BB: ASC: American Southwest Conference

CUAfan · April 27, 2009, 06:41:10 PM

Quote from: Blackcat00 on April 27, 2009, 01:59:07 AM
Meyer resigned before the season started. I think that highly doubtful

Ah, did not know that.

Time for more lists! Top 10 hitters in the conference by MLVr (basically how many runs they produced over a theoretical bench player), then the top 10 hitters remaining in the tournament.

Name, Team - MLVr
1. Javier Arrieta, SRSU - 42.1
2. Cody Ross, UTD - 37.4
3. Jeremy Macklin, TLU - 35.2
4. Tom Williams, CTX - 32.7
5. Bo Bell, MC - 32.1
6. Jared Smith, UTD - 31.5
7. Joseph Villegas, UMHB - 31.1
8. Ed Hurta, LETU - 30.1
9. Tre Lips, MCM - 26.8
10. Jake Mullin, MCM - 26.5

Name, Team - MLVr
1. Cody Ross, UTD - 37.4
2. Jeremy Macklin, TLU - 35.2
3. Bo Bell, MC - 32.1
4. Jared Smith, UTD - 31.5
5. Brannon Walls, MC - 26.1
6. Kyle Harvey, TLU - 24.5
7. Ryan Nokelby, TLU - 22.7
8. Brock LeMire, UTT - 19.8
9. Joe Towns, UTT - 19.5
10. Jeremy Harding, UTT - 19.2

TexasBB · April 27, 2009, 11:04:57 PM

Analysis of statistics is a time honored hobby of baseball enthusiasts. Based on that I took a quick look at the upcoming game between TLU and UTT and found some similarities.

I took the projected starting batting orders based on who played in the last playoff seriers and then looked at the season stats. Total HR for both teams is even at 49. Maklin and Farr for TLU each have 11 with Harvey contributing 8. For UTT Daleiden, Lemire and Towns each have 10 and Harding has 9.

In Runs Scored UTT has 342 from the projected starters and TLU has 334. They are similarly close in RBIs with UTT at 315 and TLU with 305.

The only big difference is in BA. As a group the lowest BA on the starting 9 for UTT is its leadoff hitter Kendall Fox who is batting .329. TLU has 6 starters with a lower batting average than Fox and 3 hitting under .300. However, the highest BA on UTT is Harding with a .405 but TLU has Maklin at .453 and Nokelby at .415. UTT appears to spread its runs and RBIs out where TLU produces its runs and RBIs from the middle of its order.

Pitchign wise both teams have a good ace with Holland from UTT and Orosey from TLU. TLU also has developed Maklin as a solid #2 and may use him out of the pen to close out the game against UTT if they have the lead late. UTT has Zielger as a true closer.

So this looks like a toss up on offense and pitching. It may come down to defense and situational hitting. Somewhere during the game there will be a critical situation with two outs and runners in scoring position the team that gets the clutch hit will win. I expect it to be close all the way.

CUAfan · April 28, 2009, 01:42:49 PM

As far as offense goes, I'd be more interested in the respective lineups' OBP and SLG than in AVG, HR, Runs, and RBI. Don't have time to do the numbers at the momen, but I don't know that I'd be using the same players anyway.

Blackcat00 · April 28, 2009, 03:44:05 PM

CTX replacement is rumored Tommy Boggs who runs the Austin Slam, But nothing in writing yet.

TexasBB · April 28, 2009, 05:36:04 PM

Quote from: CUAfan on April 28, 2009, 01:42:49 PM
As far as offense goes, I'd be more interested in the respective lineups' OBP and SLG than in AVG, HR, Runs, and RBI. Don't have time to do the numbers at the momen, but I don't know that I'd be using the same players anyway.

I had the stats so here they are:

UTT OBP SLG TLU OBP SLG
Fox .487 .370 Harvey .470 .657
Daleiden .404 .582 Femath .425 .433
Harding .442 .577 Nokelby .500 .623
Hood .425 .567 Maklin .505 .813
Hodges .371 .531 Farr .411 .562
Lemire .451 .639 Miller .372 .521
Towns .430 .660 Childress .314 .385
Newell .450 .493 Siniff .304 .301
Skeen .452 .584 Green .439 .458

Team Fielding % .969 Team Fielding % .952

TexasBB · April 28, 2009, 05:48:37 PM

UTT and TLU top 4 pitchers

UTT ERA W-L IP SO
Holland 2.49 9-4 76 106
Booher 2.90 9-0 59 44
Wolfe 3.65 5-1 52.1 52
Ziegler 1.67 3.1 27 47

TLU ERA W-L IP SO
Orosey 3.54 10-1 84 81
Steinert 4.12 3-1 54.2 37
Maklin 1.19 6-1 38.1 37
Hembee 2.70 2-0 23.1 12

BigPoppa · April 28, 2009, 10:39:52 PM

I'll take UTT over TLU. Playing with a big chip on their shoulder after stumbling last year.

royhobbs · April 29, 2009, 02:39:25 PM

Good pitching and defense over hitting? Should be a great matchup. If UTT loses, they may make a regional somewhere else, but what about the other ASC teams?

