Posters' Poll

[Mr. Ypsi]

Quite appropriately, the 'WIAC triplets' finished bunched together.  Looking only at those three, UWSP was top 3 times, bottom 3 times; UWP was top twice, middle 4 times; UWW was top twice, middle twice, bottom 3 times.  We never could figure out which was best (but knew they were all close)!

[Ralph Turner]

Good job Mr Y.

I thought you missed a 2nd place vote as I scoured the top 10 and couldn't find it.   

It's my Larry vote at #2.

I tore up my ballot after the tourney and re-assessed everyone at that point, especially when so many teams could not hold home court advantage in the early rounds.  When I looked at my March 1st ballot, I had trouble justifying that ballot in light of the tourney outcomes.  I saw teams whose weaknesses were dramatically revealed.  In my mind, the top 40 teams were interchangeable beyond the midwestern stronghold. I tried to honor the opinions of the midwesterners who had discussed the bracket of death and re-ranked them.  I think that those top 8 are definitely in a separate tier.  How RSNJ would have done in the Bracket of Death is another debate.   

I looked at the regions that I may have overlooked and then re-ranked them.  The Mid-Atlantic region came out stronger on my ballot.  I re-did the northeast, where I may have over-valued those teams, and gotten into a rut. 

I heard and read several accounts that the Larrys gave WashU their toughest game, the Bears winning by 2 on a neutral floor.  Okay, that is fine with me.

Wash U beat UWW on a neutral floor by 3. Give them #3.

I put Wheaton 4th.  Wash U beat Wheaton on their own floor.  How valuable is home court advantage in the playoffs, especially in the Sectionals?  3-5 points? Who knows?  The ASC-Men may never host a sectional under current guidelines and budgetary restraints!  Wheaton #4.

UW-P lost to Wheaton at Wheaton in OT 74-69.  It took Home Court Advantage by Wheaton to beat UWP.  Nevertheless, UWP #5.

I put UW-SP at #6,  even tho' the Pointers lost to the Tommies at St Thomas.  I thought that the Tommies vulnerability was finally uncovered and solved by a veteran Wash U team after WashU had had the chance to dissect what had not worked in previous playoff games, like the UWSP-STU game.

RSNJ #7.  I thought that they had a style of play that would beat several of the midwestern teams.  Also Isham Poe was lost to RSNJ for the last half of the playoffs.  I think that hurt the chemistry and the flow of their game.

Tommies #8.  Were beaten by a quality team when their style was solved.  The WashU STU game reminded me of the McMurry Calvin Elite 8 game at Calvin in 2000.  McMurry All-American Daniel Martinez still holds the record for steals against the Knights, but when "the one who brung ya" cannot take you any farther in the tourney, then you are stuck with "the one who brung ya".  Tommies inflicted (what was it?) 17 turnovers on the Bears, but the Bears solved it and ran away with the victory.  I would assume that in a conference situation, the WashU-STU video tape would have been studied very carefully by subsequent opponents.


Guilford #9.  The best of the rest in a tight bunch of the next 8.  Beat Transy on a neutral floor in OT.  Beat Averett by 10.  "Won the Great Lakes" and edged UT-Dallas in OT.  The Guilford basket that put Guilford and UTD into OT was the type that shows up on the "D3hoops.com Sports Center" nightly video stream 10 years from now.    Was definitely better than F&M.

Elmhurst #10.  Lost to UWW on their home court in the first round.  You must protect home court if you get it in the playoffs.

UT-Dallas #11.  I don't think that the country knows how good and how strong the ASC is.  Out-of-sight/ out-of-mind.  "Stomped" Trinity TX by 16 in San Antonio after a defensive adjustment swung a 7-point deficit in the mid first half.  Beat Capital on a hostile neutral floor 1189 miles away.  UTD typifies the athleticism that we see in the ASC.  Some ASC teams are more athletic than UTD, which is where UTD got its defeats in conference. ASC member UMHB beat UWW in Belton.  Concordia Austin (10-16/9-12) beat WPI 86-85 in Austin.  That strength is not reflected in many national impressions of the ASC.

