BB: SCAC: Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference

[frank_ezelle]

Millsaps, Rhodes and QOWI--Post 1 of 4

I spent way too much time this weekend working on the QOWI (Quality of Win Index) for Millsaps and Rhodes and I thought I'd share the results for fans of those schools and for the baseball geeks in general.  Calculating the QOWI is complicated and it would be easy to make a mistake when doing it by hand as I did or doing it by computer as the NCAA does. 

I worked up the numbers for both Rhodes and Millsaps because simply coming up with a number for Millsaps didn't help me.  I needed to know how that number compared to a team in the South rankings and Rhodes was the easiest to calculate since they play many of the same teams as Millsaps.  If my numbers are correct, then the two teams are virtually tied and the difference might well come down to Texas Lutheran scoring 2 runs in the bottom of the 9th last night to tie their game with U. of the Ozark and then scoring 1 in the bottom of the 10th for a 8-7 victory.  Such is the world of QOWI.

Explaining QOWI is difficult and I might have an error in my basic understanding so correct me if I'm wrong.  A team gets points for wins and losses throughout the season against teams in their region.  The value of a win or loss is on a sliding scale based on the win-loss record of your opponents against teams in their region--you get more points for winning or losing to a team with a better percentage.  So to calculate this number you have to look at the opponent's schedule and figure their in-region record, not their overall record.  It's a pain in the you-know-what to do.  For more info go to page 10 in the handbook:  http://www.ncaa.org/library/handbooks/baseball/2007/2007_d3_baseball_handbook.pdf

[frank_ezelle]

Millsaps, Rhodes and QOWI--Post 2 of 4

QOWI for Millsaps (I think this is correct but that's not a 100% guarantee--neutral site games get the same points as away games so I'm listing them as "at".)

MS College--W--10 points
at Sewanee--W--9 points
at Rhodes--L--7 points
at LaGrange--LW--18 points
at Piedmont--W--11 points
Huntingdon--W--12 points
Emory--LW--20 points
at Huntingdon--W--13 points
at MS College--W--11 points
Austin--WLLW--32 points (Austin is 22-23 overall, I calculate as 21-19 in region)
at Southwestern--WWLW--36 points
at Piedmont--W--11 points
Trinity--WWLW--40 points (Trinity 19-22 overall, I calculate 16-16 in region)
at MS College--L--3 points
Rust--WW--16 points
at LA College--W--11 points (21-20 overall, I have 14-16 in region)
at Hendrix--WWWW--36 points (13-24-1 overall, I have <.333 in region)
at Oglethorpe--WW--18 points
at Austin--L--5 points
at Southwestern--W--11 points
at Rhodes--W--15 points
at Austin--L--5 points

Total = 350 points in 38 games = 9.2105 QOWI

[frank_ezelle]

Millsaps, Rhodes and QOWI--Post 3 of 4

Note: The handbook's definition of a neutral game is:  "A neutral game is defined as being in neither team's locale and, as such, is awarded as if it were an away game."  I don't know if Rhodes playing at Millington is a home game or neutral.  I'm giving them the point for an away game in the Emory games and the Trinity games to give them their best possible score.  If those are counted as home games then you have to subtract a point in each of those 5 games.)

QOWI for Rhodes:
U. of Ozarks--W--10 points* (see below)
at Huntingdon--WW--26 points
Hendrix--L--0 points
Millsaps--W--14 points
Maryville--WL--16 points (25-19 overall, I have 23-13 in region)
Sewanee--WWWW--32 points
at Oglethorpe--WWWW--36 points
at Piedmont--11 points
at Methodist--15 points
DePauw--LLWW--32 points
at Rust--W--9 points
at Centre--WWWW--44 points
at LaGrange--LL--10 points
Rust--W--8 points
at Emory--LW--22 points (would be 20 if this is considered a home game)
at Trinity--WLW--31 points (would be 28 if this is considered a home game)
at Southwestern--W--11 points
at Austin--L--5 points
at Millsaps--L--7 points

Total = 339 points in 37 games = 9.162 (slightly behind Millsaps)

* If U. of Ozarks wins their next 2 games Rhodes gets 2 more points.  Those points along with Millington being considered away games would give them 341 points in 37 games = 9.2162 QOWI (slightly ahead of Millsaps)

[frank_ezelle]

Millsaps, Rhodes and QOWI--Post 4 of 4

All of the above was probably way more than the average fan would want to know but the average fan probably isn't on this message board.  IF my calculations are correct, and that's a big IF, then I think Millsaps should be rated in the South QOWI.  York is ranked #3 in the South and they have gone 0-2 since that last ranking with a tough DH at NC Wesleyan today.  Methodist is ranked 4th in the South and they won yesterday over York but play a DH at Salisbury on Monday.  I don't know if they can be caught on the QOWI.