Just_Some_Guy · May 01, 2009, 01:28:45 AM

Quote from: dp643 on April 27, 2009, 09:33:03 AM
I think Tyler and Lutheran are the only two teams with enough pitching to win the tournament out of the LOSERS bracket.

I agree with this statement. I also think that the winner of this first game wins the whole thing. There are so many factors at play that it's hard to really predict the beast that is the ASC.

In previous years, Miss has been really, really good at home.

If UTD gets hot you might have to score 12+ runs to beat them.

At this point, there's a lot of things you can't account for: experience, resiliency , great coaching, etc. It's impossible to quantify these games with numbers.

Best of luck to all the teams involved!

JSG

Ralph Turner · May 01, 2009, 01:38:49 AM

Quote from: royhobbs on April 29, 2009, 02:39:25 PM
Good pitching and defense over hitting? Should be a great matchup. If UTT loses, they may make a regional somewhere else, but what about the other ASC teams?

If UTT goes 2 and barbecue and GFU wins the one game playoff with PLU, then the only at-large bid that the West Region might get might go to PLU.

We may know next Thursday in the final regional rankings.

dp643 · May 01, 2009, 08:31:49 AM

Interesting tidbit: Mississippi College has played the other remaining teams in a best of 3 series already this year. They are 4-5 in those games.

I think it will be interesting to see who they throw out there in game one against UT Dallas. Seaman has been roughed up by UTD, UTT, and TLU this year giving up 16 of his 26 earned runs on the year to these 3 teams. They have to win game one in my opinion to win the tournament because they arent deep enough to have to win 4 games out of the losers bracket. I think they go with Hinson, who has already beaten UTD this year.

With that, I think MC beats UTD.

The rest of the tournament:

Orosey outduels Holland : TLU wins

UTD vs UTT: UTT wins on Booher's shoulders
TLU vs MC: Macklin stays stellar, sending TLU to the finals
MC vs UTT: UTT edges the host to get back to face TLU

TLU vs UTT: Steinert needs to get the rock for TLU in this game. If they do that I think TLU wins and gets the regional bid. If they start Staggs or Hull this will go to another game.

If it goes the distance I think Tyler has the advantage and wins their first ASC tournament.

Any comments?

Ralph Turner · May 01, 2009, 04:46:33 PM

The UTT TLU game is going on now. How about this for great baseball.

Look at this TLU bottom of the 2nd with Holland on the mound.

Clean up batter Macklin at bat walks on a 3-2 count.

BBBKFFFFFB

Macklin goes to 2nd on a balk

Farr grounded out 4-3 on a 3-2 count (SKBBB) Macklin to 3rd.

Cody Miller Sac Fly to RF on a 1-2 count (BSKFFF) Macklin scored

Childress grounds out 5-3.

1 run, no hits, no errors, no LOB!

UTT 1 (on a Hodges solo HR to RF) TLU 1, in the TLU bottom of the 3rd!

dp643 · May 01, 2009, 04:56:11 PM

Couple of errors by Hodges for UTT, he should be familiar with playing on that field shouldnt he?

Just_Some_Guy · May 01, 2009, 05:08:39 PM

Quote from: dp643 on May 01, 2009, 04:56:11 PM
Couple of errors by Hodges for UTT, he should be familiar with playing on that field shouldnt he?

Physical errors are inevitable, and correct me if I'm wrong, but Hodges played 2nd at Miss.

What there's no excuse for is mental errors ala Daleiden getting doubled off, and (from what it sounds like) his error was a result of being complacent and not getting in front of the ball.

JSG

dp643 · May 01, 2009, 05:33:08 PM

Last year Hodges played 3rd and C for MC.

Not listening to the game because I am at work, but I will tell you this doesnt sound like the UT Tyler team UMHB played when I went and watched. In 3 games I saw, UTT made Zero, yes, ZERO mistakes, on defense, base running, executing bunts, executing defensive plays, etc. I think we caught them at the wrong time!