BB: OAC: Ohio Athletic Conference

motorman · April 18, 2015, 01:45:21 PM

Thought ONU vs Marietta would be a good match up but Eltzroth getting bombed. Marietta up 7-0 in the 3rd.

Dr. Acula · April 18, 2015, 03:47:31 PM

BW comes back with 2 in the 8th and 1 in the 9th to beat Mount 7-6. Can't keep losing games like this if you want any shot at the top 4.

Dr. Acula · April 18, 2015, 05:04:17 PM

JCU drove to Columbus to play Cap. Games were PPD to tomorrow. It's 75 and sunny here. Problem is it turns out it's tough to play when no umps have been assigned to the game. What a joke. Now they're playing tomorrow at JCU instead.

motorman · April 19, 2015, 02:45:44 PM

JCU wins 1st game over Cap 3-2.

Dr. Acula · April 20, 2015, 11:57:54 AM

One thing that shouldn't go without mention from the weekend is Hendrixson's absolutely spectacular start for the Berg against Wilm. He took a perfect game into the 8th before giving up a single and ending up with a line of 8 IP, 1 H, 10 K, 0 BB. Hendrixson is making a strong case for the Tekulve Award. I would say he and Doring are the best bets as of today.

JCU ended up sweeping Cap to remain a game back of Berg, but by virtue of their sweep of JCU I guess Berg is effectively 2 games up.

mideastfan2 · April 21, 2015, 01:56:09 PM

fight to the finish for the last few spots in the OAC tournament....

(11-3) HEID - (@OTT, vsONU)
(10-4) JCU - (vsMAR, @MUSK)
(9-5) ONU - (vsCAP, @HEID)
(9-5) OTT - (vsHEID, @MOUNT)
(9-5) MAR - (@JCU, vsWILM)
(8-6) B-W - (vs MUSK, @CAP)
(6-8) MOUNT
(4-10) CAP
(4-10) MUSK
(0-14) WILM

If Heidelberg is going to host the tournament, they are going to earn it...a tough final 2 series. B-W has a great shot to win out, and make a push for one of the four spots.

Dr. Acula · April 21, 2015, 05:06:06 PM

It certainly looks like there's a good chance there's going to be a traffic jam around that 12-6 mark.

Dr. Acula · April 26, 2015, 03:27:39 PM

Mount lost yesterday. At home. To Hiram. They committed 5 errors leading to 8 unearned runs in a 9-7 loss. Their DH with Wilm was PPD to Monday. I looked and Wilm is hitting .162 as a team in OAC play. Hopefully that will allow Toma to get his 8th win. He's been one of the few bright spots this season.

motorman · April 26, 2015, 03:53:12 PM

Berg just closed out a 9-6 win in the first game at Otterbein. One more win guarantees the OAC Tournament won't be in Marietta this year.

motorman · April 26, 2015, 08:04:08 PM

Heidelberg clinched a tie for the OAC championship with an 18-3 victory in the nightcap over Otterbein. Think the tournament will either be in Tiffin with at least a split vs ONU or in Ada if they sweep Berg next week, not sure who wins a 3 way tie.

EttaFan1 · April 27, 2015, 09:28:10 AM

Tounament scenarios as I understand them.

For top seed.

Berg clinches top seed wit a win against ONU on Saturday.

If ONU sweeps (assuming JCU also sweeps), that would force a thee way tie. JCU would still be out. According to page 5 of the handbook http://www.oac.org/information/Handbook/Sports_Guideline/BASEBALL_-updated_-10-22-14-.pdf.

ONU would be 3-1 in those four games,
Berg would be 2-2 in those four games,
and JCU would be 1-3 in those four games.

So an ONU sweep means ONU is the top seed, Berg, 2, and JCU the third.

The other spots....

We will assume for a moment that JCU will sweep Muskingum (in New Concord), Marietta will sweep Wilmington (in Marietta), and BW will sweep Capital (in bexley).

How does the ONU vs Berg Series impact the playoff picture?

ONU sweeps Berg (see above)

1. ONU 13-5
2. Berg 13-5
3. JCU 13-5
4. MAR 12-6
4. BW. 12-6

In this situation, Marietta wins the two team tiebreaker with BW by virtue of Marietta's split against Berg, and Berg's sweeping BW. Both Marietta and BW split with Northern.

ONU and Berg Split.

