WBB: GNAC Women's Hoops

[deiscanton]

GNAC Women's Semifinals-- Friday, February 24, 2023  (rescheduled from Thursday, Feb. 23 due to weather)

1.)  Final from "the Nest" in New Haven, CT--   #2N Emmanuel 66, #1S Albertus Magnus 55

2.)  Final from Standish, ME-- #1N St. Joe's Maine 83, #3N Rivier 55

GNAC Championship Game on Sunday--

Emmanuel at St. Joe's Maine

[deiscanton]

D3Hoops Women's action resumes today, and it resumes with a good one for Connecticut D3 fans.

At Noon ET at the Apex in New York, the University of St. Joseph will be vying for a quality win and bonus points for their team's NCAA Power Index rating when they play Trinity (CT).

The Trinity Bantams come into today unofficially ranked #21 in DIII in the NCAA power index ratings at 58.08, according to D3DataCast.   The St. Joseph Bluejays come into today's match unofficially ranked #123 in DIII in the NPI with an NPI rating of 51.60, also according to D3Datacast.

USJ's 51.60 NPI rating is the 2nd highest currently among GNAC teams.   Johnson & Wales unofficially has the highest NPI rating in the GNAC with an NPI rating of 54.63 (#67 in DIII).

Johnson & Wales built their resume to this NPI rating on the backs of 3 freshmen who start in their lineup.   One of them, Grace Jaffrey, has already been named to the D3 Team of the Week once due to her scoring a single game JWU record 43 points at Wheaton College (NEWMAC) in Norton, MA earlier this season.

Quality win base in DIII Women's basketball is a 54.000 NPI rating.

Other GNAC title contending teams and their NPI ratings this season as of today, according to D3Datacast--

Albertus Magnus-- 50.22 NPI  (#154 in D3)

Colby-Sawyer-- 49.35 NPI (#176 in D3)

St. Joseph's Maine-- 48.88 NPI (#194 in D3)

Rivier-- 48.69 NPI (#200 in D3)

Lasell-- 47.84 NPI (#218 in D3)

Emmanuel-- 47.55 NPI (#232 in D3)

[scottiedawg]

Quality win base in DIII Women's basketball is a 54.000 NPI rating.

The tiniest of nitpicks -> the "B" in QWB stands for Bonus. 54.00 is the Quality Win Bonus threshold.

[deiscanton]

Quality win base in DIII Women's basketball is a 54.000 NPI rating.

The tiniest of nitpicks -> the "B" in QWB stands for Bonus. 54.00 is the Quality Win Bonus threshold.

Thanks, scottiedawg, for pointing it out.  I get confused between the terms.

[deiscanton]

I watched Johnson and Wales with their talented rookies defeat Emmanuel by 3 points Tuesday night.

It is bittersweet that that particular game on Tuesday night was the last regularly scheduled conference game of the series between the two programs, as the JWU-Providence Wildcats will officially be a Conference of New England member next season.   (The JWU hockey teams are already competing in the CNE as Associate members.)

The gym in Providence that is now known as the Wildcat Center used to be known as the Harborside RAC, and the GNAC conducted its conference tournament semifinals and championship games in both men's and women's basketball at this location for many years (from the late 1990s through at least the 2000-01 season.)  I remember taking the local train down to Providence in 2000-01 and spending the entire days on Friday and Saturday of conference tournament week watching the men's and women's semifinals on Friday, and the 2 championship games on Saturday.   It was great watching the 2000-01 Emmanuel team win the GNAC Women's title on the Harborside RAC floor defeating Western New England and Norwich in the semis and championship game in Providence after watching Emmanuel defeat Pine Manor in the GNAC quarterfinals at the old Marian Hall Gym in Boston.   That was the start of a great NCAA championship run that eventually had Emmanuel defeating NYU at Coles Center in the DIII Elite Eight to make it to a DIII Final Four match with Wash U in Danbury, CT.   

Although I mostly watch games through streaming these days due to financial reasons , it is always great watching games in person when you get the chance and can afford the trip. 

Well, Emmanuel plays Rivier tonight, and I will be looking forward to Jan. 15 to watch on live video stream the JWU Wildcats attempt to defeat the St. Joe's (Maine) Monks on the road in Maine. 

