BB: ASC: American Southwest Conference

[TexasBB]

That is what I expected. In an earlier post I said I thought they would bring Macklin in to close it out to get the win. If he only works one inning I don't think it really impacts him much for tomorrow. But I was just as surprised that UTT brought back Tommy Rozell for the bottom of the 9th to face the meat of TLUs batting order.

I thought one of the strenghts this season of the UTT team was solid defense but today they looked like the worst fielding team in the conference. To overcome 6 errors was amazing. The problem with errors is that they get into your head and you start thinking about avoiding them instead of attacking the baseball when you field it. Sitting back and letting the ball play you instead of taking command and playing the ball. It will be interesting to see what happens in tomorrows game. Do the errors continue or is there a correction. UTT has won with big ininnings late in games several times this year. I knew this game would be tight and said that it would come down to clutch hitting and it did. Last week in the first game against McM, UTT could not get a clutch hit and had 14 baserunners stranded. Today they overcame the huge defensive and offensive baserunning mistakes with late clutch hits.

I guess I need to learn the modify feature.

Texas BB

[TexasBB]

Although it is still early MC has jumped out to a 5-0 lead over UTD after 3. UTD has not had good pitching this year and won the series last week by just outhittng HSU in a wind assisted ballpark. MC has played very good baseball the last month and it is continuing. Herrin is thowing a shutout so far. If this continues then MC will play UTT once again in a pivital game but this time on their home field. Lets see if UTD can get the bats going and figure out how to slow down the MC offense.

[TexasBB]

MC has the game totally under controll with a 10-0 lead in the 7th. Hinson has allowed only 3 hits.

[tloc14]

If I have a shutdown guy that can come in and stop the bleeding for an inning, you better believe I put him in in the 9th.  No doubt that Macklin could have thrown 1 inning and been completely fine the next day.  Even if he throws alot of pitches (30 or so), thats nothing more than a good bullpen session.  Would not affect him the next day at all.

However, if the 9th finished tied, you probably have to bring in a different pitcher and put Macklin back in the field.  Dont want to completely burn your #2 starter on the first day...but one inning would not do that. 

As far as the pinch running substitutions early, you might contribute some coaching nervs with that.  Vilade has never won a conference tourney, and the Patriots were playing like garbage early in this game.  I have  feeling he was making subs in part because he wanted to get something started within his team.....and the other part was that he probably was hammering the panic button.  Haha, I dont blame him tho.  The winner of that game is in a much better situation than the loser.

Hopefully the errors were just some jitters for the Patriots.  They have been playing soundly all season long, now is NOT the time to lose focus.

[golden_dome]

Game photos from the MC / UT-Dallas game.
http://gochoctaws.com/photo_gallery.aspx?gallery=11

[Dawgsdad]

The replacements of Hood and Towns were due to injury. Hood has been nursing a bad knee (ACL) and Towns twisted an ankle or strained a knee. I believe he was on crutches after the game.

Orosey could have finished the game.  Macklin most certainly could have come in for a single inning or to get one or  two outs.  

The real question is what do you do now.  Macklin can't pitch the rest of the tourney and you need his bat  in the line up.  How far do you let him go tomorrow - likey against UTD? I would go with him as long and the game is close. If TLU can put runs on the board early, and can save Macklin for a few innings either in the nightcap or the next day we may have a chance to get back to the finals.  Not a lot more to be said, we should have won today, but we now just got to play...

[CUAfan]

I think there .969 Fielding percentage, indicates they RARELY play poor defense DP.

Defense isn't not messing up once you get to the ball; defense is turning balls in play into outs. Fielding percentage doesn't measure that. It just measures how often a team/player messes up when they do manage to get to the ball. This is how everyone in the conference measures up by defensive efficiency (the rate at which they turn balls in play into outs).

Team - Defensive Efficiency
1. Texas Lutheran - .637
2. Texas-Tyler - .634
3. Mississippi College - .621
4. Mary Hardin-Baylor - .621
5. McMurry - .617
6. LeTourneau - .605
7. Texas-Dallas - .603
8. Louisiana College - .597
9. Hardin-Simmons - .590
10. Concordia-Texas - .588
11. Ozarks - .586
12. Schreiner - .583
13. East Texas Baptist - .568
14. Sul Ross State - .559
15. Howard Payne - .547

So, yeah, Texas-Tyler is a really good defensive team compared to the rest of the conference, but not because they only mess up 3.1% of the time when they get to the ball. It's because they turn 63.4% of all balls in play into outs.

[Just_Some_Guy]

The replacements of Hood and Towns were due to injury. Hood has been nursing a bad knee (ACL) and Towns twisted an ankle or strained a knee. I believe he was on crutches after the game.

Orosey could have finished the game.  Macklin most certainly could have come in for a single inning or to get one or  two outs.  

Thanks for the insight into both Hood and Towns. Unfortunate to see two very good players go down for the Patriots.

As far as the other, they're speculations. Certainly they're based on your knowledge of the game, and what you felt those players were capable of doing based on what you were witnessing and what their history indicated they would do. We can second guess all we want (and that's part of this game, it's what makes it fun for the spectator.)

The reality of it is that we're not watching Bill Miller, Walt Driggers, and Mike Gardner coaching in their 15th playoff season anymore. And maybe that has nothing to do with any of this.

Personally, from the comfort of my couch at home, I probably would've thrown Macklin. He's a veteran leader and chances are he'd get the job done. Orosey's been nails all year, but his pitch count was up there.