1. Berg 14-4
2. JCU 13-5
3. MAR 12-6
3. ONU 12-6
3. BW 12-6

Marietta, ONU and BW all split with each other, so they are all 2-2 in the scenario mentioned in item 3 on page 5 of the handbook.

So the next tiebreaker is run differential in OAC games (with a max of 7 runs considered). Through the games played as of Sunday, the average run differential for the three tied teams is as follows:

1. Marietta 2.69
2. ONU 1.5
3. BW 1.0

So the tournament would likely be 1. Berg vs 4. ONU, 2. JCU vs. 3. Mar.

By the way, the score differential margin is RAZOR thin, especially between ONU and BW. The results from this weekend will have a significant impact on this metric between BW and ONU.

Berg sweeps ONU

1. Berg 15-3
2. JCU 13-5
3. MAR 12-6
3. BW 12-6

5. ONU 11-7

As Mentioned before, according to item 2, Marietta wins the tie breaker with BW.

Now if JCU gacks one against Muskingum and BW and Marietta both win their two this weekend....

IF ONU wins 1, it forces a four way tie for 2nd. BW, MAR, JCU, and ONU all split with each other and would be 3-3 in the four team pool. Run differentials look like this (so far).

MAR 2.69
JCU 1.59
ONU 1.5
BW 1.0

SO the seeding then becomes...

1. Berg vs. 4 ONU, 2. MAR vs. 3. JCU 5. BW

if ONU sweeps Berg, it goes like this...

1. ONU vs. 4 JCU, 2. Berg vs. 3. MAR.

If Berg sweeps ONU, it goes like this:

1. Berg, 2. MAR, 3. JCU, 4. BW.

If EITHER BW or MAR split this weekend....

If BW splits, they HAVE to hope for a BERG sweep over ONU on Saturday....

BW would have the two team tie breaker over ONU, by virtue of BW's sweep of Mount (ONU Split).

If MAR splits, they have to hope either BW also splits or Berg sweeps ONU.

MAR would have the two team tie breaker over ONU, by virtue of MAR's split with Berg. Marietta has the two team tie breaker over BW.

It is all as clear as mud right....

So here is what you are cheering for if you are fan of one of these five teams....

1. Berg. Win one and host. It is that simple, You are in the tournament no matter what.
2. ONU. Don't get swept. Being swept is all kinds of bad and it sends you home.
3. JCU. Win two and keep your seed higher. You can't claim the top spot, so you are playing for a seed.
4. MAR. Win two and you are in the tournament....To be sure, win big over a bad Wilmington squad.
5. BW Win two, run it up if you can, and hope for some help from Heidelberg (at least one win, preferably two)

The run differential difference between BW and ONU is razor thin right now, the scores from the weekend's games can have an impact on the outcome.

Disclaimer: This is computed based on how I interpret the handbook (linked above). It is not official, and it might be incorrect. There are probably some unlikely scenarios not considered (like Wilmington sweeping Marietta for example). IN any event, the playoff chase is a hot mess.

mideastfan2 · April 27, 2015, 10:42:32 AM

^^^^. Great job on the breakdown!! +1

It's been quite awhile since the 4 tourney spots were so up for grabs on thea
Last weekend; should be fun!

EttaFan1 · April 27, 2015, 10:56:34 AM

ONU is in a really tough spot, IMO. Even if they split, they could end up being eliminated from the conference tournament based on run differential. So if they lose one, hope that it is a 1 run game, and then win by a bigger number. If they lose by one and win by 7+, BW could still catch them. Best case scenario for Northern is to win two. It is the only way they guarantee themselves a spot.

Dr. Acula · April 27, 2015, 03:20:24 PM

Wow, great work EttaFan1. +k for sure

Mount holds on for dear life and wins game 1 over Wilm 3-2. Quakers had the bases loaded with 1 out down 3-1 in the 9th, but Mount got a fly out and strikeout to seal the win. Toma picked up his 8th win going 8 strong innings allowing one run. He is quietly putting together a really strong season as he now sits at 8-1 with an ERA right around 3.00.

motorman · April 27, 2015, 06:54:26 PM

Heidelberg lost to a mediocre Albion from the MIAA 8-7 today. This team is a lot like Marietta from last year. They may win the regular season title, but with only 2 pitchers I don't see how they manage to win the tournament or go very far at regionals if they get that far. If their 2 dependable pitchers don't throw complete games, even their starts will be difficult to come away with good results.