MBB: USA South Conference

[narch]

captj - once again you have inspired me to crunch some numbers...you are my statistical muse

over the last 3 full seasons (chosen because the usasac website gives EASILY accessible home and away records for those seasons), in conference games only (to accomodate for varying degrees of ooc schedule strength) here are some numbers to ponder re: "toughest place to play in the conference"

team	home rec	win %	away rec	win %	win % diff
su	15-5	.75	6-14	.30	+.45
mc	19-1	.95	14-6	.70	+.25
cnu	16-4	.80	13-7	.65	+.15
gc	13-7	.65	10-10	.50	+.15
fc	7-13	.35	4-16	.20	+.15
au	5-15	.25	2-18	.10	+.15
ncw	11-9	.55	9-11	.45	+.10

conclusion - over the last 3 years, su is DEFINATELY the "toughest" place to play, followed by mc, with ncwc being the "easiest" place to play as measured by home win % vs. road win % differential

i think the gc fans may have been literally talking about hanes as the TOUGHEST place to play...ie - it's so old and rickety that it's TOUGH to play there?

[hasanova]

Haynes is the toughest place to play in conf.

Pretty bold statement!

I thought it was "Hanes" Gym, but hey, I've only been there a few times.

[narch]

what a difference adding 2 years makes

here are the records for the last 5 years

team	home rec	win %	away rec	win %	win % diff
su	22-11	.67	10-23	.30	+.37
au	13-20	.39	5-28	.15	+.24
gc	20-13	.61	13-20	.39	+.22
ncw	22-11	.67	16-17	.48	+.19
cnu	28-5	.85	22-11	.67	+.18
fc	12-21	.36	6-27	.18	+.18
mc	27-6	.82	23-10	.70	+.12

what does this tell me?  that hanes STILL isn't the toughest place to play in the usasac and the monarchs and captains have been pretty good in conference, wherever they have played, over the last 5 years

[hugenerd]

I have nothing to do this league, but I disagree with that analysis.  You are punishing good teams for winning on the road vs. winning at home.  According to your analysis, a team that wins 100% of home games and 100% of away games would be at the bottom of your list because their differential would be 0 (likewise if a team loses all their games on the road and 40% at home, they would be at the top of your list).  Just because a team only wins 1/3 of their away games and 2/3 of their home games doesn't make them a good team or a tough team to play at home (especially since they are losing 1/3 of their games at home).  I would look at your analysis and see that cnu and mc have the best records at home and on the road by far, so I wouldn't even bring any other teams into the analysis.

[cnu85]

Thanks hugnerd...as an analytic guy by occupation.....the away record for each school and the subsequent differential has nothing to do with a teams home record when trying to figure out the toughest place to play.

Having said that, I still think Narch came up with the data on the home records and that shows a couple fo things....going back 3 years MC is the toughest place to win (for schools other than MC). and going back 5 years it's CNU with MC a very close second. So, if I had to make an analysis combining those figures I would have to say that MC is the toughest place to play and win currently......the trend is that they are winning more, lately. Of course to really prove that you would need to figure out the same stats for the past 2 years, the past year, and then look at this year.

Either way - it sure as heck ain't GC.

[captj]

According to your analysis, a team that wins 100% of home games and 100% of away games would be at the bottom of your list because their differential would be 0 (likewise if a team loses all their games on the road and 40% at home, they would be at the top of your list). 

I like this nerd guy.  He's absolutely correct... this analysis is rubbish.  Imagine that; a team that sweeps the conference and wins every home and away game would come in LAST in narch's analysis.

Here is the bottom line... The current USASAC teams have won in Newport News 6 times in the last decade.  Read that again... 6 LOSSES IN A DECADE.  A place where visiting teams almost never win is a pretty tough place to play. 

[captj]

That said, if you look at ONLY the last 3 years, Methodist's 95% winning percentage at home makes them the "Monarchs" for that period.  But, like narch said, when you go back two more years CNU's 85% home winning percentage edges them out.  And if you go back a decade like I'd like to do, CNU's 90% over such a long period is CNUnbeatable.

[narch]

nerd/captj/85 - obviously, cnu and mc have been the toughest places to play in the usasac as measured by home wins (with gc ranking 5th out of 7 schools), but is that because of the location of the game or the quality of the team that plays in that venue?? - as the numbers show, cnu and mc are tough to beat REGARDLESS of where they play...oh yeah, keep in mind the "disclaimer" at the bottom of my analysis

as measured by home win % vs. road win % differential

clearly some teams are substantially more difficult to beat at home (see su), which leads me to believe there is either something about the facility or mindset of the players that gives them a legit "home court advantage"

i think any way you slice it, it's going to be hard for a gc fan to substantiate the claim that "haynes [sic] is the toughest place to play in conf."

[narch]

He's absolutely correct... this analysis is rubbish. 

rubbish?  isn't that a bit harsh, j?  every analysis needs a frame of reference or control group...the away records served that purpose in this analysis...analysis without some sort of framework is simply running numbers, and any 7th grader can do that...this is high level stuff, man

and a decade is ancient history in sports...no need to go beyond 3 years, in my opinion (of course, the last 3 years are MOST FAVORABLE for monarch fans  )

[narch]

let's get an insider's opinion - isoar, you played in every gym in the usasac and had a pretty nice home conference record in your time in a monarch uniform

what is the toughest place to play in the usasac and why?

p.s. - the monarchs sure could use the little things you did in the green and gold...setting solid screens, hustling after loose balls, grabbing some rebounds and occassionally throwing one down would be nice things to see in the monarch post players right now

[GCman82]

Hanes hoodlums will be out in full force on Sat.  GC will roll NCW!  Remember this GC is very close to 3-0 in the conf.  Only lost by a combined total of five points in first two games.
ROLL PRIDE!!!

