BB: SCAC: Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference

[Spence]

Millsaps scored 6 in the 8th to break a 6-6 tie and beat Trinity 12-6. For the first game of a series, the pitching was really subpar. Neither pitcher made it through the 4th.

The broadcaster was on his game for the full 9 though! Good broadcast overall.

[frank_ezelle]

(NOTE:  The Trinity--Millsaps DH has been moved up to a noon start today because of the weather forecast.  Getting in the entire 4 game series will be dificult.  Current weather forecast for today:  "A few showers this morning with numerous thunderstorms developing during the afternoon hours. A few storms may be severe. High 79F. Winds S at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 90%. " 

The game last night was a good one for Millsaps fans.  The bats came alive highlighted by Hunter Owen's 2-run HR to get Millsaps on the board in the 1st and Hunter Abram's 3-run triple to close out the 6-run rally in the bottom of the 8th. As Spence mentioned, both starters left early but that set up a great pitching duel between freshman Bobby Osburn of Millsaps and junior Ryan Poffenroth of Trinity.  Osburn only gave up 2 hits in 5 innings (both HRs by Nicholas Vera) and Poffenroth pitched well until the wheels came off and 6 runs scored in the 8th (5 unearned).

I have links below with more info but a huge play isn't mentioned in the stories or the box score.  Jason Hadley is playing with a fractured rib(s).  He was the runner going from 1st to 2nd when the shortstop made an error trying to get the force out at 2nd that would have ended the inning.  His 100% hustle and speed helped rush the play and create the error and he obviously paid a painful price for his aggressive play.  It might not show up in the box score but it was as big as any play in the game.

Millsaps story:  http://www.millsaps.edu/athletic/baseball/033007story.shtml
Trinity Story:  http://www.trinity.edu/departments/athletics/Baseball/Recaps/2007/TU-MC.htm
Box score:  http://www.trinity.edu/departments/athletics/Baseball/statistics/mc-tu.htm

[Spence]

Good point on Hadley...I was starting to nod off by that point lol.

Osburn was quite good. He's been pretty good all year...any chance of him supplanting some of their other starters? Hollenbeck's done well albeit not against the toughest matchups, but Buffa and Bogue have IMO been pretty mediocre for a team with regional and World Series aspirations. Meanwhile Osburn has like 21 innings now and only given up 4 runs on 13 hits. Almost seems like he could start and Tait "Wild Thing" Hendrix could relieve.

[frank_ezelle]

A reply to the pitching post by Spence but keep in mind that this is just the impression of a fan and by no means is it an expert opinion:

As an overall impression, I get more and more impressed with the Millsaps pitching each week.  I also keep in mind that Coach Page and Coach McCain have a knack of getting the best pitching performances at the end of the year when the games are tougher and more critical.  A team can't peak for the entire season so sometimes it is hard to judge a team or a pitching staff by the first half of the year.

Travis Bogue had a rough start Friday but he is getting more and more consistent in his outings.  Keep in mind that he didn't get a lot of innings when he was at Ole Miss and I don't know what his situation was at Meridian JC last year, but he was one of the top high school pitchers in Mississippi a few years back and I think he is starting to find that form.  When he is on form, he is very, very good.

Brent Buffa gave a typical performance yesterday, pitching a complete game in an 8-2 victory over Trinity.  He is going to give up some singles but not many runs, he'll throw a lot of strikes and walk very few, he will grind out the innings and he will compete from the first pitch to the last.  It doesn't look that impressive but he is all about winning and he is certainly a proven winner.

Jay Hollenbeck is very much like Brent except that he gives up very few hits.  He has had a couple of occasions where control has been a problem but I doubt that will be a problem at tournament time.  Jay proved himself under pressure last year with a 1-run allowed complete game over DePauw last year when Millsaps was in the SCAC loser's bracket and with a strong 7-innings victory in the winner's bracket finals in the Central Regional.

Tait Hendrix is a wild card more than a "Wild Thing" (I do get the movie reference).  Last year as a freshman he pitched 25.2 innings, had 25 K's, 20 BB, 2.45 ERA, and .198 B/Avg.  This year in 24.1 innings he has 32 K's and 22 BB.  The numbers show both the potential and the problem but he really isn't a wild pitcher.  He's always around the zone and he really isn't very far away from being one of the most dominant pitchers in the SCAC. 

