BB: ASC: American Southwest Conference

[CrashDavisD3]

TLU vs. Mississippi College

Mississippi is the highest nationally ranked ASC team, and they're playing on TLU's home field in match up presumably featuring two of the best pitcher's in the country.

Mississippi College
Team AVG = .362 (1st)
Team ERA = 3.77 (1st)

Rotation:
Tyler Seamen 10-0, 2.91 ERA
Ian Underwood 4-0, 2.03 ERA
Chris Ferris 4-1, 3.61 ERA

Closer:
Daniel Cowart 5 SV, 3.47 ERA, .211 AVG against

Sticks:
Andy Smith (.361/.457) and Chase Herrin (.384/.466) set the tone at the top of the order, and then comes the gauntlet:

Dakota Bodree .338, 10 doubles
Bo Bell .441, 10 HR, 51 RBI (maybe the best power hitter in the ASC)
Shane Bennett .364, 5 HR
Stuart Magee .450, 6 HR, 36 RBI
Brannon Walls .364

Keys to Success:
> Get ahead in the account and hit Orosey's fastball. Save for Herrin and Bennett they already strike out a lot and if they're working from behind, and the slider is sharp it will be tough to string together hits.
> Play D on the left side. Bennett and Bodree have made their fair share of errors, and the speed at the top of TLU's order will certainly take advantage of any bobbles.
> Keep it close on the mound. Seamen doesn't have to be extra special, he just has to pitch how he has all season, and trust that his offense (the best in the ASC) will find a chink in Orosey's armor at some point.
> Run. Early and often. You're probably not going to let a lot of chances to score, particularly early, so manufacturing runs on the base paths is imperative.

--------------------------------

Texas Lutheran
Team AVG = .329 (5th)
Team ERA = 4.23 (1st)

Rotation:
Brad Orosey 10-1, 2.94 ERA
Jeremiah Steinart 8-2, 3.28 ERA
Travis Staggs 5-2, 5.28 ERA

Closer:
Tom Hembree 7 SV, 2.16 ERA

Sticks:
Not quite the pop in the middle of the lineup that MC has, but this is a balanced line-up capable of stringing together a big rally after innings of being relatively quiet.

Chris Green (.299) has great RBI potential (34) at the top of the order, and Andrew Femath (.410/.500) has a penchant for getting on base and swiping bags (19-20).

In the 3-slot Ryan Nokelby (.431/.505) is one of the best pure hitters in the ASC, and he's putting the ball in play (28:6 BB/K ratio).

Clay Childress (.342 7 HR, 40 RBI) is swinging a hot bat lately out of the cleanup spot and he's followed by Darwin Lucero (.388). Cody Miller and Jason McGill always have potential to leave the yard, and Evan Curtis (.352) is solid in the 9 hole.

Keys to Success:
> Orosey. He has the best stuff in the ASC, likely the west region, but he has to shake off last week and command it.
> Be resilient. Like TLU teams of the past, this team has shown they're not going to lay down and quit and they need to bring that mentality this weekend.
> Prevent the big inning. MC can flat out swing it, and they're capable of putting up huge innings so it'll be important for TLU to play intelligently and adjust to the course of the game. At some point this may mean exchanging outs for runs.
> Use the pen effectively. With MC's Martin and Prescott out (if he comes back what an X factor), TLU has the deepest pen, and they can throw a lot of different looks at an offense. This could be critical if they get in a shoot out.


Your thoughts!?

JSG

IF TLU Brad Orosey holds MC to 3 runs or less then TLU wins. If not MC could win the ASC

[TexasBB]

I was just on the ASC tournament website and saw something interesting. Since 2001 when  the ASC started participating in the NCAA DIV III, they have had only 1 at large birth and that was UTD in 2007.  I was actually shocked by that stat. That says alot about the West region. My old conference in Ohio the OAC is expected to have 3 teams in the tournament this year. There are far more DIV III teams in the north east but the OAC is not nearly as big as the ASC.

[swbaseball3]

Crash:

Very nice write up on the TLU/MC series.  A couple of things to note.  MC plays WAY better at home then they do on the road.  Not sure why that's the case but it's a fact.

Another thing is I'm not so sure about the stats from MC.  The East is pretty week and if I'm not mistaken, about a month ago, MC was hitting .317 as a team.  Certainly beating up on bad teams can raise that average a bunch.  Which leads me to the next comment about pitching.  Is it reasonable to think that the great stats on the East side can be bolstered by pitching against weak teams?

Hey, Seaman is good.  I get that but if MHB pounded him around, do you think he'd have been 10-1 in the West?  Just a thought.  Compare that to Orosey.  He's had three bad outings in two years.  Two against UTD.  That means that he's handled everyone from the West plus UTT in two years.  BTW, Orosey beat MC last year giving up only 5 hits ion a complete game.

[TexasBB]

TLU will be looking for redemption this year as they underperformed in last years tournament. They lost two tough games to UTT and UTD and were knocked out early. They will not want a repeat so I expect them to be very tough to beat.

[Ralph Turner]

I was just on the ASC tournament website and saw something interesting. Since 2001 when  the ASC started participating in the NCAA DIV III, they have had only 1 at large birth and that was UTD in 2007.  I was actually shocked by that stat. That says alot about the West region. My old conference in Ohio the OAC is expected to have 3 teams in the tournament this year. There are far more DIV III teams in the north east but the OAC is not nearly as big as the ASC.

They don't have a "play-in" tourney which is what the ASC tourney actually is. 

Also, we have an isolated conference, so our SOS is rarely much above .500.  (Those same SOS challenges face the SCIAC and the NWC, but they do not have a post-season tourney.  We just need about five more years and about 3 more members so we can split!)