What I do know is that Rhodes and Millsaps both showed that they would be good NCAA Tournament teams this year and it is a real longshot that either will go which is a shame.  Rhodes split with Emory and Millsaps and they beat Methodist, Illinois Wesleyan and Washington--you can't tell me that they aren't good enough to play in the NCAA Tournament.  Millsaps split with Emory and Rhodes, they beat Illinois Wesleyan and they won 2 of 3 from the #10 team in the NAIA so you can't tell me they aren't good enough to be in the NCAA Tournament. 

All that being said, I understand that the NCAA has to have a system for picking teams and everyone knows the system before the season starts.  Some very good teams won't be playing in mid-May and I'm afraid Rhodes and Millsaps will be among those teams who are sitting instead of playing.  That doesn't diminish the fact that both programs were outstanding this year and have a lot to be proud of and a lot to look forward to.  Congratulations to all of those players and coaches.

[Ralph Turner]

Frank, thanks for the QOWI's.  I will check them this afternoon.  +1!

My first glance is Austin College Series may be worth 12 + 4 + 4 + 12 = 32 points for the home series.

Trinity for the home series should be 12 + 12 + 4 + 12 = 40.

If Millington is not the campus site, then I believe that you are right about it being neutral.

Fans, the good thing about this is that Frank put up here for others to double-check.

I encourage others to look at this and see whether you agree.

(Corrected!  Thanks, Frank!)

[frank_ezelle]

Ralph--On both of those the question is regarding points given for a loss at home to a team that has a .500 to .667 winning percentage.  I show that as being worth 4 points instead of 5.

[Ralph Turner]

Ralph--On both of those the question is regarding points given for a loss at home to a team that has a .500 to .667 winning percentage.  I show that as being worth 4 points instead of 5.

Thanks Frank!  I was still in "rapid basketball mode" where I was assuming home win and away loss would give 12 plus 5!

My bad!

Remember that we definitely confirmed that a road win over a .667 team was worth 13 points and a road win over a .668 team was worth 15 points! 

[frank_ezelle]

An interesting note for those who find the topic of QOWI interesting.  I was reading Mike Nelson's blog entry about his visit with Jim Page (http://seriousplaythebook.com/ -- it's the entry for 5/5).  He quotes Coach Page as saying the rule of thumb for postseason bids to the NCAA is that a team must average 9.5 to count on getting one.

So whats the difference between Millsaps being at 9.21 and 9.5 on the QOWI?  The Rust games have a purpose but they can't help your QOWI so let's say they were off the schedule.  Taking those two wins off the schedule and winning instead of losing a 10-inning game to MS College on April 3 would give Millsaps a 9.5 QOWI.  Are two wins and a 10-inning loss a good reason to say that a team isn't worthy of an NCAA bid?

And what is the difference between Rhodes being at the 9.162 that I calculated and them being at 9.50?  Well, for starters they could have removed three games from their schedule that weren't going to help their QOWI even if they won--the February home game with Hendrix and the two games with Rust.  Those games probably pull you down if you win and if you lose one it will kill you.  Take the loss to Hendrix and the wins over Rust out and the numbers become 322 points in 34 games for a 9.47 QOWI.  If the U. of the Ozarks win their next two games then the QOWI goes up to 9.53. 

Isn't it an odd set of events that Rhodes and Millsaps may be sitting at home simply because they did a favor to the Rust team by keeping them on the schedule and they each lost a 10-inning 6-5 game that really had no bearing on anything other than the QOWI? 

[Ralph Turner]

Frank, let me play devil's advocate.

