That's based on nothing other than how much I enjoy making fun of their coaching staff for trying to get extra eligibility out of various assorted characters in the past few years.

Good luck to everybody in sorting out the conference playoff positions this week, I'll be cheering from afar for my Blazers!

[Willy Wonka]

Vadnais, by the way, has locked up the MVP in my opinion with her past two performances: 25 pts, 8-17fg, 7 rebounds, 3 assists vs. Concordia; 23 pts, 8-17fg, 4 rebounds, 4 steals vs. St. Olaf.

Fairly bold statement, gacbacker. Have you seen what Katch has done recently?

15 points, 7-11 FG, 9 boards, 8 assists, 6 steals and 1 block against Auggie Tech.
She then went for 23 and 11 in a close win over St. Kates on Saturday, though the box score still isn't available for the rest of her stat stuffers.

On the heels of holding Vadnais to 2-11 and making her a nonfactor the ENTIRE game — which GAC still won — I'm not sure I can agree with your assessment. Plus, the Tommies are still a game ahead of the Gusties in the league standings.

If you want a pure scorer, Vadnais is the easy choice. If you want the most complete player on the "better" team, I'm fairly certain you have to go with Katch. It will be interesting to see how the league coaches view the award.

For What It's Worth

• Katch is 10th in scoring, 9th in rebounding, 1st in assists, 2nd in steals, 6th in blocks and 4th in assist-to-turnover ratio.
• Vadnais is 1st in scoring, 3rd in FT percentage and tied for 3rd in steals.

[gacbacker]

WW- If the Tommies lose to Concordia or St. Ben's or both, and the Gusties win out, which would put them in a tie or ahead of the Tommies, how would that change your opinion?

I just think the coaches are inclined to give it to Vadnais, being that she won the award last year and has followed that up by leading the conference in scoring this year. I'd be willing to bet that across college basketball, regardless of the division, a reigning MVP who then leads his/her conference in scoring the next year, wins the MVP again at least 90% of the time.

It's a pretty safe bet don't you think?

[Willy Wonka]

I'll get to this tonight, just in case anyone else wants to chime in. Otherwise, we might as well have had this conversation at the UST game

[Willy Wonka]

gacbacker - Did you just get the same email I got? Looks like your "proof" that Vadnais had locked up the MVP got trumped by Katch's performance last week. Could this be some MVP foreshadowing?

University of St. Thomas junior forward Jessica Katch (Urbandale, Iowa/Dowling Catholic) averaged 19.0 ppg, 10.0 rpg, 5.0 assists and 5.0 steals and went over 500 career rebounds in leading the second-place Tommies to a pair of road wins in a 2-0 week. Katch played just 22 minutes in a 27-point win at Augsburg but made a run at a quadruple double with 15 points, nine rebounds, eight assists and six steals. In Saturday's 70-67 win at St. Catherine, Katch had 23 points, 11 rebounds and four steals. She scored nine points in a game-closing 29-14 run over the last 15:03. Katch is the lone MIAC player to rank in the top 10 of conference stats in points, rebounds, steals, assists and blocks. Stats for the Week: 16-of-35 FG, 4-7 3FG, 2-5 FT, 38 points, 20 rebounds, 10 assists, 10 steals, 3 turnovers, 2 blocks

[Willy Wonka]

I just think the coaches are inclined to give it to Vadnais, being that she won the award last year and has followed that up by leading the conference in scoring this year. I'd be willing to bet that across college basketball, regardless of the division, a reigning MVP who then leads his/her conference in scoring the next year, wins the MVP again at least 90% of the time.

It's a pretty safe bet don't you think?

If I were a betting man, I'd be with you. Thankfully, I'm not...or TI would have been my doom long ago

On the surface, I have no problem with your premise. However, since scoring isn't the only part of basketball that's important, I hope you don't mind if I dig a little deeper.

Vadnais' current stats as compared to her MVP season of 2006-07
Scoring = down
Rebounds = down
Assists = down
3pt shooting percentage = down
FT percentage = down
Minutes = up
Shots = up
Team record = worse

Katch? Her numbers are up in every single one of those categories, some quite significantly.

Just to be clear, I'm not anti-Vadnais and will be cheering for the Gusties from now until I kick the bucket. I've also never met Katch, even though I feel like she should be paying me for heading her campaign department.

