BB: OAC: Ohio Athletic Conference

[Dr. Acula]

Haha, nope...I'm just scrambling trying to get extensions done now.  The last of my timely filed returns were picked up Saturday.

I'm worried enough about Musky.  I can't even think about BW.  Musky is 5-5.  They're good enough to sweep Mount so this is a tall order tomorrow.  Carlino and Clarke went Saturday so I assume it'll be a 3-4 matchup for the midweek DH.  Could get interesting.   

[EttaFan1]

Looks like Mother Nature with the sweep today.     As a fan I applaud this.  I was not going to sit and watch baseball in these temps. 

[mideastfan2]

Looks like Mother Nature with the sweep today.     As a fan I applaud this.  I was not going to sit and watch baseball in these temps.

as a former Ohio resident, now a Texan going on 9 years, it's funny how things change.  My high school kids that I coach are complaining about having to play today as well....because the temps could be in the low 50's at game time 

I will never forget playing OAC double-headers in snow flurries; and I will always be grateful for the weather I have down here.

Good luck to all OAC teams as they play this week; and GO ETTA EXPRESS!

[Spence]

Well that's a big break for teams that threw their 1 and 2 on Saturday and would rather use them Wednesday than Friday.

Probably affects BW and Ohio Northern the most, since they have two pretty challenging doubleheaders in the next 3 days now. They'll have to manage relief pitching unless they get long starting outings.

[Spence]

Looks like BW-ONU is off for tomorrow, as is Muskingum-Mount Union.

John Carroll-Heidelberg and Capital-Marietta still on as of now. From the looks of the hourly snow depth plot, I wouldn't bet on baseball in Tiffin.

http://www.weatherstreet.com/weather-forecast/ohio-snow-cover.htm

Maybe Heidelberg should give up a home date and play at a neutral site, you know, to get the games in and not disrupt the schedule further. Looks like Chillicothe should be playable. Carroll had to give one up and Heidelberg got out of a road trip, so it would only be fair.

Safe to say Thursday and Friday shape up to be Northern's most important couple of days of baseball in quite a few years.

[EttaFan1]

55 and sunny is the forecast today for Marietta.  Betting that series gets played, today. 

Hard to believe it was near 70 and beautiful in northern Ohio last Saturday and then this.  Of course it was 75 here in the ohio tropics last saturday, and we didn't get any accumulation. 

[Spence]

Wow, I just can't *believe* that Heidelberg wasn't willing to give up a home date to get games in today. I mean home field advantage doesn't mean anything, it said on this site a few days ago.

Well, I guess we know all that was BS now.

Looks like Capital-Marietta is still a go down in the Mediterranean climate of the south coast. First settlement, best settlement.

[Spence]

Jason Byers throws a 1 hitter over 8 innings in a 5-0 shutout win over Capital in the first game.

Ryan Hanahan back from being hit in the face by a pitch with a 2 for 4 with a triple and two RBIs, and Chris Winpigler got a pinch-hit appearance to mark his return from injury as well.

Didn't catch the pregame to know what the Game 2 plan is. Might be a surprise to some that Byers pitched, but not if you know the program.

EDIT: Mike Finlan throws a complete game shutout in a 6-0 win in Game 2.

[EttaFan1]

Some interesting decisions to be made today in some key matchups...

1.  ONU vs. BW:  For ONU, they have a matchup with Marietta looming tomorrow and of course are tied with BW.  Given that pitching staffs from Saturday are fully rested, does ONU throw Eltzroth and Glischinski today and counter with Maier and Deitering on Friday against Marietta.  The most important game is the next one you play, and when you are in a dog fight for a playoff spot, you have to give yourself every opportunity to beat the team with whom you are currently tied.  BW hosts Mount Union on Friday and is looking at a similar situation.  Does that mean Waite and Albright today? 

2.  JCU @ Berg:  Berg has to play Wilmington on Friday so they really have no worries about who pitches.  Do they use Thomas and Huber?  Or Fluharty and Manner?  I guess it comes down to whom Coach Palm feels gives them the best chance to win against a good JCU squad.  JCU hosts Cap tomorrow so, really they are in the same situation.  Lapaglia and Maddern today and whomever #3 (Materise) and #4 (Turosky) are against Cap.  Should be a good matchup regardless.

3.  Mount and Muskingum.  For Mount this is a dangerous series, Muskingum is good enough to beat them (and I still think a loss ends Mount's post season aspirations).  But BW is a very good hitting team.  Coach Hesse has a real interesting call to make here with his pitching staff.  Throw Clarke and Carlino today and HOPE that the other guys can hold up against BW (A very tall order against a very good hitting team, IMO), or throw 3 and 4 against Muskingum who is not very strong offensively to give your guys the best chance with Clarke and Carlino tomorrow. 

The coaches with the toughest decisions, IMO are Hesse and the guy at Northern.

It will be interesting to see what shakes loose today.

Update:  Game 1.  ONU starts Eltzroth, BW Durbin, Mount Union goes with Ceriani. Berg goes with Fluharty, and JCU with Materise.  SO berg/JCU is 3 vs 3, ONU/BW is 2 vs. 3, and Mount goes with 3
 

[Spence]

Well Etta, those were good thoughts on what *seemed* to make sense...