The Rust in-region games boost the in-region winning percentage, so I think that the committee might consider that a wash.  Two extra in-region wins look good when you are trying differentiate yourself.  Playing more in-region games than your opponent helps, too.

As for the Mississippi College game, why should Millsaps play any in-region opponents and just take a chance on the SCAC QOWI being enough to earn a bid?

The challenge in the South is that we don't have much outside competition to boost our QOWI.  We are a closed system.

I am looking at McMurry's record against in-region opponents thru this afternoon's games.

They are 1-2 versus Chapman at home (6 +14 + 6 = 26 points, 8.666)
They are 0-3 versus TLU at home (6 + 6 + 6 = 18, 6.000;  10-12 in 10 innings, 5-8 and 1-3.)
They are 3-2 versus UT-D; 2-1 at home 1-1 at UT-Dallas; 12-13 (10); 15-8, 16-14; 3-4 (10) 14-4 (8 ).

McMurry has played 11 games versus West Ranked teams.

Millsaps split with Emory and with Rhodes, only 4 games total.  They are the only four games versus ranked opponents.  I think that the four losses to Austin College are what really killed your chances. 

The Capital AC (York, Salisbury, Mary Washington) has been a strong South Region conference in the few short years I have followed D3 this closely.  Inviting them for an in-season series, maybe a week in Atlanta, would be a good thing next year.  An alternative would be to get games from the IAC, the NCAC the HCAC or the MIAA from Administrative Region #3 to come south.

[frank_ezelle]

Ralph--All good points and no doubt losing 4 to Austin hurt, especially that last one.  We all know that there is a fine line between winning and losing and Millsaps lost the first championship game 9-7.  Most people feel that the pitching situation would have strongly favored Millsaps if they could have won that first game and then we probably wouldn't be having any of this conversation.

At the baseball banquet Saturday Coach Page had a thank you in his remarks to the parents who helped monetarily during the season to help make ends meet.  Like most D3 programs, the baseball team at Millsaps spends money without bringing in much and it does make it hard to travel to the ranked teams that are 5-states away even if you meet at a mid-way point.  This year they had an overnight in Memphis early, another trip to Memphis for the crossover, 3-nights of hotel bills on trips to Georgia, Southwestern, Hendrix, and the SCAC Tournament.  It's about 15 nights of hotel bills for an entire baseball team that charges no admissions for home games.

I think my gripe, and I'll let it drop after this, is the notion that teams like Rhodes and Millsaps aren't even in consideration because of their low QOWI.  According to Doc Nelson, Coach Page feels like they won't select anyone under a 9.5 QOWI.  On the national board I read where some feel it really takes a 9.7 to be considered.  As I pointed out in the previous post, Rhodes and Millsaps are below the 9.5 level because they won 2 games against a team with a winning percentage under .333 and because they lost a 6-5 10-inning game. 

Just to give one more example about the QOWI.  Hendrix was 13-24-1 overall which is above the dreaded .333 winning percentage.  They were 2-0-1 against U. of Dallas but those quality wins didn't count in region and consequently the Hendrix in-region winning percentage dropped below the .333 mark.  Suppose that Hendrix had skipped play the U. of Dallas and had picked up 4 in-region wins with home and away DHs with Rust.  All of a sudden Millsaps gets 8 more points because Hendrix weakens their schedule. 

Let's just say that Southwestern also weakened their schedule just a few games and it boosted them to .500 in-region.  All of a sudden Millsaps gets 10 more points added to their total.  So without changing any Millsaps results and simply by having Hendrix and Southwestern watering down their schedule just a little, Millsaps goes from a 9.2105 QOWI to a 10.22 QOWI which would probably have gotten them into the NCAA Tournament.  Am I the only one who sees the flaw in the logic that a team should be penalized because their opponents seek to play better teams instead of pushovers?

The same arguement could be made for Rhodes.  Oglethorpe played a tough non-conference schedule--4 games with Maryville and Huntingdon and 2 games with Emory and LaGrange.  If OU plays a weaker schedule then Rhodes gets 8 more points.  Add in Centre playing a weaker non-conference schedule and Rhodes gets 8 more points and their QOWI goes over 10 with ease.

