BB: ASC: American Southwest Conference

[Ralph Turner]

Which new pitcher for CTX?

[dp643]

Scott Hays, LHP transfer from Alabama

Rumor has it he was coming off an injury which cost him the first part of the season.

Hes thrown 12 2/3 innings all year, of which 6 came in a game three start vs LA College.

[hatbaseball]

Tyler will make McMurry wish they hadn't won 4th place.

dp643 you obviously don't have much faith in McMurry.  In your prediction for the 1st round you said "Tyler would make McMurry wish they hadn't won 4th place" and now your saying "McMurry has no chance whatsoever of winning"

Granted McMurry's record is not stellar but they have played a very tough schedule and gave away a number of games throughout the year that they should have won.  Last weekend against Tyler it looked like they may revert to the "give away" mode but they stepped up and pulled it out.  I'm obviously biased but McMurry is much better than their record indicates. 

I've been to most of the games this season and too many times we were walking away saying "how on earth did we lose that game".  The coaches made a few changes late in the season that have made huge differences in the team's play and attitude.  After taking out Tyler last weekend they now truly believe that they can win.  That was a big problem early in the season.

I don't know if McMurry will win it all this weekend but I think they have as good as chance as anyone. 

[El Hombre]

So you are saying Texas Tyler doesn't deserve a pool C bid?  Even with the season they have had?  

Thanks for the response, playball.

The season that they had will be evaluated by the Regional and National Committees by these cirtieria.


Primary Criteria
The primary criteria emphasize regional competition (all contests leading up to NCAA championships); all criteria listed will be evaluated (not listed in priority order).  My italics.

• Win-loss percentage against regional opponents.         30-6  (.833)
• Strength-of-schedule (only contests versus regional competition). 480; nationally, we see .530-.550 in the better teams.    
- Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OWP).   0.463  - They did not play anyone good in non-division games.
- Opponents' Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OOWP).  0.512*
• See Appendix B for explanation of OWP and OOWP calculations. Link to West Region SOS
• In-region head-to-head competition.                              They played no ranked teams in the West Region.
• In-region results versus common regional opponents.   They played no ranked teams in the West Region.
• In-region results versus regionally ranked teams. They played no ranked teams in the West Region.
• Ranked opponents are defined as those teams ranked at any time of the rankings/selection process.  They played no ranked teams in the West Region.
• Conference postseason contests are included.  They were swept by a team that was 15-25 in the first round.
• Contests versus provisional and reclassifying members in their third and fourth years shall count in the primary criteria.  N/A
Provisional and reclassifying members shall remain ineligible for rankings and selection.

*The ASC is a closed system. Everyone in the ASC has an OOWP around 0.500.  You have to find 3-6 games in non-conference, preferably from the west coast or other in-region (non-Texas)  that are against strong respected programs to help this number.  (Just a fact of life for the ASC.)

#5 Ranking in Top 25 poll is not a criterion.

Ralph -
Does the D3 Baseball.com/NCBWA "Top 25" Rankings figure into the bid process at all?  There is a lot of discussion about UTT not receiving a Pool C bid, however they are still ranked #11 in the Top 25?

[Ralph Turner]

So much for the West being weaker than the East. I guess HSU has to be the favorite next weekend.

Tyler will make McMurry wish they hadn't won 4th place.

dp643 you obviously don't have much faith in McMurry.  In your prediction for the 1st round you said "Tyler would make McMurry wish they hadn't won 4th place" and now your saying "McMurry has no chance whatsoever of winning"

Granted McMurry's record is not stellar but they have played a very tough schedule and gave away a number of games throughout the year that they should have won.  Last weekend against Tyler it looked like they may revert to the "give away" mode but they stepped up and pulled it out.  I'm obviously biased but McMurry is much better than their record indicates. 

I've been to most of the games this season and too many times we were walking away saying "how on earth did we lose that game".  The coaches made a few changes late in the season that have made huge differences in the team's play and attitude.  After taking out Tyler last weekend they now truly believe that they can win.  That was a big problem early in the season.

I don't know if McMurry will win it all this weekend but I think they have as good as chance as anyone. 

Hey, hat!  Welcome back after a long vacation.

I will give dp643 some credit for acknowledging the results of his predictions.   

Honestly, I think that the best way for McMurry to win the ASC was to be the 4th.  I like their draw.   

[Ralph Turner]

No, El Hombre. The Top 25 has no bearing on the Poll; it is not one of the criteria.

Tyler just laid an egg in the McMurry series.  UTT had beaten McMurry on the same field a week earlier, and then did not play a weekend series against Jarvis Christian, for whatever reason.  (No malice assumed.)

Practically speaking, the Conference tourneys are the start of the playoffs.

We have 15 Pool C bids, courtesy of the March Madness TV Money. I think that West Region will get one Pool  AC bid.  We will need to see how the ASC tourney falls out to see whom that will be.

Correction -- one Pool "C" bid.  Thanks to Ron Boerger.

