BB: OAC: Ohio Athletic Conference

[EttaFan1]

From previous analysis of tie breakers...

Heidelberg's best shot of making the field is a sweep of capital plus two loses by mount union. If mount wins one that leaves one st left. 

Otterbein would hold he advantage over both onu and Heidelberg in the event of a three way tie or a two way tie with Heidelberg.

Onu must sweep jcu to make the tourney, IMO, and finish 10-8.  9-9 won't do it for them.

There are so many possibilities, and combinations of finishes it is very difficult to predict. But I'll try.

1. Marietta wins at least one and probably 2 against Wilmington.  Cinching the top spot.
2. jcu at least splits with onu and clinches the 2 seed.
3.  Mount at worst splits with musk and grabs one of the final three spots.

So we are down to spot four. The possible teams are otterbein, capital, Heidelberg, and northern. 

Either cap or Heidelberg have to sweep the other, a split is an elimination, becuase the worst case scenario for otterbein is 9-9. 

Northern must at least split with jcu, if they are swept, it is elimination.

Otterrbein is in the best position of the four. A win and they are in.  Getting swept means at worst 9-9.  But they will have an eye on the northern series with jcu for certain.  A two way tie with northern is problematic for the Cards.

Lots of pressure on a few teams for certain. I'm sure the coaches know what needs to happen. The most important is to take care your own business and then worry about the other outcomes. For us fans though, it is fun to guess and make predictions.

[forheavendial4999]

I think ONU could win a tiebreak at 9-9 if it was with OTT. OTT being 9-9 would mean they won 0 against B-W, and ONU won 1 against B-W and 1 against JCU.

Easy way to think of it, otherwise. Unless HEID is in the tiebreak, the only mini-league sweep was MTU over ONU. Anything else and you have to go to top wins unless HEID sweeps.

Bottom line: I think OTT loses any tiebreak not involving HEID. And I think the only tiebreaks HEID can win involve MTU, which I think we agree is unlikely.

I think if OTT wins 1, they're safe because I can't see ONU sweeping at JCU.

I think MAR 1 seed, JCU 2 seed is already locked because of tiebreaks. JCU's sweeps of OTT and split of B-W eventually assure that, I think.

This sure would be a lot more fun if B-W was in it.

[EttaFan1]

Just in case there is a three way tie at 9-9 between Heidelberg, Otterbein, and Northern for the fourth spot.

         Ott   Onu.   Heid
Ott.           1-1.    2-0.   3-1
Onu.   1-1.           1-1.   2-2
Held.   0-2. 1-1.            1-3

Otterbein would win this three way tie breaker (which is not out of the question--ott is swept by BW, Berg sweeps cap, northern splits with JCU)

[EttaFan1]

Marietta handled Denison last night.  Dension was in self destruct mode as they committed five errors in the ball game.  Most of Marietta's early runs came with two outs and many were unearned.  I'm sure Coach Deegan won't be pleased with his teams performance defensively.  This was a good in region win for the Pioneers.

Today is a big day for "in region" games in the conference.  BW has two games with Case Western Reserve (obviously bigger for CWRU than BW but still).  JCU is looking to imrpove their regional resume with a single game against Wooster.  Other in-region games include Heidelberg against wittenberg and Muskingum vs. W&J. 

Tomorrow features in region games between Heidelberg and Wooster, Northern and Wittenberg, Muskingum and OWU.  The most interesting matchup for Wednesday though looks like a matchup between JCU and B-W (JCU was probably wise to drop their game with Hiram to play BW again.  A win against Hiram would have not helped their SOS or their team at all).  It won't count in the conference race, but it is an important in region matchup. 

Cap and OWU play on Thurdsay before the final weekend of league play.

The radio guys for Marietta last night passed along word that Marietta SID Jeff Schaly had confirmed, that Marietta has secured the right to host the OAC tournament by the tie breaker formulas.

[Bishopleftiesdad]

Etta,
I do not believe it was JCU's decision. When Hiram Kenyon was postponed on Sunday, Hiram had to cancel with JCU to complete the games against Kenyon. I think Kenyon insisted because if they take two more from Hiram they are tied for third in the east. This is big because it is the difference of playing Denison or Witt in the cross over to get to the NCAC tournament.