JCU #12.
UPS #13.  Ran into the bracket of death
Capital #14.
Transy #15.
Thomas More #16 Lost at Capital in OT in the first round.  Paying homage to the 3rd best team out of the Great Lakes Region.

F&M #17 -- my second pick from the right side of the bracket.

Augie #18 -- another team from the "bracket of death".  An outlier comparing the rest of the ballots, but I think that the #3 in the CCIW was that good.

SLU #19 -- maybe I have over-ranked them, but we did not seen SLU play a meaningful game out of the East/Mid-Atlantic/Atlantic/Northeast regions, but they made it to the Sweet 16.  I am giving them the #2 slot out of that upper right bracket.

Gwynedd-Mercy #20 --  Another outlier.  I let them ride the RSNJ coattails.  GMC beat Amherst in the first round and then lost at RSNJ by 7 in the second round.

Miss College #21 -- Most athletic team that Miss College had put on the floor.  I thought that they could compete with anyone beyond the top 16-18.  Lost the season series with UTD, 2 games to one.

Salem State #22 -- Lost at F&M in the Sweet 16 by 6.  Won on the road at Widener in the first round.  Loonnnngggggg bus trips for Salem State.

Middlebury #23 -- Dropped them after their loss to Bridgewater State.

DeSales #24 -- Lost to F&M in the Elite 8.  Beat Ithaca at Ithaca and knocked Ithaca out of my ballot.

Trinity TX #25 -- Dropped them after their performance hosting  UTD in the second round.  Trinity does not match well versus athletic teams in the southwest.  They rarely play a "meaningful" game versus good, athletic "in-region" foes in this part of the country.  UTD showed Trinity's vulnerability.

Thanks again to Mr Ypsi for running this poll.  I think that it really provides a good service to the fans and airs many of the thoughts that we have about the official Top 25.

[sac]

Thanks for the rundown Ralph. 

I'll out myself, I didn't vote for Lawrence.   I guess I value the whole season a little more vs just the last 3 weeks, which in many cases was just one game.  Lawrence was 19-7, the only team that didn't win 20 games that I considered.  I also didn't have them ranked in my final regular season poll, a loss in round 1 isn't going to move anyone up for me, no matter the opponent.

Thomas More #16 Lost at Capital in OT in the first round.  Paying homage to the 3rd best team out of the Great Lakes Region.

Big disagreement here, for one Thomas More was never ranked in the NCAA's Great Lakes ranking which ranks 6 teams.  Its doubtfull they were in the invisible ranking either.  The Presidents is considered at best the 4th best league in a 4 league Region.  In fact I can't recall a single win by a team in that league vs the OAC, NCAC or MIAA in the the tournament, their game with Capital may have been the closest result in memory.

Among Thomas More's 7 losses is a 17 point loss to Transylvania, a 23 point loss to Centre at home, a 3 point loss to Baldwin Wallace and 15 point loss to Otterbein both at the Otterbein Classic.  BW finished  9th, Otterbein 10th in the OAC.

The only good win I can find is beating Wilmington who ended up 16-10 and 4th in the OAC.  How Thomas More took Capital to OT I'll never know.
I think 3rd best in the GL Region is a giant stretch here.

[sac]

The Presidents is considered at best the 4th best league in a 4 league Region.  In fact I can't recall a single win by a team in that league vs the OAC, NCAC or MIAA in the the tournament, their game with Capital may have been the closest result in memory.

Check that, I can't even recall a President's Conference team being in the regional rankings in recent years.

[Ralph Turner]

Good stuff here, sac!   

This is what we need to "air out".

I just finished the Hoopsville podcast and was gratified that Dave McHugh had similar problems with his ballot as well. (One other point on the podcast...thanks to Titan Q for the shoutout!)

