BB: ASC: American Southwest Conference

[BigPoppa]

Just heard,Coach Gardner,head baseball coach, has officially resign from Concordia University.

In my brief interactions with him, he was wonderful man who seemed very helpful to both his players and visiting teams. I really enjoyed coaching against him at Concordia as he seemed to see the "big picture" that baseball provided.

[Blackcat00]

its tough when you dont have a field. Gardner had a great run and his best season in 2002 when he went to the D3 world series. Tommy Boggs a replacement from Slam. Great program in a great city.

[tloc14]

Unfortunate for CTX.  Since I have been paying attention to the ASC, Gardner has been the coach and CTX has been a competitive team the entire time.  Maybe he got an offer somewhere else, or maybe his vision for the program did not coincide with the school's vision...that tends to happen fairly often in D3.  Perhaps he is just tired of it all.

Whatever the case, he seemed to be good for the program there and good luck to him in whatever he decides to do next.

[tloc14]

Im shocked at the new West rankings.  I guess the Cali teams beat up on each other this past weekend.  I thought Tyler would drop quite a bit after losing 2 of 3 to MC, but it seems they rose in the standings due to default.

It all can change with the coming weekend and subsequent weekend.  Still have to win the tourney to get in (that goes for every team in the ASC) in my opinion.

Not winning it all just leaves way too much up to chance.

[BigPoppa]

Perhaps he is just tired of it all.

Whatever the case, he seemed to be good for the program there and good luck to him in whatever he decides to do next.

As a former small college head coach, I can attest at how tiring it really is. Working 70-80 hours a week for a paycheck that rarely reflects the effort and skills needed to do the job... missing time with your family... it all adds up. The saddest, and happiest, day of my life is when I decided to walk away.

[Ralph Turner]

TLU's Brad Orosey surrendered 4 BB's in the top of the 2nd.  UOz can only get one run as #3 batter C Jeremy Hogan gounds into a 2-out bases loaded fielder's choice.  UOz tied at 1, going to the bottom of the 2nd.

[TexasBB]

Just to show how fickle this game can be Centre college upset #1 South rated Milsaps at Milsaps in the opening round of their conference tournament. Centre is a team that is not on anyones radar screen. Same thing can happen in this ASC tournament as nobody is safe from a first round knockout. The teams are all fairly close although Ozarks is the weakest of the group and should lose but then again....

[Ralph Turner]

TLU 3rd...

Nokelby grounded out to ss.
Macklin walked.
Macklin stole second.
Drew Farr grounded out to 2b; Macklin advanced to third.  (Hit behind the runner!)
Cody Miller singled, RBI; Macklin scored.
Cody Miller advanced to second on a wild pitch.
Childress flied out to rf.    (Out #3)

Manufactured run!  Man!  It's playoff time! TLU up 2-1



Texas Lutheran 5th
Nokelby doubled.
Macklin reached on an error by 1b; Nokelby advanced to third.
Drew Farr singled, RBI; Macklin advanced to second; Nokelby scored.
Drew Farr advanced to second on the error; Macklin advanced to third on the throw, scored on an error by p, unearned.
Cody Miller grounded out to 3b.
Childress struck out swinging.
Siniff struck out swinging.
2 runs, 2 hits, 2 errors, 1 LOB.  (One run is unearned!)  TLU 4-1.

Final 10-1 TLU.  TLU got to Cox and then the bullpen couldn't stop them.

[Just_Some_Guy]

Final: TLU 10 - Ozarks 1

Winning Pitcher Brad Orosey moves to 10-1 on the year. He issued 5 BBs, but only 3 hits and 1 run in the second.

Quite a few of the Bulldogs got in on the action by the end of the game. Both Ryan Nokelby and Cody Miller had 3 hits each, and Miller, Drew Farr and Chris Siniff all drove in 2 runs apiece.

JSG

[CUAfan]

Sorry to see Coach Gardner stepping down. His passion for his players and the game of baseball was clear, and in my (admittedly limited) interaction with him, he always seemed a class act. Where'd you hear it, atlas? I can't find the news reported anywhere.

CUAfan,

Again interesting work. Given that most would say the west is the stronger of the two divisions, your predictions seems to go against that train of thought. Also, it seems that you chose MC over UMHB even though MC has a lower winning percentage. Care to expand on your thought process here?

Mainly because MC is at home. The math said UMHB has something like a 52% chance to win a given game against MC w/o home field advantage taken into account. I figured it might give MC enough of a boost to win in three. I was also leaning toward UMHB in three.

