Posters' Poll

sac · January 26, 2009, 07:36:00 PM

#'s 9, 10, 11, 14, 15, 16, 18, 19, 20, 24 and 25 all lost on my last ballot, meaning this week I had some tough decisions and odd placements.

Just a comment: I always have a hard time knowing what to do with the Pennsylavania D3's, they typically have impressive records but have let me down when I've seen them in person and their results in the NCAA's. It was particularly infuriating to see Gettysburg beat Franklin and Marshall which offered some clarity only to see Gettysburg lose the next one to Haverford.

Mr. Ypsi · January 26, 2009, 09:13:17 PM

The poll remains officially open through tomorrow evening if any new voters wish to participate (send a PM to Mr. Ypsi, and I'll update), but having already received ballots from all 8 who have participated this year, here goes:

POSTERS' POLL (through games of 1-25):

1. St. Thomas 196 (1,1,1,1,2,2,2,2)
2. Wash U 194 (1,1,1,1,2,2,3,3)
3. UWSP 185 (2,2,3,3,3,3,3,4)
4. UWP 174 (3,4,4,4,4,4,5,6)
5. Capital 161 (4,5,5,6,6,6,6,9)
6. Trinity TX 155 (5,5,5,6,7,7,8,10)
7. UPS 144 (4,7,7,8,8,9,10,11)
8. UWW 142 (5,6,7,8,8,9,10,13)
9. Wheaton 136 (5,6,7,8,8,9,10,19)
10. Ithaca 122 (7,8,9,10,10,11,13,18)
11. R. Stockton 114 (10,11,11,13,13,14,15,17)
12. Augie 108 (9,11,12,12,12,14,15,15)
13. Buena V. 107 (9,9,11,12,14,14,15,17)
14. St. Norbert 103 (7,10,11,14,15,16,16,16)
15. Amherst 97 (11,12,12,12,15,15,16,18)
16. Elmhurst 86 (12,13,13,14,16,17,17,20)
17. CMU 60 (16,17,17,18,18,18,18,-)
18. Elms 58 (13,13,14,17,19,23,25,-)
19. UMD 49 (15,19,19,19,19,21,21,-)
20. Middlebury 47 (18,18,19,20,20,21,22,23)
21. TX-Dallas 27 (17,19,20,24,24,25,-,-)
22. SJF 23 (20,21,22,23,23,23,-,-)
23. Carroll 21 (16,21,23,23,----)
t24 Centre 17 (20,22,22,24,25,---)
t24 Roanoke 17 (21,21,22,24,25,---)

26. Randy Mac 16 (20,20,24)
t27 Carthage 12 (14)
t27 McMurry 12 (16,24)
29. Transy 6 (21,25)
30. WPI 5 (22,25)
t31 F&M 4 (24,24)
t31 JCU 4 (22)
t31 Salem St. 4 (23,25)
34. Cal Lu 2 (24)
35. DeSales 1

sac · January 26, 2009, 09:32:51 PM

Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on January 26, 2009, 09:13:17 PM
11. R. Stockton 114 (10,11,11,13,13,14,15,15,17)

Mr. Y you have 9 votes calculated for Richard Stockton.

Ralph Turner · January 26, 2009, 09:39:46 PM

Quote from: sac on January 26, 2009, 09:32:51 PM
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on January 26, 2009, 09:13:17 PM
11. R. Stockton 114 (10,11,11,13,13,14,15,15,17)

Mr. Y you have 9 votes calculated for Richard Stockton.

Yeah?

Hey, it's Noo Joysee!

What of it?

Mr. Ypsi · January 26, 2009, 11:27:42 PM

Poll has been corrected (before I crashed), and this explanatory post was made over an hour ago but we had connection problems at this end!

Thanks to sharp-eyed posters (here and by PM) corrections have been made for R. Stockton, BV, and SJF. I'm pretty sure the totals are correct, but sometimes I confuse the overall position total with the individual voter positions (with RS I listed them all; with BV and SJF I subbed the overall total for one of the ballots).

[Ralph, RS may be NJ, but I don't allow double-voting; after all, one of our other voters is from the home of Rod Blagojevic and Richard Daley, but he doesn't get extra votes either!

