Posters' Poll

[Mr. Ypsi]

Two orphans and seven outlier, much more conformity than I expected.

And while I expected that Hanover would remain an outlier, I'm quite surprised than Maryville never got any other support.  I VERY strongly considered them.

I was surprised that my Wheaton pick remained an orphan - they are on a roll lately.  (But thanks to the two voters for my Titans; out of loyalty I'm picking them for the AQ (why have to root against my own pick! ), but I don't think they currently deserve top 25 votes. )

Doing the PP is several hours of 'work', but it is also a lot of fun seeing the standings emerge.  Williams jumped out to an almost insurmountable lead, but WashU came within two points of overtaking them.  The race for third went back-and-forth several times.  Chapman led Willy Pat right up through 10 ballots, before a late surge made it look hardly even close.  Merchant Marine was a lowly 2-point orphan right up to the last two ballots; Defiance was never even named until the last 3 of 4  ballots.

[Gregory Sager]

Two orphans and seven outlier, much more conformity than I expected.

I'm willing to bet that your title of Captain Outlier is still secure, though. This was the most wayward week for me that I can remember, and all I had was one high outlier (Texas-Dallas), two ties for high (Carthage and Central), and a tie for low (Virginia Wesleyan). And the Central and Virginia Wesleyan outliers don't really count, because the selection range of the two teams was so narrow.

I nailed six picks right on the nose -- and only four of 'em were in the top ten.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Two orphans and seven outlier, much more conformity than I expected.

I'm willing to bet that your title of Captain Outlier is still secure, though. This was the most wayward week for me that I can remember, and all I had was one high outlier (Texas-Dallas), two ties for high (Carthage and Central), and a tie for low (Virginia Wesleyan). And the Central and Virginia Wesleyan outliers don't really count, because the selection range of the two teams was so narrow.

I nailed six picks right on the nose -- and only four of 'em were in the top ten.

Yeah, I don't see his title disappearing!  No one else had more than one orphan, and (while I haven't run through everyone), 7 outliers is probably safe.  I AM surprised that his Maryville pick remained an orphan.

[frodotwo]

POSTERS' POLL, Feb. 21, 2010:

                               Last Wk/Votes

1. Williams       318     {1 – 322}
2. WashU         314     {2 – 311}
3. St. Thomas   290     {3 – 280}
4. Guilford        287     {4 - 277}
5. Whitworth    274     {6 – 263}
6. EMU              250    {8 - 223}
7. UWW            241    {10 – 217}
8. UWSP           232    {5 – 272}(-40)
9. Midd              224   {12 – 192}
10 VaWes         199    {7 - 225}
11 Willy Pat       175    {9 – 220} (-45)
12 Chapman      164    {15 – 146}
13 Randy Mac    146    {13 – 163}
14 UT-Dallas      142    {16 – 110}
15 MIT               139   {11 – 205}  (-66)                     
16 Carthage      128     {20 – 81} (+47)                       
17 St.Mary's       125    {18 – 101}                       
18 St. Norbert     108    {14 – 147}(-39)                           
19 Wooster         105    {21 – 65}  (+40)                       
20 F & M                63  {16 – 110} (-47)                     
21 Cabrini             53   {25 – 24}                         
t22 SJF                 50   {23 – 30}                           
t22 Anderson       50    {19 – 89} (-39)                   
24 JCU                 40   {29 – 12}
25 Central           28    {29 – 12}

26 Merchant Mar  17    {28 – 13}
27 UMHB               14  {33 – 2}
28 Defiance           10  {NV}
29 Gordon              9   {33 – 2}
30 Oneonta St.      5    {NV}
31 IWU                  4   {24 – 25}
t32 Calvin              3   {NV}
t32 DeSales           3   {NV}
t32 Maryville          3   {NV}
t32 Wheaton         3    {35 - 1}
t36 Hanover           2   {NV}
t36 Rutgers-Newark 2  {NV}
t38 Brandeis             1 {26 – 22}
t38 Hope                  1 {31 – 9}
t38 Medaille              1 {22-34}

Dropped out: #27 Miss College; #32 CMS; #35 Stevens; #35 Wittenberg

[smedindy]

Holy cow!

I resisted the temptation to cast a #25 homer vote for Wabash, so I wound up that everyone in my top 25 is IN the top 25.

So much for iconoclasm...

[scottiedoug]

I follow you posters' work and enjoy it.  A question, though.  Chapman and Maryville are most likely going to be the Pool B teams.  Do y'all really think Chapman is 20 places better than Maryville?

[Mr. Ypsi]

I follow you posters' work and enjoy it.  A question, though.  Chapman and Maryville are most likely going to be the Pool B teams.  Do y'all really think Chapman is 20 places better than Maryville?

It's really hard to say (and, personally, I've only got Chapman about 15 slots higher ).  Chapman, being in d3 Siberia, has hardly played anyone of note, but keeps winning and has 'drifted up' as teams above them lose.  Maryville has no real signature wins, but more wins over decent teams than Chapman.  I think their two game losing streak a month ago hurt them just as they were beginning to 'drift up' (and losing early by almost 30 to the only excellent team on their schedule didn't help get them started).  Teams with excellent records against mostly weak competition are notoriously hard to rank.

Fortunately, it appears likely both will get to show whether they are as good as their records soon!

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I follow you posters' work and enjoy it.  A question, though.  Chapman and Maryville are most likely going to be the Pool B teams.  Do y'all really think Chapman is 20 places better than Maryville?

I don't think they're far apart at all.  Maryville may even be better.  Maryville started strong and seem to finishing strong.  Chapman has played no one of consequence for two months - tough to maintain a level of consistency with that schedule.

