BB: ASC: American Southwest Conference

[MCM Gangster]

Hambone were you at the games this weekend down in Austin?

[mcm_sid]

Derek David's seven-game streak of home runs is an NCAA Division III record. He passed Eric Heise of Ohio Wesleyan who hit homers in six consecutive games from March 8-12, 1998.

David's streak began with a homer against Trinity on March 25. He is 18 for 31 during the stretch with 10 home runs, 15 runs scored and 20 RBI.

The NCAA Division II record is 7, the NCAA Division I record is 8. David will try to tie the all-division record Tuesday night against Wayland at home.

I'll post the release later, but just wanted to pass along some pertinent info. He also has an 11-game hit streak - teammate Voorhees has a 16-game hit streak.

Here is the link to the release: http://athletics.mcm.edu/News/baseball/2008/4/7/040708bsb.asp

I will update again later with quotes from Head Coach Lee Driggers and Josh Lee

I said Tuesday night earlier, but McMurry's game time is actually 2 p.m. at Driggers Field. Sorry for the confusion, here's the livestats link: http://livestats.internetconsult.com/mcmurry/baseball

[mcm_sid]

Houston Chronicle Coverage of Derek David

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/headline/sports/hso/5682357.html

The AP also picked up a very abbreviated version of the story and I've seen it on USAToday.com, SportingNews.com, Star-Telegram.com, and the CollegeBaseballBlog.com.

Here's the AP version on the FW Star Telegram

http://www.star-telegram.com/447/story/567220.html

[CUAfan]

Good luck to Derek David today, let's bring that record to the ASC!

I finally got my ASC numbers done from the past weekend, and they include a major change to the way I rank pitchers in two areas, BaseRun Average and VORP. One thing that had been bothering me was that it was clear that some pitchers, for whatever reason, received better defensive support than others, even pitchers on the same team. This difference in defensive support, obviously, was impacting the number of hits different pitchers gave up, which had an impact on their BaseRun Average that was not the pitcher's fault. Therefore, what I did to alleviate that was give every pitcher the same defensive support. The way I did that was to calculate the number of balls in play a pitcher/team gave up, then calculate the number of those balls in play that would have fallen for hits, given an average defense. Using the new number of hits, I re-calculated everyone's BaseRun total and average, which gives a defensively-neutral measure of pitcher performance that I use for BaseRun Average and pitcher VORP. It's not totally perfect, but it's as close as I think it is possible to get for college players.

Starter DICE
B. Holland, UTT - 1.86, 68.2 IP
B. Booher, UTT - 2.65, 53.2
C. Curry, MCM - 2.70, 50.1
T. Koch, UO - 2.74, 50.0
T. Williams, MC - 2.85, 41.1

Starter DBsRA (this is the new Defense-neutral BaseRun Average)
B. Holland, UTT - 2.98, 68.2 IP
C. Curry, MCM - 3.38, 50.1
B. Booher, UTT - 3.48, 53.2
T. Koch, UO - 3.55, 50.0
C. Dixon, UO - 3.63, 42.2

Starter VORP
B. Holland, UTT - 36.45, 68.2 IP (most VORP in the league by 6 runs, all players)
B. Booher, UTT - 25.54, 53.2
C. Curry, MCM - 24.51, 50.1
M. Cox, UTD - 24.41, 62.2
T. Koch, UO - 23.39, 50.0

Reliever DICE
K. Evans, UTT - 1.93, 9.1 IP
B. Ziegler, UTT - 1.95, 26.2
T. Mayeux, LC - 2.40, 15.0
K. Barton, HSU - 2.68, 31.1
J. Scheuring, UO - 2.93, 14.2

Reliever DBsRA
B. Ziegler, UTT - 2.57, 26.2 IP
J. Scheuring, UO - 2.79, 14.2
B. Morgan, LC - 3.13, 15.0
K. Evans, UTT - 3.16, 9.1
J. Denson, MC - 3.44, 13.0

Reliever VORP (yes, I was suprised too)
B. Ziegler, UTT - 15.39, 26.2 IP
K. Barton, HSU - 14.91, 31.1
T. Staggs, TLU - 10.86, 34.1
B. Wesson, TLU - 10.77, 38.0
R. Conley, TLU - 10.05, 25.2

