BB: NWC: Northwest Conference

[wildcat11]

Thomassen follows up with his own complete game shutout, Cats win 9-0. And the conference race is even more muddled now!

Huge day for the two senior pitchers.

Haddeland:9 IP, 7 K, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 H
Thomassen: 9 IP, 9 K, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 H

0 Errors as well.  When the 'Cats are on their game.....

[wildcat11]

Huge sweep for the 'Cats over Whitworth. Puts Linfield right back into the mix.

[WestisBest]

It's a good thing I don't make a living predicting college baseball games! Or, for that matter, the NCAA basketball tournament. I'd be broke and on the streets.

I half-heartedly tried to figure out some scenarios based on the final two weekends of the season, but it is still far too complicated. But, here's what I do know:  PLU is still the odds-on favorite to win the regular season title and host the tournament. That's based on their remaining series at UPS and hosting Lewis & Clark. Linfield is hot on the Lutes' heels and Whitworth is still very much alive for the conference title.

If, and this is a huge assumption, PLU sweeps L&C, and Linfield sweeps Whitman, the Lutes and Wildcats will still be separated by one game with series against UPS and George Fox, respectively, to determine the league title.  But, if the two teams finish in a tie, PLU holds the tie-breaker edge, having taken 2 of 3 from Linfield earlier this season. Same goes for a tie between PLU and Whitworth, which has remaining series against Pacific and Willamette. If, the Pirates can sweep Pacific to stay close, they too, lose a tie breaker to PLU.

What that means is that if PLU takes care of business in its last series vs. L&C and can take 2 of 3 from UPS this weekend, it should host the tournament - regardless of what Linfield and Whitworth do.

Wow, looking back at this post, there sure are a lot of "ifs"!  Guess that really does capture this season in the NWC.

Oh, and UPS and Willamette play 2 today.  A split or sweep in either direction will not eliminate either team; although  a sweep by one or the other will certainly make it difficult for the loser to climb back into a post-season tournament spot. Not impossible, but unlikely.

[WestisBest]

I really like the post-season tournament as the vehicle for determining the NWC representative to the playoffs. Yes, some folks will say the tourney devalues the regular-season somewhat. But, for my money, I love the fact that with three weeks left in the regular season 7 teams still have a shot at the 4-team tournament. That creates a lot of excitement among the teams and really makes the final games worthwhile.

[Wildcat17]

Speaking of the upcoming championship, does anyone know the format the NWC will use?  Is it a straightforward loser out 4v1, 3v2 single game format, or a round robin of some sort?   

[Westside]

I imagine the tourney will be double elimination.

Game 1: 4 vs. 1
Game 2: 3 vs. 2
Game 3: Loser of G1 vs. Loser of G2.
Game 4: Winner of G1 vs. Winner of G2.
Game 5: Winner of G3 vs. Loser of G4.
Game 6: Winner of G5 vs. Winner of G4.
Game 7 (if necessary): Winner of G6 vs. Loser of G6.

And that's all she wrote.

That could also be completely wrong 

My early seeding prediction:
1) PLU
2) Linfield
3) Puget Sound
4) Whitworth

[WestisBest]

I thought I read or saw somewhere that the format is double elimination, like Westside has set out.

As an aside, UPS leads Willamette 16-2 in the top of the 7th of game 1.

[WestisBest]

Lunch time is a great time to pencil out "what ifs."  With only 2 weekends of the regular season left, the possibilities have shrunk a bit.  Yesterday's UPS sweep of Willamette helped - sort of.

I couldn't create a scenario where Willamette can snag the no. 4 spot in the conference, so I think the Bearcats have been eliminated from postseason consideration. But, I did put together a series of outcomes that lets Pacific, yes Pacific, sneak into that last playoff spot. But, Pacific ends the season with series against Whitworth and at Whitman. Although the Boxers have stepped up their game recently, for them to have a chance at the no. 4 spot. they have to sweep both series and a couple of other teams have to sweep. I think all those sweeps actually happening is too much to expect: possible, yes; probable, no. So, while there are technically still 6 teams in the hunt for 4 playoff spots, realistically, it's probably just 5.

The league focus this weekend should be on Tacoma where UPS and PLU square off. Because PLU finishes the season with last-place Lewis & Clark, the Lutes can essentially secure the top seed in the playoffs by going 2-1 against the Loggers.  But, if UPS takes 2 of 3, the door is left open for either Whitworth or Linfield to win out and claim the top spot.  By my reckoning, PLU, UPS, Linfield, Whitworth and George Fox all have mathematical shots at winning the regular season title.

