Posters' Poll

[madzillagd]

I was curious about which teams have really been tested by other good squads.  I took a look at how teams did against teams with a .700 winning % or higher.  Here's how the D3Hoops Top 10 did...

1. St. Thomas 4-0
2. WPI 3-0
3. Whitworth 2-1
4. Rochester 6-0
5. Middlebury 0-1
6. Amherst 4-0
7. Williams 3-2
8. Catholic 3-1
9. Ill Wesleyan 5-2
10. Ramapo 4-1

[smedindy]

While I have NCC ahead of IWU by a tick, it's almost a rounding error in reality (out of 400+ teams, it is).

And while I do have sympathy for some teams with poor schedules in some instances, I don't really have much for Middlebury. Plenty of teams to choose from up there AND the NESCAC really should play more conference games. (He sayeth for how many years in a row...)

[Greek Tragedy]

One thing to keep in mind in sorting out IWU vs North Central is that the Titans had some key guys out in all 3 losses this season (all in the non-conference).  Consider these CCIW stats...

- Brady Zimmer (G), 6-4 Jr - 13.9 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 35-49 FG (.714), 9-13 3-point (.692), 25-30 FT (.833)  - leading scorer
- Pat Sodemann (G), 6-3 So - 11.7 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 1.5 apg, 25-26 FT (.962) - second leading scorer
- Victor Davis (F), 6-5 Jr - 10.6 ppg, 5.4 rpg - strongest, most physical player

IWU played UW-Whitewater without Sodemann, Wash U without Davis and Sodemann, and Franklin without Zimmer.  Honestly the injuries were huge in the UWW and Wash U games...the Titans were just awful at Franklin and FC was great.

Another consideration is the development of IWU's PG Dylan Overstreet.  He was a JV player exclusively last year and just wasn't very good throughout a lot of the non-conference.  But he's really had an outstanding CCIW season - one of IWU's most valuable players. 

Due to those injuries and the development of Overstreet, the Titans are just a very different right now than when they lost those games.

IMHO, I think its unrealistic for most of us to consider these situations. Unless we are fans of those teams, or at the very least, of the conferences they belong to, its tough for the regular poster to take into account these factors. Only speaking for myself, I barely have time to do what I do now, let alone go through boxscores to see who has played and who hasnt't or go through pages and pages of posts in each conference to read up on injuries.

I would not expect many of you to know that Stevens Point's best player has been out for most of the year, that part of the reason they lost to La Crosse was because their point guard and arguably their best defender in Austin Ryf didnt play or that Whitewater's point guard Cody Odegaard has been out for a long time.   

[smedindy]

I think of the season as a whole for the most part, and add a little weight to how teams are playing now, when I vote.

But you're going to get unlikely results that gobsmack the data. Right now, the biggest upset according to Massey (SPOLIER ALERT!!! DATA INVOLVED!! NOT JUST WATCHING VIDEO!!!) was Manchester beating Transylvania at Transylvania. I think Transy had some injuries, but that's a bad, weird, ugly result no matter if Transy was playing their JV. That's a tough place to play and Manchester is, well, a pretty awful basketball team this year. And yes, they beat my alma mater. (The Spartans were 3-1 at one point, ye Gods...)

I thought of this while watching TCU beat Kansas last night. Ken Pomeroy had that as a rounding error away from a 100% chance Kansas would win. That becomes the second most unlikely result in D-1, as somehow Old Dominion (2-20 with a coach dismissed just recently because he showed up late to a game recently allegedly 'not in game shape') beat Virginia.

Oh, well...SPORTS!

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I'll let you know, a one point win over Millikin has my attention and not in a good way.

[cardinalpride]

I'll let you know, a one point win over Millikin has my attention and not in a good way.

In a major d 3 conference, a team should not have to apologize for a road victory of any kind. Millikin did have a 20 pt victory last Saturday.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I'll let you know, a one point win over Millikin has my attention and not in a good way.

In a major d 3 conference, a team should not have to apologize for a road victory of any kind. Millikin did have a 20 pt victory last Saturday.

They do if they want me to keep ranking them ahead of IWU.

[Mr. Ypsi]

I'll let you know, a one point win over Millikin has my attention and not in a good way.

In a major d 3 conference, a team should not have to apologize for a road victory of any kind. Millikin did have a 20 pt victory last Saturday.

They do if they want me to keep ranking them ahead of IWU.

A simple solution: since IWU is 11-0 in the CCIW while NCC is 8-3, stop ranking them above IWU!

[cardinalpride]

I'll let you know, a one point win over Millikin has my attention and not in a good way.

In a major d 3 conference, a team should not have to apologize for a road victory of any kind. Millikin did have a 20 pt victory last Saturday.

They do if they want me to keep ranking them ahead of IWU.

You reserve the right to vote how you please. NCC and IWU will square off again on 2/19. If both teams aspire to be CCIW tournament champions, and I'm sure they do, there may be 3rd meeting the weekend of the 2/22-23. Point being, we will find out who's better in the next two weeks.

[Greek Tragedy]

I'll let you know, a one point win over Millikin has my attention and not in a good way.

In a major d 3 conference, a team should not have to apologize for a road victory of any kind. Millikin did have a 20 pt victory last Saturday.

They do if they want me to keep ranking them ahead of IWU.

A simple solution: since IWU is 11-0 in the CCIW while NCC is 8-3, stop ranking them above IWU!

And NCC has a nonconference record of 11-0, while IWU went 8-3...and that's where those records stood when our 1st Pollster's Poll came out.  As I explained in an earlier post, I had NCC really high (#2) and IWU (#21) really low.  They are now #2 and #5.

