BB: ASC: American Southwest Conference

[golden_dome]

We don't know the OWP's of the 12 in-region teams that Mississippi College played.

However, let's assume that the 11 teams' winning percentages, excluding Rust, were all .500.

Add those Winning percentages together and we get 5.500 divided by 11 to get .500 as an OWP.

Let's assume that Rust was 0-25 (.000) versus in-region opponents.  (I cannot find Rust's baseball scores on Rust's website.  Anyone have the NCAA web page for Rust?)

Add .000 to 5.500 and we get 5.500.  Divide that by 12 and we get the OWP for Mississippi College of .4583.  That is a drop of .042 as a possible maximum hit that Rust made on Mississippi College's OWP.

Is that the difference that the West Region committee was required to acknowledge?

Ralph,
  I've looked around several different sites trying to find Rust's regional record, but they haven't submitted any stats to the NCAA. I know it shows up as a regional game when we score report to the NCAA, so Rust is doing their score reporting. They only have 10 DIII games on their schedule, so who knows.

  This isn't offical, but I jotted down the regional records of the MC and UTD opponents last night just to get an idea what the OWP's would be. I had UTD at .560. MC is .565 without Rust in there. I guessed and gave Rust an 0-12 regional record, and that would lower our OWP to .550. There's no telling what the OOWP is, it would take a week to put that together. Maybe UTD is much stronger there.

  I'm sure there is something I'm not seeing that puts UTD ahead. I've talked with coaches about the process before in other sports, and most would say they wished there was a criteria for common sense sometimes. Both teams look to be pretty close on criteria, but UTD struggled against MC and UT-Tyler in the regular season with a 2-5 record, then followed that with an 0-2 postseason against the two. You would think that is a pretty clear separation, but the committee does have to go with the process, and if that puts UTD ahead then so be it. It probably will be a moot point because both of us will have a hard time getting in.

  I don't like how it turned out for MC, but HSUSID is right in that the much larger issue is our representation on the committees this time of year. We are one conference, but you'd think we should have more than one representative considering we do account for almost half the teams in the region.

I'm anxious to see how the selection goes this year. The entire process is impossible, comparing regions against one another with all of them having totally different landscapes. There's no question regions like the West and South are behind the eight ball, but honestly I really don't know how they could improve it. The only way to ensure more teams make the postseason, is to develop more AQ's with more conferences.

[UP AND IN]

While I understand "Chris Brooks" wanting to stand up for his team and make a push to get his team in, there is nothing anyone can do and both MC and UTD have to sit around until selection day anxious. Seems like a similar situation every year that teams think they are deserving and get left home...

Last year everyone speculated between a CTX team that was 26-13 in region (better win % than both teams this year with .667) and UT-Tyler who only lost 9 games all year, though i'm not sure about region record.

CB put up numbers against hard or ranked teams as well and said you went 9-11 in those games and you think you'll get in?  CTX won 3 of 5 from #5 ranked UTT last year, 3 from #21 UMHB, 2 of 3 from Ozarks, 2 of 3 from Trinity (who made it to the regional), but the only downfall ws losing 4 of 5 to eventual champ McMurry, a similar situation that MC is in now in losing to the Champs.

CTX and UTT cancelled each other out last year pretty much and that regional was in Abilene, a mere few hourse drive to location, while this years is at Linfield... I just don't see either team getting in and would be surprised if they did. I would be happy for them no doubt, but a tad skeptical as to what changed from last year to this year to not either of those teams in.

Unfortunetly, the West region is too damn big and nobody wants to change anything while the power is in the East (Southern MAINE???)  is the number one ranked team, a team from Maine? Come on!!!!  Oh well I hope one of those 2 teams gets in this year and plays UTT in the championship of the regional and the winner makes some noise  at the World Series.

[BigPoppa]

With regards to Southern Maine (and cold-weather schools in general), people often underestimate the advantages of practicing indoors for a month or two:
1. Never get rained out
2. no other choice but to focus on the fundamentals
3. Hit, hit, and hit some more.
4. While the South and West play warm weather games all season, it does not warm up in the snow belt until late April and that feeling of warm weather games refreshes your love for the game. Guys are excited to simply be outside in the warm weather again, regardless of the baseball season and that positive attitude can carry a team a long ways.

[dp643]

IMO Cal Lutheran will get a Pool C before any of the ASC teams do. Up and In is right, as last year with CTX and UTT both missing on a Pool C, and I think both of those teams were better than the teams in question this year. If one of those two couldnt get in last year with the regional in Texas, I just dont see TLU, UTD, or MC getting in this year with it up in the northwest.

[TexasBB]

MC,TLU and UTD will not likely get in. All you have to do is look at the regional rankings. UTD is 6 and Chapman is likely to get the Pool B nod and we don't know where Hendrix will be assinged. Thus if it is a 6 team field non of those schools will go to the West Regional. Since UTD is ranked 6th they are the only one of the 3 schools that has a chance (not on the regional list not on the radar screen). If the 13th pick comes down to a 6th ranked West regional team againt say a 3rd ranked regional team from another region that has a better overall record, I think you know what will happen.

