BB: OAC: Ohio Athletic Conference

[EttaFan1]

I predicted 5 sweeps for the mid week games. Unfortunately I only guessed four of the five winners.....

THe Weekend Matchups:

Ohio Northern (2-5, 8-16) @ Mount Union (5-3, 19-8)
JCU (3-5, 10-13)  @ Otterbein (3-5, 16-12)
Capital (1-6, 12-13) @ Muskingum (5-3, 12-13)
BW (5-3, 21-6) @ Wilmington (3-5, 6-15)
'Berg (5-3, 16-12) @ Marietta (7-1, 20-4)

The four teams which stand at 5-3 have work to do to stay in the hunt. 

Northern gives teams fits, but as long as they continue to falter defensively, they will have trouble winning games. Mount hits the ball really well.  I look for the Raiders to win two here.  (They really need to win two at least, and I think they will).

Otterbein can help their cause and make a late push for the playoffs or they can fold like a cheap tent and sit back and watch.  If anyone has a "must win 2" series this weekend it is the Cardinals.  A split hurts, getting swept would all but kill their playoff hopes and Marietta goes to Westerville on Tuesday.

Capital and Muskingum may be the most competitve matchup of the weekend.  Muskingum probably has more pitching than Cap does, but I look for a split in this series.

BW gets a chance to pad thei record against the leagues worst team.  BW is really hitting it well and Wilmington's pitching is suspect.  (Calling it suspect is like saying an elephant is a large land animal).  BW takes two.

'Berg is an interesting matchup for Marietta.  This has been as good a rivalry in the conference as any over the past several years.  While there is a lot of mutual respect, I don't think you will find a lot of warm and fuzzy feelings between the two (The on field rhubarb between Coach Palm and Coach Brewer during the Mideast Regional las year was a prime example of the intensity between these two teams).  Marietta has Brian Gasser and probably Mike Mahaffey in this one (Blaski could be availalbe for a couple of innings).  I don't know much about 'Berg's pitching staff, but outside of Minteer who threw on Wednesday, the numbers are not great.  I think Marietta takes two, but they will be close hard fought wins. 

This is the weekend where the playoff race really takes shape. 

At the end of the weekend, I predict the order going to Tuesday's midweek games will be...

1.  Marietta
2T. Mount Union
2T. BW
4. Muskingum
5T. 'Berg
5T. Otterbein

[Dr. Acula]

Tomorrow's games:

ONU (2-5) @ Mount Union (5-3)  Split.  I predicted a split w/ JCU and they swept.  I'm superstitious.  Plus ONU is decent and Price will be pitching.  It's going to be Price vs. Smith probably so I wouldn't say ONU has any advantage there, but with Price it gives them a good chance at least.
JCU (3-5) @ Otterbein (3-5)  Split.  Without Reuter pitching I think Ott is very average.  I've said that before and I still think it.  Without Spagna pitching JCU is very average also.  2 avg teams?  Split.
Cap (1-6) @ Musky (5-3)  Musky sweeps.  Cap struggled mightily at the plate yesterday.  Havens and Scott are both good, but still.  Throw in the lack of depth on the Crusader staff and I have to go sweep.  That being said, this smells like one of those splits that jumps up and bites a 2nd tier team like Musky. 
BW (5-3) @ Wilm (3-5)  BW sweeps.  They should.  But this may turn out to be "how many times are you going to put your hand on the stove?" if they don't.  Wilm has been making some noise lately.  Just think BW is a tick better than JCU and Ott.
Berg (5-3) @ Etta (7-1)  Etta sweeps.  I just don't think the Berg can score enough runs to take one.  Of course, I didn't think MUC could either and I was happily wrong on that.  But Etta's pitching has been so good across the board it just seems very unlikely.

[forheavendial4999]

I feel a lot better about the Heidelberg games with Gasser being available. Clutch work by the bats there.

I assume it'll be Thomas and Fruhwirth in some form or fashion for Heidelberg. Thomas has thrown well in games in the past, but had a couple rough gos this season. They play MC, B-W and Mount in the next 3 doubleheaders.

As for the season, you have to favor Mount Union and Muskingum to make the tournament simply because they've already played Marietta. Mount has a win over Marietta as well meaning they'd win any secondary tiebreaker as it stands now (i.e. that isn't broken by a sweep). Mount has only one road series left and it's Capital, so I'd say they sit pretty strong right now.

The 5-loss teams need splits at worst to stay in the running. JCU-Ott is the only series between two 5-loss teams.

[EttaFan1]

Fruwirth:  4-2 , 4.40 ERA, WHIP of 1.37, only 9 walks in 43 innings pitched this year.  6 starts on the season.  Opponents BA .274
Thomas:  2-3, 5.45 ERA, WHIP of 1.97, 19 Walks in 36.1 innings pitched this year.  6 starts on the season.  Opponents BA .338.

