Posters' Poll

[NW Hope Fan]

The only difference between now and 3 weeks ago is that Puget Sound has 5 more wins and 1 more loss, their first against D3.  Granted the loss was at home (inexcusable) but Whitworth is a solid team, that might crack the Top 25 in the next poll.  At 14-2 Puget Sound did play some questionable teams, but they also did beat two D2 teams, and for what its worth UW-Stout.  Also I believe they are ranked 12th in the Massey and of course 7th in the latest Top 25 poll...okay enough politicking

I didn't vote, but...

I believe good teams should win close games (such as my Dutchmen on Saturday), but minus a few glaring coaching errors, LC beats UPS on Friday and finds themselves deep in the poll on Monday.

That being said, I was impressed with the comeback and win, and while I don't see many teams doing what LC did in the first half on Friday, I say UPS beware!

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I had about 15 teams for the final 5 slots.  I went with what I went with; I do expect it to change and UPS has a lot of room to prove themselves to me, as the NWC is a rough road to run through.

[Ralph Turner]

Time to 'fess up...

I am the poster who gave Carthage the 9th place vote.

I listened to Bob Quillman on Hoopsville comment about Steve Djurickovich's development and growth into the college game.

In a fit of "madness", I juggled all of my CCIW teams accordingly and put Carthage in at the top.

Bob specifically answered my question about the very ugly game versus  Southwestern at Trinity, an 82-72 loss.  This is a weak SU team, but the 56-49 win over Trinity TX the night before is what I would expect in that game.  Trinity has had trouble with ASC-West teams this year, a 67-65 win over TLU at home and only a 66-64 home win over HSU a week later.

I am assuming that Djurickovich is the difference, and Titan Q's assessment is prescient about how good this Carthage team can be as Steve develops.

I will give Carthage a week or two to earn that ranking or one relative to it.

That was the only major outlier that I had, and I wanted to "own up" to that assessment.  Now how far it is from #5 to #50 in the country is probably about 3 possessions on a neutral floor 1000 miles away from both teams.

[sac]

I am assuming that Djurickovich is the difference, and Titan Q's assessment is prescient about how good this Carthage team can be as Steve develops.

I would say its Fendley who was missing from the MIAA/CCIW Challenge in early December and did not return untill late December (after the E/W debacle and trip to Texas? ? ?).  Carthage lost both those games rather easily, neither final reflects the actual ease with which Hope and Calvin won those games.

Anyone who saw Carthage over those two days would be surprised to see them where they are, I don't think there any question having Fendley back on the floor has made a huge difference.  I wish I could see them in person now, because I still can't wrap my arms around how Carthage is leading the CCIW after seeing them in early December.  The only logical jump I can make is having another experienced offensive and defensive weapon on the floor.

[Titan Q]

Carthage is a different team than they were back mid-December, when they faced Trinity and Southwestern.  Sharp-shooting sophomore Sean Fendley made his season debut in the Trinity game, going 1-4 from 3 in 18 minutes off the bench.  Against Southwestern he was 1-8 in 21 minutes.

Bosko Djurickovic inserted Fendley, a 2-guard, into the starting lineup for the Red Men's first CCIW game, at Wheaton.  It really changed their lineup as it moved freshman sensation Steve Djurickovic (23.4 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 3.7 apg) from the 3 to the point, and former PG Joe Higgins went to the bench.  Higgins is a good ball-handler and passer, but he just is not a scoring threat at all (1.9 ppg in 29 min/game this year).  So with Fendley, Carthage now has one more serious scoring threat on the floor.

In CCIW play, Fendley is 13th in scoring (13.7 ppg) and is a very impressive 18-35 (.514) from 3-point range.  His impact has been enormous for the Red Men in a lot of ways, including the fact that his presence has allowed Djurickovic to shift to the point, where he's been outstanding.

Carthage played Hope and Calvin without Fendley, back when non-scoring threat Joe Higgins was the point-guard and Djurickovic was the 3.  They played Trinity and Southwestern with a Fendley that was just settling in after missing a lot of time with injury.  I am not 100% sold on Carthage myself, but they are a much, much better basketball team than they were in December.  That I'm sure of.

[sac]

So in summary, Ralph may be ahead of the curve with Carthage. 

For me at least I have them on the radar and have looked at them 2 weeks in a row.  But there are just so many teams with better records out there, they just miss my cut.  But keep winning in a conference I respect alot and those early season losses won't mean as much down the road.

[LogShow]

This is what I love about the Poster's Poll.  It flushes out lots of discussion that never would have happened

[magicman]

Nice to see all the honesty surfacing on this board.

Carthage certainly giving voters something to think about. I believe they will crack the top 25 in our poll next week if they win both of this week's games. Not sure that's going to happen though. I think they'll beat North Park and lose to the Titans on Sat. Even if they win both of those games I doubt they'll crack the D3 poll from their present 35th spot. Tough to make up for those early season losses. Now if they can somehow manage to win their next 5 games to take control of the conference then they will get that recognition and then some. Probably too much to ask though.

[Mr. Ypsi]

This is what I love about the Poster's Poll.  It flushes out lots of discussion that never would have happened

That has certainly been my hope all along!

