BB: OAC: Ohio Athletic Conference

[Dr. Acula]

Mount heads into their DH with Wilmington with a team BA of .355.  This is significant because I believe the school record that was set in 99 (?) was .356.  With the Quakers up next this record could be in jeopardy.  Never thought I'd see that with the bats they use these days.  Obviously back in the glory days of what the NCAA deemed to be dangerous bats that .356 was littered with gap shots, home runs and probably a couple near death experiences for pitchers/corner infielders.

[Dr. Acula]

Things just got interesting with Otterbein's win at Berg in the opener.   Etta beats JCU in their opener to pull even.

Mount drums Wilm 17-1 in game 1.  20 hits in 41 AB should boost that team average.

[Spence]

OAC standings as of 4:25 eastern time (assuming Mount is done battering Wilmington)

Team                  OAC  OAC DHs remaining
Marietta   12-3      vs. JCU, at WILM
Heidelberg         12-3      vs. OTT, at ONU
John Carroll   10-5      at MAR, vs. MUSK
BaldwinWallace   9-6      at MUSK, vs. CAP
Ohio Northern   8-7      at CAP, vs. HEID
Mount Union     7-8      vs. WILM, at OTT
Otterbein         7-8      at HEID, vs. MTU
Muskingum         6-9      vs. BW, at JCU
Capital           2-13      vs. ONU, at BW
Wilmington       2-13      at MTU, vs. MAR

Marietta not playing like they want to stay on top very long in Game 2 though. Down 2-0 and just went K, pop up, pop up with a runner on third and 0 outs.

EDIT to add: I suppose Otterbein should be ahead of Mount Union with the win over Heidelberg, the same reason Marietta is listed above Heidelberg (MC swept Otterbein; MC's extra loss was to Muskingum).

B-W left it late to beat Muskingum. If they had lost, that would have really made it interesting.

[EttaFan1]

What a mess!

Tie for first, tie for fourth and believe it or not the tie between muskingum and otterbein is very critical.

In simple terms, of Marietta and berg remain tied, the musky cardinal position in the standings could be the tiebreaker!

Going to be a fun weekend next week. I'll look at the tie break scenarios on Monday.

[Spence]

OAC standings (a bit different way)
Team                  OAC  OAC DHs remaining
Marietta   13-3      at WILM
Heidelberg         13-3      at ONU
John Carroll   10-6      vs. MUSK
BaldwinWallace   9-7      vs. CAP
Ohio Northern   9-7      vs. HEID
Mount Union     8-8      at OTT
Otterbein         7-9      vs. MTU
Muskingum         7-9      at JCU
Capital           2-14      at BW
Wilmington       2-14      vs. MAR

My question is how does the OTT-MUSK tie get resolved if it comes down to it. One beat Berg, the other beat Marietta, but they're tied and to break the tie, the OTT-MUSK tie has to be broken and oh I've gone crosseyed.

[motorman]

Saw that myself Spence, it's an infinite loop.

Hopefully, between Musky and Ott, they aren't tied after Sat. and we don't have to find out how they resolve this.

[Spence]

My guess would be they skip the 1st place tie and it goes to record against 3rd and so on to break the Muskingum/Otterbein tie, and then back up to break the first place tie. Seems like the only way it could be done.

Hopefully ONU just takes a game and makes it academic.

[motorman]

Hopefully Berg wins 2 and Otterbein gets swept while Musky wins 1 and that makes it academic. Berg wins tiebreaker then. Don't really care where the tournament gets played, both teams are declared co-champions in case of a tie and that seems fitting. Tiebreaker only determines who hosts the tournament.

[Spence]

Interesting. I definitely care where the tournament is played. I always want the best site for the fans, players, staff and league officials. And we all know where that is.