Lastly, MCM has already taken two of three from UTT this year in Tyler. How much of a factor could prior experience with a team factor in to these predictions?

Hard to say. Having seen each other once could help I suppose, but I don't think it would help one of them more than the other to any significant degree. I also put little stock in a 3-game sample size (witness Texas getting swept by Kansas not so long ago in D1).

[CUAfan]

CUAfan,

Interesting statistics. Given this method (if you have time) would you care give your assessment of how the 8 teams within the tourney stack up?

Here's how the 8 tourney pitching staffs stack up by SN winning percentage. Side note...in the conference as a whole, Concordia-Texas came out second....what a waste of a pitching staff. Anyway, moving on to the list.

Team SN Win%
1. Texas-Tyler - .738
2. Mary Hardin-Baylor - .643
3. Texas Lutheran - .622
4. McMurry - .613
5. Mississippi College - .547
6. Texas-Dallas - .542
7. Ozarks - .501
8. Hardin-Simmons - .479

You can also do this with the offense's rate of run scoring to see how good the team would be expected to be if the pitching was league average (pitching-neutral, or PN).

Team PN Win %
1. Texas-Dallas - .601
2. Texas-Tyler - .593
3. Mississippi College - .584
4. Texas Lutheran - .576
5. Hardin-Simmons - .558
6. Mary Hardin-Baylor - .544
7. McMurry - .542
8. Ozarks - .435

Just to confirm what is implied by comparing the lists, yes, there is less difference in ASC offenses than there is in ASC pitching staffs. The standard deviation of runs scored per inning is 0.15, while the standard deviation of runs allowed per inning is 0.23.

[Blackcat00]

It is confirmed

[Ralph Turner]

HSU leads UTD 12-9. UTD is batting in the top of the 6th.

Mississippi College leads UMHB 2-1, and is batting in the bottom of the 6th.

[Ralph Turner]

McM 1 at UTT 1, in the top of the 6th.  Wind is blowing in from center.  Holland has 7 K's.

Tre Lips just hit a 2-run HR to left field.  McM 3-1 in the top of the 6th.

UT-Tyler gets one back on a SAC Fly.  McM 3-2 after 6.

Holland strikes out Lips with the bases loaded.  McM 3-2 going to the bottom of the 7th.

UTT doesn't score in the 7th

Holland leaves after 7. 

7 IP 3runs  2 Earned, K8, BB3, HBP 3

Ziegler in to relieve in the 8th.

Ziegler retires the side in the top of the 8th.  McM 3-2.

UTT brings up the 8, 9, and 1 batters for the bottom of the 8th.   Two out and then Martin hits Kendall Fox.   Gaona relieves Martin and gets the DH Hood, fielders choice, 6-4.  McM 3 UTT 2 going to the 9th.  2 hours and 5 minutes so far.  UTT will have the 3-4-5 batting in the 9th.

Great baseball!

McM 3-2 going to the bottom of the 9th.

[Just_Some_Guy]

MC's Seaman and UMHB's Hopper both throwing great games.

Seaman gets out of it despite UMHB having first two runners on w/ no outs. Garza has to move those runners up.

Hopper battles out of a jam in the bottom of the 8th. UMHB will have to score in the top of the 9th to extend the game.

Reed Prewitt in to try and close it out for the Choctaws.

Volz singles scoring Melendez from 2nd to the tie the game at 2-2 in the top of the 9th.



HSU scores another to go up 13-9 in the bottom of the 7th.

Kreigel comes back out for the 8th. Hasn't given up a run that WASN'T a HR since the 1st inning. He records his 7th strikeout and finishes the 8th while facing 9,1,2,3 in the UTD order. No easy feat. What a gutsy performance.

HSU SS Brian Weeks hits a 2B off the top of the wall for a 2 RBI triple, giving HSU a 15-9 lead over UTD.

LHP Michael Reinhardt (10.05 ERA) relieves Kreigel with 1 out in the top of the 9th. Kreigel throws 165 pitches.

2-out single from Eisman closes the gap to 15-11 w/ a runner one. Coach Coleman (HSU) wants to get out of this one without having to go to Barton.

UTD back at the top of the order.

Reinhardt strikes out UTD lead-off hitter Neal Gordon looking.

HSU wins 15 (20 hits), to 11 (14 hits) over UTD.




Joe Towns just singles to right and sends pinch runner Tucker from 1st to 3rd w/ 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th, McM up 1 run.

Adrian Gaona closes it out getting Skeen to ground into a 6-4 fielder's choice. McMurry wins the 1st game behind a great pitching performance from Kyle Martin, and a 2-run HR from Tre Lips.


JSG