Bobby Osburn has looked great so far but he seems more valuable as a reliever instead of a starter.  He's one of those guys who seems to be sharp right from the start which you need from a reliever and he gets a lot of strikeouts without walking many (20.1 innings, 15 K's, 6 BB).  He and Brandon Ingram give Millsaps a couple of really good middle relievers and Ingram has proven to be a quality starter if they need he on the weekend or for mid-week. 

That's probably more info than anyone wants to read and it is hardly an expert opinion but it is an honest opinion of what I've seen so far this year.  I think it is a pitching staff that will do well in post season play and it is one that can take Millsaps a long way.

[frank_ezelle]

With that long post out of the way, Millsaps won the first game of the DH yesterday and Trinity was leading the second game in the top of the 4th when the game was halted.  They will try to resume that game today and then play the 4th game of the series.  It has been raining a lot all morning but there seems to be a break in the weather so maybe they will get the games in.

Millsaps story on Sat. Games:  http://www.millsaps.edu/athletic/baseball/033107story.shtml
Trinity story:   http://www.trinity.edu/departments/athletics/Baseball/Recaps/2007/TU-MC2.htm
Box Score:  http://www.trinity.edu/departments/athletics/Baseball/statistics/mc-tu2.htm

Today's action is suppose to start at noon but that is tenative.  They will post changes on the Millsaps website at one of the following:

http://www.millsaps.edu/athletic/baseball/
http://www.millsaps.edu/athletic/baseball/schedule.shtml

[Spence]

Well, you can see them, and I can't (at least not until later this month when I get TDYed to Keesler, then I might...).

But my judgment on pitchers in general is that people overvalue pitchers who don't strike people out. The pitcher can directly impact the outcome of an at-bat with a strikeout or a walk. Other than that, he's relying on other people, and to some extent (what extent is debatable), luck. If you have a great defense, or are just very very good and consistent at getting batters to not hit it hard, you can still have success. The second part of that may not even possible for the pitcher to control (SABRmetricians would say it isn't, but it's debatable whether work based primarily on professional games applies to Division III baseball as well).

This isn't to say at all that pitchers that don't strike people out cannot be effective. I'm saying it's much harder to and the ones that can are uncommon. Most of them have excellent control and walk very few.

So this said, it shouldn't be surprising that I agree with you on Hendrix. Anyone that has that kind of strikeout rate (and did last year) has some stuff. His walks IMO make him a better reliever than starter (preferably coming in at the start of an inning, so that if he walks a guy it's not as big a deal).

My rule of thumb is if a guy gives up fewer hits than innings pitched, has around as many strikeouts as innings pitched, and walks less than 1 every two innings, he's probably a pretty decent pitcher. The farther up on that scale, obviously the better.

[Pauperboy]

Rhodes 12
Centre   1   Final

Chris Catalanotto picks up the CG victory for the Lynx and moves to 4-1 on the year. Chris gave up a solo homer in the 9th to avoid the always fantasy baseball favorite........CGSHO. This may be the first time all season where the dominating pitcher for a series wasn't named Holt or Flanagan.

So I guess with this 4 game sweep and losses by just about everyone ahead of the Lynx in the region, Rhodes should probably fall to about 8th in the region???

[FlightofthePetrel]

Oglethorpe takes 1 of 2 from Hendrix this weekend to end their 22 games loosing streak.  Also this weekend the Petrels were defeated by #4 Emory 12-4.  The young Petrels now stand at 5-24.  Up next is a trip to Sewanee that will most likely decide 3rd in the East and the last team to go to the Tournament.

[frank_ezelle]

It was a good weekend for Millsaps in taking 3 of 4 from Trinity.  The only loss was the second game of the DH which found Millsaps down 6-0 in the bottom of the 4th when the game was suspended till Sunday because of rain.  Millsaps never got it going against the Trinity pitcher Bronson who had the oddity of a complete game spread out over 2 days.  That game ended up 10-2.