[TexasBB]

Five more years - omg! The kids are the ones that are paying the price as they are being left out.

Another stat. There are 15 current members in the ASC playing baseball this year.  There are a total of 39 members in the west regional which means the ASC accounts for almost 39% of the total. If the ASC only gets one invite out of 15 that means the remaining 5 invites go to other 24. If it was proportional representation then the ASC would get 39% of the invites or 2.34 - rounded to 2. That at least would be fair from a total participation standpoint. Certainly the ASC can field 2 deserving teams each year.

[golden_dome]

Another thing is I'm not so sure about the stats from MC.  The East is pretty week and if I'm not mistaken, about a month ago, MC was hitting .317 as a team.  Certainly beating up on bad teams can raise that average a bunch.  Which leads me to the next comment about pitching.  Is it reasonable to think that the great stats on the East side can be bolstered by pitching against weak teams?

Hey, Seaman is good.  I get that but if MHB pounded him around, do you think he'd have been 10-1 in the West?  Just a thought.  Compare that to Orosey.  He's had three bad outings in two years.  Two against UTD.  That means that he's handled everyone from the West plus UTT in two years.  BTW, Orosey beat MC last year giving up only 5 hits ion a complete game.

If you are going to apply that kind of logic, you have to apply it both ways. Jared Hopper dominated the ASC West with a 5-1 record and 1.57 ERA allowing eight earned runs. MC managed more earned runs (10) against him than the other ASC West teams combined. The kid is a great pitcher who shut us down last year, but nobody else was able to get to him.

With statistics you can usually find some to support any opinion. After playing a 40 game schedule and a couple playoff games, usually the combined stats are the most accurate reflection of the teams and players.

[CrashDavisD3]

Five more years - omg! The kids are the ones that are paying the price as they are being left out.

Another stat. There are 15 current members in the ASC playing baseball this year.  There are a total of 39 members in the west regional which means the ASC accounts for almost 39% of the total. If the ASC only gets one invite out of 15 that means the remaining 5 invites go to other 24. If it was proportional representation then the ASC would get 39% of the invites or 2.34 - rounded to 2. That at least would be fair from a total participation standpoint. Certainly the ASC can field 2 deserving teams each year.

This is how I would allocate the 6 spots for West Region in my view:

2010 numbers
39 teams 6 slots = 1 per 6.5 teams

SCIAC 1
NWC   1
SCAC  1
ASC    2
Pool B/C 1

But the West should have at least 7 not 6 spots. Based on Regional Rankings, National Polls, and OWP and SOS number I see.

[dp643]

Why do you keep acting Miss. College is a completely different team on the road? They are like 14-4 this year on the road. Also, they were a slow starting team last year and really brought it late in the season, and almost won the dang tournament.

Stat of the day since we are talking about road records:

Miss College road winning percentage .778
TLU's Home winning percentage          .773

[Just_Some_Guy]

I agree with dp643. The past is the past and this is a new year, and they've been good on the road this year.

He might be referring to the fact that MC is 1-7 at Katt Isbel since 2005, but this is 2010. Let's see how it shakes out. It should be a good game and a great tournament.

JSG

[golden_dome]

Why do you keep acting Miss. College is a completely different team on the road? They are like 14-4 this year on the road. Also, they were a slow starting team last year and really brought it late in the season, and almost won the dang tournament.

Stat of the day since we are talking about road records:

Miss College road winning percentage .778
TLU's Home winning percentage          .773

The last 5-6 years the team has not done as well on the road as at home, but honestly it's been several years since we've had a nationally competitive team. Tyler and TLU have had those teams, but we have not. Even last year we had great chemistry and tough kids who overachieved, but it's hard to win in this league on the road unless you have a lot of talent.

[swbaseball3]

Agreed that this year is a new year but 1-7 is my reference point.  As mentioned, TLU scored almost 50 runs on MC last year in Seguin.  Also, 4-5 years does show a trend and this year could very well be an abberation for MC.

Switching gears, I like Hopper but not nearly as much as this board likes him.  And, if I'm not mistaken, didn't Hopper pitch against MC at MC?  And if that's the case, wouldn't that go back to my original conjecture.

Fact...I think MC is pretty darn good.  They are certainly going to come to play.  If they play like the 1-7 team, well, the trend will continue.  They may not.  Knowing that Orosey held them to 5 hits as a freshman and he's at home, I would bet TLU if indeed I were a betting man.  If the games were in Clinton, MS, TLU would be in a heap more trouble.

[dp643]

MC is a completely different team now than they were when they got swept last year in Seguin. That was the point of me saying they started slow last year.

If we want to make prior years accomplishments as talking points for predicting outcomes this weekend, then I think Hardin Simmons should be the odds on favorite. I mean heck, in 2008 they swept TLU in Seguin. Make that 4-2 in the last 6 games in Seguin.

Good luck everyone this weekend. Going to be some good baseball played

[swbaseball3]

Just got an interesting report.  Wind blowing in tomorrow and a cool front comes in Friday night.  If that's the case, wind will be dead out to RCF on Saturday.  Don;t pitch to Bo Bell on Saturday, huh?

Good luck to all.

[Patriot_Pride]

ASC Tournament opens at 11 a.m. CST today from TLU's Katt-Isbel Field.

#18 UT Tyler vs Hardin Simmons - 11 a.m.

Preview: http://www.uttyler.edu/athletics/baseball/news/2010/may06-10.html

TLU vs #8 Mississippi College - 3 p.m.

ASC Championship Tournament Central
http://www.ascsports.org/news/2010/4/29/SB_0429100447.aspx