Both coaching staffs weighed all the factors and the made the decisions they felt would give their team the best opportunity to win. Who knows what any of us would've done in that situation.

As for moving forward - you just evaluate your situation one inning at a time. Try to win every inning, locate every pitch, connect with every 'pitch to hit,' and let the game run it's course.

Are UTD and TLU in a world of trouble right now because of the way the the bracket plays out? Sure, but that's what makes this game fun to watch - it's time to create your own compelling story.

JSG

[Just_Some_Guy]

Team - Defensive Efficiency
1. Texas Lutheran - .637
2. Texas-Tyler - .634
3. Mississippi College - .621

So, yeah, Texas-Tyler is a really good defensive team compared to the rest of the conference, but not because they only mess up 3.1% of the time when they get to the ball. It's because they turn 63.4% of all balls in play into outs.

Do you think these stats indicate that defense wins championships?

I've a huge proponent of sabremetrics to evaluate the game. I've read Bill James, Rob Neyer, Nate Silver (and I'll spare everyone the name dropping)...

I've said before, I love the stats you bring to this forum. I think they're a great value add, and this particular set is rather telling.

That said, there are other things we can't discount. If a guy has a career fielding percentage of .875 is it safe to say that he's not a great fielder? He may even get to more balls than the others and make more plays on those... but if he's fielding at an .875 clip. Eh.

Sometimes stats tell the whole story. Sometimes they tell you Kevin Youkilis and his ability to average a ridiculous amount of pitches per at-bat is going to have a high OBP, but sometimes you can make them tell you whatever you want.

There's TONS of components to the game, and sometimes the intangibles matter as much as anything.  Thanks for all you do providing awesome statistics that enable us to glean more insight into these teams and the players that represent them.

JSG

[Ralph Turner]

It's good to have CUAfan back!    +1!

[royhobbs]

You guys do a great job putting these numbers together, I think they're great reading. The ASC has some great players and big time stats. Awesome playoff series this year!

[dp643]

I thought MC would throw Hinson tonight.

Going back to Macklin throwing tonight in the 9th. I think I disagree. Hembree is the closer, and has been fairly effective given his stats. If you cant count on him to win in that situation, then whats the point in having him as the closer? Instead of throwing Macklin in there in the 9th, I would have gone with Hembree to start the 9th. Then again thats just me, and Orosey had retired the 8th in order. They were obviously on a short leash with him in the 9th with pulling him after the leadoff double, so why not just go straight to Hembree in the first place?

There is no question that Macklin probably could have come in there and closed it out, but I wouldnt do it at the expense of wasting a single pitch for tomorow, especially when you have as much confidence as you do in your closer's ability.

All this speculation is fun.

Now the real kicker is going to be who MC throws against UTT. Do they go with Seaman or Craven? Im going to step out on  a limb and say Craven because they think they can hit Booher.

[dp643]

Another interesting note:

Mississippi College is destroying the ASC record for team stolen bases in a season this year. They stole 9 I believe tonight vs UTD.

[tloc14]

I dont know who MC will throw vs UTT.  Seaman is the obvious choice because he has thrown well all season except for a couple games....one of those games was a 10-0 win by UTT in which Booher pitched for UTT.  I wouldnt say MC has confidence in putting runs up against Booher, but I would say that they have confidence in Seaman.  Hell, he has thrown 2 no-hitters this season.

I was not aware of the injury situation at UTT.  That is very unfortunate indeed.  I know that Towns had a knee problem a couple years ago, and that kept him out of an entire season.  Hopefully neither of the injuries are severe.

When I commented on Vilade's decision making, I simply put myself into his shoes (tho I didnt know about the injuries obviously).  I know I would have been chomping at the bit to get some drive and passion out of my team.  After losing a huge series vs MC 2 weeks ago, then having to come back from behind to win the McM series, I would have been throwing a fit watching my team play so poorly.  6 errors!!!??  And some stupid base running?   I would have blown up and replaced everyone in the lineup.

Luckily, Holland is a great pitcher and kept the team in the game.  And, I have to give it to Rozell.  He shook off a couple poor outings and threw clutch innings tonight.

The UTT-MC game will probably be close.  Just like the UTT-TLU game.  I have a feeling TLU is going to blow out UTD, and then have some serious momentum going into their 3rd game, so the loser of the UTT-MC game might be in trouble.

This tourney is turing out to be very entertaining indeed.   

[tloc14]

I think there .969 Fielding percentage, indicates they RARELY play poor defense DP.

Defense isn't not messing up once you get to the ball; defense is turning balls in play into outs. Fielding percentage doesn't measure that. It just measures how often a team/player messes up when they do manage to get to the ball. This is how everyone in the conference measures up by defensive efficiency (the rate at which they turn balls in play into outs).

Team - Defensive Efficiency
1. Texas Lutheran - .637
2. Texas-Tyler - .634
3. Mississippi College - .621
4. Mary Hardin-Baylor - .621
5. McMurry - .617
6. LeTourneau - .605
7. Texas-Dallas - .603
8. Louisiana College - .597
9. Hardin-Simmons - .590
10. Concordia-Texas - .588
11. Ozarks - .586
12. Schreiner - .583
13. East Texas Baptist - .568
14. Sul Ross State - .559
15. Howard Payne - .547

So, yeah, Texas-Tyler is a really good defensive team compared to the rest of the conference, but not because they only mess up 3.1% of the time when they get to the ball. It's because they turn 63.4% of all balls in play into outs.

Very interesting stats.  Look at the top teams in that category, then look at the top 8 teams in conference.  Some notable similarities.