Posters' Poll

[Gregory Sager]

I just sent them.  I've been sick all weekend, sorry for the delay.

Ditto, Chuck (except for the sick part). I just sent you my Top 25 via Personal Message.

[John Gleich]

I did too.  I actually WAS sick.     It wasn't fun.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Thanks, guys!  Ballots from GS, OS, and PS have been received.

Any more new voters?

[Greek Tragedy]

I did too.  I actually WAS sick.     It wasn't fun.

Just for the record, PS and I were NOT hanging out together this weekend. 

[Ralph Turner]

What happens in Vegas D3Hoops stays in Vegas D3Hoops. 

[John Gleich]

Ironically, my dad is on a flight home from Vegas as we speak... this is getting creapy!

[Mr. Ypsi]

Posters' Poll (week 2):

1. Albion, 291 (7)
2. Wittenberg, 284 (4)
3. Wooster, 282 (1)
4. Lawrence, 262
5. Hope, 235
6. Augustana, 227
7. IWU, 225
8. York, 208
9. Puget Sound, 200
10. Carnegie Mellon, 193
11. Balwin Wallace, 183
12. North Central, 154
13. Amherst, 129
14. WPI, 126
15. Wartburg, 124
16. Occidental, 95
17. Mississippi C, 85
17. St. John F, 85
19. Randolph-Macon, 82
20. NYU, 69
21. Hampden-Sydney, 55
22. UW-Stout, 49
23. UW-Whitewater, 40
24. Ohio Northern, 32
25. Carroll, 25

26. Bluffton, 22
27. Va. Wesleyan, 20
27. UW-LaCrosse, 20
29. Widener, 18
30. Lincoln, 15
31. Maryville, 13
32. Transylvania, 9
32. Wilmington, 9
34. Elmhurst, 8
35. UW-Oshkosh, 7
35. UWSP, 7
37. Catholic, 5
38. Cortland, 3
38. Tufts, 3
40. Rochester, 1

Some commentary when I return from picking up my son.

[Ralph Turner]

Mr Ypsi, can you add the number of first place votes to the list?

[Mr. Ypsi]

Mr Ypsi, can you add the number of first place votes to the list?

Thanks, Ralph, I had that on my tally and meant to do it!  I've edited the poll above to include that.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Some caveats on the poll.

Voters, please double and triple check (perhaps against the previous week's poll) to be sure you haven't ACCIDENTALLY omitted anyone you meant to include. 

One voter this week had Albion first, but left Hope completely off the ballot!  I messaged him, but didn't hear back in time - I decided to post the poll anyway, since Hope could not have overtaken Lawrence for fourth, but they are (presumably) much closer to fourth than the poll numbers show. 

Puget Sound was also completely left off one ballot (the other 11 voters averaged about 8th), but that voter has questioned UPS on other boards, so the omission MAY have been intentional.  If not, since being ranked even 16th would have pushed UPS past York, that particular order is iffy. 

WPI was totally omitted from 2 ballots - since the other 10 voters had them (on average) slightly above 14th, and since they only needed 4 points to surpass Amherst, that's another 'iffy' position.

Finally, Mississippi College, St. John Fisher, and Randolph-Macon were all within three points of one another.  MC and SJF were omitted from 1 ballot each, while RMC was left entirely off 3 ballots.  While we're now far enough down the food chain that I have no particular reason to believe these omissions were accidental, if any were, the 17-19 slots would be affected.

[sac]

I wouldn't worry about the "omissions" thats what a poll is supposed to be.

For instance I was one who had Widener solidly in the top 25.  However they didn't crack the actual top 25.  I'm fine with that its my opinion.

As a Hope fan I'm not bothered by being left completely off someone's ballot.........if I saw last Wed's game with Albion and that was my only game to go on, Hope wouldn't have sniffed by ballot.

Interesting that I had 24 of the 25 final teams on my ballot.  I'm going to pat myself on the back for that, I was also pretty darn close to the final poll.

Nice job Mr Y

[Ralph Turner]

Mr Ypsi, would a linear regression of the each voter's ballot versus the actual poll give you an idea of some voter who is competely off the mark?

I know I had 23 of 25 Pat's and the first 22 of 25 on Mr Ypsi's.
That double-check leads me to believe that my assessment is approximating the consensus.

[smedindy]

I don't think its a question of being 'off the mark' - just differing opinions, that's all.

This week I plan to do my first 'power ratings' since I think Massey and Wolfe have calmed down enough - so my top 25 may change a bit (or may not).

[Mr. Ypsi]

sac,

Of course I agree with you about teams in the bottom ten of the top 25.  But I figure leaving Hope out entirely is ALMOST certainly an oversight (among the other 11 voters, their LOWEST vote was 6th).

Last week I contacted a voter about a team he had omitted - he replied that he meant to rank them 11th!

I'm certainly not about to contact a voter as to whether or not they MEANT to include Carroll (MY choice for 23rd), but Hope?

The others I cited may well have been deliberate omissions, but other voters consistently had them high enough that I thought they MIGHT have been accidental omissions.

I just want to encourage voters to be certain that the picks they send are the picks they MEANT to send.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Mr Ypsi, would a linear regression of the each voter's ballot versus the actual poll give you an idea of some voter who is competely off the mark?

I know I had 23 of 25 Pat's and the first 22 of 25 on Mr Ypsi's.
That double-check leads me to believe that my assessment is approximating the consensus.

a) No doubt it would - YOU want to do it?!   I'll send you the data, if so!

b. All it would tell is how tight the consensus is - if it were PERFECTLY tight, a POLL would be redundant, since any one voter would already tell you everything you wanted to know!  (A person who perfectly matches the poll is NOT adding any 'extra value'.)

c. I think it is GREAT that with only twelve voters we none-the-less had votes for 40 schools.  While a few of those named are not on MY radar, it still gives flexibility.  After all, if you have someone drop out of the poll, they have to be replaced by SOMEBODY!