MBB: USA South Conference

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

First Regional Rankings: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3hoops/2011/02/02/ncaas-mens-regional-rankings/

[GuyFormerlyPSBBG]

Magic Number Standings

Ferrum	X
NCWC	4
CNU	3
Greensboro	1
Methodist	ELIM
Shenandoah	ELIM
Averett	ELIM

Magic Number Formula : (G+1)-W₁-L₁

G: Conference Games
W₁: Conference Leader Wins
L₁: Not Conference Leader Losses

[narch]

nice 82-68 win for the monarchs tonight...they've got a shot at a 10 win season, which is nice when your team is coming off of a 3 win season...hopefully they can knock off the mighty capts this weekend

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Week 3 Regional Rankings are out: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3hoops/2011/02/16/ncaa-2011-regional-rankings-week-3/

[narch]

if the captains can beat greensboro and the monarchs can pull out a road win vs. shenandoah, the monarchs get a first round tournament home game, despite the loss today...

[narch]

mu holds on for a 61-58 win @ su while cnu squeaks out a 3 point victory over the pride, giving the monarchs the #4 seed and a home tournament game...mu finishes the regular season at 10-15, 4-7...the season has been a nice improvement from last year's 3 win....umm....season

now i'd like to see this team make some noise in the tourney!

[leroy]

mu holds on for a 61-58 win @ su while cnu squeaks out a 3 point victory over the pride, giving the monarchs the #4 seed and a home tournament game...mu finishes the regular season at 10-15, 4-7...the season has been a nice improvement from last year's 3 win....umm....season

now i'd like to see this team make some noise in the tourney!

narch, and MU returns all 5 starters and 85% of their scoring next season.  dare i jinx it, but MU seems to have a group that SHOULD return next year (pencil it in like all USA South teams do).  averaging a similar rate, jernigan could finish as the 6th leading scorer in school history.  not getting ahead of ourselves here....but a win at home vs GC should be expected (although tough because they just did it a week ago) and a quick trip to beat the over-achieving and primed to be upset Bishops, sets up a MU @ FC final.  MU has a recent history of winning at Ferrum.  i could see the 6th NCAA tourney appearance in school history this season.  am i getting ahead of myself?  maybe, but regardless, 20 wins for MU in 2010-11.

[narch]

leroy - i like your optimism, i really do...but i'm not ready to go out on that thin branch you're calling a limb...not yet, anyway

i just hope the monarchs can win on tuesday...that would be a nice start

[Allen C]

I have to admit, I am not all that familiar with the D3 B-Ball playoff format- Is it like DI 64 teams? Are there at large bids available to the tourney?

[Pat Coleman]

http://www.d3hoops.com/interactive/faq/ncaatournament

[narch]

ok...i haven't done this in a while, so i opened excel and plugged in some numbers to compute PVR (player value rating)

here is the formula i used (using statistics from conference games, only):
[(points+reb+steals)*1.5 + (assists+blocks)*2 - (to's+missed fg+missed ft)]/games played

here are the results:
SCHOOL   NAME                   YR   POS   PVR   PPG   RPG
1st five
FC   Derek Mitchell   Sr   F   40.25   18.5   11.8
CNU   Mike Green   Sr   F   34.46   18.7   8.6
CNU   Conley Taylor   Jr   G   32.21   22.4   4.5
MU   Bryan Hockaday   Fr   F   28.63   13.6   8.4
FC   Keith Crump   Sr   G   28.50   14.2   2.7

2nd five
SU   Mitch Dudley   Sr   F   26.46   13.2   9.3
NCWC   Alex Murray   Jr   F   25.25   13.1   5.9
CNU   Tra Benefield   Fr   G   25.17   14.0   7.9
AU   Marquis Scott   So   G   24.88   11.8   8.2
NCWC   Matt Dougherty   Jr   G   24.75   16.1   4.6

3rd five
GC   Daren Dexter   Sr   F   24.69   14.0   7.2
MU   Kyle Combs   So   F   23.25   11.2   7.9
SU   Kevin Kline   Sr   F   22.17   15.2   4.5
NCWC   Domarius Thomas   Jr   F   21.67   12.3   5.9
MU   Mark Jernigan   Jr   G   21.56   13.4   5.2

4th five
FC   Marcus Mayo   Jr   G   18.83   11.0   3.8
FC   Lamont King   So   F   18.75   10.2   4.1
AU   Kenny Hart   Jr   F   18.13   14.7   5.8
GC   Damian Dixon   Fr   G   18.04   12.6   3.2
AU   Justin Pierce   So   G   17.46   11.8   3.4

[narch]

my poty: derek mitchell, fc
his all-around game is simply too much to overlook and pushes him past conley tayor - mitchell is not a "volume scorer" (of the 22 players analyzed, only 2 shot a lower percentage than conley taylor's 40.6%)...mitchell shot nearly 65%, which is almost 8% higher than his nearest competitor among those analyzed and he's the only player in the conference to average a double double...i'll be glad to see him go

my roty: bryan hockaday, mu
benefield (cnu) was close, but hockaday's shot-blocking, rebounding and offensive efficiency  make the difference...plus, he's a monarch, and this is MY award

my coty: john thompson, ncwc
for perhaps the first time in history, i will say that ncwc overacheived...the bishops have typically been long on talent, short on results, but this is a team that was 5th in the preseason poll and won the conference title

[narch]

a couple of other statistical highlights i'll throw out...

in conference, keith crump had 78 assists and just 17 to's...that's an amazing 4.59/1 assist to to ratio - he also shot 83% from the line, leading the conference in conference play...nice...that's exactly what you want from a pg

marcus mayo was clearly the best starting qb on the floor...that kid is a beast of an athlete...i think he should forego his senior eligibility in football and hoops and go pro...at something

su finished next to last in the conference...and loses arguably their best 2 players (as measured by PVR) - fc loses a lot, as well...

the trio of juniors at ncwc might make one think the bishops should be good next year, as well...or at least there will be that expectation

[Seatfiller]

I havent seen that much USA South Conference basketball but Derek Mitchell is a monster for Ferrum one of the best overall big man ive seen at the d3 level, if he doesnt win POY in the conference something is seriously wrong

[narch]

btw - i am not predicting that hockaday will be a first-team all-conference player...i think he's got a SHOT at being named a 2nd teamer and i think dougherty from ncwc will replace him on the first-team ballot