[KMONEY]

Is it not possible for MC to get a pool C bid in another region such as the Central region.. I saw that one person's bracketology has them as a #3 seed in the Central Region..  MC has won 18 of their last 22.. 6 of those games were againgst #11 UT Tyler and it was a split series, so 3 of the 4 losses to UT Tyler and one loss to #12 Milsaps in extra innings... Like the saying goes "what have you done for me lately"..  MC is a great team and would be a great add to any region..

I also do not see how in the world UTD would be ranked ahead of MC in the Regional rankings after MC has the better in region record, more wins, and beat them head to head 3 out of 4 times including a 10-0 rout in 7 innings in the opening round of the ASC tourney that was one sided as a game could be and both teams were fresh.

[Blackcat00]

As a former college baseball player, playing real simulated games is a huge favor to have on your side than practicing indoors and working on your fundamentals. You do that in the offseason. You can never have enough innings or enough intersquads. If indoors were an advantage MLB wouldnt have the cactus and grapefruits leagues held in AZ and FL.

[Dawgsdad]

I'm curious to know when the regional field will be set? I believe that play is suspose to begin 13 May, which is next Wednesday. I don't expect TLU will get a call and I don't believe that the team is planning on it either as they have already turned in their gear...

So, when do we expect the suspense to be over? and we can begin the next round of rants... likes or dislikes

[Ralph Turner]

Selections and brackets will be announced Monday morning.

[Dawgsdad]

Dawgsdad,

I think both TLU and MC are deserving teams and with a broader 64 team field may have made it. But once again the ASC will only get one team so the so called 6.5/1 ratio is out the window. I truely feel for the seniors like your son that played on a division champion and is penalized for 2 close losses in the conference tournament. It happend to UTT last year and they ended up ranked in the top 25 but got left home.

If your son is not drafted but still has the itch I would suggest he attends the tryouts that are being held and he may have a chance to get picked up by one of the independent minor league teams. That happened to my son a few years back.

I have said several times that I thought that MC was as good as any team in the ASC the last 2 months of the season. However, their slow start, I believe at one point they were 6-7 ended up killing their Playoff chances. They had to get a Pool A bid and came one strike short of doing it. UTT was the only team in the ASC that had a chance and probably would have got it even if they lost the last game IMO. TLU's extra inining loss to UTD is really what killed them. Had they won that game they would have of perhaps made it. But once again they were only so so in the early season and came on strong in the middle to second half. As Ralph has said if there was one or two games during the season that you lost to a team you should have beat those are the games that probably killed your chances. I do not like the system since I believe the ASC is a very strong DIII conference and the teams will beat up each other. I don't think there is any team in the country that could run the gauntlet of UTT, UTD, MC, TLU, McM, HSU, UMHB and Ozarks without suffering more than a couple of losses. The conference IMHO is that tough and we are getting penalized for it. By beating each other up the win loss records are not steller and thus the regional rankings are lower than the true strenth of these teams. That is just how I see it but I am sure that others feel the same way. 

TexasBB,

Thanks for the comments and the encouragement. We received letters this week to "invitation only" predraft workouts so these are encouraging.

Some of his former teammates from his HTU days are now playing over in Europe. I would agree that opportunities within the continental or independent leagues would be a better route but Europe or Japan (if you can get a connection) are options as well.

Umpiring is another route and one that he's accustom too. When not playing he's been umpiring, for at least 12 years now. He loves and enjoys the game that much...

With regards to the season and the way it ended. We just didn't get it done when we should have. Of the four games against UTD we lost two by one run, one of these games we gave up a 10 run lead! Another, a walk off homer ended it. We were in all these game but didn't get the job done. Similar thing happened with MCM. We also seem to have trouble offensively when Macklin was on the mount – don't know if this was over confidence but somewhere we let down when we shouldn't have.

Had we won the first game against UTT it would have been a real boost for us, but we shouldn't have needed it knowing that we needed to win to stay alive.  I think it was Big Pappa that said "you can't loose the games you're supposed to win."  Some may think that we we're supposed to beat UTT but I don't see them as that strong or powerful – lucky, yes, but I feel that we were equally as strong and talented. I believe we showed it too in that game. Orosey (a freshmen mind you) pitched well and should not have been lifted in my opinion, but I'm not coaching, just my opinion, he'd been in rough places all year and got out of it, why change now?

I'm looking forward to Monday and the selections for regionals. It will be interesting to see how it all shakes out and I hope that any ASC representative we have a strong showing so that people can see what we're made of down here and we are worthy of more recognition overall. 

[d3baseballnut]

Dawgsdad,

I think both TLU and MC are deserving teams and with a broader 64 team field may have made it. But once again the ASC will only get one team so the so called 6.5/1 ratio is out the window. I truely feel for the seniors like your son that played on a division champion and is penalized for 2 close losses in the conference tournament. It happend to UTT last year and they ended up ranked in the top 25 but got left home.

If your son is not drafted but still has the itch I would suggest he attends the tryouts that are being held and he may have a chance to get picked up by one of the independent minor league teams. That happened to my son a few years back.