[motorman]

You aren't going to be there so what do you care? Like I said, home field advantage in baseball is overblown. Only real advantage is in getting to bat last. Why don't we just play every game at Marietta so I can have home "fans" invading my space and not paying attention to the game. I just was thrilled the last time I was there to hear a bunch of 60 year olds talking about their golf and tennis games.

[Spence]

I already told you why I care. It's the best for everyone involved. Best facility, best amenities, best location, usually best weather, best event staff. No, I'm not going to be there, I wish I was.

I'm impressed by any 60 year old that has a tennis game to talk about. I'll be happy to be able to play a game of tennis worth talking about at that age. But part of the charm of baseball as entertainment is that you can go and relax and socialize and watch a game. It doesn't really require 100% attention to know what's going on, which is great for the way young and old alike live their lives today.

[Spence]

Going into the last series...some league play only stats for the most likely contenders for top 4 spots.

                     Runs   RA     +/-     per game
Marietta         118     52     66     7.4-3.25
Heidelberg     149     89     60      9.3-5.6   
John Carroll     90     61      29     5.6-3.8
BW                 134     88     46     8.3-5.5
ONU                 84     61      23     5.25-3.8
Mount Union  135     119    16     8.4-7.4 

[EttaFan1]

OK.... So there are some critical tie break scenarios heading into this weekend.  One to determine who hosts, the next to determine who makes the field.  And then one down the list which will impact the top spot.  Here they are near as I can tell.

The race for first:

Marietta plays wilmington, and two wins are quite likely, Berg plays at Ohio Northern, so this is a little more difficult situation.  At worst, either will finish as the second seed.

First and easiest thing to sort out—Because both teams are tied, if one wins more games than the other...then they will be outright champs and host the tournament. 

If they finish Saturday tied for first—
Scenario 1.  Both teams go 2-0 on Saturday.  Then it comes down to who finishes higher between Otterbein and Muskingum.  MAR and Berg are 1-1 against each other, 2-0 against JCU, 1-1 against BW, 2-0 against ONU, 2-0 against Mount Union.  Marietta is 1-1 vs Muskingum, and Berg is 1-1 against Otterbein. 
Scenario 2. Both teams go 1-1 on Saturday.  Marietta would win the tie breaker due to their 2-0 record against ONU who would finish higher than either Otterbein or Muskigum. 
Scenario 3.  Both teams go 0-2 on Saturday.  WHile Marietta should be disqualified for losing to Wilmington, they would still win the tiebreaker because of their record against ONU.


The race for fourth: 
Scenario 1.  Three way tie for fourth between Northern, BW, and Mount Union— at 10-8.  All three teams split with each other.  BW, however will win the tiebreaker due to their split with Marietta where ONU and Mount dropped two games to the Pioneers.  (Marietta would be in first in this scenario as it requires an Ohio Northern win over Heidelberg).

Scenario 2.  BW and Ohio Northern end the season tied—BW and ONU split their season series.  BW has the tiebreaker advantage over Northern because of their split with Marietta and Berg (if both BW and Berg go 0-2 on Saturday). 

Scenario 3.  ONU and Mount Union end the season tied at 10-8— and BW falls to 9-9.  ONU wins the tiebreaker by virtue of their split with JCU, as the streaks swept the Raiders.

Scenario 4.  Mount and BW end the season tied at 10-8  BW wins the tiebreaker because they split with both Marietta and Heidelberg.  Mount was swept. 

So to translate, this is what needs to happen for each.

BW:  Win at least one, and win at least as many as ONU.  They play capital, who is not very good.
ONU:  Win at least one, and hope BW loses one more than they do.  ONU plays Berg.  A split isn't out of the question—although it will be a difficult task, but a sweep would be unlikely IMO.
Mount Union—Must beat Otterbein twice, and HOPE both BW and Northern lose twice.  Capital sweeping BW is very unlikely IMO. 

As was mentioned earlier, the race to host comes down to the position of both Muskingum and Otterbein. 