BsR/PA (Arrieta better be at least a 2nd-team selection)
D. David, MCM - .347, 156 PA
K. Fox, UTT - .346, 157
T. Williams, CTX - .317, 166
J. Arrieta, SRSU - .308, 116
M. Volz, UMHB - .303, 127

Speed
J. Villegas, UMHB - 14.52
D. Roux, LC - 12.62
L. Jones, MCM - 12.17
K. Harvey, TLU - 12.12
C. Baker, UTT - 11.89

VORP
K. Fox, UTT - 30.19, 157 PA
D. David, MCM - 30.05, 156
T. Williams, CTX - 26.01, 166
R. Finnell, UO - 23.17, 137
J. Villegas, UMHB - 22.89, 140

Team Defense
Texas-Tyler - .698
Mississippi College - .680
Texas-Dallas - .674
Mary Hardin-Baylor - .670
Ozarks - .669

Team BsR/PA
Texas-Tyler - .226
Mary Hardin-Baylor - .225
McMurry - .215
Ozarks - .214
Concordia-Texas - .202

Team DBsRA
Texas-Tyler - 4.19
Ozarks - 4.57
Louisiana College - 5.24
Mississippi College - 5.45
Texas-Dallas - 6.02

[Just_Some_Guy]

One thing that had been bothering me was that it was clear that some pitchers, for whatever reason, received better defensive support than others, even pitchers on the same team. This difference in defensive support, obviously, was impacting the number of hits different pitchers gave up.

Pitchers get better defensive support, particularly on the same team, because they pitch differently. Guys that work fast, throw strikes and let opponents put the ball in play frequently get better defensive support than a guy that works from behind, walks a lot of guys, and tries to strike everyone out.

That's part of baseball, and part of being a good pitcher.

And what Arrieta is doing is not going unnoticed. I haven't looked around the entire ASC of late (though I suspect at least Fox has better numbers at SS - though the ASC does teams for each respective side), but I also feel like he's at least second team.

And for the record, anything after second team is just dumb in my opinion. Especially because they sometimes put up to 4 honorable mentions at one position.
You end up with 6 of the 8 starters at an infield position in the conference with an award. I'm all for acknowleding players, but to me that dilutes what the awards are trying to accomplish.

JSG

[Jack Parkman]

I posted some of this on the national page but thought I should put it here too.

TexasBB-   I understand your questions on why the entire ASC is ranked below 20 is one simple thing.  The ABCA's #1 criteria is reputation.  I might be wrong here but the only TX school to ever made it to the World Series is Concordia in 2003 (not positive about the year, just a guess).  Every single year Trinity is always ranked high and they flame out in the regional.  Same with TLU.  I am not bashing the ASC at all because I know there is a lot of great baseball being played out there, but until those teams can make it to the World Series the rest of the coaches around the country will put them lower in the rankings.

All that being said.......I think this is the year Chapman gets knocked off the top of the Western Region mountain.  I am sure people will think I am crazy for this but I will explain.  I think it all comes down to one simple thing:  Chapman's pitching is not as good and deep as it has been in the past.  In 25 games, 22 of them have been started by the same three pitchers.  Chapman often has the luxury of matching up their top guys with everyone elses #4-5, but thats a whole different post.  Sigman and Clear have done a pretty good job of beating teams and Kitchens seems to be back in top form.  After those three you only have 2 guys that have thrown more than 10 innings and one fo them is the closer who has 33 innings.  I will stop rambling on now but you have to win 4 games to win a 6 team regional.  I just don't see Chapman having the arms to do it.

[Just_Some_Guy]

I am not familiar with the selection criteria used by ABCA but the fact that all of the ASC teams are rated below 20 says those making the selections are not all that famiiar with the talent pool in the league. McMurry did beat Chatham at Chatham this year and played them tough in their  two losses. McMurry has had a rough go of it in the ASC west. I think that alone tells how strong the league is. But the ASC has not won a national championship thus they continue to be rated lower than they should IMO.  At the same time being a Texan I am less familiar with the other teams. I do question the logic however of UTT at 27-6 and having swept 3 games this past weekend by a combined score of 43-1 to be ranked 23rd behind a team with less wins and 8 losses!!??  The same with the Ozarks who are 26-7 and ranked 30th?  An arguement can be made that those two teams have perhaps the top pitching staffs in all DIII.

When Campbell is in top form you can definitely make a case for UT Tyler's starting 3 to be one of the best weekend rotations in the country, but I don't know about top pitching staff in DIII.