I just want to make sure any lazy coach with a ballot (and who reads this garbage) doesn't blindly write Vadnais' name down because she earned it last year — which she did. It remains far from a clear-cut decision this season.

To switch gears entirely...

Assuming the Bennies win out, who does CSB least want to see as the #4 seed when the season ends? Without looking at how the tiebreakers shake out, I think it could be either UST, GAC, CAR or the Cobbs. All but the Tommies have beaten them once, and UST gets its chance at revenge (and possible home court throughout the playoffs) to end the year.

There appears to be a good race for the #6 spot going on as well, even if none of the posters care about those teams

[gacbacker]

WW- I hear your argument regarding the comparison of stats from last year to this year.

I think another aspect that you have to look at is this: Where would Vadnais' and Katch's respective teams be this year if you took them out of the equation. The Gusties, as we know, have nobody else averaging in double figures. I think its possible that the Gusties are on the outside looking in as far as the playoffs go if Vadnais isn't on this team.

Katch on the other hand appears to have much more consistent support around her. Embree has been solid all year. Porter-Wrzos and Wirtz have had some nice games as well and are much more experienced that the crew surrounding Vadnais.

[LA RAMS]

Gacbacker,

Interesting how you should mention Embree in all of this.  Without question she's the main reason UST is where they're at right now along with a shot at a regular season co-title w/CSB.  Simply no way UST would be where they are right now w/o her.

Also, don't forget about Melanie Hageman at Concordia who has played a huge role in her four years as a Cobber.  It's unlikely that the Corn would be where they're at minus Hageman.

I'm hoping the Gusties (and the Little Lefty) have huge performances tonight and this weekend to swing the tide.  But right now, just because of the numbers, I'd have to give the edge to Katch.  And if the Tommies pull off a road win up in M-head and then beat CSB at home on Saturday she's probably going to have the inside track.     

[gacbacker]

And if the Tommies pull off a road win up in M-head and then beat CSB at home on Saturday she's probably going to have the inside track.     

Those are two big If's, but IF both of those scenarios happen and the Tommies force a tie with the Bennies, then I would have to make Katch the favorite as well. I don't think its likely though, in fact I think its more likely that the Tommies go 0-2.

[Willy Wonka]

gacbacker - Only 2 days respond? They must have you working hard over there...or else it took you awhile to come up with plausible explanations

Hageman appears to need two big games — and wins — to insert herself back into this discussion. She's got a game that's impressive in a Zach Randolph sort of way, meaning she scores and rebounds very well but doesn't do much else. The rest of her MVP competition brings it in more categories and currently has their teams in better playoff positioning.

If the race is truly down to Katch and Vadnais, as GB and I seem to have steered it towards, Vadnais seems to have a rather significant advantage heading into the final two games.

The Gusties play Hamline and Carleton, who they went swept in their first meetings. The Pipers and Knights have combined for a 23-17 league record.

The Tommies close with the Cobbers and Bennies, who they split with earlier. CC and CSB have combined for a 27-9 conference record and have an outside shot at being the top two teams in the league when the smoke clears.

As your resident stat head, here's how Katch and Vadnais performed against their two remaining opponents in the first meetings.

Vadnais
23 PPG
4.5 RPG
2 APG
3.5 SPG
57% FG

Katch
12 PPG
3.5 RPG
4.5 APG
0.5 BPG
2 SPG
41% FG

[Willy Wonka]

Oles over Carleton 63-51

Katch has a 3, the assist on the go-ahead jumper by Embree and a jumper to put UST ahead 65-61 over Concordia with under 30 seconds to play. CC led 56-55 with around 3 minutes left. She just got the board on a Cobber miss and got fouled and sank both FTs, too.

Concordia's stat tracker deal is slick.

[Willy Wonka]

Tommies win 69-63.

Once the Cobbers took a 56-55 lead, here's how the game finished for UST.

Wirtz 3, Katch assist (58-56)
Katch 3 (61-56)
Embree jumper, Katch assist (63-61)
Katch jumper (65-61)
Katch rebound, fouled, 2-2 FT (67-61)
Katch fouled, 2-2 FT (69-63)

If that's not an MVP performance, I don't know what is.