BB: ASC: American Southwest Conference

[royhobbs]

As arms get tired, pitching depth becomes a huge issue. Let's see if UTT's B&B boys can hold up, and if Barton and Orsey can keep it up. As the innings go up, so goes the ERA's. Looking at the team ERA's provided by Dawgsdad, I'd be surprised if there's a lot of low scoring games.

[Dawgsdad]

Dawgsdad, thanks for the good run down, who do you think is the best team in the conference right now? A few are getting hot at the right time. Who's got the deepest pitching?

I have to agree with JSG, royhobbs. He stated it quite well. Perhaps we'll have a better idea after the first round is complete.

[Dawgsdad]

As arms get tired, pitching depth becomes a huge issue. Let's see if UTT's B&B boys can hold up, and if Barton and Orsey can keep it up. As the innings go up, so goes the ERA's. Looking at the team ERA's provided by Dawgsdad, I'd be surprised if there's a lot of low scoring games.

I think if pitching is as strong as it was going into this last week of play, we're likely to see some low scoring games. Game three of the TLU/HSU being a good example.

I will agree with you that typically as the season progresses arms will become tired and some of what you see when you look at the total ERA of team is some of that, but it's also a reflection of the pen. If you look at it that way perhaps UTT has the best overall staff. But taking a look at the normal series starters by themselves may give you another perspective as to where the strength is within a pitching staff.

Good discussions nonetheless.

[CUAfan]

Predictions for the first round, using pythagorean winning percentages (in parentheses) as a guide.

Texas Lutheran (.769) over Ozarks (.374) in two
Texas-Tyler (.769) over McMurry (.713) in three
Texas-Dallas (.751) over Hardin-Simmons (.563) in two
Mississippi College (.626) over Mary-Hardin-Baylor (.639) in three

[CUAfan]

Following up on a previous post in which I talked a bit about evaluating pitchers based on the relationship between the runs they give up and the number of runs a league-average offense would be expected to score (in other words, support-neutral). First there is a list of the pitchers with the most effective games pitched (IP/team average game length); second there is a list of the pitchers with the highest support-neutral (SN) winning percentage; lastly a list of the pitchers with the most SN wins with their SN record. Only pitchers with at least 20 IP are included.

Effective Games Pitched (EGM)
1. Lucas Garza, Sul Ross State - 9.5
2. Brad Orosey, Texas Lutheran - 9.5
3. Brett Hinson, Mississippi College - 9.3
4. Jared Hopper, Mary Hardin-Baylor - 9.3
5. Tim Kriegel, Hardin-Simmons - 9.1
6. R.B. Garza, Mary Hardin-Baylor - 8.7
7. Brett Holland, Texas-Tyler - 8.4
8. Michael Johnson, Concordia-Texas - 8.4
9. Kyle Martin, McMurry - 8.3
10. Ben Whiteley, Concordia-Texas - 8.2

SN Winning Percentage
1. Jeremy Macklin, Texas Lutheran - .966 (3.6 EGM)
2. Chris Tampke, LeTourneau - .941 (2.1 EGM)
3. Beau Ziegler, Texas-Tyler - .929 (2.9 EGM)
4. Brett Holland, Texas-Tyler - .880 (8.4 EGM)
5. Michael Johnson, Concordia-Texas - .872 (8.4 EGM)
6. Adam Spinn, Texas-Dallas - .844 (2.8 EGM)
7. Corey Underwood, Louisiana College - .838 (3.8 EGM)
8. Donovan Riggles, Concordia-Texas - .817 (4.0 EGM)
9. Blake Booher, Texas-Tyler - .795 (6.1 EGM)
10. Sam Van Hoozer, Mary Hardin-Baylor - .785 (4.3 EGM)

SN W-L record (standard W-L record)
1. Brett Holland, Texas-Tyler - 7.4-1.0 (9-3)
2. Michael Johnson, Concordia-Texas - 7.3-1.1 (7-2)
3. Brad Orosey, Texas Lutheran - 7.1-2.4 (9-1)
4. Jared Hopper, Mary Hardin-Baylor - 7.0-2.3 (6-2)
5. Brett Hinson, Mississippi College - 6.9-2.5 (8-2)
6. Tim Kriegel, Hardin-Simmons - 6.7-2.3 (6-4)
7. Kyle Martin, McMurry - 6.1-2.2 (3-4)
8. Matt Coburn, Concordia-Texas - 6.0-2.1 (4-5)
9. Ben Whiteley, Concordia-Texas - 5.9-2.3 (4-3)
10. Kyle Barton, Hardin-Simmons - 5.5-1.6 (9-0)

[Dawgsdad]

Following up on a previous post in which I talked a bit about evaluating pitchers based on the relationship between the runs they give up and the number of runs a league-average offense would be expected to score (in other words, support-neutral). First there is a list of the pitchers with the most effective games pitched (IP/team average game length); second there is a list of the pitchers with the highest support-neutral (SN) winning percentage; lastly a list of the pitchers with the most SN wins with their SN record. Only pitchers with at least 20 IP are included.