[deiscanton]

Well, it looks like I saw another first time event play out on video stream today. 

To my knowledge, Rivier has never beaten Emmanuel in GNAC play in women's hoop until today.  Tonight, though, Rivier was definitely the better team.   Emmanuel shot very poorly at the charity stripe and on field goal attempts.   Emmanuel had 20 more FG attempts tonight than Rivier, but the Raiders shot the ball better on FG percentage.   Rivier also made more 3's for the game than Emmanuel, and the Raiders outrebounded Emmanuel as well.

As badly as Emmanuel performed, the game still came down to the final 5 minutes, thanks to some heroic performances from Emmanuel's Olivia Matela that kept the Saints in the ball game.  Rivier was only up by 4 points with 5 minutes left, but both teams each scored 10 pts down that last 5 minute stretch for the 60-56 Rivier final.

According to Scott Peterson's Season Simulations, both Emmanuel and Rivier came into today with each team having a 3 percent chance to win the GNAC tournament at the end of the season and get the AQ, based on team efficiency numbers.

The GNAC is definitely a 1 bid league, with only JWU-Providence having a very slim chance at an at-large bid at only 4 percent, according to the same season simulations.   

You can find Scott Peterson's most recent season simulations for D3 Women's Hoop at http://d3data.weebly.com

[deiscanton]

Emmanuel has posted their game recap of last night's game vs Rivier.

Officially, last night was the first time that Rivier has ever beaten Emmanuel in women's basketball.

Last night was the 35th meeting all time between the Rivier Raiders and the Emmanuel Saints, and Emmanuel won the previous 34 meetings, according to the Emmanuel game recap.

(January 10--6:15 AM ET update-- Rivier's game recap of the same game from last night acknowledges 32 of those losses, and states that 32 losses took place from the 1995 season on-- If my memory serves me correctly, the Great Northeast Athletic Conference started league play in that same 1995 season.  This probably means that Rivier and Emmanuel played each other a few times pre-GNAC era.)

In my opinion, while Emmanuel should still make the GNAC tournament,(the top 10 finishers out of 15 teams make the conference tournament) the Saints will be hard-pressed to avoid the Monday play-in round (for seeds 7 through 10) at this rate.   Even if Emmanuel does avoid the play-in round, the most likely GNAC tournament scenarios have Emmanuel landing a #5 or #6 seed in the tournament and having to play a Tuesday quarterfinal game away from Andy Yosinoff Court in Boston.

[deiscanton]

Great feature article on D3Hoops.com on Andy Yosinoff today in an Around the Nation column written by Brian Lester about Yosinoff's 48 years at Emmanuel and counting and the fact that he is on the first round ballot of voting for induction into the Naismith Hall of Fame in Springfield, MA for the second year in a row. 

The article comes at a crucial time in the season for the Saints.   Emmanuel lost their final non-conference game of the season last night to Salve Regina-- it was the first time since the DIII NCAA first round women's basketball game in 2004 that the Seahawks defeated the Saints.  Emmanuel has 2 must-win GNAC games this week against Lasell and Norwich if the Saints are to qualify for the GNAC tournament with a seed that will avoid a GNAC play-in game. 

Emmanuel only has 5 wins on the season so far-- only one of which is against a New England-based team (Thomas of Waterville, ME).  The other 4 wins are vs Hunter and 3 SCIAC teams, the best of which was a quality win at Pomona-Pitzer in the first game of Emmanuel's 2 game California trip.  The other 2 SCIAC teams that Emmanuel defeated are CMS (the title game of Emmanuel's tip-off invitational) and La Verne (at La Verne in the second game of the California trip.)

Before Emmanuel tips off against Lasell tonight, JWU-Providence is on the road against the reigning GNAC champion St. Joseph's (Maine) Monks.   We will see if the rookies of JWU have what it takes to compete with (and hopefully beat) the Monks tonight. 