A basic (unstated) issue is how much (if at all) should 'gut instinct' about now (e.g., taking into account missing players, changes in style, etc.) overrule total season performance?  For example, my 'gut' says that Carthage is now one of the top 15 teams in the country (and I really tried to fit them in somewhere, but just couldn't make it work), but so far December is just not yet enough 'distant past'!  Another example that I've wrestled with: Guilford.  Now that Tyler Sanborn is back to take some of the pressure off Ben Strong, I 'feel' they are a very legitmate threat to reach Salem.  But with their actual on-court results to date, I just couldn't get them higher than 20th (and 4 voters left them off entirely).

As the cliche goes: injuries are part of the game.  But since we are trying to rate teams 'now', how do we properly weigh actual results vs. 'what might have been'?  What is the proper balance between recent performance and total performance?

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I had Carthage at #3 in the CCIW and it was close between them and Wheaton based on results of late.  I just didn't have the CCIW as high this year.  I think there are more competitive teams in the conference this year, but the ceiling may be a bit lower than it's been in the recent past.

[sac]

Obviously the #1 vote was the biggest one last week, I moved Amherst into that slot, I had them #2 the week before so it wasn't really that hard for me.  Curious how others approached the #1 spot.


Also, I've struggled the UW's, and once again find myself ranking them right next to each other.  I see that there's quite a wide range of difference in them, I moved UW-Platteville into my poll and debuted them rather high at #13.  Platteville's probably the only team I would consider an outlyer from my poll.......other than the usual differences in teams in the bottom of the poll.

[smedindy]

Amherst was the logical #1 for me based on my previous polls.

I think the CCIW is creating a WIAC-style "let's just beat the tar out of each other" model this season so that it's hard to get a real read on how good many of those teams really are right now. Carthage has improved, but I take the entire body of work into consideration.

Even if their shooting guard and I share a name!

[John Gleich]

Obviously the #1 vote was the biggest one last week, I moved Amherst into that slot, I had them #2 the week before so it wasn't really that hard for me.  Curious how others approached the #1 spot.


Also, I've struggled the UW's, and once again find myself ranking them right next to each other.  I see that there's quite a wide range of difference in them, I moved UW-Platteville into my poll and debuted them rather high at #13.  Platteville's probably the only team I would consider an outlyer from my poll.......other than the usual differences in teams in the bottom of the poll.

What's interesting to me sac is the fact that UWSP, UW Whitewater, and UW Oshkosh all lost last week...  and it's interesting to note in what way they changed in the top 25 rating.

Whitewater had been at #6 with 472 votes.  Point was #7 with 461 votes.  Oshkosh was #20 with 168, and Platteville was ORV (4th team RV with 48 points).  Just for some context, Lawrence was also ORV (11th team RV with 10 points).

WW lost 99 points and 2 positions to 373 and 8th after losing to previously RV Platte.  Point lost 139 points and 5 positions dropping to 322 and 12th.  Oshkosh beat previously #7 Point, but also lost to previously RV Lawrence, stayed at #20 but lost 42 points.  Platte (beat #6 WW) gained 63 points and went from effective 26th (4th RV) to 22nd.  Lawrence beat #20 Oshkosh, gained 128 points and went from effective 26th (11th RV) to 19th.

What's amazing to me is this... apparently, the loss by Whitewater to Platteville wasn't as bad a loss as Point's to Oshkosh, even though Oshkosh had been ranked higher, and Point lost AT Oshkosh, while Platte had to go TO WW for the win.  Also, Lawrence's win against Oshkosh was better than Platteville's in against Whitewater, even though WW had been ranked 14 places ahead of Oshy.

... Now, I know that what I'm doing is along the lines of comparative scores... but it's interesting to view, nonetheless.


Also, I realize that this board is the PP board and not the top 25, but I think that there's more discussion here about where teams should be ranked etc than on the top 25 board.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Hey, PS, if you're gonna use the PP board, you've gotta resume voting in the PP!

We've missed you, Old School, Greg Sager, Knightstalker, and formerbant this year (apologies if I omitted any other former regulars).  And ILive4This and Marty Peretz, I hope you will become regulars.

[LogShow]

This is what I love about the Poster's Poll.  It flushes out lots of discussion that never would have happened

That has certainly been my hope all along!

A basic (unstated) issue is how much (if at all) should 'gut instinct' about now (e.g., taking into account missing players, changes in style, etc.) overrule total season performance?  For example, my 'gut' says that Carthage is now one of the top 15 teams in the country (and I really tried to fit them in somewhere, but just couldn't make it work), but so far December is just not yet enough 'distant past'!  Another example that I've wrestled with: Guilford.  Now that Tyler Sanborn is back to take some of the pressure off Ben Strong, I 'feel' they are a very legitmate threat to reach Salem.  But with their actual on-court results to date, I just couldn't get them higher than 20th (and 4 voters left them off entirely).

As the cliche goes: injuries are part of the game.  But since we are trying to rate teams 'now', how do we properly weigh actual results vs. 'what might have been'?  What is the proper balance between recent performance and total performance?

To me, I would think that you would have to vote based on past preformance.  If a strong team, that has been struggling, gets a top player back I wouldn't necessarily increase their position...but once the team's improvement is legitimized by winning a few games, I would say rank 'em wherever seems fit