[jskomra10]

bishop you're absolutely right

[EttaFan1]

Makes sense.  Sometimes I don't dig deeply enough. 

[EttaFan1]

B-W Splits with Case
JCU drops a decision to Wooster.

JCU and BW in non-leauge action today.
Wooster and Heidelberg as well. 

I think the loss to Wooster puts JCU in a position where they must win the OAC tournament to get a regional bid.  They had three key in region games against Case and Wooster and managed to go 1-2. 

In my opinion,
Marietta should make the regional (barring an 0-7 run in their last weekend and quick exit from the OAC tournament).
JCU, Mount, and whomever the 4 seed is have to win the tournament to get a bid.

[EttaFan1]

Ouch.  JCU 

Wooster eeks out 'Berg in extras. 

Last weekend coming up...Prediction time.

Biggest Series of the weekend:  Otterbein and BW-Otterbein needs at least one in this series.  BW is playing for pride as their season ends Saturday.  Both of these teams were very erratic on offense when I saw them.  Their pitching was adequate.  BW's defense left much to be desired.  Toughey and Meadows are legitimate candidates for POY in the league.  If Otterbein gets swept they could still get in to the tournament but will have to do some scoreboard watching along the way.  I think both were a bit inflated by early season cupcake schedules, and I'm not sure there is a big difference between either.  My prediction....BW takes two in Westerville.

Marietta and Wilmington.  Marietta could (not saying they will) save their top arms for CWRU on Saturday and still win handily.  Marietta sweeps with little trouble.
JCU and Northern.  Dorring and O'Brien are en fuego on the hill.  Northern may not score more than 2 runs in 16 innings against those two.  JCU wins two.
Mount and Muskingum.  Mount must win one to clinch their spot for next weekend.  Noticed where Muskinum scored 22 runs against Ohio Wesleyan.  They are bipolar, but mostly not particularly good.  Mount does its job and wins two.
Heidelberg and Capital.  Both teams are 7-9 in league play.  If either wants any chance to make the tournament, they have to win two games.  It is really unfortunate that the injury bug bit 'Berg as hard as it did.  I really thought they would be a serious contender to be hosting next weekend.  'Berg has too much pitching depth, and cap is not particularly strong offensively.  Heidelberg get's a chance to sneak in the back door, but will end up finishing their season on Saturday.  Heidelberg sweeps.

[forheavendial4999]

With you on all but HEID-CAP. CAP is playing pretty well right now, has beaten 2 of the top 3 teams, and is getting good pitching. I don't know what HEID has for pitching right now if Holt is on the fritz and Thomas went against Wooster. Regardless of what their season numbers say, this has not been a good pitching team over the last 10 or so games.

I'll say a split, but a CAP sweep wouldn't surprise me.

[Bishopleftiesdad]

Ouch.  JCU 

Wooster eeks out 'Berg in extras. 

Last weekend coming up...Prediction time.

Biggest Series of the weekend:  Otterbein and BW-Otterbein needs at least one in this series.  BW is playing for pride as their season ends Saturday.  Both of these teams were very erratic on offense when I saw them.  Their pitching was adequate.  BW's defense left much to be desired.  Toughey and Meadows are legitimate candidates for POY in the league.  If Otterbein gets swept they could still get in to the tournament but will have to do some scoreboard watching along the way.  I think both were a bit inflated by early season cupcake schedules, and I'm not sure there is a big difference between either.  My prediction....BW takes two in Westerville.

Marietta and Wilmington.  Marietta could (not saying they will) save their top arms for CWRU on Saturday and still win handily.  Marietta sweeps with little trouble.
JCU and Northern.  Dorring and O'Brien are en fuego on the hill.  Northern may not score more than 2 runs in 16 innings against those two.  JCU wins two.
Mount and Muskingum.  Mount must win one to clinch their spot for next weekend. Noticed where Muskinum scored 22 runs against Ohio Wesleyan.  They are bipolar, but mostly not particularly good.  Mount does its job and wins two.
Heidelberg and Capital.  Both teams are 7-9 in league play.  If either wants any chance to make the tournament, they have to win two games.  It is really unfortunate that the injury bug bit 'Berg as hard as it did.  I really thought they would be a serious contender to be hosting next weekend.  'Berg has too much pitching depth, and cap is not particularly strong offensively.  Heidelberg get's a chance to sneak in the back door, but will end up finishing their season on Saturday.  Heidelberg sweeps.