I have used the "peloton" analogy this year to describe the season.  I still maintain that there is very little difference between the "second tier" (this year starting about #9) down to #40.  This is where the consensus on the Posters Poll and the Top 25 begin to fall apart.  I think that the increasing number of schools that are video-streaming will allow us to measure better the quality of teams across the country.  The consequence of this will be to burst the reputations of some traditional names.

I will appreciate other fans throwing in their $.02.   

[Ralph Turner]

The Presidents is considered at best the 4th best league in a 4 league Region.  In fact I can't recall a single win by a team in that league vs the OAC, NCAC or MIAA in the the tournament, their game with Capital may have been the closest result in memory.

Check that, I can't even recall a President's Conference team being in the regional rankings in recent years.

Watch out for St Vincent (22-3).  McMurry edged them in Las Vegas this year.  They will shake things up in that region, because I think that their style of play confounds most teams in that region. 

[sac]

Of interest to Ralph would be UT-Dallas.

I've seen 2 ASC teams, both Miss Coll, in 2005 and 2007, and have been party to many conversations of Calvin's throttling of McMurray at the infamous 2000 sectional in Grand Rapids.  In both cases I saw Miss. Coll. they were underwhelming in the Great Lakes hosted sectionals at Albion and Wittenberg.  In both cases I thought they were clearly the 4th best teams at those locations.

This year I never felt the Great Lakes was as strong as those years certainly no stand out teams like 2000 (Calvin) 2005 (Albion and Calvin) or 2007 (Witt and Hope), and in fact I wrote Ralph just a couple days before the tournament I thought UT-Dallas could beat Capital which underwhelmed me last year defensively (basicaly the same team returned this year).  But might have some trouble with John Carroll.  Which is kind of interesting that it was the team that beat JCU, Guilford, that eliminated UT-D.

This is probably the first time that an ASC team has made the Q-finals when paired with Great Lakes teams, maybe I'm forgetting someone but I can't think of one.  The GL is usually but not always the 3rd best Region of the 8 in my opinion.  Getting to the elite 8 in that pairing environment, and the season warrants a top 10 to me.

I gave UT-D the #9 spot, just ahead of John Carroll.

[sac]

The Presidents is considered at best the 4th best league in a 4 league Region.  In fact I can't recall a single win by a team in that league vs the OAC, NCAC or MIAA in the the tournament, their game with Capital may have been the closest result in memory.

Check that, I can't even recall a President's Conference team being in the regional rankings in recent years.

Watch out for St Vincent (22-3).  McMurry edged them in Las Vegas this year.  They will shake things up in that region, because I think that their style of play confounds most teams in that region. 

I've had my eye on St. Vincent the last two seasons, they seem to be a strong program.  They would have won the Presidents this year if they were eligible with a 13-1 record I believe.  They beat everyone by double-digits twice except Washington and Jefferson, who seemed to have their number.  Beating them once, and losing by only 2 the second time.  I will point out St. V's played a pretty weak non-conference schedule.........outside of McMurry of course.

They have a little video on their website
http://www.stvincent.edu/basketball

However they graduate 4 starters who all averaged double figures.  I don't know the exact D3 provisional process but these might be the final leftovers from their NAIA scholarship days.

[Ralph Turner]

My take on the ASC and the Great Lakes is that the ASC has three styles of play among the 15 members.

Up-tempo guard-prominent offense -- lots of quickness.  Strengths -- aggressive trapping and outside shooting.  Can wear a slower team down.  Post players usually have trouble with the number of trips up the floor.  Weakness -- midwestern-style, half-court walk-the-ball up the court style,  dominant post play.

ASC teams playing this style -- UOzarks, LaCollege, LeTU, ETBU, UT-Tyler, Schreiner, Concordia, Sul Ross and HSU.  (I don't mean this in a pejorative way, but the players who went to Univ of New England did not go to an ASC school, but the style of play was similar and it had caused a disruption in the usual order of New England/CCC hoops.)  Mississippi College has gradually moved to this style away from the slow-it-down strong 3/4 court pressure, keep the game score in the 60's style in early decade that always lost to a Great Lakes Midwest teams.

