BB: ASC: American Southwest Conference

[yuckmonkey]

Congrats to the final 4 who will play for all the marbles this weekend.

I think Mississippi College and TLU have to be the favorites because of pitching depth. Orosey vs Seaman game one could be very interesting. The winner of this game I predict will win the whole thing.

I see it as follows:

MC over TLU
UTT over HSU

TLU over HSU
MC over UTT

TLU over UTT

MC over TLU

Ive been wrong alot this year so take that with a grain of salt!

I will jump in:

MC over TLU
HSU over UTT

TLU over UTT
MC over HSU

TLU over HSU

TLU over MC

MC over TLU

1 bid for MC and no one else gets in.  That hurts me to say but I think we just the Champ in and that is it

[Just_Some_Guy]

1 bid for MC and no one else gets in.  That hurts me to say but I think we just the Champ in and that is it

I share the sentiment that IF MC wins the tournament they'll be the lone ASC representative. I think Tyler's resume looks better than TLU's, but the fact that Tyler lost both match-ups to TLU earlier this year, as well as 2 to UMHB, and two poundings courtesy of Sul Ross & Hardin Simmons (though they won both of those series) might indicate to some voters that the west is stronger and that Tyler doesn't have the depth to be true competition in the regional.

TLU would probably have a decent chance if not for the late Feb losses to U Dallas, and a really good chance if they won those two and swept both Sul Ross and Schreiner.

IF TLU or Tyler do win though, I think MC gets in, even if they're shipped to another region.

The West Regional will definitely feature these teams: Chapman, Linfield, Trinity, Pomona, which leaves two spots for the ASC champion and one Pool C bid. I have to believe Pac Lutheran is that team right now (though it's a lot closer after being swept by Linfield). Redlands could play their way in with a series win at Chapman this weekend, but they're on the bubble as well.

JSG

[swbaseball3]

Don't count out Trinity.  They swing the bat and they have a pretty good stable of arms.  Klemish can win just about any game he throws and he isn;t the only one.

[Just_Some_Guy]

Don't count out Trinity.  They swing the bat and they have a pretty good stable of arms.  Klemish can win just about any game he throws and he isn;t the only one.

Trinity has already clinched a spot as a result of winning the SCAC, and I included them in the post above. Or were you just mentioning their ability to be competitive in the West Regional?

JSG

[Ron Boerger]

Don't count out Trinity.  They swing the bat and they have a pretty good stable of arms.  Klemish can win just about any game he throws and he isn;t the only one.

Trinity has already clinched a spot as a result of winning the SCAC, and I included them in the post above. Or were you just mentioning their ability to be competitive in the West Regional?

JSG

My concern about Trinity is the huge break between the SCAC championship and the first West Region playoff game.  They were on a definite hot streak (12 straight Ws, outscoring their opponents 168-55) ... can the bats reignite after ~3 weeks off?

Agree that MC should get a bid if they don't win the ASC tourney ... but that's probably the only way the conference gets two bids this year.

[yuckmonkey]

Changing the subject here for a minute and being curious but any word or rumor about who will be taking over at UTT??

[tigerfan_2001]

Don't count out Trinity.  They swing the bat and they have a pretty good stable of arms.  Klemish can win just about any game he throws and he isn;t the only one.

Trinity has already clinched a spot as a result of winning the SCAC, and I included them in the post above. Or were you just mentioning their ability to be competitive in the West Regional?

JSG

My concern about Trinity is the huge break between the SCAC championship and the first West Region playoff game.  They were on a definite hot streak (12 straight Ws, outscoring their opponents 168-55) ... can the bats reignite after ~3 weeks off?

Agree that MC should get a bid if they don't win the ASC tourney ... but that's probably the only way the conference gets two bids this year.

That is my concern as well.  Knowing Coach Scannell, I bet they are intersquading like crazy in effort to keep the bats going.  I know they intrasquad all the time

[TexasBB]

On the subject of who takes over at UTT after James leaves I have not clue but hope for Stan Smith. He played with my son back when the program started and has been a member of the team as player or a coach from day 1. There will however be a number of top applicants that will be interviewing for this job. Alot of the Juco coaches that are very desering with strong winning traditions will apply. Also existing DIII coaches wanting a great school with top notch facilities will look to upgrade.  So I would expect that the selection process will take a while and many highly qualified candidates will be applying. Stan is my personal favorite but it will be tough for him since he has no head coaching experience and is a young candidate. (However James Vilade was very young when he started UD from scratch several years ago.)

With respect to the conference tournament I too favor MC to win it. However both MC and UTT are ranked in the top 20 national polls and both teams have over 30 wins.  UTT is a much improved team to the one early in the season that lost those games to UMHB and TLU.  Having said that I don't think they are as good as MC.  With two teams in the top 20 you would hope that both would have a chance of making the regionals but that is a long shot.  The ASC deserves 2 teams so lets hope that the tournament champion is not the only representative again. If that happens it will be 3 years in a row that the ASC only gets one team. Ralph may have the stats but I think it was 4 years ago that we had 2 teams I think it was TLU and UTD but that might have been 5 years ago.

[Just_Some_Guy]

If that happens it will be 3 years in a row that the ASC only gets one team. Ralph may have the stats but I think it was 4 years ago that we had 2 teams I think it was TLU and UTD but that might have been 5 years ago.

It was 2007, and you're correct: TLU conf champs, UTD got a Pool C bid and knocked TLU out of the West Regional.

JSG

[yuckmonkey]

Ralph may have the stats but I think it was 4 years ago that we had 2 teams I think it was TLU and UTD but that might have been 5 years ago.