I agree they are not particularly good. Not that we are any better right now, not saying that we deserved this loss.
Here comes the BUT,
The pitchers they faced are not particularly tough, almost the same group that Cap faced last week. There era is as follows
8.57   
5.40       
6.00   
6.75
Some with limited innings. We rare throw a weekend starter on Weds games. Day two starters may get some innings tonight. It is possible we could have been more competitive if we had used other pitchers. I said it earlier. Where pitching was going to be a strength early in the year it has now become a weakness and we just are not deep enough.
Congrats to Muskingum.

[EttaFan1]

I don't know what HEID has for pitching right now if Holt is on the fritz and Thomas went against Wooster.

Curious thing.  Thomas battled injuries this year (Broken hand I think).  Yet he is one of the better pitchers on the 'Berg staff (the numbers show it, too).  He threw well against Wooster (6.0 IP)  and against Trine and not so well against BW.  Perhaps motorman can shed some light, on why he wasn't "saved" to throw against Capital this weekend.  Maybe he isn't "back" to full strength yet? 

[motorman]

I don't know what HEID has for pitching right now if Holt is on the fritz and Thomas went against Wooster.

Curious thing.  Thomas battled injuries this year (Broken hand I think).  Yet he is one of the better pitchers on the 'Berg staff (the numbers show it, too).  He threw well against Wooster (6.0 IP)  and against Trine and not so well against BW.  Perhaps motorman can shed some light, on why he wasn't "saved" to throw against Capital this weekend.  Maybe he isn't "back" to full strength yet?

Holt isn't on the fritz, he pitched well against JCU last week and got no run support. Thomas was rushed back 4 days after he had his splint removed to pitch against BW, which happened to be a Tuesday. Think they just went with him in the midweek and kept Holt and the freshman Huber, who was great against Mount, on the weekend. Huber struggled last week against JCU, but once again a lack of hitting pretty much made that a moot point.

[forheavendial4999]

Holt isn't on the fritz, he pitched well against JCU last week and got no run support. Thomas was rushed back 4 days after he had his splint removed to pitch against BW, which happened to be a Tuesday. Think they just went with him in the midweek and kept Holt and the freshman Huber, who was great against Mount, on the weekend. Huber struggled last week against JCU, but once again a lack of hitting pretty much made that a moot point.

Holt walked 6 and gave up 8 hits in 4 2/3 against John Carroll, striking out 3. That's far from a good outing for a top 2 rotation guy.

He walked 5 against Mount even though that obviously was a better outing. Threw 111 pitches there after throwing 121 in his first start back against Marietta. I'm guessing he was close to or over 100 against JCU as well (27 batters faced plus obvious control problems)

If he had been healthy all year, this wouldn't be anything...but coming straight back from injury and going over 110 pitches the first two times back (and 120 on the first one)...seems like asking a lot.

Seems like Holt walks several guys, question is just whether he'll miss enough bats to get away with it.

[EttaFan1]

For some reason Frostburg State isn't coming to Marietta on Sunday, and as a result, the Pioneers will travel to LaRoche.

John Carroll is up one spot in the Regional rankings this week to #8.  Marietta remains in the top spot. 

Motorman, thanks for the input.  I feel for the 'Berg program.  As big of a rival as they have become in the past 10 years, the league is a lot more interesting and exciting when they are in the top portion of the rankings.  Injuries happen in any year and the season continues.  Unfortunately the specific combination of injuries appeared too much to overcome. 

The OAC with a healthy 'Berg and a post season eligible B-W could have made for one of the most competitive conference tournaments in the country. 

Because it is Derby weekend....

AND DOWN THE STRETCH THEY COME!