BB: WIAC: Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[bleedpurple]

Don't ask me, cubs.  I'm still trying to figure out how you can play a team three times in a regional at a neutral site and be the visitor all three times. 

I explained, the NCAA has it in for U Dub Dub.  Blame Pat Miller, it's his fault. 

I'm not sure when this record broke, but it was awhile ago.

(I know, don't feed the troll...)

[ElRetornodelEspencio]

Actually if you use a pure analytical approach and take opinions out of the equation you can use Massy Ratings they have the top three teams plus then next one number is number 6. You can argue about their algorithms as they tend to be skewed early in the season, but by now they should be leveled. I agree that you have to beat the best to be the best, but WW has a much easier path to the top championship flight. (assuming they make it through) I agree the eventual champion will come out of the A side also.

For ref:

http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s=cbase2016&sub=11620

Massey is bad on D3 baseball. I guess you didn't notice that he has Occidental #4 and they didn't win their conference and didn't make the regional.

Massey always overrates the West and South. It's been true for years. The only teams he has in the top 15 other than those regions are UWL, Cortland, and Keystone -- while he has teams like LaGrange, Concordia, Linfield, TX Lu in the top 16. I mean come on, Centenary, Chapman, East Texas Baptist, Redlands and freaking Pacific all in the top 22 over Fisher and La Roche? That should tell you all you need to know.

My guess is that Massey gives bonuses to D2 teams, and West and South teams play more of them and get bumps in SOS because of it, and because it's D3, he probably doesn't even know or care about the outsized effect as long as it makes his ratings better for D1 and D2.

[108 Stitches]

Maybe they are more accurate than you think.

Actually my point is that there are analytical ways to rank teams without people involved, you can always argue about the specific analytical approach, but east/west biases and opinions can be taken out of the process with a rigorous analytical approach.  I have not compared their D1 rankings vs the others that are available, but I am sure that whatever algorithm they use, they use it across the board as it makes no sense to hone one and not duplicate it.

[ElRetornodelEspencio]

Maybe they are more accurate than you think.

Of course you think this. Never mind that no west or south regional team in the NCAA tournament this year has ever won a national championship.

And the Massey ratings are like this every year. Pretty decent for other regions, but wildly out of whack for western and southern teams. Connection to D2, NAIA and D1 schedules seems the most likely explanation, considering how far out of whack his schedule rankings are with the NCAA's SOS. Teams back east don't play NAIA/D2 anymore -- it used to happen quite a bit.

I'm sorry, you have to be delusional to actually think that a team that didn't even make the tournament is better than a 40 win team that won a regional. That's pretty insulting and pretty high-horse for a fan of a team that's been to Appleton once and didn't win anything there.

All pretty funny for a convo happening on the board of a conference that is sending two teams to Appleton and has multiple national championships to its credit.

[108 Stitches]

Deep breaths - deep breaths - let the inner for "forheaven" go...

My point is that there are analytical ways to rank teams so pools can be balanced properly and the cross over pools for losers would give the most balanced way to have a CWS with the current format. Nothing is going to be perfect and I agree in the end you have to beat the best to be the champion. At least this year the B pool is a much easier path.

[Ralph Turner]

I wish that Massey would publish his data with the confidence intervals so we could see the real statistical evidence for the ranking. For those who have forgotten your college statistics, confidence intervals give the observer an idea of likeness or difference.

Massey #1 and Massey #25 may not be that different.

I do expect Massey #25 and Massey #125 to be different tho'

[108 Stitches]

ERE has a point regarding Oxy, and the spread is probably small between the top teams by the time you get to the end of the season. I am curious how their data skews teams higher in the West.  I actually may drop them a note and ask why that might be. 

[ElRetornodelEspencio]

ERE has a point regarding Oxy, and the spread is probably small between the top teams by the time you get to the end of the season. I am curious how their data skews teams higher in the West.  I actually may drop them a note and ask why that might be.

Oxy isn't the only one. It's a pretty bad skew that is highly unlikely to be even close to accurate.

Nice that someone dinged my karma before thinking I might actually know what I'm talking about.

And there's nothing easy about either half of the draw. Each side has one team that's previously won a championship.

[108 Stitches]

I will give you a +1 to offset it...

"Previously" means nothing this year, you play the team on the field not last years or one from 10 years ago.

I sent Massy an email asking him about the issue, will be interesting in what he comes back wtih.

[ElRetornodelEspencio]

I wish that Massey would publish his data with the confidence intervals so we could see the real statistical evidence for the ranking. For those who have forgotten your college statistics, confidence intervals give the observer an idea of likeness or difference.

Massey #1 and Massey #25 may not be that different.

I do expect Massey #25 and Massey #125 to be different tho'

Well, you can do this just be looking at the raw rating itself. Or power rating, whichever you prefer.

The difference between #1 and #3 is as more than the difference between #3 and #22. Of course that's in large part the impact in the West region, and the #1 ranked team having played in the West regional.

But the difference between #1 and #25 is .85. To get that difference again, you have to go all the way down to #177.

Interestingly, outside of the West and South regions, 6 of the 9 highest ranked teams are going to Appleton. UWL, Cortland, Keystone, Tufts, UWW, Fisher, Wooster, La Roche -- Oswego, Case, Ramapo, St. Scholastica, TCNJ, Buena Vista, Otterbein, Rose-Hulman, Marietta, Wartburg, St. John's, North Central, Wash U, Grinnell, RU-Camden are the rest of the teams in the top 50 outside of the South and West.  So if Massey could lick this skew problem, it would probably be a very good ranking, aside from the usual Massey issue with weak SOSs (which explains Tufts, Grinnell, Scholastica, Otterbein).

My guess is that if someone was to email Massey, he wouldn't know anything about the regions in D3, and he would defend his system in the absence of any "local knowledge" that would give him any greater insight. I've known other people that created computer rankings and it's like an inventor and their invention.

[ElRetornodelEspencio]

I will give you a +1 to offset it...

"Previously" means nothing this year, you play the team on the field not last years or one from 10 years ago.

I sent Massy an email asking him about the issue, will be interesting in what he comes back wtih.

6 teams that won regionals were the #1 seed. Fisher and Keystone were both moved out of their home regions for competitive balance reasons (they didn't have to be moved) and won. None of the 8 teams look at all weak to me (and that's not always true). Several of them have first team all region and region pitcher of the year aces and a couple of more you could make good arguments for.

[badgerwarhawk]

ERE has a point regarding Oxy, and the spread is probably small between the top teams by the time you get to the end of the season. I am curious how their data skews teams higher in the West.  I actually may drop them a note and ask why that might be.

Oxy isn't the only one. It's a pretty bad skew that is highly unlikely to be even close to accurate.

Nice that someone dinged my karma before thinking I might actually know what I'm talking about.

And there's nothing easy about either half of the draw. Each side has one team that's previously won a championship.

And I will give you +1 to put you ahead of the game because I think the whole karma thing is kind of stupid.   

[palum]

Nice article on WW's "Angel in the Outfield" former coach Jim Miller in the Ft. Atkinson Paper.

http://www.dailyunion.com/sports/article_3a56b078-21ce-11e6-a593-87c1084af042.html

[Baseball Geek]

ABCA All Region teams posted:  http://abca.org/awards/all-region/2016/2016_ncaa_d3_all-region

[badgerwarhawk]

ABCA All Region teams posted:  http://abca.org/awards/all-region/2016/2016_ncaa_d3_all-region

15 of 50 are from the WIAC.  Congrats to all named.