]

cardinalpride · January 27, 2009, 03:30:04 AM

Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on January 26, 2009, 09:13:17 PM
The poll remains officially open through tomorrow evening if any new voters wish to participate (send a PM to Mr. Ypsi, and I'll update), but having already received ballots from all 8 who have participated this year, here goes:

POSTERS' POLL (through games of 1-25):

1. St. Thomas 196 (1,1,1,1,2,2,2,2)
2. Wash U 194 (1,1,1,1,2,2,3,3)
3. UWSP 185 (2,2,3,3,3,3,3,4)
4. UWP 174 (3,4,4,4,4,4,5,6)
5. Capital 161 (4,5,5,6,6,6,6,9)
6. Trinity TX 155 (5,5,5,6,7,7,8,10)
7. UPS 144 (4,7,7,8,8,9,10,11)
8. UWW 142 (5,6,7,8,8,9,10,13)
9. Wheaton 136 (5,6,7,8,8,9,10,19)
10. Ithaca 122 (7,8,9,10,10,11,13,18)
11. R. Stockton 114 (10,11,11,13,13,14,15,17)
12. Augie 108 (9,11,12,12,12,14,15,15)
13. Buena V. 107 (9,9,11,12,14,14,15,17)
14. St. Norbert 103 (7,10,11,14,15,16,16,16)
15. Amherst 97 (11,12,12,12,15,15,16,18)
16. Elmhurst 86 (12,13,13,14,16,17,17,20)
17. CMU 60 (16,17,17,18,18,18,18,-)
18. Elms 58 (13,13,14,17,19,23,25,-)
19. UMD 49 (15,19,19,19,19,21,21,-)
20. Middlebury 47 (18,18,19,20,20,21,22,23)
21. TX-Dallas 27 (17,19,20,24,24,25,-,-)
22. SJF 23 (20,21,22,23,23,23,-,-)
23. Carroll 21 (16,21,23,23,----)
t24 Centre 17 (20,22,22,24,25,---)
t24 Roanoke 17 (21,21,22,24,25,---)

26. Randy Mac 16 (20,20,24)
t27 Carthage 12 (14)
t27 McMurry 12 (16,24)
29. Transy 6 (21,25)
30. WPI 5 (22,25)
t31 F&M 4 (24,24)
t31 JCU 4 (22)
t31 Salem St. 4 (23,25)
34. Cal Lu 2 (24)
35. DeSales 1

NCC beats both McMurry and Carthage, held double digit leads late in both contest, has the exact same record as carthage at 12-5, plays in a tougher league than McMurry(I'm sure most of you would agree with that), and yet not one of you voters would give them a single vote!

Amazing!

Mr. Ypsi,
How do you expect to gain additional participation from posters, and/or for anyone to take this poll seriously when you have 3 posters voting Carthage and McMurry as two of the top 16 teams in the country? While I believe they're both fine teams, their body of work isn't quite top 16 material. Now I know they received a final ranking of 27th, but the ballots that had them ranked 12, 14, and 16 should have been questioned first and deleted second. Not posted for the entire d3hoops nation to see! I know you're better than that!

magicman · January 27, 2009, 04:43:34 AM

Quote from: cardinalpride on January 27, 2009, 03:30:04 AM
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on January 26, 2009, 09:13:17 PM
The poll remains officially open through tomorrow evening if any new voters wish to participate (send a PM to Mr. Ypsi, and I'll update), but having already received ballots from all 8 who have participated this year, here goes:

POSTERS' POLL (through games of 1-25):

1. St. Thomas 196 (1,1,1,1,2,2,2,2)
2. Wash U 194 (1,1,1,1,2,2,3,3)
3. UWSP 185 (2,2,3,3,3,3,3,4)
4. UWP 174 (3,4,4,4,4,4,5,6)
5. Capital 161 (4,5,5,6,6,6,6,9)
6. Trinity TX 155 (5,5,5,6,7,7,8,10)
7. UPS 144 (4,7,7,8,8,9,10,11)
8. UWW 142 (5,6,7,8,8,9,10,13)
9. Wheaton 136 (5,6,7,8,8,9,10,19)
10. Ithaca 122 (7,8,9,10,10,11,13,18)
11. R. Stockton 114 (10,11,11,13,13,14,15,17)
12. Augie 108 (9,11,12,12,12,14,15,15)
13. Buena V. 107 (9,9,11,12,14,14,15,17)
14. St. Norbert 103 (7,10,11,14,15,16,16,16)
15. Amherst 97 (11,12,12,12,15,15,16,18)
16. Elmhurst 86 (12,13,13,14,16,17,17,20)
17. CMU 60 (16,17,17,18,18,18,18,-)
18. Elms 58 (13,13,14,17,19,23,25,-)
19. UMD 49 (15,19,19,19,19,21,21,-)
20. Middlebury 47 (18,18,19,20,20,21,22,23)
21. TX-Dallas 27 (17,19,20,24,24,25,-,-)
22. SJF 23 (20,21,22,23,23,23,-,-)
23. Carroll 21 (16,21,23,23,----)
t24 Centre 17 (20,22,22,24,25,---)
t24 Roanoke 17 (21,21,22,24,25,---)

