Posters' Poll

Mr. Ypsi · January 30, 2007, 12:15:54 AM

Thanks, all. It's only a little more work, but a LOT more informative - the ranges were often pretty meaningless due to outlyers. This way you can see where your ranking stood relative to others and (whether to yourself or on the board) either justify your 'dissent' or ponder why others saw things so differently. I've been doing that all along, but now you can too!

e.g., I've been voting St. Thomas at the low end of the ballots and, while it is comforting that two others share my skepticism, I keep wondering what I'm not seeing that others are (and the real poll has them ranked even higher than the PP)? On the other hand, I've been voting Va Wes as high or higher than anyone else (perhaps in part because I've also been voting Guilford as high or higher than anyone else!). This one I'll defend rather than wonder about - to me losing to a system team is not necessarily a major fault. Those games are just more unpredictable than most - look at what Grinnell did to Lawrence and Carroll on the road on consecutive nights!

Greek Tragedy · January 30, 2007, 12:38:26 AM

Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on January 30, 2007, 12:15:54 AM
e.g., I've been voting St. Thomas at the low end of the ballots and, while it is comforting that two others share my skepticism, I keep wondering what I'm not seeing that others are (and the real poll has them ranked even higher than the PP)?

I remember gettting ripped on a little bit when I was praising La Crosse's win over St. Thomas back in the day. "They" said that the outcome would've been a lot different had their AC Isaac Rosenfelt had played. They did beat Occidental and their only other loss is to St. John's, who is 15-4, and 13-1 in the MIAC. Though I wouldn't consider the MIAC a powerhouse conference, they have won every other game. So I can't really punish them for that.

Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on January 30, 2007, 12:15:54 AM
This one I'll defend rather than wonder about - to me losing to a system team is not necessarily a major fault. Those games are just more unpredictable than most - look at what Grinnell did to Lawrence and Carroll on the road on consecutive nights!

When system ball is working, it works REALLY well...when it's not working, it looks REALLY bad. There doesn't seem to be any gray area! Predictable or not, it's entertaining; I've seen Grinnell play in the past, including twice this year (beat Ripon, lost to Oshkosh)

Ralph Turner · January 30, 2007, 01:10:16 AM

I missed on NYU and Guilford.

I thought that NYU had a great road trip to Chicago and Wash StL.

I listened to Guilford, as long as I could. They held their own. I am confident of my votes when I see my place in these distributions.

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) · January 30, 2007, 09:09:50 AM

I finally put Hope in, caving to peer pressure and the lack of qualified teams across the country.

St Thomas seems to be back on track, having a couple of great outings this week. I've been voting them very low as well, but I'm starting to move them back up. I think a lot of people were voting on potential whereas I vote based on their play at the moment. I would assume Ypsi does something similar, which would explain the outlying.

I've had Chicago and WashU high in my poll for a while so two close road losses by Brandeis and NYU didn't do much to my poll. Both schools still seem stronger than my other options at the end of the poll.

But the ultimate vindication this week is three other posters giving MHB it's due.

Although now I'm still the only one not voting for WPI. Guys they're just not that good. They're about as good as Salem State and you won't see me voting for them anytime soon.

smedindy · January 30, 2007, 09:42:38 AM

WPI is 13th on Massey using MOV - so that's pretty darn good for me.

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) · January 30, 2007, 10:18:06 AM

They're consistent and their talented, but they aren't any better than they were last year and that wasn't really a top 25 team.

formerbant10 · January 30, 2007, 11:54:19 AM

Hoops, you're probably right about WPI....but they're winning the games they play and you can't knock them for that. In a different conference they may only be .500, but 17-1 is a pretty solid record and they should get some recognition for that.

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) · January 30, 2007, 12:11:52 PM

Quote from: formerbant10 on January 30, 2007, 11:54:19 AM
Hoops, you're probably right about WPI....but they're winning the games they play and you can't knock them for that. In a different conference they may only be .500, but 17-1 is a pretty solid record and they should get some recognition for that.

Sure, but wouldn't you also agree that Trinity should be getting more support that WPI? I'm not saying the Engineers aren't good. I think they have the experience and talent to surprise some team in the playoffs, but I just don't think that overall they are a top tier squad.

formerbant10 · January 30, 2007, 01:04:25 PM

Trinity had a bad loss to Bowdoin. So I can see the logic behind their drop in support. If the two teams played, I'm pretty sure that the Bants would be victorious....but again, they've done a good job handling their schedule.

I do not understand how Bates is still in the top 25 in the real poll. OT to beat Wesleyan and lost to Conn....right now I might take WPI over the Bobcats in a game as well.

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) · January 30, 2007, 01:12:10 PM

I think Bates is getting the benefit of the doubt for a weak string. I think much like Wittenberg earlier this year, they are being judged on their potential (which, I think you'll agree is great), however, they are on the edge. You could see them disappear real fast if they slip up at all this week.

They had such an opportunity with Trinity and Amherst at the sauna this year and they blew it. For me, it almost kills me not to vote for them because I know how good they can be.

Mr. Ypsi · January 30, 2007, 01:44:27 PM

The nine-vote poll has been corrected. I slipped a line and had several teams in the 20s misidentified.

smedindy · January 30, 2007, 04:21:59 PM

If you recall, in the past I have run a power rating amalgamation for fun and giggles, taking power ratings, adding in the SOS element and another calculation that I do (which is easy) and here it is.

Using this formula, which over time gets more accurate, right now I have a surprise #1 thanks to their power ranking and SOS.

1. Wash U.
2 WI - Stevens Point
3. Wooster
4. WI - Oshkosh
5. Augustana
6. Elmhurst
7. Amherst (SOS is low)
8. St. Thomas
9. Chicago
10. Hope
11. Mississippi College (SOS)
12. Wittenberg
13. Ohio Northern
14. Whitworth
15. Virginia Wesleyan
16. Guilford
17. WPI
18. Occidental
19. Aurora
20. Carthage
21. Messiah (!)
22. NYU
23. Maryville (TN)
24. Rochester
25. Trinity (CT)

Greek Tragedy · January 30, 2007, 05:11:07 PM

Nice work! and some surprises.

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) · January 30, 2007, 05:13:45 PM

I said on the top 25 board, Messiah, in my mind makes as good a case as Scranton right now. They are certainly a team I'm keeping my eye on.

diehardfan · January 30, 2007, 05:26:24 PM

Since you guys were talking about St. Thomas, you might want to check the Top 25 board for the discussion.

I personally really like the MACC, if only for the fact that they were much less painful to watch to my Midwest eyes than the CAC during east coast version of my DIII basetball siberian exile. Between the MACC and the MACF there is some great basketball history, so you never know when someone will step up.... I would have to do some research on Messiah's particulars though since I think I haven't seen a MACC game in two years.

Smed, can you send me more details on how your power ratings work?