I have said several times that I thought that MC was as good as any team in the ASC the last 2 months of the season. However, their slow start, I believe at one point they were 6-7 ended up killing their Playoff chances. They had to get a Pool A bid and came one strike short of doing it. UTT was the only team in the ASC that had a chance and probably would have got it even if they lost the last game IMO. TLU's extra inining loss to UTD is really what killed them. Had they won that game they would have of perhaps made it. But once again they were only so so in the early season and came on strong in the middle to second half. As Ralph has said if there was one or two games during the season that you lost to a team you should have beat those are the games that probably killed your chances. I do not like the system since I believe the ASC is a very strong DIII conference and the teams will beat up each other. I don't think there is any team in the country that could run the gauntlet of UTT, UTD, MC, TLU, McM, HSU, UMHB and Ozarks without suffering more than a couple of losses. The conference IMHO is that tough and we are getting penalized for it. By beating each other up the win loss records are not steller and thus the regional rankings are lower than the true strenth of these teams. That is just how I see it but I am sure that others feel the same way. 

TexasBB,

Thanks for the comments and the encouragement. We received letters this week to “invitation only” predraft workouts so these are encouraging.

Some of his former teammates from his HTU days are now playing over in Europe. I would agree that opportunities within the continental or independent leagues would be a better route but Europe or Japan (if you can get a connection) are options as well.

Umpiring is another route and one that he’s accustom too. When not playing he’s been umpiring, for at least 12 years now. He loves and enjoys the game that much…

With regards to the season and the way it ended. We just didn’t get it done when we should have. Of the four games against UTD we lost two by one run, one of these games we gave up a 10 run lead! Another, a walk off homer ended it. We were in all these game but didn’t get the job done. Similar thing happened with MCM. We also seem to have trouble offensively when Macklin was on the mount – don’t know if this was over confidence but somewhere we let down when we shouldn’t have.

Had we won the first game against UTT it would have been a real boost for us, but we shouldn’t have needed it knowing that we needed to win to stay alive.  I think it was Big Pappa that said “you can’t loose the games you’re supposed to win.”  Some may think that we we’re supposed to beat UTT but I don’t see them as that strong or powerful – lucky, yes, but I feel that we were equally as strong and talented. I believe we showed it too in that game. Orosey (a freshmen mind you) pitched well and should not have been lifted in my opinion, but I’m not coaching, just my opinion, he’d been in rough places all year and got out of it, why change now?

I’m looking forward to Monday and the selections for regionals. It will be interesting to see how it all shakes out and I hope that any ASC representative we have a strong showing so that people can see what we’re made of down here and we are worthy of more recognition overall. 

I agree. TLU and MC are both very deserving teams and they would prove it if the ASC would ever get the benefit of the doubt and receive a pool c bid. COrrection: UTtyler wasnt just in the top 25, they were in the Top 10 in 2008! How much sense does that make??

I don't think losing early should matter for TLU, and doesnt even apply to MC. Marietta will probably still get in after going 2 and out in their tournament, and their record is not as good as TLU and similar to MC. Same goes for other teams like Illionois Wesleyan and St. Norbert.

THe committee will use the rationale that Marietta beat UTT, so the ASC is weaker. But beware of that logic, because the same thing is true when comparing Concordia Chicago to IWU for a pool c bid (CUC beat IWU), but the committee will ignore it to get who they want in, in this case, IWU and Marietta

[royhobbs]

Big Poppa, after seeing dNuts -Karma grade, good thing he's not one of your students! How about St Scholastica's day yesterday? Like you say, you gotta control your own destiny.

[Ralph Turner]

The angst of the failure of the ASC to get a Pool C is directly due to the fact that we present ourselves as one conference but have enough teams to earn 2 bids!

We not only eliminate the potential 2nd Pool A bid in the 8-team playoff, we also inflict losses on the best Pool C candidates that would remain in a 2 conference format.

This will be a problem every year, and in every sport, including men's and women's basketball, men's and women's soccer, softball, baseball, men's and women's tennis, until the ASC splits into 2 conferences.  That is a 2 year process after the conference declares that it wants to do that.

The likelihood that will happen is scant, because the conference has had two schools leave the conference.  One school leaving one of the conference changes the dynamics in the conference.  Fred Jacoby recommended that a conference never leave itself vulnerable to a single school holding the conference hostage.  That means that the ASC needs to find about 3 schools who wish to join the ASC, a five to six year process for that school to become a full member.

[RSSmith]

Big Poppa, after seeing dNuts -Karma grade, good thing he's not one of your students! How about St Scholastica's day yesterday? Like you say, you gotta control your own destiny.

I have to stick up for d3baseballnut.  He brings the same intensity and self confidence to these boards that he brought to the baseball diamond--intensity and self confidence that got him within one pitch of a national championship and a spot on the all-CWS team.  My sense is that folks are giving him negative karma not for what he says but for how he says it.  In debate, that's known as an "ad hominem" fallacy.  I frankly find his posts to be very thought-provoking and entertaining (even though I often disagree with them).  I think we all would miss reading what he has to say if he weren't involved.

[Blackcat00]

Once again the ASC is shafted. The selection commitee is absolutley brutal.