26. Randy Mac 16 (20,20,24)
t27 Carthage 12 (14)
t27 McMurry 12 (16,24)
29. Transy 6 (21,25)
30. WPI 5 (22,25)
t31 F&M 4 (24,24)
t31 JCU 4 (22)
t31 Salem St. 4 (23,25)
34. Cal Lu 2 (24)
35. DeSales 1
NCC beats both McMurry and Carthage, held double digit leads late in both contest, has the exact same record as carthage at 12-5, plays in a tougher league than McMurry(I'm sure most of you would agree with that), and yet not one of you voters would give them a single vote! Amazing!
Mr. Ypsi,
How do you expect to gain additional participation from posters, and/or for anyone to take this poll seriously when you have 3 posters voting Carthage and McMurry as two of the top 16 teams in the country? While I believe they're both fine teams, they're not quite top 16 material. Now I know they received a final ranking of 27th, but the ballots that had them ranked 12, 14, and 16 should have been questioned first and deleted second. Not posted for the entire d3hoops nation to see! I know you're better than that!

cardinalpride,

You're not reading the poll correctly. Carthage received 1 vote at #14 and McMurry received 2 votes 1 at #16 and 1 at #24. The 12 you're looking at is their point total not a vote. While I didn't vote for Carthage I did give McMurry that vote at #24. There are probably 15 or more teams that you could put in the 24th or 25th spot and make an argument for doing so. I chose McMurry because their D3 record is 12-2 as 2 of their 4 losses were to D1 teams and they own a win against ranked Texas-Dallas. Is North Central one of these teams that could merit a vote? Sure. But there are only 8 people making the effort in the posters poll. If we had 25 posters turning in a poll then maybe you would see some votes for them. In the D3 Hoops poll, North Central over the past 4 weeks has gotten 0 pts, 5 pts, 0 pts, and this week 5 pts. That means that 1 voter could have ranked them at #21 or 5 voters could have them at #25 or some combination thereof. Still not much support and they have 3 times as many voters as our posters poll. Rather than criticize Mr Y, when you obviously don't know how to read the results, why not take a few minutes and submit your own poll.

sac · January 27, 2009, 10:15:56 AM

Quote from: cardinalpride on January 27, 2009, 03:30:04 AM

NCC beats both McMurry and Carthage, held double digit leads late in both contest, has the exact same record as carthage at 12-5, plays in a tougher league than McMurry(I'm sure most of you would agree with that), and yet not one of you voters would give them a single vote! Amazing!
Mr. Ypsi,
How do you expect to gain additional participation from posters, and/or for anyone to take this poll seriously when you have 3 posters voting Carthage and McMurry as two of the top 16 teams in the country? While I believe they're both fine teams, their body of work isn't quite top 16 material. Now I know they received a final ranking of 27th, but the ballots that had them ranked 12, 14, and 16 should have been questioned first and deleted second. Not posted for the entire d3hoops nation to see! I know you're better than that!

Carthage and North Central both lost last week. Carthage had one voter this week and I suspect its the same voter who had them #8 last week, which isn't even on the same planet as the rest of us. North Central has 5 losses, one being to 6-11 Baldwin-Wallace less than a month ago. Neither Carthage or North Central were in my top 30, and neither was McMurry.

Quote from: magicman on January 27, 2009, 04:43:34 AM
Rather than criticize Mr Y, when you obviously don't know how to read the results, why not take a few minutes and submit your own poll.

Great idea!

Ralph Turner · January 27, 2009, 10:39:33 AM

McMurry is not on my ballot, yet. There are too many unpredictables going on with them.

They have an outstanding point guard in Robert Moreno who is coming off a groin injury that caused him to miss 118 minutes and 53 seconds of three games in the last two weeks. (He came off the bench with 1:18 left to hit 3 of 4 FT's and get a steal that led to a basket in a tight game with Sul Ross State. Bingo! Five point turn-around in 67 seconds. Moreno substituted for another McM guard, Scott Hurley, who was undercut on a fast break layup and suffered a concussion. Hurley will miss the tough UMHB/Concordia-TX road games.)

McMurry needs to strengthen their post play and to remain focused for an entire 40 minutes. They are on an 8-game winning streak, but must play UMHB Thursday in Belton, where ~~UWSP~~ UWW lost over Christmas, and then Saturday go to Concordia-TX in Austin, where NEWMAC league-leading WPI lost on New Year's Eve.