Last year, without hesitation, I would say that they had the best pitching staff in division III, and possibly one of the top bullpens ever, but I think the bullpen lacks depth this year and I envision it getting them in trouble eventually. Maybe the ASC tournamnet, but a lot more likely in the regional -- or even in Appleton provided they can get past Chapman (and after watching what Chapman did to CalStEB I'm not convinced they don't win it again this year, Abilene or otherwise).

As far as Ozarks goes, Cameron, Dixon, Koch, Finnell and Scheuring have all pitched pretty well, but you're going to be hard pressed to convince me they're as good as they look on paper. They're gritty and they're competitive and frankly, I really like this Ozarks team and I am looking forward to watching how the rest of their season plays out, but aside from Dixon I think they could be a bit vulnerable come playoff time.

Do I think Linfield is better than UT Tyler, no, I don't. Do I think the ABCA has a reasonable rationale. Probably.

If we want to talk about pitching staffs, let's talk about theirs. A team ERA of 2.78 and average against of .225 -- that's just flat out obnoxious. Brian Clark (7-0, 1.93) has been sensational as the staff ace, Garrett Dorn (6-1, 2.82), Reese McCulley (4-0, 3.19), and Cameron Larson (3-3, 4.06) round out a DEEP starting rotation. One that, the nature of their conference, has enabled them to develop 4 starters (much like the SCAC). The bullpen has been used in relative moderation, but there's three guys with 8+ innings and sub 1.70 ERAs and .245 average against.

That's something to look out for in a regional tournament setting, no?

TexasBB-   I understand your questions on why the entire ASC is ranked below 20 is one simple thing.  The ABCA's #1 criteria is reputation.  I might be wrong here but the only TX school to ever made it to the World Series is Concordia in 2003 (not positive about the year, just a guess).  Every single year Trinity is always ranked high and they flame out in the regional.  Same with TLU.  I am not bashing the ASC at all because I know there is a lot of great baseball being played out there, but until those teams can make it to the World Series the rest of the coaches around the country will put them lower in the rankings.

For the record, TLU typically starts the season ranked high based on the way the previous year ended, but they have a propensity of falling out of the poll and remaining out the entire year, prior to coming back after winning the ASC and fighting through the regional to lose to Chapman '05 and '06.

I would classify '03 as a year they flamed out (when they were #1 in the nation, lost their conference tournament and then didn't receive a bid). '05 was a pretty ridiculously talented team, but I might even say they overachieved in '06 (and maybe even last year) when you compare their personnel on paper to other teams in the region and possibly even the ASC.

The bottom line is they've run into Chapman, and Chapman knows how to get it done, particularly at Hart Park.

All that being said.......I think this is the year Chapman gets knocked off the top of the Western Region mountain.  I am sure people will think I am crazy for this but I will explain.  I think it all comes down to one simple thing:  Chapman's pitching is not as good and deep as it has been in the past.  In 25 games, 22 of them have been started by the same three pitchers.  Chapman often has the luxury of matching up their top guys with everyone elses #4-5, but thats a whole different post.  Sigman and Clear have done a pretty good job of beating teams and Kitchens seems to be back in top form.  After those three you only have 2 guys that have thrown more than 10 innings and one fo them is the closer who has 33 innings.  I will stop rambling on now but you have to win 4 games to win a 6 team regional.  I just don't see Chapman having the arms to do it.

The West is so ridiculously talented and Chapman has withstood the onslaught the last couple of years. They've beaten TLU twice, they've fought back with one loss -- they did it last year with Pac Lutheran in the driver's seat. Their depth on the bump wasn't much better last year.

Do I think someone is capable of knocking them off? Certainly. I think you could make a good case for Linfield, UT Tyler and possibly another team or two, but as much as I want to, you won't catch me attributing their lack of success to lack of pitching depth because every year they seem to find a way.

Last year they had five guys that had thrown more than 10 innings all year. Four others recording innings -- 9 IP, 9 IP, 4 IP, and 1 IP respectively.  There's NOT MUCH depth there, but those guys want the ball. Kitchens and Drag were absolute BULLS. If Luzar isn't healthy they may lack the studs on the mounds because Clear & Sigman don't equal what Drag was capable of, I think Clear could get roughed up against good offensive teams, but he's been able to scatter a lot of hits. He's not going to overpower anyone.

Anyway, that's my .02 cents and it's probably not worth that.