Of particular interest to me as it relates to Lasell is that a player from my hometown currently is leading the Lasers in scoring.   Her claim to fame is that she competed in high school against NYU star Caroline Peper in the same high school league, the Hockomock.  Lasell's Kiara Cerruti is a former Canton HS Bulldog, while Peper played for the Oliver Ames Tigers.  Cerruti transferred to Lasell from UMass-Dartmouth after her freshman year-- Cerruti thought that she could be a 3 sport star with the Corsairs (basketball, cross country, and track and field).  At least at Lasell, she is sticking to basketball and she is contributing to her team quite nicely.

So there will be 2 GNAC games that I will be watching at least part of tonight on live stream (along with the big Wed. night match in the CCIW between Illinois Wesleyan and Carthage live on stream from the Shirk Center in Bloomington, IL.)

[deiscanton]

The last 4 games have not been great for longtime followers of Coach Andy Yosinoff and the Emmanuel Saints--

Emmanuel now 0-3 in the GNAC through the first 3 games-- I don't recall the last time this has ever happened.

(Jan. 16. 2025 1:34 AM ET update-- I went through the GNAC history of Emmanuel since the GNAC started women's basketball play in the 1995-96 season, and this is the first time in Emmanuel history that the Saints have gone 0-3 in GNAC play to start the season.   The Saints have only lost 3 GNAC games all season just once before, and that was last season (2023=24) when Emmanuel lost regular season games vs the St. Joe (CT) Bluejays, the Albertus Magnus Falcons, and the St. Joe's (Maine) Monks in conference play.)

Johnson & Wales gets their first win over Emmanuel since coach Corey Boilard coached the Wildcats just before leaving to coach D2 Saint Anselm--also happened in their final regularly scheduled GNAC conference game, as the Wildcats are headed to the Conference of New England next season.

Rivier gets their first ever program victory over Emmanuel.

Lasell gets their first ever program victory over Emmanuel.  Emmanuel held to a season low 21.1% from the field, 19% from 3 pt range.

In non-conference play, Salve Regina gets their first regular season win over Emmanuel-- last time the Seahawks defeated the Saints was in the first round of the 2004 NCAA DIII Women's Basketball Tournament.

If the season ended today, Emmanuel would not make the GNAC Tournament-- the Saints are in the bottom 5 of the current GNAC standings with Norwich, Mitchell, Colby-Sawyer, and Dean.   

Emmanuel plays at Norwich on Saturday, and one of them will get their first GNAC win.

[deiscanton]

Emmanuel finally gets their first GNAC win of the season today, and it is also their second win over a New England D3 opponent of the season as well.  The Saints defeated Thomas College (NAC-Waterville, ME) in non-conference play early in the year, but Emmanuel's 4 other D3 wins prior to today were over a CUNYAC team (Hunter) and 3 SCIAC teams (Pomona-Pitzer, Claremont-Mudd-Scripps and La Verne.) That is just for trivia, D3 women's basketball does not care where the game is played as long as the team meets the 70% in-region scheduling requirement.  (500 miles from campus, same NCAA administrative region, or conference play-- Defined evaluation regions are really a thing of the past under the new NPI system.) Emmanuel is now 6-9, 1-3 in GNAC play after their win today over Norwich.

This GNAC win was a pretty comfortable one too up in Northfield, VT-- with the Saints winning 79-57 this afternoon.   Emmanuel remains 3 1/2 games back of first place USJ, with the Saints hosting USJ on Tuesday night this upcoming week, followed by a trip to Mitchell next Saturday to conclude GNAC play for the week.  Emmanuel has a game in hand in GNAC play to catch up later this season, and the Saints should get enough GNAC wins out of their remaining 10 GNAC games left to qualify for the conference tournament, but they have some work to do to avoid the Monday play-in round. 

In other news, Lasell's Kiara Cerruti did not play today vs NE College as well.  The all-time leading scorer out of Canton (MA) High School (by that, I mean Cerruti) is probably injured.  Here's hoping for a speedy recovery.  The Lasers came from behind to defeat the Pilgrims up in Henniker, NH this afternoon and remain in a 5 way tie for second at 4-1 in the GNAC behind USJ.

Earlier today, I watched USJ defeat Rivier on video stream to give Coach Wendy Davis her 79th win as head coach of the Bluejays.   Coach Davis now has 79 wins in her USJ tenure, and is now the winningest coach in USJ women's basketball program history.  Congrats to this pioneering UConn Husky. 