Half-court post-style offense.  Strengths -- has big men, a rare commodity in this part of the country.  Matches well against traditional powers which is how UMHB has wins over VWC and UWW in the last few years and UTD against Trinity and Capital.  Weakness -- quick guards, altho' UMHB has been able to get some excellent guards.  UMHB is the best example of this style of play.  UTD plays this to some degree, altho' they had a great trio of guards this year in Wright, Greene and Lowery.  TLU is another school that may be best described by this style of play.

Hybrid -- faster tempo strong post style.  McMurry and HPU.  Post men are hard to get and good posts are extremely hard to find.  McM had a good one in 2008, but the 2009 posts did not quite reach that level from 2007 & 2008.

Sul Ross had some good big men in the 2004 season that beat Trinity Tx and lost to Larry in OT out at Puget Sound in the sectional semis. (Larry lost to UWSP in OT the next night.)  SRSU played that same uptempo style with some good posts to rotate.

There is lots of athleticism in this conference.  I hope that video-streaming will reveal that next season.  I think that the conference does not get its Massey credit because of scheduling demands, but that the top 6-8 teams of the 15 are between #20-#100 of the 400 in D3.  The bottom 7-9 teams really hurt the OWP/OOWP and Massey numbers.  Taking the top 4 from each division into the tourney just makes the ASC conference final a virtual first round NCAA playoff game. 

There have been recent coaching changes at HPU (in 2008-09) and TLU (2007-08) so I may not have a good handle on where those coaches are going, given current rosters and recruits.

[Ralph Turner]

 

Cal Baptist (Golden State AC NAIA -1) beat St Vincent 89-85 in 2OT in Las Vegas.

http://naia.cstv.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/020609aai.html

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Thomas More is the only one I'd have to strongly disagree with.  They just didn't put together a decent body of work this year.  Lawrence at #2 is too high for my liking, but not entirely indefensible given the end of the season.

[Ralph Turner]

Thomas More is the only one I'd have to strongly disagree with.  They just didn't put together a decent body of work this year.  Lawrence at #2 is too high for my liking, but not entirely indefensible given the end of the season.

Thanks.

[Gregory Sager]

Good comments about your picks, guys. It's always instructive to read the reasoning behind people's picks.

Thanks again, Chuck, for running the PP this season.

[usee]

Good comments about your picks, guys. It's always instructive to read the reasoning behind people's picks.

Thanks again, Chuck, for running the PP this season.

agreed Greg. Reading this thread (and participating in the voting) made me realize how much more I have to learn and how hard it is to evaluate these teams/players. I was generally middle of the road on my picks, if anything I was too hard on my own region for fear of a bias.

Thanks Chuck for your work.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Good comments about your picks, guys. It's always instructive to read the reasoning behind people's picks.

Thanks again, Chuck, for running the PP this season.

agreed Greg. Reading this thread (and participating in the voting) made me realize how much more I have to learn and how hard it is to evaluate these teams/players. I was generally middle of the road on my picks, if anything I was too hard on my own region for fear of a bias.

Thanks Chuck for your work.

That's been a surprise to me over the years - I think several of us are 'anti-homers'!  I've kidded Ralph about his tendency to have Texas teams lower than anyone else (see Trinity on this final poll!), though all 10 of Thomas More's points are courtesy of Ralph (not Texas, but South Region).  I've noticed that I frequently have CCIW teams at or near the bottom of the voting range.

So while I'm still hoping for more geographic diversity, the problem is not regional bias.  But the one area I DO see a regional bias is actually a plus: down at the bottom of the ballots there is a strong tendency for voters to list (sometimes uniquely) teams from their home regions who might not be on the national radar.  And since when a team plays itself out of the top 25, they have to be replaced by somebody, these provide a good 'watch list' for other voters.