Effective Games Pitched (EGM)
1. Lucas Garza, Sul Ross State - 9.5
2. Brad Orosey, Texas Lutheran - 9.5
3. Brett Hinson, Mississippi College - 9.3
4. Jared Hopper, Mary Hardin-Baylor - 9.3
5. Tim Kriegel, Hardin-Simmons - 9.1
6. R.B. Garza, Mary Hardin-Baylor - 8.7
7. Brett Holland, Texas-Tyler - 8.4
8. Michael Johnson, Concordia-Texas - 8.4
9. Kyle Martin, McMurry - 8.3
10. Ben Whiteley, Concordia-Texas - 8.2

SN Winning Percentage
1. Jeremy Macklin, Texas Lutheran - .966 (3.6 EGM)
2. Chris Tampke, LeTourneau - .941 (2.1 EGM)
3. Beau Ziegler, Texas-Tyler - .929 (2.9 EGM)
4. Brett Holland, Texas-Tyler - .880 (8.4 EGM)
5. Michael Johnson, Concordia-Texas - .872 (8.4 EGM)
6. Adam Spinn, Texas-Dallas - .844 (2.8 EGM)
7. Corey Underwood, Louisiana College - .838 (3.8 EGM)
8. Donovan Riggles, Concordia-Texas - .817 (4.0 EGM)
9. Blake Booher, Texas-Tyler - .795 (6.1 EGM)
10. Sam Van Hoozer, Mary Hardin-Baylor - .785 (4.3 EGM)

SN W-L record (standard W-L record)
1. Brett Holland, Texas-Tyler - 7.4-1.0 (9-3)
2. Michael Johnson, Concordia-Texas - 7.3-1.1 (7-2)
3. Brad Orosey, Texas Lutheran - 7.1-2.4 (9-1)
4. Jared Hopper, Mary Hardin-Baylor - 7.0-2.3 (6-2)
5. Brett Hinson, Mississippi College - 6.9-2.5 (8-2)
6. Tim Kriegel, Hardin-Simmons - 6.7-2.3 (6-4)
7. Kyle Martin, McMurry - 6.1-2.2 (3-4)
8. Matt Coburn, Concordia-Texas - 6.0-2.1 (4-5)
9. Ben Whiteley, Concordia-Texas - 5.9-2.3 (4-3)
10. Kyle Barton, Hardin-Simmons - 5.5-1.6 (9-0)

CUAfan,

Interesting statistics. Given this method (if you have time) would you care give your assessment of how the 8 teams within the tourney stack up?

[Dawgsdad]

Predictions for the first round, using pythagorean winning percentages (in parentheses) as a guide.

Texas Lutheran (.769) over Ozarks (.374) in two
Texas-Tyler (.769) over McMurry (.713) in three
Texas-Dallas (.751) over Hardin-Simmons (.563) in two
Mississippi College (.626) over Mary-Hardin-Baylor (.639) in three

CUAfan,

Again interesting work. Given that most would say the west is the stronger of the two divisions, your predictions seems to go against that train of thought. Also, it seems that you chose MC over UMHB even though MC has a lower winning percentage. Care to expand on your thought process here?

Lastly, MCM has already taken two of three from UTT this year in Tyler. How much of a factor could prior experience with a team factor in to these predictions?

[dp643]

Wanted to wish everyone good luck and safe travels this weekend. I am headed up to Mississippi for the UMHB/MC series, which I think should be a pretty good one. If nothing else at least the weather is looking a little bit better than last years series.

Should be a fun weekend, good luck everyone.

[Dawgsdad]

Congrats to UMHB's Villegas for going over 200 hits in his career thus far!!

http://www.d3baseball.com/pressreleases/Mary%20Hardin-Baylor/2009/04/23/UMHBs-Villegas-goes-over-200-career-hits/4139

Good luck to the Cru this weekend!!

[dp643]

Regional Rankings hot off the press (I think). Very interesting to say the least. A little perplexing if you ask me.

West Region
1. Pomona-Pitzer 31-3 23-1
2. Texas-Tyler 32-8 29-7
3. Pacific Lutheran 27-8 25-8
4. Redlands 22-12 19-10
5. Texas-Dallas 25-15 24-11
6. McMurry 22-14 19-13

[Dawgsdad]

Regional Rankings hot off the press (I think). Very interesting to say the least. A little perplexing if you ask me.

West Region
1. Pomona-Pitzer 31-3 23-1
2. Texas-Tyler 32-8 29-7
3. Pacific Lutheran 27-8 25-8
4. Redlands 22-12 19-10
5. Texas-Dallas 25-15 24-11
6. McMurry 22-14 19-13

I can understand why TLU didn't make this top six list. Had they not blown a 10 run lead and had a couple of key errors in the doubleheader against UTD and had won the middle game against MCM (walk off HR) I suspect they might be listed in the fifth spot. 