JSG

[CUAfan]

Pitchers get better defensive support, particularly on the same team, because they pitch differently. Guys that work fast, throw strikes and let opponents put the ball in play frequently get better defensive support than a guy that works from behind, walks a lot of guys, and tries to strike everyone out.

Well, yeah, there's all that, of course, as well as flyball/groundball/liner tendencies. It is true, though, that if Booher or Holland were pitching in front of Schreiner's defense (just as an example), their numbers wouldn't look as good. The best way I could think of to deal with that was to just make it entirely defense neutral. There are better ways to deal with it I'm sure, but none that I could think of or that were as easy to do.

All that aside, I'm interested to hear what you think of the concept itself, JSG.

[Ralph Turner]

2007 Playoffs.  Chapman beats PLU twice on the last day, but UT-D and TLU last until games 10 and 11.

2006 Playoffs  Chapman takes two from TLU on the last day.

(Correction -- JSG reminds us that "it was TLU that had to take two from Chapman on the final day. They won the first one, but then Chapman won the second game to advance."  -- Thanks to JSG.)

2005 Playoffs  Chapman takes two from TLU on the last day.

2004  Playoffs National Champion George Fox knocks out Trinity in the Championship game.  McMurry is sent to Illinois and goes 0-2.

2003 Playoffs  Emory knocks out Miss College in the semis in the Central Regional. (Chapman wins)

2002 Playoffs.  Concordia-Texas advances and loses 5-4 (10) to Champion ECSU and to Lakeland 3-2.

2001 Playoffs.  McMurry falls 0-2.


In the last 7 years, we have one champ from New England, one from the Mid-Atlantic, one from the Mid-East, 2 from the Midwest and 2 from the West.  (None from the South, none from the New York, and none from the Central Regions.) The ABCA prejudice will remain until the ASC wins the whole thing.

[Ralph Turner]

UMHB sweeps Trinity 5-3 and 10-9.

Big wins for UMHB.  That helps UMHB if they are contending for a Pool C bid.

[Just_Some_Guy]

2006 Playoffs  Chapman takes two from TLU on the last day.

Actually Ralph, it was TLU that had to take two from Chapman on the final day. They won the first one, but then Chapman won the second game to advance.

JSG

[TexasBB]

I agree that until some ASC team wins the whole thing that they will not be given their due.  With more teams in the playoff and the opportunity that a team like the Ozarks may be in a different region gives them a better chance.  The West Region may be the most talented and since only one team per region can advance somebody who is really good will not make it out of that region. Winning the region is also alot about timing of the match-ups of the top pitchers. If you can match your number 1 or 2 against another teams 4 or 5 you have a much better chance of winning it.  Its too bad that the DIII baseball tournament can't be set up more like D-I basketball where teams are assigned to regions based upon a seeding arrangement as opposed to where they come out of. Thus a Chapman and a UTT could in theory at least both be #1 seeds assigned to different regions and therefore if they both kept winning would not play each other until the world series. 

[TexasBB]

UTT beat independent UD 15-0 yesterday in Tyler.
Zeigler and two relievers combined for the shut-out as the Patriots offense continues to bludgeon opponents pitching staffs. In their last 4 games the Patriots have outscored opponents 58-1 and their pitching staff has thrown 3 shutouts.

[Ralph Turner]

The regional rankings may have as much to do with bus trips and plane flights.

I am not sure whether Ozarks can bus to Abilene.  If they are officially within the 500 mile radius, then they would be sent to the Regional in Abilene.

Because plane flights are necessary for Chapman, the SCIAC Pool A bid, and the Northwest Conference Pool A bid, then they are coming to Abilene.  Trinity can be bused if they win the SCAC Pool A bid.  Millsaps and MissCollege might be sent to St Louis or Atlanta if there is a regional there.

[Ralph Turner]

UTT beat independent UD 15-0 yesterday in Tyler.
Zeigler and two relievers combined for the shut-out as the Patriots offense continues to bludgeon opponents pitching staffs. In their last 4 games the Patriots have outscored opponents 58-1 and their pitching staff has thrown 3 shutouts.

To put those UT-Tyler wins into perspective, they beat LeTU, who is 4-12 vs D-III schools and 2 of those wins were over UDallas.

U Dallas has begun a 12 game stretch versus UTT, Austin College (3) Schreiner (2) Emory (3)  and Chapman (3).  Let's see how many they win.

I think it surprised no one that UTT won those games by those margins.