With St. Joe's Maine's come from behind win at Albertus Magnus this afternoon, USJ is now in sole possession of first place in the GNAC through 5 of 14 single round-robin games.  There is a 5 way tie for second place at 4-1 between Albertus Magnus, JWU-Providence, St. Joe's Maine, Lasell, and Rivier.  Anna Maria is in 7th place at 3-2 in GNAC play.  Tied for 8th place at 2-2 in GNAC play are Elms and Regis (MA), and Emmanuel is the 10th and final team in the GNAC tournament if the season were to end today at 1-3 in GNAC play.  Emmanuel has 10 GNAC games left to play. 

[deiscanton]

Yesterday, I watched Emmanuel get their 2nd GNAC win of the season, and it was a game that the Saints had to win if they had any chance of avoiding a Monday play-in/1st round game in the GNAC tournament.  The Saints got a crucial home victory over then-sole leader USJ, 78-67.  Emmanuel had a significant height advantage over USJ in the front court, as well as in the center position in 6 ft. 4 in. Kaitlyn Bartash, which proved crucial to the outcome.  Kaitlyn Bartash of Emmanuel led all Saints with 14 pts., 5 rebounds, a career game high 7 blocked shots, 3 assists, and 2 steals.  Emmanuel's Olivia Matela, Desiree Robinson, and Kaila Saunders each scored 12 points a piece in the win.   For USJ, Jordan Ouilette led with a game high 21 points, and 8 rebounds.  Ouilette's 8 rebounds for the game helped USJ to outrebound Emmanuel by 1 for the game.

The win puts Emmanuel at 2-3 in the GNAC, still in 10th place, but having an easier path to enter the GNAC tournament in the Tuesday Feb. 25 quarterfinal round by getting one of the top 6 seeds.  (Seeds 7 through 10 have to play in the Monday Feb. 24 first round, with the Monday winners playing the next day at the #1 and #2 seeds.)

Emmanuel's next 3 GNAC games are at Mitchell this Saturday, at Regis (MA) next Wednesday, and home against Dean the following Saturday before the Saints go to "the Nest" in New Haven, CT to play Albertus Magnus on Tuesday, Feb. 4.

In other news, congrats to Rivier's Lyric Grumblatt on becoming the GNAC's all-time leading scorer in women's hoop yesterday.  Grumblatt scored 23 points to pass Aliah Curry (Norwich class of 2015) for first place all time.  Lyric Grumblatt now has 2,269 career points for Rivier, surpassing Aliah Curry's 2,267 career points for Norwich.

Rivier hosts Albertus Magnus on Saturday.

To conclude this post, here are Scott Peterson's latest 1,000 computer season simulations of the GNAC women's conference race ran on Monday, Jan. 20.

No GNAC team got an at-large bid in any of the 1,000 season simulations, so these would be the number of times per 1,000 season simulations that each contending team got the AQ out of GNAC.  Info courtesy of http://d3data.weebly.com

1.)  St. Joe's Maine got the AQ 453 times out of 1,000.
2.)  JWU-Providence got the AQ 262 times.
3.)  USJ got the AQ 174 times.
4.)  Albertus Magnus got the AQ 47 times.
5.)  Rivier got the AQ 44 times.
6.)  Emmanuel got the AQ 19 times.
7.)  Lasell got the AQ 1 time.
 

[scottiedawg]

It tightened up after last night!

St. Joe's Maine had a rough game @ Bowdoin (the cool part about Efficiency Margin is it factors in that Bowdoin is REALLY good—so St. Joe's' EffMarg didn't get hammered even though they lost by 35, but it definitely went down, which affects simulations of future games).

JWU-Providence got a nice win over Albertus Magnus (that win is now BANKED, it cannot change!!  J&W's EffMarg didn't change however).

USJ had a rough game, took a loss, and saw their EffMarg go down.