I know I've said predicting isn't my thing, but this is too much fun, so I'll try it again.

● No. 1 seed - PLU.  PLU can lose 1 or 2 games and still have a very good chance of earning this spot. So, because it has the greatest margin for error, it seems most likely to end up in this spot.
● No. 2 seed - Linfield.  It holds the tiebreaker against Whitworth and has a series against Whitman in which it should take all 3 games.  Then the series finale against George Fox. One win in that series guarantees the Wildcats a top 4 finish and I think they'll get that one win and then some.
● No. 3 seed - Whitworth. Not convinced the Pirates can get it back together after getting spanked by Linfield. Plus they finish with Willamette and Pacific.  I have no idea whether Willamette will show up after seeing the last season collapse. I'm guessing not. Pacific could surprise the Pirates, but I'm thinking that with so much to play for, Whitworth will take at least 2 from Pacific.
● No. 4 seed - UPS.  Up until yesterday, I'd have gone with George Fox here.  But, the Loggers have some fight and their offense seems to be reviving just in time.If they take 2 from PLU, they are in.  They can even get here with 1 win.  But, the really trick part of this pick is that George Fox holds the tie breaker with the Loggers.

I've based my picks on the notion that Linfield, PLU and George Fox sweep their series against the two weakest teams in the conference. Given the way this season has gone, that may be the worst assumption of this entire exercise!

[wildcat11]

2nd sweep in a row for the 'Cats. Linfield has now won 13 of their last 15. Should be a great environment for the Fox series. Still a chance to at least grab a share of the NWC title.

[WestisBest]

The tournament is still not set. How in the world does Fox lose to L&C?

Although there is still one weekend of play remaining, it is almost guaranteed the tournament will be held at PLU.  The Lutes lead Linfield by one game, but hold the tie-breaker. And, I cannot see the Lutes losing 2 games to L&C next weekend.  The post-season tournament will be in Tacoma.

Loggers got pasted by PLU, but with L&C's win over George Fox, UPS still has a heartbeat. A Linfield sweep of George Fox next weekend will give UPS the no. 4 seed in the tournament. One win by George Fox locks up a playoff spot.

I have now seen all the teams play and PLU is the best team in the conference this season. Its pitching is the best in the conference, its offense is surprisingly diverse and they are playing with a lot of confidence. The team is well-coached and is playing with veteran confidence.  I've seen Linfield play 4 times and am not sold on the bottom half of its lineup, nor its no. 3 starter or bullpen. Too inconsistent.  Whitworth was rolling earlier, but seems to have lost something on offense the last three weeks.

And it probably won't make much difference whether George Fox or UPS reaches the tournament. Both will likely make quick exits. The Bruins are weak offensively, while the Loggers don't have enough pitching to run though the tournament.

PLU is the team to beat.

[wildcat11]

PLU is the team to beat.

This means that Linfield, Whitworth, or Fox will win the AQ.

[WestisBest]

Heh, heh, heh.  Nope, that means Linfield, Whitworth, Fox/UPS had better play better than they have thus far to beat PLU.

[Whatagame]

The tournament is still not set. How in the world does Fox lose to L&C?


PLU is the team to beat.

The L&C lefty who stymied Fox is the same guy who tossed a CG victory against Linfield......

I must agree with your assessment of PLU, however, Linfield does seem to be on a hot streak right now, playing very solid ball.

[Westside]

Sorry, but until Linfield is knocked out, they are the team to beat.

No one has been dominant this season and it really is anyone's tournament to win.

If everything stays the same, we will get:

PLU vs. George Fox
Linfield vs. Whitworth

Those are some great matchups:
Buckles vs. Bishop: Both of which dominated the other team in their first meeting.
Haddeland vs. Scheibe: The two best pitchers in the conference.

[WestisBest]

Just because Linfield has a strong tradition doesn't make it the team to beat. Tradition does not make a team a favorite - the players and coaches in each particular season do. And this year, Linfield is not the best team in the conference. Granted, no team has been a run-away train, but only one team has won every series - PLU.  That's a pretty solid body of work. And, to say that despite that strong effort, Linfield is still the team to beat, is disrespectful to the players and coaches at PLU who have gotten the job done when no other team in the conference can say the same thing.

So, no, Linfield is not the team to beat.