[BigPoppa]

Is the "once-ranked/always-ranked" system applied to regionally ranked opponents?

[Ron Boerger]

I think that West Region will get one Pool A bid.

I know our good friend Ralph meant Pool C bid.   There would be quite an uproar if there was only one Pool A in the West.   

[El Hombre]

No, El Hombre. The Top 25 has no bearing on the Poll; it is not one of the criteria.

Tyler just laid an egg in the McMurry series.  UTT had beaten McMurry on the same field a week earlier, and then did not play a weekend series against Jarvis Christian, for whatever reason.  (No malice assumed.)

Practically speaking, the Conference tourneys are the start of the playoffs.

We have 15 Pool C bids, courtesy of the March Madness TV Money. I think that West Region will get one Pool A bid.  We will need to see how the ASC tourney falls out to see whom that will be.

Thanks for the update.  
It appears that the D3Baseball.com/NCBWA Top 25 rankings is based on their own personal assessment, whereas the "NCAA bid selection committee" uses the criteria you have previously listed.  Otherwise, UTT would appear to be a lock for a bid.  It is hard to imagine that the NCBWA would rank UTT so high, yet the NCAA would deny them a bid.  Is this a fair assessment?  Also, (if I may ask) do you feel UTT should receive a pool C bid?  

[dp643]

I definitely ate crow after that prediction. But on paper you can't blame me for the prediction.

I am pulling for mcmurry to win it all because they do continue to prove me wrong.

You are absolutely right in saying they have as good a chance as anyone right now.

[Just_Some_Guy]

I'll take UT-Dallas. They won't face anyone the caliber of Orosey this weekend and I think the #1/#2 combo of Dallas/Prestridge gives them an excellent chance to be the undefeated team after the 1st two games. That's a tough hill to climb.

UTD over Concordia in the final game.

JSG

[TexasBB]

Looking back I think the 2 games that McMurrey had against UTT at the end of the season really benefited the Warhawks. The coaching staff learned something and the team having played UTT also leaned something. Those two games were close and if nothing else showed McMurrey that UTT had weaknesses and gave them the confidence that they could compete with them. Keep in mind going into the weekend conference tournament UTT had not lost a single game to a west division opponent.

I think it was smart on the part of the Warhawks coaching staff to schedule those two games.

Texas BB

[OshDude]

Is the "once-ranked/always-ranked" system applied to regionally ranked opponents?

Yes. The only way that "once ranked, always ranked" comes into play is when figuring results against regionally ranked opponents.

[Ralph Turner]

No, El Hombre. The Top 25 has no bearing on the Poll; it is not one of the criteria.

Tyler just laid an egg in the McMurry series.  UTT had beaten McMurry on the same field a week earlier, and then did not play a weekend series against Jarvis Christian, for whatever reason.  (No malice assumed.)

Practically speaking, the Conference tourneys are the start of the playoffs.

We have 15 Pool C bids, courtesy of the March Madness TV Money. I think that West Region will get one Pool A bid.  We will need to see how the ASC tourney falls out to see whom that will be.

Thanks for the update.  
It appears that the D3Baseball.com/NCBWA Top 25 rankings is based on their own personal assessment, whereas the "NCAA bid selection committee" uses the criteria you have previously listed.  Otherwise, UTT would appear to be a lock for a bid.  It is hard to imagine that the NCBWA would rank UTT so high, yet the NCAA would deny them a bid.  Is this a fair assessment?  Also, (if I may ask) do you feel UTT should receive a pool C bid?  

UTT has a history of being a quality team, Top 50-75, every year, at the top of a very competitive conference.

UTT had the quick start and were #11 by the Feb 27th poll.  The teams ahead of them in the early season rankings began to fall, and UTT began to float up with each victory.  It is something to go undefeated thru the first 21 games as of March 22.

Here were the games at the beginning of the season:

ASC-West#6, W#8, a very average New Engalnd team on spring break trip, W#5, W#3, one game against SCAC W #3, East T-6, E#7, NAIA school.

The second half of the season was where all of the challenges were.

It is hard to gauge a team when they are undefeated against suspect competition and every one ahead of them is losing.  So a team can "float up " in the Poll, 1-2 slots per week.

[hatbaseball]

Looking back I think the 2 games that McMurrey had against UTT at the end of the season really benefited the Warhawks. The coaching staff learned something and the team having played UTT also leaned something. Those two games were close and if nothing else showed McMurrey that UTT had weaknesses and gave them the confidence that they could compete with them. Keep in mind going into the weekend conference tournament UTT had not lost a single game to a west division opponent.

I think it was smart on the part of the Warhawks coaching staff to schedule those two games.

Texas BB

I agree that those 2 games vs UTT late in the season ended up being a big plus for McMurry.  At the time we all thought it was not good scheduling.  The McMurry players didn't like it either but by facing UTT before the playoffs the players came away thinking that UTT was very beatable.  Those 2 late season games really meant nothing to McMurry so they played a lot of different players the 2nd game but they definitely benefited.