BB: OAC: Ohio Athletic Conference

[Spence]

Also Spence, absolutely no jealousy involved in my opinion of Berg's best pitcher. I was trying to point out the absurdity of someone who hasn't seen anyone from Berg throw a single pitch this year giving an opinion like that. I like what Hendrixson has done and hope all of the pitching staff has great success this year. I wouldn't venture an opinion of who Marietta's best pitcher is since I haven't seen any of them in person.

I do find it curious that after Heidelberg sweeps Manchester, we hear your opinion that they aren't that good. By your criteria, Marietta shouldn't be ranked either since they lost so much to graduation. Glad we have the D3.com poll to go by rather than your personal agenda.

I didn't see Linfield play last year but I had them #1 by this time last year. I picked Southern Maine to win their regional and finish 2nd in the Series as well.
I didn't see Marietta play in 2010 but I had a good feeling that even though all the talk was Heidelberg that year that Marietta would be really good  in 2011. All they did was win the championship in completely dominant fashion, then go and do it again. In short, my track record of being able to make assessments even without seeing teams is one with which I'm quite comfortable. I did miss on Illinois Wesleyan, but so did everyone else haha.

No one asked me what I thought of Manchester. It wasn't on topic...so I didn't say anything here. I didn't realize I was required to share my every thought here with you. I'm flattered that you're so interested, though!

Marietta has a bunch of FR and SO pitching for them and comes back north with a sub 2.00 ERA against great competition. Some people didn't think much of Marietta in preseason but I bet they're getting more votes now. I expected them to be good because I knew what kind of recruiting class they had, but I didn't even expect the pitching to be *this* good. I can't ever remember seeing this many young guys pitch this much and do it this well for MC.

8 of 10 teams that has a top 50 schedule strength, a .700 wpct, and at least 8 games played is in my rankings (or are 6-1 and so would be over .700 even if they lost). The two that aren't are Johnson & Wales and Salve Regina, so I guess I just hate Rhode Island. But considering i use the schedule strength sparingly, I think it shows that I'm generally on the right track.

Now I just need to figure out who my new #1 is...

[EttaFan1]

Some really early SOS stuff for the OAC schools....(WIns and losses are the regional record for each team)

29. John Carroll, 5-6, OP WP: .6395, OOWP: .5564, NCAA SOS: .612
47. Marietta 7-3, Op WP: .595, OOWP .6013, NCAA SOS .595
112. Heidelberg, 11-2, OP WP: .5162, OOWP: .6084, NCAA SOS .547
169 . Ohio Northern, 6-3, OP WP: .481, OOWP: .5653, NCAA SOS .509
213. Baldwin Wallace, 7-2, OP WP: .4444, OOWP: .5716, NCAA SOS .487
227. Otterbein, 7-1, OP WP: .4634, OOWP, .5094, NCAA SOS .479
232. Capital, 7-4: OP WP: .4598, OOWP: .5028, NCAA SOS .474
258. Muskingum, 3-6: OP WP: .4366, OOWP: .4761, NCAA SOS: .450
264. Mount Union 7-0, OPWP: .3966, OOWP: .5342, NCAA SOS .442
268. Wilmington 0-9, OWP: .4583, OOWP: .4094, NCAA SOS .442

Other in region teams of note:

14 W&J 5-2, OP WP: .7143, OOWP: .5488, NCAA SOS: .659
28. Adrian 4-3, OP WP .6286, OOWP: .5869 NCAA SOS .65
40. Manchester 4-5, OP WP .6286, OOWP: .5440, NCAA SOS, .600
48. Wooster. 3-3, OP WP: .6078, OOWP: .5672, NCAA SOS .594
103 Case Western Reserve, 11-3,OP WP: .5355, OOWP: .5905, NCAA SOS: .554

These numbers will change drastically as the season progresses, and I'll let each of you decide how to interepret what you see. 

[Dr. Acula]

Mount's game today with Thiel is PPD until tomorrow.  They also have Westminster Wed. at Cene Park.  Hopefully they can get in something prior to JCU Sat.

Also, that SOS stuff doesn't look promising for Musky and Wilm so far considering their records to date.  But as you said, it's very early.  I tend to agree with Spence in that outside of those 2 anyone can beat just about anyone any given day.  It's going to be fun. 

[Spence]

I think the midweek games are going to be particularly interesting and challenging, especially with the 9 inning games.

I would say more but frankly, I don't want to give anyone any ideas!

[Spence]

Seeing the new site rankings, I'm thinking my personal rankings are a lot better.

George Fox ranked after getting swept by a non-power program (albeit one that did take a game off Linfield, but only one)? smh...

Case only being 23rd is something that makes very little sense as well.

I have Case somewhere like 13 and feel like that might be low. They and Marietta both have 3 losses, all by 1 run, IIRC. And they showed very well in IMO the toughest regional last year.

There's disagreement on the order, but the top dozen or so is about the same as the poll...then it gets crazy.

[EttaFan1]

OAC schools in the poll:

Marietta (11)
Mount UNion (17)
Berg (ORV)
OTT (ORV)

League games this weekend:
Marietta @ Otterbein
Mount Union @ JCU
Berg @ BW
Cap @ MUSK
Wilm @ ONU

Opening weekend has matchups of the top six schools and will set the tone early. 

[Dr. Acula]

Mount has PPD the Thiel game again this time until Thursday.  Tentatively now have Westminster (DH) at Cene Park on Wed, Thiel Thurs and @ JCU Sat.