Outside of that loss, the Millsaps bats were hot with 38 runs in the other 3 games.  I saw the first 2 games and listened to the last 2 on the radio.  I thought the intensity of the Millsaps team was much higher than in the previous home series with Austin and I'm glad to see the team prove me wrong when I said they were lacking a certain swagger this season.  I thought there was a good chance that they would prove me wrong and I hope they keep that intensity for the remainder of the year.

Speaking of the radio, apparently these were the last broadcast until the SCAC Tournament.  Listening on the radio is the only chance I really get to be a fan so I'll miss DP broadcasting the games for the next 3 weeks.  I think they still plan to do the one hour coach's show and that should be on tonight from 8-9 central time.

[frank_ezelle]

Spence--Your post on pitchers made me think about a famous Sports Illustrated article on hitting by Ted Williams.  One of the graphics showed the strikezone and it was overlaid with baseballs.  Each baseball was marked with a batting average.  This link gets you to that graphic:  http://www.tedwilliams.com/index.php?page=phtips&level=1#

Obviously a hitter is looking for pitches in the high batting average areas of the strike zone and the pitchers are looking to throw strikes in the areas that will produce a lower batting average or they want the batter to swing at the even harder to hit balls that are out of the strike zone.  The question is whether to let them hit a ball in the low percentage area or hope they will swing and miss on a ball out of the strike zone.  It seems like finding the right balance is the tricky thing.

For my money, I like the pitchers who throw a strike to the .250 batting average spots in the strike zone on the first pitch.  Most hitters will lay off and fall behind in the count.  I guess that's baseball 101 to try and get ahead in the count.  After that, do you throw low percentage strikes so they put weak balls in play or do you try to get them to chase a pitch outside of the zone?  With the Millsaps defense, I'd take my chances with making them hit balls in the low percentage areas of the strike zone and I wouldn't worry too much about the need to strike out batters.  And for a guy like Tait he has enough stuff that people will strike out on balls in the strike zone.

[Baseball_fan]

Sewanne takes one from Depauw, Rhodes Wins East.

With a big win by Sewanne (4-21, 1-7) over Depauw (15-11, 5-3) yesterday, and with Rhodes (29-4, 14-2) sweeping Centre (10-13, 4-4), Rhodes has now clinched the regular season East.

A huge weekend coming up for Sewanne when they play Oglethorpe. It will be a battle of which team will take the number four spot from the east. 

After Millsaps took 3 of 4 from Trinity it looks like Millsaps will easily secure the regular season West, and most likely Hendrix will find themselves out of the tournament, however I feel if they were in the East they could possibly pull off the number four spot. 

What do you think the crossovers will be?  If Sewanne gets the 4 spot, I do not like our their chances against Millsaps at all.  If Southwestern gets the 4 spot in the West, it could be a test for Rhodes perhaps.  I Rhodes really took it to Southwestern last year, but I am sure Southwestern will be hungry and will elevate their game, it could be quite a good series in fact.   

[Spence]

Spence--Your post on pitchers made me think about a famous Sports Illustrated article on hitting by Ted Williams.  One of the graphics showed the strikezone and it was overlaid with baseballs.  Each baseball was marked with a batting average.  This link gets you to that graphic:  http://www.tedwilliams.com/index.php?page=phtips&level=1#

Obviously a hitter is looking for pitches in the high batting average areas of the strike zone and the pitchers are looking to throw strikes in the areas that will produce a lower batting average or they want the batter to swing at the even harder to hit balls that are out of the strike zone.  The question is whether to let them hit a ball in the low percentage area or hope they will swing and miss on a ball out of the strike zone.  It seems like finding the right balance is the tricky thing.

For my money, I like the pitchers who throw a strike to the .250 batting average spots in the strike zone on the first pitch.  Most hitters will lay off and fall behind in the count.  I guess that's baseball 101 to try and get ahead in the count.  After that, do you throw low percentage strikes so they put weak balls in play or do you try to get them to chase a pitch outside of the zone?  With the Millsaps defense, I'd take my chances with making them hit balls in the low percentage areas of the strike zone and I wouldn't worry too much about the need to strike out batters.  And for a guy like Tait he has enough stuff that people will strike out on balls in the strike zone.