It is worth noting that Thomas pitched in the regional championship game last year against Marietta and threw 6 innings, allowed 4 hits, 2 runs (1 earned).  He was in trouble early giving up a first inning run and loading the bases before getting back to back strike outs.  From there he settled in nicely and pitched very well over the next five innings.  He could be a tough matchup for Marietta.

for Marietta:

Gasser:  5-1, 2.03 ERA,  WHIP of .975.  15 Walks in 40 innings pitched.  7 starts on the season.  Oppnents batting average:  .170
Mahaffey:  4-1, 3.11 ERA, WHIP of 1.11.  11 Walks in 37.2 Innings pitched.  6 Starts on the season.  Opponents batting average: .208.

Also worth noting, Gasser faced 'Berg twice last season and allowed 1 run in 13 innings total. 

Certainly by the numbers, the pitching matchup favors Marietta.

'Berg is hitting .303 as a team, OBP of .398 and a Slugging pct of .416
Marietta is hitting .305 as a team, OBP of .384, and a slugging pct of .392.

'Berg is still very dangerous offensively.

The thing which isn't very 'berg-like is their fielding percentage in 2012.  This year their fielding pct is .954 (compared to .974 in 2011 and .970 in 2010)

Marietta is fielding at .976 this year. 

There is a lot of pressure on both teams to play clean defensively in this one as they can make you pay dearly for giving them extra outs.  Both teams know each other very well (they played 12 or 13 games against each other the past two seasons) and will be well prepared.  Both teams will be amped up to play each other as well.

I'm looking forward to a good twinbill tomorrow!

[joelmama]

I look for the Raiders to win two here.  (They really need to win two at least, and I think they will).

Win two at least?  Is it possible for them to win more than two?

[EttaFan1]

Nope.  Sorry for the nonsensical phrasology. 

[joelmama]

No apology needed it was a just a little funny to read. <G>

[EttaFan1]

Surprisingly they played two full games today at Marietta. Pioneers take two from 'Berg. The firs game came down to a bad hop error on the 2b that hit the fielder and rolled all the way to the fence. Three runs scored on that play. Game two was over after the first inning as Marietta sent 12 batters to the plate.

Game 1 5-3, game 2 13-2

[EttaFan1]

Five sweeps for the weekend series it would appear.

JCU sweeps Ott
BW sweeps Wilmington
Mount sweeps northern
Muskingum sweeps cap.

I would guess Otterbein is all but eliminated from the playoff race.  If they are swept by Marietta on Tuesday it's probably over for them.

'berg has some "must win" pressure on them on Tuesday when they play bw. They are two games behind for the fourth spot and the jackets are in frOnt of them. Getting swept by muskingum didn't help their cause from a tie breaker point of view either.

Mount union gets capital and should be able to keep pace.

Muskingum Gets John Carroll who is short one game but could be making a push. There is some pressure on the muskies to keep pace with the pack.

Gonna be a fun race to the finish Line.

[forheavendial4999]

This weekend certainly cleared up a lot.

Marietta (9-1) -- Very hard to see anyone else hosting the OAC tournament. Getting swept by Baldwin-Wallace is the most straightforward way someone other than Marietta could win the league.

Mount Union (7-3)
SWEEPS -- John Carroll
SPLITS -- Marietta, Baldwin-Wallace
GOT SWEPT -- NONE
YET TO PLAY -- vs. Heidelberg, vs. Muskingum
PROGNOSIS: Hard to see them missing out. Both contending series left are at home, they have the only win over Marietta and no one has a tiebreak on them right now. A Heidelberg sweep is the only way I can see Mount missing out.

Muskingum (7-3)
SWEEPS -- Heidelberg
SPLITS -- Baldwin-Wallace
GOT SWEPT -- Marietta
YET TO PLAY -- at John Carroll, at Mount Union
PROGNOSIS: Could all but clinch a berth with a sweep this week at JCU. Having tiebreaks over the 5th and 6th place teams and a 9-3 record seems a nearly insurmountable position. Season ending series against Mount could determine who wears white in a Thursday rematch in Marietta.

Baldwin-Wallace (7-3)
SWEEPS -- NONE
SPLITS -- Mount Union, Muskingum, John Carroll
GOT SWEPT -- NONE
YET TO PLAY -- vs. Marietta, at Heidelberg
PROGNOSIS: The only 3 loss team that hasn't played Marietta yet, and so one must figure the most vulnerable. Facing a trip to Peaceful Valley is no picnic either. Still a lot of work to do for the 'Jackets.

John Carroll (5-5)
SWEEPS -- NONE
SPLITS -- Baldwin-Wallace
GOT SWEPT -- Mount Union
YET TO PLAY -- at Marietta, at Heidelberg, vs. Muskingum
PROGNOSIS: Still having three DHs against contenders could be a blessing or a curse. With a trip to Marietta still to come, curse seems more likely.