Otterbein hosts Mount Union, and Muskingum plays at John Carroll.  If Marietta and Heidelberg remain tied after next weekend, here are the scenarios to sort this out. 

Scenario 1, both teams go 2-0.  Muskingum wins the tiebreaker due to their sweep of JCU, Otterbein was 1-1.
Scenario 2, Both teams go 1-1. Muskingum has the advantage because of their split with BW (both split with ONU, so it won't matter).
Scenario 3.  Both teams go 0-2.  Otterbein then has the advantage becaue they split with JCU and Muskingum wil have been swept. 

So if you are a Marietta fan, you are hoping for the following:  1.Sweep Wilimington.  2. A Heidelberg loss to ONU.  3.  If 2 doesn't happen, a JCU sweep of Muskingum, or Otterbein winning one more game against Mount Union than Muskingum wins against JCU. 

If you are a Heidelberg fan, you are hoping for the following:  1.  Sweep Northern.  2.  A Marietta loss to Wilmington.  3.  IF two doesn't happen, Muskingum to go 2-0 or at worst 1-1 against JCU. 

Fun stuff!

So now you know who you should be rooting for (in addition to your own team!)

[Spence]

So it seems like the odds would significantly favor Marietta, though this is all speculation. This is one case where Massey's info might actually have some use if it's up to date, because his site has predictive values for future games and since all the games are teams from the same region and conference, any biases related to handling differing regional schedules affect everyone roughly the same (though BW did play a good number of non D-III games).

The odds of Marietta dropping even 1 game to Wilmington are probably 5% or less.

I would guess a probability of Heidelberg beat ONU in a given game in Ada is probably on the order of 65-70%. Northern isn't a bad team at all and they're at home with good pitching. Halve that for a sweep to get 32-35% chance of ONU dropping 2. I think I'm being generous there compared to what Masseyratings or some such might come up with. So better than 50-50 chance that there's not even tie for first to be broken...

And with regard to the tiebreak, Muskingum winning at JCU is a taller order than Otterbein beating Mount Union at home. Ott-MTU is probably close to a 50-50 proposition; JCU has been very good at home and is probably closer to 70-75% per game, with the second game being higher than the first.

So chance of a sweep in OTT-MTU would be 25% either way, JCU has 35-40% chance of getting a sweep against Muskingum. Not really inclined to make a matrix of each possible outcome and its probability (it's not straightforward because both teams sweeping yields a different outcome than matching 0-2 and 1-1 results), but the point should be evident. Rough guess, probably about 65ish% chance that Marietta hosts the tournament.

[EttaFan1]

Matchup wise, JCU would have to be a fairly strong favorite against Muskingum.  Musky simply doesn't hit very well, and JCU has a strong pitching staff.  JCU is capable a the plate, but Musky's pitching is not the highest quality in OAC play.  To top that off, a team like JCU has to be thinking about Post season beyond the OAC tourney.  A pool C bid is possible, but after last week's showing, they can ill afford to lose to Muskingum and keep those hopes alive. 

I think Berg and Northern is a very interesting matchup, but I still think ONU is a significant underdog.  ONU's top two arms are solid.  Berg can swing it, a lot.  Berg's pitching is also good, and Northern isn't a particularly good hitting team.   I'd say even a split is a tall order for the Polar Bears.  There is one interesting thing about this matchup.  'Berg's team ERA in conference play is a very respectable 3.65.  However, they allow 5.60 total runs per nine innings pitched.  Defense has been a an issue for 'Berg all year including conference play.  Can they keep the mistakes to a minimum, and more importantly, can they limit the damage when they do make mistakes?  This is why I think Northern has a puncher's chance for a split in this series.  Otherwise the matchups favor Heidelberg.     


Mount and Ott is a strange matchup.  I have trouble looking at this and picking a sweep either way.  Mount does have something on the line, though they need a lot of help to make it happen. 

BW should handle Cap easily. 

Wilmington is just bad.  Marietta wins two easily.