BB: OAC: Ohio Athletic Conference

[Dr. Acula]

Mount's defense is letting them down today so far.  5 errors in 4 innings including 3 consecutive sac bunt attempts resulting in no outs thanks to errors on every one of them.  Good news is they're hitting Albright decently well (8 hits in 5 IP).  Bad news is they trail 4-1 thanks to the poor D.

[Dr. Acula]

Right as I type that Jakubik hits a 2-run HR.  4-3 BW in the 6th.  Carlino is pitching pretty well so hopefully he has another couple innings in the tank (not sure of pitch count).

[Dr. Acula]

I don't know what this says about WC athletics, but when I clicked the link to their live stats and just saw 22-0 Wilm lost I didn't even double take or sense surprise really.  It was only a few minutes later that I started wondering how they already finished the game that I went back and saw that was the womens lax score against Mount earlier today, not the baseball score against Berg.  That one is only 10-0.

[Dr. Acula]

Game of the day:  6t. Mount (5-7,  5GB 1st, 2GB Playoffs) @ 4t BW (7-5, 3GB 1st)—Mount Union's strategy of saving their top two arms for today worked out well, and as Dr. A mentioned, they have put themselves right back into a scenario where they have a chance to reach 4th.  Of course, BW saved their top two guys also.  This has huge implications for both teams in the playoff race.  Mount Has to have a sweep here, IMO.  BW has games with Muskingum and Capital remaining, and they could easily sweep those two.  Mount has Wilmington and OTterbein which are winable series for the raiders.  BW getting swept puts them in a precarious position of needing help as they would essentially need Mount to lose again to make the field.  Mount Union fans will also be scoreboard watching to see if Marietta can sweep Northern, which is something they need to have happen.  So Dr. A, as much as it might hurt, you really need to be a Pioneer fan for a day to help your own cause. 

Ha!  It doesn't pain me at all!  I want Mount to do well.  I don't really root against anyone else individually outside of one aforementioned school for non-baseball reasons.  So if Etta winning helps the Raiders then I'm a fan.  For today.  Haha.  I like Brewer.  I liked him enough that when I was picking a college and he was at JCU I let financial aid decide between my top two (Mount, JCU) because I liked both schools that much. 

[EttaFan1]

Unfortunately for Mount, BW takes game one....I think that will probably end Mount's playoff chances for this year. 

Marietta takes game 1 from ONU. Herstine, another gem.  1 hit, 0R in 7 IP.  Marietta had a streak of 27.2 consecutive scoreless innings broken up by an unearned run in the 9th inning on an error, a single, A WP and a Sac Fly. 

[Spence]

Mount Union eschews the use of the placekicker and wins 16-14 in the second game.

Anyone there? Anyone that can explain Gillisee's caught stealing in the 9th?

[motorman]

After yesterday, I think we are looking at the top 4 teams being the OAC tournament field. Hope everyone has a nice Easter weekend as the only OAC team in action today is beaten down Wilmington. As the OAC team least able to handle it, they play their 3rd DH in 3 days today vs UC-Clermont. Hope they get a W to head into the holiday.

[Spence]

Likely. BW has tiebreak over most everyone via their win over Marietta. Ohio Northern still has its chance to trump, but it would take 2 wins over Heidelberg.

Hard to see BW finishing below a tie for 4th.

[motorman]

Berg and Marietta both clinched spots in the tournament with the sweeps on Friday. Berg is 5 games up on 5th place ONU with 4 to play and Marietta is 4 up but owns the tiebreaker with their sweep of ONU on Friday.

[EttaFan1]

I think Motorman is correct when he says we likely have our 4 playoff spots filled with 'Berg, Marietta, JCU, and BW.  ONU has a small chance.  The rest are likely out of the race. 

Here is a look.

1.  Berg, 1 game lead on Marietta.  Games remaining: Otterbein and @ONU.  Basically Berg is playing to host.  They control their own destiny, and win one more game than Marietta in the next four and the OAC tournament will be in Tiffin.  A split is possible in either of these series. 

2.  Marietta, 1 game back.  Games remaining:  JCU and @ @Wilmington.  This is a huge saturday for Marietta as they host the streaks.  I like the Pios chances in any games with Byers and Herstine getting the start, which should be what happens on Saturday.  They have to win 4 and hope for a berg split somewhere along the way.