Great article, and I wouldn't expect anything less from Ted Williams. I think the Voros McCracken theory that pitchers have zero control over what happens (over time) once the ball hits the bat is wrong, and moreover, it's been proven so. But those pitchers are revealed by their low hits/IP, and usually as well demonstrate excellent control needed to consistently hit those cool spots (like Ted's low and away; but keep in mind college also uses metal).

I started to go into a DIPS (defense-independent pitching stats) analysis of Millsaps, but stopped because frankly I'm not sure outside of you and me how many would really care to read it. If you want to take this conversation off the board that'd be fine.

Suffice it to say that their excellent defensive stats (at least percentage-wise, haven't done a range factor type analysis of really anyone including Marietta) help their pitchers a lot.

[Lynx Tracker]

The Rhodes Express steamed into the Bluegrass State this weekend, sweeping a 4 game series with the Colonels of Centre College.  The Lynx Cats improved their overall record to 29-4, and are now the SCAC East Division Champions. On Sunday afternoon the 2007 Rhodes Baseball Team eclipses the school record for single-season wins. Undoubtedly, other school records will be broken by season's end. Hopefully, the Rhodes community will give these student-athletes the recognition they deserve.

I have seen literally thousands of baseball games in my lifetime. Rarely have I seen such solidarity, heart and true team play as I saw this weekend.  To the Lynx Cats one and all—thank you for a terrific weekend!

The Lynx [a.k.a. the Beast of the East] will resume play on Tuesday at 2:00 pm against Christian Brothers University.

[consultant]

Spence,
Clue me in on the DIPS analysis for Millsaps.  I'm quite interested. 

Millsaps got a solid series win versus Trinity.  The Majors appear to be swinging the bats the way they expect to be swinging them this time of year. 

Rhodes continues to play well, but Rhodes will not really be tested until the end of the month.

Should be an interesting post-season setting.

[Spence]

OK OK...dangit, don't y'all know I've got stuff to do?

This isn't *just* DIPS (which is BB, K and HR) which would be the McCracken approach...which over time probably mostly balances out. I also look at hits/IP and XBH/IP, sometimes they can bely the DIPS, whether it's by fortune or by plan. But more hits means more chances for errors, which brings us back to DIPS lol.

So with that.

Buffa -- 53IP, 7BB, 26K, 2HR, 9 XBH. A LOT of balls in play. Doesn't strike out many, walks even fewer. Almost half their team unearned runs are his, IMO a function of how many balls are in play. He gives up a lot of hits, but his very low walks though keeps him effective, but against a step up in competition you have to wonder if that would stay so. Last year it didn't, as he got blasted by Aurora in the regional.

Bogue -- 42IP, 20BB, 28K, 3HR, 9 XBH. Obviously, the first thing that jumps out at you is the walks. His strikeouts aren't *that* high, and he's given up as many XBH as Buffa in a LOT fewer IP (and H). This suggests he's getting behind hitters and then giving up hard hit balls, not a recipe for success.

Ingram --  Keeps his hits per inning under one, doesn't walk many, doesn't strike out many either. He's given up quite a few hard hit balls.

Hollenbeck -- This guy doesn't give up many hard hit balls at all. Lowest hits per IP on the staff, lowest rate of extra base hits as well. Walks and K's similar to Ingram. But I know he hasn't gotten the toughest of assignments as far as competition goes and has gotten hammered a couple times when he has.

Osburn -- He has very solid numbers, as I said before. His strikeouts look like Bogue's, his walks more like the other guys other than Buffa, and his hits like Hollenbeck's. 2 HRs is a concern, but those were both to the same guy in the same game and he's got no other XBH allowed. He doesn't have many innings, but he's pitched well and against some top end teams on their schedule.

Hendrix -- 24IP, 23BB, 32K. If this kid ever learned to throw strikes, you've got a lights out pitcher on your hands. Very high XBH rate and a pretty H/IP overall, so I think that's traceable back to the walks and pitching from behind. These kinds of K/IP numbers from a lefty are RARE and even though they're against the second-tier competition, still indicate to me that he's got potential.