Really, we don't know how good either team is right now.

[Ralph Turner]

And we may not be able to tell anything more after the playoffs.

Chapman may play the SCIAC champion in the first round and the winner may be flown to a Top 5 Whitworth, which may get a bye.

Maryville may be sent to the ODAC/USA South/Maryville bracket as a #3 seed.  (USA South would be the #4 seed in the pod.)

[Mr. Ypsi]

I follow you posters' work and enjoy it.  A question, though.  Chapman and Maryville are most likely going to be the Pool B teams.  Do y'all really think Chapman is 20 places better than Maryville?

I don't think they're far apart at all.  Maryville may even be better.  Maryville started strong and seem to finishing strong.  Chapman has played no one of consequence for two months - tough to maintain a level of consistency with that schedule.

Really, we don't know how good either team is right now.

I know Hoops thinks they're close - he was by far the low outlier for Chapman, and cast the only ballot for Maryville!

But let's leave the Chapman schedule-bashing to OxyBob (who probably won't continue, since Pat has given him 'warning' about his obsession!) - once the SCIAC begins conference play, who can they schedule?  But you're right - though it is not their fault, being ready for the tourney may be difficult.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I follow you posters' work and enjoy it.  A question, though.  Chapman and Maryville are most likely going to be the Pool B teams.  Do y'all really think Chapman is 20 places better than Maryville?

I don't think they're far apart at all.  Maryville may even be better.  Maryville started strong and seem to finishing strong.  Chapman has played no one of consequence for two months - tough to maintain a level of consistency with that schedule.

Really, we don't know how good either team is right now.

I know Hoops thinks they're close - he was by far the low outlier for Chapman, and cast the only ballot for Maryville!

But let's leave the Chapman schedule-bashing to OxyBob (who probably won't continue, since Pat has given him 'warning' about his obsession!) - once the SCIAC begins conference play, who can they schedule?  But you're right - though it is not their fault, being ready for the tourney may be difficult.

Don't lump me in with Bob.  I didn't bash the schedule.  I was just stating facts.  It has to be hard maintaining a high level of play against lesser opponents.  Neither Chapman or Maryville gave us much by which to evaluate them over the last month.

[Gregory Sager]

I follow you posters' work and enjoy it.  A question, though.  Chapman and Maryville are most likely going to be the Pool B teams.  Do y'all really think Chapman is 20 places better than Maryville?

I don't think they're far apart at all.  Maryville may even be better.  Maryville started strong and seem to finishing strong.  Chapman has played no one of consequence for two months - tough to maintain a level of consistency with that schedule.

Really, we don't know how good either team is right now.

I know Hoops thinks they're close - he was by far the low outlier for Chapman

"By far"? HF had the Panthers 21st. I had them 19th. Two spots doesn't strike me as a leap big enough to qualify for a "by far" directed at HF.

Incidentally, it's an outlier for which I applaud Captain Outlier. It's been gnawing at me that even having Chapman at the modest position of 19th on my last ballot may be an egregious case of St. Peter Principle on my part.

[Mr. Ypsi]

I follow you posters' work and enjoy it.  A question, though.  Chapman and Maryville are most likely going to be the Pool B teams.  Do y'all really think Chapman is 20 places better than Maryville?

I don't think they're far apart at all.  Maryville may even be better.  Maryville started strong and seem to finishing strong.  Chapman has played no one of consequence for two months - tough to maintain a level of consistency with that schedule.

Really, we don't know how good either team is right now.

I know Hoops thinks they're close - he was by far the low outlier for Chapman

"By far"? HF had the Panthers 21st. I had them 19th. Two spots doesn't strike me as a leap big enough to qualify for a "by far" directed at HF.

Incidentally, it's an outlier for which I applaud Captain Outlier. It's been gnawing at me that even having Chapman at the modest position of 19th on my last ballot may be an egregious case of St. Peter Principle on my part.

You're right - I should have re-checked my tallies.  Until your ballot, the next lowest was 16th.  I agree they are probably too high, but they can only play who they have scheduled, and the schedule is largely out of their control.  They even tried 'hard' during the 'snowbird' days, but recent-power Elmhurst turned into a pumpkin this year!

[Gregory Sager]

Oh, I certainly don't mean for my comment to be misinterpreted as a dig at Chapman. The Panthers can't be faulted for being the recipients of the St. Peter Principle by me or by anybody else. You can only play the teams that are on your schedule, and Chapman's difficulties in filling out its schedule are well-documented -- and, as you noted, Elmhurst would've seemed like a great scheduling coup as recently as a year ago.

Nevertheless, the Chapman schedule is what it is. You can't get extra credit for good intentions.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Oh, I certainly don't mean for my comment to be misinterpreted as a dig at Chapman. The Panthers can't be faulted for being the recipients of the St. Peter Principle by me or by anybody else. You can only play the teams that are on your schedule, and Chapman's difficulties in filling out its schedule are well-documented -- and, as you noted, Elmhurst would've seemed like a great scheduling coup as recently as a year ago.

Nevertheless, the Chapman schedule is what it is. You can't get extra credit for good intentions.

True, but that means it is a guess as to how good they are, not that they should automatically be assumed to NOT be very good.  Who did Indiana State beat in 1979?  Who did George Mason beat a few years ago?

That's WHY the teams with great records against suspect schedules (or the wildly up-and-down teams like Randy Mac) are so difficult to place.  Chapman may not even be top 40, or they may be top ten - who can tell?

For schools like St. Mary's, St. Norbert, MIT, etc., I would never cast out a ballot just for putting them top 10 or leaving them off completely - who knows?