Anyway, I've made my point so now I'll just get ready for 4 months on freedom from Millsaps photography--I certainly can use the break.  Ralph you do a great job on the message boards and thanks for all of your input--have a great summmer.

[Ralph Turner]

Frank, U Dallas is in-region for Hendrix.  Those games do count in the QOWI.  Both teams are West Region teams.

As for weakening the schedule, I would ask you to see whom you will play in D3 to give you the in-region opponents.  Trying to find real names to fill the schedule with D3 opponents is very tough.

I think that the South is just a tough region.  I think that you just cannot lose any games that you are supposed to win.  This summer, I want to look at the basketball Pool C bids, for which we have better data and see what burst the bubble for that team in basketball.  Of course, beating Austin College in the tourney...

As for travel, we at McMurry have the same travel challenges.  Every weekend trip is over night.  I will ask my friends how many nights McMurry spent in the hotels this year.

The QOWI is being replaced by the opponents' opponents' record.  (We have not seen the parameters that will be used.)  That is a variation of the QOWI.  The increments of change are much smaller than the QOWI,  but it does not change the concept of having a power index.

[frank_ezelle]

Ralph, thanks for that correction.  I took another look at Hendrix with that information and they were actually respectable when they didn't have to play SCAC West teams, going 11-10-1 in non-conference games.

Again if my calculations are correct, Hendrix was 8-18-1 in region games for a winning percentage of .315.  The tie came on February 4th.  Hendrix had already won the first two games in the 3-game series with the University of Dallas and the second game of a DH was call a tie with a 5-5 score after 6 innings.  If Hendrix gets a win there instead of a tie, Millsaps gets 8 more QOWI points because Hendrix moves to 9-18 in region to reach the all important .333 winning percentage.  A tie game in early February costs all Hendrix opponents 2 QOWI points per game.

I see where the ASC has the same problem with U. of Ozarks just dipping under .500 with two losses this weekend.  While I don't have a better system to suggest, I have to say that the system stinks when a team is penalized for scheduling opponents who have the guts to play a tough schedule and a team is rewarded for scheduling opponents who play a powderpuff schedule. 

[Doc Nelson]

Frank, Ralph,  . . . Today's Daily Dose column includes Rhodes in Pool C, a solid tenth of fourteen in that category.  That's something to cling to for a Rhodes fan.  Does it strike you as a reliable prediction? What about Millsaps, which is not on DD's list?

[Ralph Turner]

Frank, I ran the in-region wins for Hendrix.  I have their West Region record as 9-19-1, (.332).

Wins:  UDallas 2, LaCollege 1, Rhodes 1, USouth 1, LeTU 1, AC 1, SW 1, Ogle 1.

Losses:  LaCollege 2, U Ozarks 2, Trinity 4, AC 3, SW 3, M'saps 4, Ogle 1.

Ties:  UDallas 1

The 5 games against Blackburn IL, Clarke IA, Eureka IL and Elmhurst IL are not in-region because those schools are in Administrative Region #4.

Let's imagine the SCAC coaches huddled in the proverbial smoke filled room and made out "winnable" non-conference in-region schedules for each other.  Hendrix is in Administrative Region #3.  They could schedule 4 games versus Rust, also in the same administrative region, instead of the SLIAC schools, Eureka and Blackburn.  Clarke is going to the NAIA next year.

[Ralph Turner]

Frank, Ralph,  . . . Today's Daily Dose column includes Rhodes in Pool C, a solid tenth of fourteen in that category.  That's something to cling to for a Rhodes fan.  Does it strike you as a reliable prediction? What about Millsaps, which is not on DD's list?

Greetings Dr Nelson!

I have not wanted to over-promise in my predictions, but the carnage in the Mid-Atlantic and the predictable outcomes in this weekend's tourneys have helped Rhodes' case.

I was hoping for McMurry to slip into a Pool A bid, but they didn't and I think that UT-Dallas is secure.

I think you need an early out by Thomas More, Augie and Trinity CT in tourney play this weekend.

Also, Mary Washington hosts JHU on the 9th and plays at Villa Julie in a DH on the 10th.  They could really help or hurt their Pool B/C chances in those games, but JHU and VJC might pick up wins versus an in-region ranked opponent.  Those are essentially playoff games.  You might hope that Mary Washington does no better than 1-2.