I'd love to sneak over to Westerville Saturday for that Etta DH, but I don't think work will allow for it.  Too bad they're not playing Friday as it's supposed to drop about 25 degrees from Friday to Saturday here.

[Dr. Acula]

League games this weekend:
Marietta @ Otterbein
Mount Union @ JCU
Berg @ BW
Cap @ MUSK
Wilm @ ONU

Opening weekend has matchups of the top six schools and will set the tone early.

I think Etta sweeps and the others split.  Etta's pitching is too good so far to pick against them until proven otherwise.  I don't trust BW's pitching, but I think their offense is good enough to get them a split.  Mount and JCU are pretty evenly matched IMO so a split is the logical choice there too.

[ADL70]

Seeing the new site rankings, I'm thinking my personal rankings are a lot better.


Case only being 23rd is something that makes very little sense as well.

I have Case somewhere like 13 and feel like that might be low. They and Marietta both have 3 losses, all by 1 run, IIRC. And they showed very well in IMO the toughest regional last year.

Spence, I'm not quite as sold on CWRU.  Eight of their 14 games were one-run.  5-3 in those.  1-3 in low scoring games.

[Spence]

Seeing the new site rankings, I'm thinking my personal rankings are a lot better.


Case only being 23rd is something that makes very little sense as well.

I have Case somewhere like 13 and feel like that might be low. They and Marietta both have 3 losses, all by 1 run, IIRC. And they showed very well in IMO the toughest regional last year.

Spence, I'm not quite as sold on CWRU.  Eight of their 14 games were one-run.  5-3 in those.  1-3 in low scoring games.

I don't tend to think 1 run games are as much tossups as many do, particularly since 2011. The 13-12 game probably is, though a lot of that was guys that hardly pitch and errors from guys that won't play much.

One thing that makes it hard to know what to do with Case going forward is that they'll be able to set their pitching to how they want in the northern schedule while teams with conference schedules won't. Makes it tough to know just how well they're playing sometimes.

[EttaFan1]

League games this weekend:
Marietta @ Otterbein
Mount Union @ JCU
Berg @ BW
Cap @ MUSK
Wilm @ ONU

Opening weekend has matchups of the top six schools and will set the tone early.

I think Etta sweeps and the others split.  Etta's pitching is too good so far to pick against them until proven otherwise.  I don't trust BW's pitching, but I think their offense is good enough to get them a split.  Mount and JCU are pretty evenly matched IMO so a split is the logical choice there too.

I think the early spring has shown this might be a three horse race for the top spot, with three others in the mix for spots 2, 3, and 4. 

I think the Berg/BW tilt is the most intriguing.  Berg can swing some lumber for certain.  The thing which will be interesting is to see how well 'Berg's pitching does.  One of BW's top starters sports an ERA of 3.09, while the guy who leads the teams in starts and innings pitched has an ERA in excess of 5.  The way Berg is hitting it that could be a probem for the Jackets.   BW has some pretty impressive offensive stats, but have compiled those against a pretty weak schedule, thus far.  If Berg doesn't beat themselves and gets a solid start from their #2 guy, I see them getting a sweep in Berea.   

Otterbein is hitting it well (again against fairly bad competition) batting .372 as a team.  But their pitching appears to be a complete disaster.  A team ERA of 7.61 and Opponents are hitting  .331 against them.  Their top two starters (based on starts and innings pitched) have an ERA of 6.35 and 7.02.  (Prediction: Both will have the games of their lives on Satuday).   Marietta needs to get the bats going and let Byers and Herstine do their thing.    I agree with the good Doc, I see a Pioneer Sweep.

JCU is somewhat of an enigma this year.  Is O'Brien hurt?  Will he be available against Mount Union, and if so how good will he be.  The guys you would expect to be hitting well are doing just that, but the others, not so much.  A year ago, JCU's strength was its pitching...This year it has been a fairly rough start.  Of their 4 starters, the best ERA of the bunch is 4.72.  LaPaglia, one of their top guys, has struggled thus far, 18.1 IP,  5.89 ERA, OpAvg .301, WHIP 1.528.  I don't see this as a split either.  I see Mount taking 2.  Clarke and Carlino will be good enough. 

I really think, right now, 'Berg, Mount Union, and Marietta are the three chasing the top spot, and there is some seperation between those and the next three teams (JCU, OTT, and BW).

[Dr. Acula]

EttaFan1, you're thinking of Doring.  O'Brien graduated.  Spence was questioning earlier if he was hurt because he hadn't pitched yet.  I haven't checked their stats to see if has since that time.

I never saw Collier pitch last year, but what I did see from Ott was not impressive on the mound beyond Meadows.  They had a lot of "ehhh" guys the games I watched. 

[Spence]

Manchester loses, 9-5. DePauw must have an amazing offense!

[Dr. Acula]

Now the Westminster DH is PPD with no make up date.  Such is spring time in Ohio. 

[EttaFan1]

EttaFan1, you're thinking of Doring.  O'Brien graduated.  Spence was questioning earlier if he was hurt because he hadn't pitched yet.  I haven't checked their stats to see if has since that time.

I never saw Collier pitch last year, but what I did see from Ott was not impressive on the mound beyond Meadows.  They had a lot of "ehhh" guys the games I watched.

Doring hasn't thrown either.