I think the year was 2007, I dont think UTT was not eligible and TLU won the tournament by shutting out McMurry in the final.  UTD did not even get to the final and was even run ruled by McMurry to get put out.  McM beat UTD 3 out of 5 times that year.
From our prospective I can not explain the selection process, how did UTD get in that year after being run ruled in the tournament and it was played at UTD's field; then you have other years when only one ASC team gets in?

In conclusion, I still think one team even if MC does not win the championship.  I hope I am wrong.  But whoever gets in I hope they go deep into the West Regional or wins it.

[yuckmonkey]

On the subject of who takes over at UTT after James leaves I have not clue but hope for Stan Smith. 

I do not know the staff at UTT very well, but I am hearing that the pitching coach is a front runner.  Is that Stan Smith?  If not who is it?

[golden_dome]

I have zero faith in the selection process as far as the ASC is concerned, but I still think MC is in already and Tyler can position themselves with a 2-2 weekend. The worst MC can do is 30-6, and Tyler with a 30-11 record with .530 SOS should be in, especially with the extra pool c bids this year.

MC has swung the bat as well as anyone the second half of the season, but they enter the tourney down a couple of weekend starters. Brandon Martin is officially done this year, and Terrell Prescott has missed the last three weekends after moving to the ASC lead in ERA. That would hurt any team's chances, but the coaches thought they had a deep staff to start the season and it's paid off. It would still be nice to see the staff at full strength but there's nothing you can do about it. Seaman has been great all year, Chris Ferriss has been solid, Ian Underwood has stepped in with three great starts and Daniel Cowart has had a great year. Hopefully Prescott is back at some point.

This tourney will probably be like most others, whoever swings the bat will take it. These are four of the five top hitting teams in the league. MC, TLU and Tyler are probably the three hottest teams down the stretch, and HSU has scored 55 runs in their last five games. Should be a good tournament.

[TexasBB]

I do not know the staff at UTT very well, but I am hearing that the pitching coach is a front runner.  Is that Stan Smith?  If not who is it?

The pitching coach is Stan Smith and he has done a good job this year having to rebuild the staff. 

UTT is 32-10 going into this weekend with MC being 32-7.  I hope that they both get in but the only possible way is for them to finish 1-2 like last year. That will not be easy playing on TLUs home field. 

[acain1008]

his name is actually stan phelps, just clearing that up

[Just_Some_Guy]

TLU vs. Mississippi College

Mississippi is the highest nationally ranked ASC team, and they're playing on TLU's home field in match up presumably featuring two of the best pitcher's in the country.

Mississippi College
Team AVG = .362 (1st)
Team ERA = 3.77 (1st)

Rotation:
Tyler Seamen 10-0, 2.91 ERA
Ian Underwood 4-0, 2.03 ERA
Chris Ferris 4-1, 3.61 ERA

Closer:
Daniel Cowart 5 SV, 3.47 ERA, .211 AVG against

Sticks:
Andy Smith (.361/.457) and Chase Herrin (.384/.466) set the tone at the top of the order, and then comes the gauntlet:

Dakota Bodree .338, 10 doubles
Bo Bell .441, 10 HR, 51 RBI (maybe the best power hitter in the ASC)
Shane Bennett .364, 5 HR
Stuart Magee .450, 6 HR, 36 RBI
Brannon Walls .364

Keys to Success:
> Get ahead in the account and hit Orosey's fastball. Save for Herrin and Bennett they already strike out a lot and if they're working from behind, and the slider is sharp it will be tough to string together hits.
> Play D on the left side. Bennett and Bodree have made their fair share of errors, and the speed at the top of TLU's order will certainly take advantage of any bobbles.
> Keep it close on the mound. Seamen doesn't have to be extra special, he just has to pitch how he has all season, and trust that his offense (the best in the ASC) will find a chink in Orosey's armor at some point.
> Run. Early and often. You're probably not going to let a lot of chances to score, particularly early, so manufacturing runs on the base paths is imperative.

--------------------------------

Texas Lutheran
Team AVG = .329 (5th)
Team ERA = 4.23 (1st)

Rotation:
Brad Orosey 10-1, 2.94 ERA
Jeremiah Steinart 8-2, 3.28 ERA
Travis Staggs 5-2, 5.28 ERA

Closer:
Tom Hembree 7 SV, 2.16 ERA

Sticks:
Not quite the pop in the middle of the lineup that MC has, but this is a balanced line-up capable of stringing together a big rally after innings of being relatively quiet.

Chris Green (.299) has great RBI potential (34) at the top of the order, and Andrew Femath (.410/.500) has a penchant for getting on base and swiping bags (19-20).

In the 3-slot Ryan Nokelby (.431/.505) is one of the best pure hitters in the ASC, and he's putting the ball in play (28:6 BB/K ratio).

Clay Childress (.342 7 HR, 40 RBI) is swinging a hot bat lately out of the cleanup spot and he's followed by Darwin Lucero (.388). Cody Miller and Jason McGill always have potential to leave the yard, and Evan Curtis (.352) is solid in the 9 hole.

Keys to Success:
> Orosey. He has the best stuff in the ASC, likely the west region, but he has to shake off last week and command it.
> Be resilient. Like TLU teams of the past, this team has shown they're not going to lay down and quit and they need to bring that mentality this weekend.
> Prevent the big inning. MC can flat out swing it, and they're capable of putting up huge innings so it'll be important for TLU to play intelligently and adjust to the course of the game. At some point this may mean exchanging outs for runs.
> Use the pen effectively. With MC's Martin and Prescott out (if he comes back what an X factor), TLU has the deepest pen, and they can throw a lot of different looks at an offense. This could be critical if they get in a shoot out.


Your thoughts!?

JSG