MBB: USA South Conference

[CNU85]

Even though I play with numbers all day at work, this stuff is too deep for me. Maybe I come on here to relax a little and the thought of more analysis just doesn't click for me. Keep up the good work. It's always good to see stuff like this....at some point I'll mess with the formula....but for now I'll be my usual sophomoric self ad just say....my point guard is better than yours!! 

[CNU85]

Karma for everyone....It's Christmas!!

[PrideSportBBallGuy]

I found something interesting today.  Its called power %.  It is in a nutshell how well a team scores.  (Which includes FT's etc.)

An explaination follows.

"The team scoring on 58% of its possessions will win 99% of the time (that's an educated guess not based on scores of hundreds of games). The only ways the team with the 53% floor % will win is by making enough three pointers and/or by having several of the 58 opponent's scoring possessions be worth only one point (making only one of two free throws). A typical score for this game would be 116-106. It might be 114-108 or 117-105 [this was used from NBA too, hence why those numbers are high IMO] but any difference smaller than about six points or larger than about fourteen would be very unusual."

(Adding floor%/power % to the power ranking equation makes the .7 point difference from 2nd to 4th go to .24) I also added another part to the power ranking net points/FGA

from http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/

In an example NCWC defeats CNU last year 93-80

CNU Floor % was about 55%
NCWC Floor % was about 49%

Game Stats
CNU was 3-17 from 3pt line
NCWC was 7-18 from 3pt line

CNU was 19-35 FT's (IMO the difference in the game)
NCWC was 28-36 FT's

Narch- Methodist's floor % was higher then GC maybe the reason why GC lost 2 against them.  There was nothing in the box scores that stuck out.  Everything seemed to fit within a flow of a normal game.

[notamensa]

Karma for everyone....It's Christmas!!

if you gave me a +1, then 4 other people took a shot at me. i havent posted a word in over a day and i still manage to ruffle feathers? im starting to understand how hasanova feels.

[kickerdad]

Can someone answer - Is Averett basketball for real again this year or is the success that they are experiencing now from a weak non-conference schedule?

I know they were good last year, but I thought they lost a lot of seniors/starters. As you can tell, I don't follow basketball that much, but I am a Averett fan and it appears they are doing very well right now. But as far as knowing if this is from a weak schedule or if they really are that good, I don't know. I don't see any other Averett folks on the basketball board to ask, so maybe one of the experts on here can fill me in.

[jdubyadubya]

Can someone answer - Is Averett basketball for real again this year or is the success that they are experiencing now from a weak non-conference schedule?

I know they were good last year, but I thought they lost a lot of seniors/starters. As you can tell, I don't follow basketball that much, but I am a Averett fan and it appears they are doing very well right now. But as far as knowing if this is from a weak schedule or if they really are that good, I don't know. I don't see any other Averett folks on the basketball board to ask, so maybe one of the experts on here can fill me in.

Kickerdad - I'm a VWC fan, and Averett beat the #1 team in DIII America. I believe they may be for real!

[CNU85]

Kickerdad....go to the front page of d3hoops and click on top 25..then look at the preaseason poll and then look to see who on that poll AU has beaten......

I think they are scary good this year!

[kickerdad]

85 - wow, this could come down to a repeat of last year Averett/CNU .....This is starting to be a trend...

[kickerdad]

Kickerdad - I'm a VWC fan, and Averett beat the #1 team in DIII America. I believe they may be for real!
[/quote]

Now if the football team can get it together and beat Mount Union (#1 DIII football as of this date) next year, Averett will have some bragging rights.

Yea, Yea, I already hear you guys.............."When donkeys fly" .........but anything is possible, you never know.

OK, so I am a big dreamer......for 58 minutes and a few seconds I thought Averett was going to beat CNU this year too. I am just glad it didn't come down to a kick, cause I would have started smoking all over again in those few seconds.

[averetthoops]

In response to KickerDad's question about Averett being for real, so far its been a fun season.  Will they stay undefeated?  Probably not, but they give a great effort every night.  Coach Allen is a very intense guy but the guys have bought into his style of play.  It is a very uptempo style of play but there will be some nights like last year at Greensboro where you can't buy a basket.  The point guard who is a transfer is a very good player and we have most of our inside guys from last year.  Coach subs frequently so a lot of the players see action.  This has helped this year since a lot of the sophmores saw some time last year as freshman, even if it wasn't significant minutes.

[sludge]

Can someone answer - Is Averett basketball for real again this year or is the success that they are experiencing now from a weak non-conference schedule?

Is that some kind of left-handed whack at the ODAC?  And are you kidding after they beat VWC, which is noticeably hard to do?

Anyway, I'm looking forward to Guilford playing Shenandoah and Averett.  Should be exciting basketball.

[Ralph Turner]

...  Coach subs frequently so a lot of the players see action.  This has helped this year since a lot of the sophmores saw some time last year as freshman, even if it wasn't significant minutes.

You have 10 players with double-digit minutes so that is significant.

That also allows your 20 minutes players to step up the intensity!

[PrideFan1986]

I tell you if both Averett and Guilford are both undefeated I might just have to venture up the road to see it

[Rikki_Tikki_Tavi]

Are there any basketball games in the near future?? This break is killing me!!

[narch]

the monarchs play sunday and monday at the rmc tourney...rmc in round one on sunday and gettysburg or union on monday