3.  JCU, 2 games behind Berg.  Games remaining: @Mar and Muskingum.  JCU is the one team which could be in trouble if they play poorly down the stretch.  Lose 3 of 4 and they could find themselves in a very precarious spot (11-7), where Northern could catch them, More on that later.  Win 2 of 4 and they are in.

4.  BW, 4 games behind Berg.  Games remaining:  @Mukingum and Capital.  Win 4 and they are in.  The only real danger for them is Muskingum, IMO.  3-1 puts them at 11-7 and makes things interesting, but would likely drop the secondary tie breaker because ONU was swept by Marietta (more on that in a minute too).

5.  ONU, 5 games behind Berg, 1 game out of the tournament.  Games remaining:  @Cap and Berg.  To have a realistic chance at #4, they have to go 4-0.  Cap is sweepable, Berg is a very tall order.

So some scenarios. 

Marietta and Berg.  Split the regular season. 
Scenario 1.  MAR goes 4-0, Berg 3-1.  Marietta would win the tiebreaker as a result of the Pioneers sweep of either ONU or Otterbein, as long as whomever defeats Heidelberg finishes ahead of Muskingum.  MAR and Berg would both be 2-0 against JCU, 1-1 against BW.  Marietta is 2-0 against Otterbein and ONU.  If it comes down to Muskingum, Berg wins the tiebreaker by virtue of being 2-0 over the fish and Marietta is 1-1. 
Scenario 2.  MAR goes 3-1 and Berg goes 2-2.  Assuming Marietta's loss would be to JCU, JCU is likely to finish higher than both Otterbein and ONU, so Berg would win the tiebreaker.

JCU.  They can miss the tournament this way:
JCU goes 1-3 in their next 4 (Swept by Marietta and split with Muskingum) and finishes 11-7, this is not out of the question.  Let's just say ONU wins out (not likely, but let's just say) to finish 11-7.  JCU and ONU split.  SO we go top down, in this instance, Marietta would likely finish 1st, and both are 0-2 vs. Marietta.  'Berg would likely finish 2nd.  ONU would be 2-0 against Berg, JCU is 0-2.  ONU would hold the tie breaker over JCU.   

BW misses out if ONU wins out and BW loses twice. 

ONU makes the field if they go 4-0 and get some help along the way. 

The next two weeks are going to be fairly interesting.   

[EttaFan1]

According to their website Marietta's midweek game with Frostburg State is now a double header instead of a single game.  Marietta still needs two make up games to get all of their games in the regular season.

[motorman]

Kudos to ONU for showing Valpo that just because they got scholarships doesn't they are better than players at D3 schools.

[Pat Coleman]

When I was an SID at Catholic and shortly thereafter, they beat Mount St. Mary's (the D-I school in Maryland) and Georgetown. It isn't hard for an average D-III to beat a low D-I program. Just takes the right pitcher.

[motorman]

I know Pat, but it is nice to see it be acknowledged when it happens.

Yesterday at Case, Berg had its Achilles heel flare up. D must get better to get through regional. Can't hit your way out of errors against quality opponents. What should have been a 1-0 win became a 2-1 loss due to 2 unearned runs.

[EttaFan1]

This weekends games....

Top matchup:  JCU @ Marietta.  Marietta has to win two to keep pace.  JCU should be in the tournament even if they get swept.  Marietta's pitching rotation is back on schedule, and should throw 1 and 2 on Saturday. 

Key Matchup 1: Ott @ Berg.  Berg needs to avoid a loss in their last 4 to ensure the hosting of the tournament.  Ott is likely out of the race at this point.  It could still be a little tricky.

Key Matchup 2: BW @ Muskingum.  Muskingum is probably out, BW needs to stay ahead of ONU.  Cap looms largely for the jackets next week 

Key Matchup 3:  ONU @ Cap.  ONU pretty much needs to win 4 games in the league if they are going to make the field.  The next two are unlikely for them (vs Berg).  But when you have one of the doormats in front of you, you need to take care of business.

The other matchup.  Wilmington @ Mount.  I guess if you want a pair of wins on Senior day, you know who to call.  I'm sure there is some odd way this could impact tournament race, but I don't know if I have the time or desire to try and figure it out.