[ISoar]

I assume by "toughest" places to play we're talking about fans.  So here's my take on it:

As much as I hate to say it...toughest place to play over the past four years was CNU.  There's a lot of history there, the fans pretend to understand basketball, they get loud for every game...and they get on you, of course playing a solid team doesn't make it any easier.  I still remember looking up at the scoreboard with about 8min left in the game my So. year after Seth said, "We might score 100 this game."...........We didnt score again for the rest of the game.  Nice Seth. 

Last year, GC was tough, a good amount of people in a small gym=loud.  We had that whole bad blood thing between the two teams.  Everyone was talking about how great GC was going to be...again.  The team really responded to the crowd, but if I remember at  the conf tourny, the fans get bored pretty easily when things don't go their way.   (For the record, GC stole our saying.  Green Gold, You Know...Except they say, Greensboro, You know....weak GC...weak.)

SU hasnt had great fans since my fr year.  They seemed kind of fair weather.  They have like three cheerleaders who kinda...dont do much...its less than impressive. 

AU has a small(for the size of the gym) but VERY loud cheering section that sits directly behind the bench and yells...all game...about nothing...and everything.  Winning? yelling.  Losing? yelling.  Timeout? yelling.  freethrow? yelling, After the game? It could have been confused for yelling but it was actually crying. 

When NCW was good, they had good fans.  They would usually pick one or two guys, and stay on them the whole game.  Last year they kinda gave up early. 

FC...  I never want to play there.  Worst. Place. Ever.  Long Ride.  No Town. They had one fan, who was at every game, he left when his son transferred.  When their team runs out, it sounds like someone is trying to start the slow clap. 

As for MC... the first three years  Our fans were pretty weak.  Our cheerleaders didn't lead cheers.  I've seen fans actually cheer the other team, because of a blocked shot, or a dunk.  Weak.  During an SU game, where we were playing for a conf championship, it was a two point game with less than 5min left and you could hear a pin drop.  Last year was better, but it was still kinda random.  One thing our fans lack is basketball IQ.  It might have something to do with the fact that we have very few homegames.  Maybe its just because I'm from Gainesville that I'm so critical of our fans, but maybe its because they really aren't that great. 




all misspellings in this post were intentional.

[captj]

narch –

"Rubbish" might be harsh, but your formulaic method was certainly flawed.  The example that nerd provided is pretty conclusive proof of that.  The reality of it is that there is probably no way to calculate "the toughest place to play" statistically or scientifically.  It is probably going to have to be done in some subjective way, which you have suggested by asking ISoar for his opinion.

I know this about CNU's home games; we put a lot of fans into the Freeman.  Against Shenandoah last week the attendance was almost 1100, and the students weren't even back from semester break yet.  When we beat your Monarchs last season there were almost 1900 delirious on hand fans to witness it.  And they don't sit on their hands and talk about current affairs.  They are loud and into the game.  I hope you've been to the Freeman for one of our games.  The atmosphere (and the team's success) is what keeps guys like 85 and me, as well as many of our former professors and classmates, returning year after year.  It's great to see Dr. Paul, Dr. Coker, CJ's brother Charlie (former coach at W&M), and occasionally a guy that you might have heard of named Bruce Hornsby.  Dr. Coker goes to ALL games, men and women. 

I can't prove it, of course, but I think that opposing teams are pretty intimidated by all of it.  I know this; when the Hornets were warming up for the game last week several of their guys were sweating PROFUSELY a few seconds into warm-ups.  Sure, they could have been warming up in the locker room before coming out, but I'm guessing that it was nervous sweat.  Our guys don't come out of the locker room looking like Secretariat after the Belmont.

[AUCougars]

In the last decade, CNU has won the following away games in hostile territory –

Averett – 10 years in a row!
Ferrum – 9 times
Greensboro – 7 times
NCW – 6 times
Methodist – 6 times
Shenandoah – 4 times

So, unless CNU is the ONLY team to beat the Hornets in Winchester the last decade, then CNU's 6 total losses at home to all of the USASAC teams COMBINED, certainly has defended its home court the best.

AND, if you want to use CNU's ability to get wins in hostile territory as a litmus test for the rest of the conference, then Shenandoah is the SECOND toughest place to play, followed by Methodist and NCW, with Greensboro the FIFTH toughest place to play.

Capt. J, actually, Averett defeated CNU in the Grant Center on Feb. 9, 2001 by an 81-72 final.  CNU was ranked #5 in the nation at the time.  Now I admit, we haven't won since and it had been a long time prior, but it hasn't been 10 years since we beat you at our place.

[captj]

Averett defeated CNU in the Grant Center on Feb. 9, 2001 by an 81-72 final.  CNU was ranked #5 in the nation at the time. 

You're right, my bad.  We've only won 9 of the last 10 in the Grant.