Those McMurry votes are not "homer" votes.

EDIT: UW-Whitewater came to Belton and beat LeTourneau 69-58 on Dec 29th (neutral floor) and then lost at UMHB 67-73 on Dec 30th.

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) · January 27, 2009, 11:29:42 AM

I had North Central pretty close to votes on my list (somewhere between 26 and 32). Admittedly Carthage was too high the first week; I made a mistake. The CCIW is going to shake out quite nicely over the next couple of weeks. North Central's schedule is a little back loaded, so I'll be putting more emphasis on the end of their season than the beginning.

Remember it doesn't matter how you finish until the end of the year.

The problem for me is that after the top 9 or 10 squads, no one has a strong case, so it's a lot of difficult comparisons between scenarios and opponents. I, for one, will be very thankful when a few more conference games are under everyone's belts.

usee · January 27, 2009, 12:43:08 PM

I am a CCIW guy and I only had Wheaton, Augie and Elmhurst on my ballot and several posters had each of those teams higher than I did on my ballot. I have yet to vote for McMurray, North Central or Carthage but I am watching McMurray as they are an intriguing team (the other 2 are not on my top 30 either). The bottom 6-8 picks are a crapshoot and I bet there are a couple dozen teams that are virtually interchangeable down there. Teams like Middlebury (who has a good win @Richard Stockton but is about to face the best of the NECSAC) and SJF (who still has to face Ithaca 2x) will sort themselves our shortly.

Gregory Sager · January 27, 2009, 01:53:28 PM

Quote from: USee on January 27, 2009, 12:43:08 PM
I am a CCIW guy and I only had Wheaton, Augie and Elmhurst on my ballot and several posters had each of those teams higher than I did on my ballot. I have yet to vote for McMurray, North Central or Carthage but I am watching McMurray as they are an intriguing team (the other 2 are not on my top 30 either). The bottom 6-8 picks are a crapshoot and I bet there are a couple dozen teams that are virtually interchangeable down there. Teams like Middlebury (who has a good win @Richard Stockton but is about to face the best of the NECSAC) and SJF (who still has to face Ithaca 2x) will sort themselves our shortly.

I could've posted USee's comments word-for-word. I, too, am a CCIW guy who only had Wheaton, Augie, and Elmhurst on his ballot, and at comparatively modest positions relative to where most of the other participants put them, and I also didn't vote for McMurry but have the Ex-Indians on my "teams to watch" list.

Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on January 26, 2009, 11:27:42 PM
[Ralph, RS may be NJ, but I don't allow double-voting; after all, one of our other voters is from the home of Rod Blagojevic and Richard Daley, but he doesn't get extra votes either! ]

On the other hand, if Chuck is ever in a position to appoint a U.S. Senator, I've got dibs.

cardinalpride · January 28, 2009, 12:36:38 AM

Quote from: magicman on January 27, 2009, 04:43:34 AM
Quote from: cardinalpride on January 27, 2009, 03:30:04 AM
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on January 26, 2009, 09:13:17 PM
The poll remains officially open through tomorrow evening if any new voters wish to participate (send a PM to Mr. Ypsi, and I'll update), but having already received ballots from all 8 who have participated this year, here goes:

POSTERS' POLL (through games of 1-25):

1. St. Thomas 196 (1,1,1,1,2,2,2,2)
2. Wash U 194 (1,1,1,1,2,2,3,3)
3. UWSP 185 (2,2,3,3,3,3,3,4)
4. UWP 174 (3,4,4,4,4,4,5,6)
5. Capital 161 (4,5,5,6,6,6,6,9)
6. Trinity TX 155 (5,5,5,6,7,7,8,10)
7. UPS 144 (4,7,7,8,8,9,10,11)
8. UWW 142 (5,6,7,8,8,9,10,13)
9. Wheaton 136 (5,6,7,8,8,9,10,19)
10. Ithaca 122 (7,8,9,10,10,11,13,18)
11. R. Stockton 114 (10,11,11,13,13,14,15,17)
12. Augie 108 (9,11,12,12,12,14,15,15)
13. Buena V. 107 (9,9,11,12,14,14,15,17)
14. St. Norbert 103 (7,10,11,14,15,16,16,16)
15. Amherst 97 (11,12,12,12,15,15,16,18)
16. Elmhurst 86 (12,13,13,14,16,17,17,20)
17. CMU 60 (16,17,17,18,18,18,18,-)
18. Elms 58 (13,13,14,17,19,23,25,-)
19. UMD 49 (15,19,19,19,19,21,21,-)
20. Middlebury 47 (18,18,19,20,20,21,22,23)
21. TX-Dallas 27 (17,19,20,24,24,25,-,-)
22. SJF 23 (20,21,22,23,23,23,-,-)
23. Carroll 21 (16,21,23,23,----)
t24 Centre 17 (20,22,22,24,25,---)
t24 Roanoke 17 (21,21,22,24,25,---)