It will be interesting to see what it looks like next week going into the finals...

[Ralph Turner]

Regional Rankings hot off the press (I think). Very interesting to say the least. A little perplexing if you ask me.

West Region
1. Pomona-Pitzer 31-3 23-1
2. Texas-Tyler 32-8 29-7
3. Pacific Lutheran 27-8 25-8
4. Redlands 22-12 19-10
5. Texas-Dallas 25-15 24-11
6. McMurry 22-14 19-13

I can understand why TLU didn't make this top six list. Had they not blown a 10 run lead and had a couple of key errors in the doubleheader against UTD and had won the middle game against MCM (walk off HR) I suspect they might be listed in the fifth spot. 

It will be interesting to see what it looks like next week going into the finals...

I think that they are a close 6th.  The CalState East Bay series does not seem to help TLU as much as McMurry is getting from their series with Chapman.  McMurry's Head-to-head may also give them the nod.

McMurry finished the regular season 25-15/22-14.

[TexasBB]

McM won two out of three at McM not in Tyler. I got to go with the home team and a belief that Wolfe and Rozell are more effective this weekend. Booher is my concern as he has been very inconsistant. Against MC he hit 3 batters and his mechanics have been horrible thus his inconsistancy. Too late to fix that just have to hope he has figured it out. Holland has been a force but has always thrown just the 7 inning game. That means they need an inning or two out of the bullpen and then turn it over to Ziegler in the 9th and not earlier then with 1 out in the 8th. They will need to have Zielger available in the late inninings each game so they can't burn him in the first game. Winning the first game is really important so Tyler will go with Holland and hope he gives them 7 strong innings. He will then be burned. They need 6 good innings out of Booher and 2 strong innings out of Rozell with Ziegler finishing. If it goes to the 3rd game then Wolfe has to step up and give 6 good innings then back to Rozell with Alverado and Cambell ready turning it over to Ziegler in the 8th or 9th. Again in game 2 they cannot use Ziegler for more than an inning and 1/3 but if they can win game one and have a chance to close it out with game two then they probably will gamble and go longer with Ziegler. The wind if it blows from the south will be different this week not conducive to the long ball which will work to UTs advantage. Last week it was out of the nw and blowing out very hard which took away UTs pitching advantage against MC.

Intersting fact looking at the first regional rankings, neither the east or west division first seeds are ranked but UTT, UTD and McM are ranked. Doesn't make any sense to me. I think MC is better than UTD and TLU is better than McM but whoever votes on these rankings believes otherwise.

[Ralph Turner]

McM won two out of three at McM not in Tyler. I got to go with the home team and a belief that Wolfe and Rozell are more effective this weekend. Booher is my concern as he has been very inconsistant. Against MC he hit 3 batters and his mechanics have been horrible thus his inconsistancy. Too late to fix that just have to hope he has figured it out. Holland has been a force but has always thrown just the 7 inning game. That means they need an inning or two out of the bullpen and then turn it over to Ziegler in the 9th and not earlier then with 1 out in the 8th. They will need to have Zielger available in the late inninings each game so they can't burn him in the first game. Winning the first game is really important so Tyler will go with Holland and hope he gives them 7 strong innings. He will then be burned. They need 6 good innings out of Booher and 2 strong innings out of Rozell with Ziegler finishing. If it goes to the 3rd game then Wolfe has to step up and give 6 good innings then back to Rozell with Alverado and Cambell ready turning it over to Ziegler in the 8th or 9th. Again in game 2 they cannot use Ziegler for more than an inning and 1/3 but if they can win game one and have a chance to close it out with game two then they probably will gamble and go longer with Ziegler. The wind if it blows from the south will be different this week not conducive to the long ball which will work to UTs advantage. Last week it was out of the nw and blowing out very hard which took away UTs pitching advantage against MC.

Intersting fact looking at the first regional rankings, neither the east or west division first seeds are ranked but UTT, UTD and McM are ranked. Doesn't make any sense to me. I think MC is better than UTD and TLU is better than McM but whoever votes on these rankings believes otherwise.

The ASC is a big mess.  Mississippi College did well in the ASC, but has too many in-region losses, e.g. Millsaps  x3, TLU  x3, Emory once.  In-region wins include the 14-4 ASC-Division record plus Rust x 3, Emory once and HPU x3.  I get an in-region record of 21-11.  Not stellar.

TLU's in-region record is the 16-5 in the West plus AC 2-1; Trinity 1-1; Cal State East Bay 2-1 Southwestern 2-0 Miss College 3-0 and the stunner... UTD 0-3.

When the committee is trying to see where to slot TLU at 26-11, you have a hard time of putting TLU ahead of UTD, which beat them three times, and McMurry, who beat them twice.

[atlas385]

Just heard,Coach Gardner,head baseball coach, has officially resign from Concordia University.