New sims this morning:
1.)  St. Joe's Maine got the AQ 430 times out of 1,000.
2.)  JWU-Providence got the AQ 330 times.
3.)  USJ got the AQ 108 times.
4.)  Albertus Magnus got the AQ 50 times.
5.)  Rivier got the AQ 47 times.
6.)  Emmanuel got the AQ 35 times.
7.)  Lasell got the AQ 0 times.

and of course, simulating future games is not a prediction—variability happens—teams change—and so much more.

[deiscanton]

It tightened up after last night!

St. Joe's Maine had a rough game @ Bowdoin (the cool part about Efficiency Margin is it factors in that Bowdoin is REALLY good—so St. Joe's' EffMarg didn't get hammered even though they lost by 35, but it definitely went down, which affects simulations of future games).

JWU-Providence got a nice win over Albertus Magnus (that win is now BANKED, it cannot change!!  J&W's EffMarg didn't change however).

USJ had a rough game, took a loss, and saw their EffMarg go down.

New sims this morning:
1.)  St. Joe's Maine got the AQ 430 times out of 1,000.
2.)  JWU-Providence got the AQ 330 times.
3.)  USJ got the AQ 108 times.
4.)  Albertus Magnus got the AQ 50 times.
5.)  Rivier got the AQ 47 times.
6.)  Emmanuel got the AQ 35 times.
7.)  Lasell got the AQ 0 times.

and of course, simulating future games is not a prediction—variability happens—teams change—and so much more.

Thanks for the update, Scottiedawg.

[deiscanton]

Just when I thought that tonight was not really going to be an interesting evening in GNAC women's hoop-- the best game on the slate of Rivier at Lasell tonight was between two teams who had both taken their 2nd loss in GNAC play on Saturday and dropped out of first place in the GNAC, Lyric Grumblatt of Rivier made tonight interesting in the end with another individual best as Rivier defeated Lasell in Newton, MA this evening by a score of 83-64.

Tonight, Lyric Grumblatt of Rivier scored a career high 46 points vs Lasell and retook the season lead for best individual game high in points scored by a D3 women's basketball player this season.

Grumblatt's previous career high of 44 points was tied by Bri Frongillo of Emerson just a few days ago when Frongillo dropped 44 on Coast Guard in a NEWMAC women's basketball game. 

Grace Jaffray's 43 points scored vs Wheaton (MA) this season is tied for third place among D3 women's basketball players in this category this season along with Lauren Klieber of Neumann, who dropped 43 vs Widener on the same day that Jaffray scored her career high 43 points in her second game of her college career.

In other news, Emmanuel improves to 4-3 in the GNAC with their win at Regis (MA) this evening.  Emmanuel's position in the GNAC standings is still in the zone where the Saints would have to play a Monday first round game in the GNAC tournament if the season were to end today, although the Saints would play that first round game at home at Andy Yosinoff Court before playing on the road vs the #1 seed the next day in the GNAC quarterfinals assuming Emmanuel won that Monday first round game. 

USJ concludes this evening of GNAC women's basketball play alone in first place by 1/2 game as St. Joe's Maine defeated NE College this evening in league play, and JWU-Providence had their conference bye this evening.

[deiscanton]

I guess when only 65 people watched yesterday's Emmanuel home women's basketball game vs Dean in person according to the box score that Coach Andy Yosinoff has to shout on Facebook about the fact that the Saints made a single game program record 13 3 pointers yesterday vs Dean College in GNAC play.

Emmanuel beat Dean by 53 points in GNAC play yesterday.  Not unusual considering that the Dean Bulldogs are currently #370 of 417 D3 women's basketball teams in the unofficial women's NPI ratings this morning according to D3Datacast.  Dean has 4 wins overall on the season and is winless in GNAC play.  Dean has not beaten a D3 opponent since November 26, 2024, when the Bulldogs beat Fitchburg State for their 4th D3 win of the season.  Dean has only defeated Mount Holyoke, Lesley, Wentworth, and Fitchburg State this season for their 4 D3 victories overall.  Dean also has a win vs NAIA Fisher. 

Must win game on Tuesday at Albertus Magnus for the Saints if Emmanuel is going to avoid having to play in the GNAC Monday first round.  Emmanuel also hosts Elms in GNAC play this upcoming Thursday before the St. Joe's Maine Monks come to Boston on Wednesday, Feb. 12.