26. Randy Mac 16 (20,20,24)
t27 Carthage 12 (14)
t27 McMurry 12 (16,24)
29. Transy 6 (21,25)
30. WPI 5 (22,25)
t31 F&M 4 (24,24)
t31 JCU 4 (22)
t31 Salem St. 4 (23,25)
34. Cal Lu 2 (24)
35. DeSales 1
NCC beats both McMurry and Carthage, held double digit leads late in both contest, has the exact same record as carthage at 12-5, plays in a tougher league than McMurry(I'm sure most of you would agree with that), and yet not one of you voters would give them a single vote! Amazing!
Mr. Ypsi,
How do you expect to gain additional participation from posters, and/or for anyone to take this poll seriously when you have 3 posters voting Carthage and McMurry as two of the top 16 teams in the country? While I believe they're both fine teams, they're not quite top 16 material. Now I know they received a final ranking of 27th, but the ballots that had them ranked 12, 14, and 16 should have been questioned first and deleted second. Not posted for the entire d3hoops nation to see! I know you're better than that!

cardinalpride,

You're not reading the poll correctly. Carthage received 1 vote at #14 and McMurry received 2 votes 1 at #16 and 1 at #24. The 12 you're looking at is their point total not a vote. While I didn't vote for Carthage I did give McMurry that vote at #24. There are probably 15 or more teams that you could put in the 24th or 25th spot and make an argument for doing so. I chose McMurry because their D3 record is 12-2 as 2 of their 4 losses were to D1 teams and they own a win against ranked Texas-Dallas. Is North Central one of these teams that could merit a vote? Sure. But there are only 8 people making the effort in the posters poll. If we had 25 posters turning in a poll then maybe you would see some votes for them. In the D3 Hoops poll, North Central over the past 4 weeks has gotten 0 pts, 5 pts, 0 pts, and this week 5 pts. That means that 1 voter could have ranked them at #21 or 5 voters could have them at #25 or some combination thereof. Still not much support and they have 3 times as many voters as our posters poll. Rather than criticize Mr Y, when you obviously don't know how to read the results, why not take a few minutes and submit your own poll.

Magicman,
You're right! I did misread the poll! At any rate, I was speaking to Mr. Y and/or the pollsters that voted carthage and Mcmurry so high! Since you were not the pollster that did so, I was not talking to you! However, since you have decided to be Mr. Y keeper, let me say this to you "I do not wish to take part in a poll when at least 25% of the voters are over the top and/or biased in their voting! I wouldn't mind be a voter in the poll if the yahoos that post ridiculous rankings were held accountable for it! A portion of the poll lacks credibility! I will not take it seriously unless all the voters that participate take it seriously! Plain and simple!

Mr. Ypsi · January 28, 2009, 01:06:56 AM

cardinalpride,

The 'high' votes for Carthage and McMurry are both from the same voter, who is 'eccentric' perhaps, but I otherwise value his input tremendously. (And his admittedly overly high vote for Carthage last week DID immediately precede their take-down of previously undefeated Wheaton!) So if you want to use 'nuts' as your excuse for not voting, he's only 12.5% not 25%!

(Sorry HF - cheap joke, had to do it.

)

I make no pretense of a 'legitimate' poll in the same sense that d3hoops.com is. We are all self-selected, not representative by conference or region (though I've tried!

); we just enjoy getting our two-cents out, then debating WHY we picked the way we did.

But while (as a retired statistics prof) I know all the limitations, I still think this poll is pretty cool (and not necessarily all that inaccurate)! You're welcome to join us rather than take potshots.

Greg, I doubt I'll have the opportunity to appoint you Senator. Would ambassador to the SCIAC suffice?

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) · January 28, 2009, 09:03:11 AM

Just for some context, two seasons ago my system led me to rank Mary-Hardin Baylor at the beginning of January, which led to similar (probably worse) vitriol sent in my direction. MHB ended up ranked #17 in the d3hoops poll.

I'm not saying that either Carthage or McMurry will wind up ranked at the end of the season, but I do have a track record. I am more than willing to admit that both of these teams could easily lose three in a row and fall right off the list, but at this point, in my estimation, they belong. What they've done this far is deserving of a spot. These rankings are in no way predictions of how we think the teams will finish, only what they've done so far.

Posters' Poll

usee