Posters' Poll

[sac]

I don't think it's all the way fair to throw out two potentially excellent teams solely because of their schedules. Massey has Cabrini #17 despite their schedule and BSU #36 so it's not like they are pikers. I try not to discount them totally because winning is tough in conference.

It's hard to win that many games in conference despite the competition. Conference play has so many intangible factors (rivalry, scouting, matchups) that come into play besides the raw data.

I don't think most Mid-Atlantic teams could make it out of a first or second round in the Great Lakes or Mid-West in the tournament.  It will always be hard for me to believe those teams are really as good as their records say until I see a much better team on the floor.   Consistently the Mid-Atlantic team that makes Salem gets smacked around by a team West of the Ohio River, with few exceptions.


Also schedule isn't the sole reason, but its enough to keep them from making my top 25.  It doesn't help Cabrini that its sole loss is to Centre, KY, probably the 2nd best team in the SCAC.  Centre, KY is probably the best team Birmingham Southern has played this year.  I think Centre is 15-7 on the season.  So there is a connection.

[smedindy]

"Making Salem" is not the same as "Top 25".

[sac]

"Making Salem" is not the same as "Top 25".

Also true, but the path to get there is much different and frankly far easier than it is for the GL, MW and West.  I've seen half a dozen supposed top 25 Mid-Atlantic teams over the years and none have impressed me.

[smedindy]

But this isn't "other years", it's this year, these teams, this set of data.

[sac]

But this isn't "other years", it's this year, these teams, this set of data.

My raw data has Cabrini around #20, their strength of schedule pushes them out.  Its as simple as that for me.

[smedindy]

Shouldn't the data incorporate SOS already? Or is your power rating blind to SOS when doing the computations?

[sac]

Shouldn't the data incorporate SOS already? Or is your power rating blind to SOS when doing the computations?

It is blind but I do look at the numbers w/o SOS.

I like using Efficiency, its ok but its pretty useless unless you account for differences in schedule strength.  Massey is just the easiest to follow.  I've fiddled with it, and feel like I've arrived at something that gives me realistic rankings.  EFF is very good at grouping the good teams together but not necessarily at differentiating between them.   

Then I'll go through and move teams around if something looks out of whack to me, like for instance Augustana who still rates very high but is obviously not the same team they were 6 weeks ago.

One problem I do have to deal with is the numbers are also blind to on court results, such as Wooster rates higher than Wittenberg, all season in fact.  So I've had to adjust for Witt's two wins which cannot be discounted.

Its a hobby.

[smedindy]

I just wanted to be sure you didn't double penalize (or praise) teams for playing their schedule.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I'm in.

[smedindy]

I am in but the bottom 1/3 was brutal to pick. No one wants a firm hold on those spots and there could be 40+ teams that have an argument.

Thank goodness for a tournament!

[Ralph Turner]

I will submit mine late tonight.

[Mr. Ypsi]

My message box was distressingly empty this morning.  We're stuck on SIX ballots, with only a few hours to go.  I'll expect an overflowing message inbox upon my return from bowling!

NOTE: our final regular-season poll is next week.  Then, just like the real poll, we'll be off until a final poll after Salem.

[Ralph Turner]

I will submit mine late tonight.

I sent mine last night.  It was relatively easy for me to get 25 names for which I could vote.

I am really looking forward to this season's tourney.  There is lots of balance and parity below the top 10, and I think that some of the top 10 have not had their serious challenges yet.

It has been a long time (?Mississippi College in 2007) since we have had a team to do as well as UMHB this season.  They have been tested by teams that match well with them. They have taken everyone's best shot and come right back at them.  (In an ASC of 16-teams, the conference has shown a propensity to diverisify in styles of play.  You can almost find a specific style of play by at least one team in the conference. Our weakness is that we don't have any big white Midwestern 6'9" centers as you see in the CCIW and WIAC in the conference.  Coach DeWeese mentioned Ryan Burkhardt from UMHB in Hoopsville the other night.)

[sac]

My message box was distressingly empty this morning.  We're stuck on SIX ballots, with only a few hours to go.  I'll expect an overflowing message inbox upon my return from bowling!

NOTE: our final regular-season poll is next week.  Then, just like the real poll, we'll be off until a final poll after Salem.

You can't rush excellence Mr. Y.

[Mr. Ypsi]

My message box was distressingly empty this morning.  We're stuck on SIX ballots, with only a few hours to go.  I'll expect an overflowing message inbox upon my return from bowling!

NOTE: our final regular-season poll is next week.  Then, just like the real poll, we'll be off until a final poll after Salem.

You can't rush excellence Mr. Y.

Received one while I was out, so up to 7.

Good news for seekers of excellence (or simply procrastinators) - Mrs. Y has just announced that I am taking her out to dinner, so release of the poll will be delayed!  Hope to have it by 10 or 11.

(No one lacking a death wish argues with Mrs. Y. )