MBB: USA South Conference

[scottiedoug]

So is this Moneyball without the money?

[narch]

Hello narch,

If you are going to put this much effort into this the least I can do is the same. 

The analysis is seeking the difference a player makes on the team (impact).  So, it evaluates the team's performance with the player and then does the same thing without the player.  The numbers it provides is the magnitude of the difference based on a 40 minute game (hence, it is a rate difference but instead of using the measure per minute, it is using per 40 minutes).  So, looking at this particular example, with Cherry in the lineup the point differential is .44ppm (17.6pp40).  With Cherry out of the lineup it is -0.29ppm (-11.6pp40).   The difference in these rates is 0.73ppm (29.2pp40).  The difference of the point differential rates with Biberaj in and out of the lineup is 0.4175ppm (16.7pp40). 

doesn't multiplying both factors by 40 equate the production to an 80 minute game, though?

[DMJSports]

narch,

Depends on what you are trying to measure.  If you are determining what the team with the player does in a 40 minute span and what the team does without the player in a 40 minute span and then take the difference to measure delta between the two, you multiply both by 40 minutes.  You are looking at the difference between rates... whether you want to measure rates on a per minute, per 20 min, or per 40 minute span is up to you.  I prefer 40 minute spans so the magnitudes correspond to the length of a game.   

Regards,
Leo Cohen
DMJ Software

[narch]

ah...i get it now...if you play without a guy, you'll not only lose xx points/40 minutes point production, but also xx points/40 minutes point prevention - it took a while, but i get it

do you view it as a flaw that a player who averages, say 9 minutes per game but has the same ratio's as cherry would have the same ppg impact, or do you view that as the point?

either way, it appears that you've got a really cool software program - is there a website where we can view these statistics throughout the season?

[DMJSports]

Hello narch,

Sorry, not sure I understand the production vs prevention statement.  If the analysis says a player is +8ppg, it means that based on the trends from game data this season, the team performs 8 points better in a 40 minute game relative to the competition when the player is in the lineup (for the entire 40 minutes) than if the team where to play without the player (for the entire 40 minutes) - this could mean the team wins by 20 with the player and 12 without or lose by 2 with the player and lose by 10 without - the key point is the differential between playing with and without the player).  If a player is even (0ppg), it means the team performs about the same whether the player is in or out of the lineup (this could mean the team wins by 20, ties or loses by 20, but it will be the same regardless of whether the player plays or not as the team performs about the same with the player in or out of the lineup).  If the player is -8ppg (negative), it means that based on this season's data, the team performs 8 points better in a 40 minute game relative to the competition without the player in the lineup than when the player is on the floor for the 40 minutes.

"do you view it as a flaw that a player who averages, say 9 minutes per game but has the same ratio's as cherry would have the same ppg impact, or do you view that as the point?"
- double edge sword: 1) I don't see it as a flaw because the analysis is suppose to highlight the fact that this player, who only plays for 9 minutes per game, is making a significant impact on the team when he is on the court.  The scenario is that this player must not be doing certain things to catch the coaches eye as a strong contributor, but looking at the actual data, is somehow contributing in a way that is helping the team... maybe not scoring a lot, but the team is playing better with him in the lineup.  On the flip side, you may have a player that scores a lot, but the team performance actually improves when they are not on the floor.  An example of this could be because the player takes bad shots, doesn't pass the ball and teammates end up standing around because the dynamic revolves around a good scorer rather than a team effort.  The focus on the analysis is team performance rather than individual stats.  It highlights individuals who help the team perform better... that's the goal of the analysis.  2) the drawback of analyzing a player who only plays for 8-10 minutes a game is the lack of sample size.   Hence, the analysis shouldn't cause a coach to make that player a 35 minute guy, but to possibly start increasing his playing time slowly and continue to watch the analysis.  If his numbers keep up as he is getting more and more minutes, you got yourself a guy who clearly is improving the performance of your team.  If the numbers start creeping down once the player gets a few more minutes, than you can probably deduce it was special circumstances of your rotation or playing in situations like garbage time which caused his analysis to look so strong.

"is there a website where we can view these statistics throughout the season"
- I don't have a website which makes the numbers available, but am happy to deliver team reports via email for a relatively nominal fee.  It takes me a little less than an hour to put together a team report.  During the season, I would send out team reports at night after each game for coaches who requested it.  Reports were usually for their own teams, but sometimes they requested reports on upcoming opposition.

Regards,
Leo Cohen
DMJ Sports

[narch]

I don't have a website which makes the numbers available, but am happy to deliver team reports via email for a relatively nominal fee.

i think i'm more interested than most fans when it comes to metrics and statistics...and i'm not interested in paying for this type of thing - i do appreciate your bringing this measurement to our attention, though, and hope you'll continue to give us some "freebies" every once in a while

[bballlover]

Neeley returns to Piedmont:http://www.piedmontlions.com/news/2013/3/14/MBB_0314131307.aspx?path=mbball    Good Luck Coach

[hasanova]

Neeley returns to Piedmont    http://www.piedmontlions.com/news/2013/3/14/MBB_0314131307.aspx?path=mbball    Good Luck Coach

Fixed this so you can access the link.  Thanks for posting it.  +1 

[scottiedoug]

I am glad they did not hire a Maryville person.  LaGrange's doing so made them hard to beat.

[Swish3]

I just read where CNU's big man, Nik Biberaj, is transferring to ODU....excuse me while I go throw up!

[marlinpg10]

Yes nik Biberaj is transferring to Old Dominion. Heard he was asked to be a preferred walk-on for the monarchs. Not sure why akid would leave a school where he is the star to go sit on the bench for 2 years but hey some kids just want to say they played division 1

[bballlover]

Piedmont schedule is up:http://www.piedmontlions.com/news/2013/8/6/MBB_0806131939.aspx?path=mbball

[Dixie Fan]

http://www.usasouth.net/sports/mbkb/2013-14/releases/20131016tdbi30


2013-14 USA South Men's Basketball Coaches Preseason Poll
Rank    Institution (1st Place Votes)    Pts.
1.    Maryville (6)    93
2.    Ferrum (2)    85
3.    LaGrange (2)    78
4.    Greensboro    73
5.    Methodist    68
6.    N.C. Wesleyan (1)    67
t-7.    Averett    37
t-7.    Covenant    37
9.    Huntingdon    28
10.    William Peace    25
11.    Piedmont    14

Thoughts???

[mattgrubb]

Why?
The league does not look that strong without CNU.  I do see Murvul returning most everyone but just not battle hardened.  I like Lagrange or Ferrum.  I would probably had
1. LC
2. FC
3. Murvul

But that is just in a preseason poll obviously the end of the year poll probably looks way different

[narch]

http://www.usasouth.net/sports/mbkb/2013-14/releases/20131016tdbi30


2013-14 USA South Men's Basketball Coaches Preseason Poll
Rank    Institution (1st Place Votes)    Pts.
1.    Maryville (6)    93
2.    Ferrum (2)    85
3.    LaGrange (2)    78
4.    Greensboro    73
5.    Methodist    68
6.    N.C. Wesleyan (1)    67
t-7.    Averett    37
t-7.    Covenant    37
9.    Huntingdon    28
10.    William Peace    25
11.    Piedmont    14

Thoughts???

my first thought...PC has fallen off the map...getting fewer votes (probably justified) than a second year program...