[Ralph Turner]

My picks  (Variant picks are in the "??")

2-4-13 Posters' Poll:

1.  St. Thomas   296 (1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,2,2,3)  [1]
2.  Rochester     266 (1,1,2,2,2,3,3,4,4,5,5,14)   [5]
3.  Whitworth     265 (2,2,2,2,2,3,3,3,3,4,7,14)     [3]
4.  NCC             239 (2,3,4,5,6,6,6,6,8,8,9,10)     *[11]
5.  WPI             226 (1,3,3,4,4,4,6,11,11,11,13,15)  [2]
6.  IWU*             217 (4,5,5,6,7,7,8,8,8,8,14,15)    [9]
7.  Catholic        212 (4,5,5,6,6,7,9,9,9,12,13,15)    [8]
8.  Williams        208 (5,5,5,6,7,7,8,10,11,12,13,15)  [7]
9.  UWSP          202 (3,7,7,8,8,8,9,11,12,12,12,13)    *[15]
10  Midd           198 (4,5,6,6,6,7,8,10,12,16,17,17)    [5]
11  UWW          164 (4,9,9,10,11,11,13,15,16,16,16,18)  [16]
12  St. Mary's    163 (7,9,9,10,12,12,13,13,14,14,15,21)  [12]
13  Amherst       155 (5,7,7,9,11,11,12,17,18,21,21,22)    [6]
14  Wooster       154 (4,10,11,11,11,12,13,14,14,17,19,22)  [14]
15  Hampden-S   140 (2,3,10,14,16,16,16,17,17,20,20,21)     [17]
16  Ramapo        134 (7,10  ?8?,10,14,14,14,14,16,17,17,18,-)  [10]
17  Calvin          123 (9,9,10,13,15,15,16,18,18,18,22,-)    [13]
18  Wheaton      83 (12,13,15,17,18,18,19,20,23,24,24,-)       [22]
19  RHIT            80 (10,15,15,16,20,21,21,22,23,23,23,22  ?24?)   [19]
20  WashU*         72 (13,15,16,17,18,19,20,22,23,25,-,-)       [20]
21  C Newport    63 (16,17,18,18,19,19,20,20,24,-,-,-)     [21]
22  UMHB           55 (12,19,19,20,21,21,22,23,24,24.-.-)   [RV 34]
23  UW-Stout     37 (10,20,21,22,23,23,=,-,-,-,-,-)        [RV 32]
24  Augustana     32 (13,19,19,21,-,-,-,-,-,-,-,-)         [RV 33]
25  RIC              24 (18,19,19,25,25,-,-,-,-,-,-,-)     [18]

26  Transy          21 (17,20,24,24,25,25) [RV 27]           
27  MIT             20 (19,21,21,23)    [23]
28  Cortland St   17 (21,22,22,23,25)   [24]
29  Stevens        10 (20,24,25,25)   [25]
30  OWU             8 (22,24,25.25)    [RV 28]
31  Brandeis        5 (24,24,25)  [RV 26]
t32 Albright         4 (22)    [RV 31]
t32 St. Norbert    4 (22)     [RV  35]
t34 Randolph       3 (23)     [Received no votes]
t34 Wesley          3 (23)     [RV 29]
36  Juniata          1     [Received no votes]

I will re-assess the CCIW.  IWU slipped up on me!  I think that Wash U is still that good. The UAA #2 is probably a Top 20 team every year.

WE are really out of line with the Top 25 voters. I have put the Top 25 in brackets at the end.

[Mr. Ypsi]

I'll let you know, a one point win over Millikin has my attention and not in a good way.

In a major d 3 conference, a team should not have to apologize for a road victory of any kind. Millikin did have a 20 pt victory last Saturday.

They do if they want me to keep ranking them ahead of IWU.

A simple solution: since IWU is 11-0 in the CCIW while NCC is 8-3, stop ranking them above IWU!

And NCC has a nonconference record of 11-0, while IWU went 8-3...and that's where those records stood when our 1st Pollster's Poll came out.  As I explained in an earlier post, I had NCC really high (#2) and IWU (#21) really low.  They are now #2 and #5.

True, but non-con is 'ancient history', while CCIW is 'now'!

[sac]

IWU vs NCC

head to head:  IWU 69 NCC 61

Common opponents:
vs Hope    IWU 1-0   NCC 1-0
vs Aug.    IWU 2-0   NCC  1-0
vs Car.     IWU 1-0   NCC 1-1
vs Elm.     IWU 2-0   NCC  2-0
vs Mill.     IWU 1-0   NCC  2-0
vs NP       IWU 2-0  NCC 1-0
vs Whe    IWU 2-0   NCC  1-1
Margin:     +205          +88

IWU: 11-0
NCC:  9-2

IWU's 3 non-conference losses came to Franklin, Washington, Whitewater.  IWU losing to Whitewater is pretty much the same as NCC losing to Wheaton.  IWU losing to Washington is better than NCC losing to Carthage.  Franklin is IWU's only 'bad' loss that can't be compared, IWU's head-to-head vs NCC trumps this result.

I have IWU #8, NCC #9.....which I actually feel might be at least a spot or two to low for both and will be worked out as my 5-7 Williams/Middlebury/Amherst trinity separates itself.

[7express]

Just sent mine in.  That was difficult this week.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Just sent mine in.  That was difficult this week.

Got it, but haven't opened it.  I never look at other voters' ballots until I've filled out mine, and I don't do mine until Daryl's "How They Fared" is posted (making sure I haven't forgotten/overlooked any important results).

I DO anticipate some major shake-ups this week.