MBB: USA South Conference

[narch]

Hello Narch:   Until Wednesday, I was afraid that Methodist would find Maryville basking in its press clippings but I am pretty sure they will be focused and paying attention Saturday. 

good...if the monarchs win there will be no excuses from scots nation

[cnu85]

cnu fans should EXPECT to win at least one more home game per year than they do on the road

since CNU plays 17 home games and 8 "not at home" games....I would EXPECT a lot more than 1 more home victory.....If CNU wins 2/3 of the road games...about 5, then I should expect 6 home wins......hey Captj, maybe my 12-13 prediction was too optimistic!!!.......this is a tired topic with very flawed reasoning. It's AS BAD as the public/private debate.

[Pat Coleman]

cnu fans should EXPECT to win at least one more home game per year than they do on the road

since CNU plays 17 home games and 8 "not at home" games....I would EXPECT a lot more than 1 more home victory.....

Pretty sure that since this analysis is about conference games that CNU plays the same number of home and road games.

[cnu85]

Pat...sshhhhh.......I was "spinning".

[narch]

this is a tired topic with very flawed reasoning. It's AS BAD as the public/private debate.

i disagree and i don't think it's flawed, if taken for what it is - statistically speaking there is a very CLEAR home court advantage for EVERY team in the conference - EVERY team wins more at home than they do on the road - 5 of the 7 teams in this conference had winning home conference records over the last 5 years while only 2 had a winning road record...that tells me something, even if it doesn't tell me which venue is the "toughest place to play in the conference" - as i analyze and pick games on this site, i always consider the venue...now i (and anyone else who wants to pick the games) have some hard facts to show which teams have played better on the road and at home over the last 3 and 5 years - the public/private debate will never change, but at least the home-court-advantage conversation is about something basketball related

[captj]

a team that wins 2/3 of their road games over the last 5 full seasons (not including this year) is statistically the 2nd best road team in the conference...and one of just 2 teams that win more than 50% of the time on the road - furthermore, there is only a 6 game difference in home and road wins over a 5 year period...that means cnu loses an average of 1.2 more road games than home games per year...to me, that is an acceptable differential for a team that is perceived to have such a strong home court advantage - you've lauded the cnu crowd and the intimidating nature of playing in the freeman center...cnu fans should EXPECT to win at least one more home game per year than they do on the road

here are the records for the last 5 years

team	home rec	win %	away rec	win %	win % diff
su	22-11	.67	10-23	.30	+.37
au	13-20	.39	5-28	.15	+.24
gc	20-13	.61	13-20	.39	+.22
ncw	22-11	.67	16-17	.48	+.19
cnu	28-5	.85	22-11	.67	+.18
fc	12-21	.36	6-27	.18	+.18
mc	27-6	.82	23-10	.70	+.12

You're right.  I'm convinced that against USASAC teams we are pretty good when we invade hostile territory.  The post that I replied to earlier didn't convince me, but this one did.  You're the man, narch!

Now... WHY HAVE WE ONLY WON AN AVERAGE OF ONE GAME A YEAR MORE AT HOME THAN ON THE ROAD?!  WE SHOULD DO BETTER THAN THAT AT HOME!!  

[cnu85]

this is a tired topic with very flawed reasoning. It's AS BAD as the public/private debate.

- statistically speaking there is a very CLEAR home court advantage

But here is where it gets flawed.....or giving you the benefit of the doubt it's where I get confused......suppose a team wins 85% at home and 86% on the road.....does that mean they don't enjoy home court advantage?

[cnu85]

and I thought all this started to quell the claim that Haynes was the toughest place to play.......

[narch]

[But here is where it gets flawed.....or giving you the benefit of the doubt it's where I get confused......suppose a team wins 85% at home and 86% on the road.....does that mean they don't enjoy home court advantage?

in this scenario, home court provides no advantage from a win/loss percentage standpoint...you might be able to detect an advantage by looking at margin of victory, but that is a much more laborious analysis and something i don't care to perform...i'll take a one-point win 8 days a week - and you're right, this did start out as an exercise to prove that hanes is not the toughest place to play...funny how we haven't heard from any of the gc fans re: their claim since then...

[cnufan]

Anyone play tomorrow?? I seem to forget amongst the home/away banter!!

[scottiedoug]

Narch's boys go to Tennessee and see whether Coach Lambert has managed to get the attention of the Scots after they slept through the first half of their game at Sewanee and made it pretty important not to lose to the Monarchs.  And Narch, there won't be any excuses from me.

[cnufan]

Carnegie Mellon falls tonight to Case Western 72-69 for any cnu fans who care. Capts in a big one tomorrow (today now). Need to start the weekend off right with a W at Ferrum.

[narch]

umm...not good...m'ville 91 - mc 51 - WOW 

[captj]

CNU 77
Ferrum 55

After trailing by as much as 11 in the first half, Selden hits a trey at the buzzer to send the Captains into the locker room at halftime down by just two.

Second half all Captains.

As Goose said in the radio broadcast... "a tale of two halves".

[GCman82]

GC 88 NCW 39

Beat Down at Hanes!

Women won by about 50 also.

Roll Pride!!!