Heidelberg (5-5)
SWEEPS -- NONE
SPLITS -- NONE
GOT SWEPT -- Marietta, Muskingum
YET TO PLAY -- at Mount Union, vs. Baldwin-Wallace, vs. John Carroll
PROGNOSIS: Very little impressing about this resume so far. Two key DHs in the next week will likely determine whether Heidelberg has any shot. IMO Heidelberg must have a sweep in one of them.

[Dr. Acula]

Mount has positioned themselves well now.  7-3 and they still have Cap and Wilm to go.  They need to avoid a total implosion, but I am extremely satisfied sitting at 7-3 right now.  Very solid effort thus far.  Got a less than stellar effort from Smith today, but they just bludgeoned ONU into submission instead.  Seems like these kids just fight every game and that's all you can ask.  They end up having to use Horning to relieve Smith so Bekelsky makes just his 2nd start of the season in game 2.  They come right out and put up runs to ease some pressure right away.  Just love the way they pick each other up.

[EttaFan1]

If I had to pick based on the quality information provided by forheavanandevial, I would predict the following:

Top seed. Marietta. Offense is coming around and the pitching and defense is very good. BW will be their biggest challenge. However with the way the schedule plays out with only one more midweek league matchup, it's doses of Blaski and Gasser every Saturday.

2 seed: Mount Union. They hit very well and have had good pitching at times. Their schedule lines up nicely. Get through 'Berg with a sweep and it's the easiest path.

3 seed:  BW. Their series with Marietta could be the difference between being the two and the three.

4 seed:  muskingum. Pitching could be the undoing.

Berg really struggled on defense and at the plate against Marietta. They lost a lot of talent after last year and with the injuries to their pitching staff they just aren't the team they were a year ago. 

Jcu has the toughest slate to go. I don't think they will be able to keep pace.

[forheavendial4999]

If I had to pick based on the quality information provided by forheavanandevial, I would predict the following:

LOL I love that misspelling of my name. Devial sounds like devious haha.

Anyway, B-W could be behind Heidelberg by the end of the day Tuesday if Heidelberg gets a home sweep. They'd both be 7-5 and Heidelberg would have the head to head. Then B-W would have to play Marietta which Heidelberg already has. If Berg gets the sweep here, they're right back in it, which is why I say I think B-W is the most vulnerable of the top 4 right now.

[EttaFan1]

Typing on my iPhone......Not always pretty.

After watching 'Berg this weekend, I came away less than impressed.  Lizcano is still the best hitter in the conference (and probably the most feared hitter in the conference), after that, their offense takes a big drop off. Pitching was not their strong point either and BW's offensive numbers are impressive thus far. 

The thing which stood out the most about Heidelberg on Saturday was suspect defense.  Coach Palm was visibly frustrated with some of the defensive execution on Saturday.  It wasn't just the errors, either.  There were a handful of situations where infielders didn't carry out their assignments. This is not like what we have seen from his squads in the past. 

I would be very suprised if 'Berg is able to sweep BW when they meet.  BW is likely to start their ace, Havens (7-1, 2.41 ERA) in one of those games, which would give the Jackets an advantage in the pitching matchup vs. anyone the Princes throw in that game.  BW is hitting .336 (tops in the OAC) as a team.  Anything can happen, but a split would be huge for 'Berg at this point.  This is a "Must sweep" sitution for 'Berg. 

Tuesday Matchups:

Marietta (9-1, 22-4) @ Otterbein (3-7, 16-14):  Blaski vs. Reuter two of the better pitchers in the conference going head to head?  It could make for a quick 7-ining tilt.  Otterbein has been struggling a lot lately.  Marietta is starting to fire on all cylinders.  I look for a Marietta sweep.

BW (7-3, 23-6) @ Heidelberg (5-5, 16-13).  "Must Sweep" is the name of the series for 'Berg.  Beating Pat Havens will be a major challenge for 'Berg.  I look for a split.

Mount Union (7-3, 21-8) @ Capital (1-8, 12-15)  though it isn't a "Must sweep" series for the Raiders, a sweep would certainly help their cause to stay in the hunt.  Capital is bringing up the rear in the conference.  Good teams find ways to beat weaker teams.  Capital just doesn't have the pitching.  Mount sweeps.

Muskingum (7-3, 14-13) @ JCU (5-5, 12-13).  JCU has been quietly hanging around.  Muskingum is in there by the skin of their teeth.  JCU is playing catchup to the others in the pack, and a loss hurts their chances.  I predict a split here.

Wilmington (3-7, 6-17) @ Northern (2-7, 8-18).  Northern should take two.

[forheavendial4999]

I agree that beating Havens will probably be tough. Obviously I haven't seen him, and early in the year most of his games were against weaker clubs but lately he's done well against some good ones.