IMO Northern did it right. They're tied with BW in the standings, today is most important.

It's not that tough to imagine Palm thinking Fluharty has been his best starter, but I can't imagine what Thibeault's thinking going with Materise. I guess we'll see if it works out, but you sure would have thought they would go with Lapaglia.

For Mount, it doesn't really matter...they just need wins. 3 of 4 makes them 6-8. They'd have to sweep from there to have much if any shot, IMO. There have been years where 9-9 and 8-10 made it, but I don't think this will be one of them.

[EttaFan1]

BW takes game 1 from Northern 5-4.  Game 2 starters: For NOrthern Glischinski, for BW: Alioto.
Berg takes game 1 from JCU 10-7.  Game 2 starters: For JCU: Doring, For Berg: Manner
Mount takes game 1 from Musk 8-7 (10), game 2 starter for Mount: Toma. 

So ONU approached this as I thought they would.  Berg and JCU did not.  So far for Berg it has worked out.  Mount played it like I thought they would as well...Saving Clarke and Carlino for BW. 

[Spence]

BW takes game 1 from Northern 5-4.  Game 2 starters: For NOrthern Glischinski, for BW: Alioto.
Berg takes game 1 from JCU 10-7.  Game 2 starters: For JCU: Doring, For Berg: Manner
Mount takes game 1 from Musk 8-7 (10). 

So ONU approached this as I thought they would.  Berg and JCU did not.  So far for Berg it has worked out.  Mount played it like I thought they would as well...Saving Clarke and Carlino for BW.

BW is in an interesting position in that they really don't have an ace...1-4 (and probably beyond) are about the same. I think Alioto is probably better than his numbers suggest...he gave up a lot against scholarship teams. I guess we'll find out this afternoon.

Northern seems to be going hard after these two against the team with which they were tied in the standings. Makes sense. Don't ask me what some of the other teams are doing. John Carroll and Heidelberg seem to have made the same suboptimized choice, leading to a theoretically avoidable slugfest in the first game. 

[Spence]

Doring seems to be just about warmed up enough for his performance of the year against Marietta like last year. Just maybe doesn't quite have the endurance built up to go that deep yet after being injured.

John Carroll is all of a sudden in a bit of a precarious position with BW and ONU both just a game out. A pretty good team is going to be left out of the conference tournament.

[Dr. Acula]

Mount took care of business today with a sweep. They've given themselves a puncher's chance now.  With Carlino and Clarke tomorrow they at least have a chance.  In fact, I guess technically it's Carlino and Clarke from here on out. After sitting at 1-7 they're 18 innings from being right in the thick of the race.  Can't ask for more than that considering the start.

[EttaFan1]

JCU's strategy to "throw off" is baffling.  Biggest series of the year and you don't trot out 1 and 2 to throw against the top team in the conference.  It is easy to second guess a coach (and my career record is 0-0), but of all of the strategies yesterday, JCU's made the least sense. 

Hats off to 'Berg.  They swept a good opponent and now sit squarely in the drivers seat.  All they have to do is sweep Wilmington and avoid a costly loss to a pesky, but below average, otterbein team and a pretty good pitching ONU team. 

Here is how things are shaping up for today's matchups....

Game of the day:  6t. Mount (5-7,  5GB 1st, 2GB Playoffs) @ 4t BW (7-5, 3GB 1st)—Mount Union's strategy of saving their top two arms for today worked out well, and as Dr. A mentioned, they have put themselves right back into a scenario where they have a chance to reach 4th.  Of course, BW saved their top two guys also.  This has huge implications for both teams in the playoff race.  Mount Has to have a sweep here, IMO.  BW has games with Muskingum and Capital remaining, and they could easily sweep those two.  Mount has Wilmington and OTterbein which are winable series for the raiders.  BW getting swept puts them in a precarious position of needing help as they would essentially need Mount to lose again to make the field.  Mount Union fans will also be scoreboard watching to see if Marietta can sweep Northern, which is something they need to have happen.  So Dr. A, as much as it might hurt, you really need to be a Pioneer fan for a day to help your own cause. 

Second best game of the day:  2 Marietta (9-3, 1GB) vs 4 ONU (7-5, 3 GB).  Marietta has to win out and hope for Berg to stub its toe and see how tie breakers sort out to have a chance to host the tourney.  ONU needs to win to keep pace.  The Polar Bears used their top two guys yesteday in their split with BW, but 3 and 4 have good numbers this year.  Marietta will go with their #2 Herstine, and somebody else (at this point I don't think #4 has been solidified, but if Nieberding has been that guy for most of the year). 

The other games...

9 CAP (2-10, 8 GB 1st, 5.0 GB Playoffs) @ 3 JCU (8-4, 3 GB):  Cap is all but mathematically eliminated from the playoff race, 5 games off the pace with 6 games to play. JCU is in a dangerous spot though.  A trip to Marietta looms next weekend followed by hosting Muskingum.  While the tiebreaker over BW is helpful, three losses could find themselves at a 4 seed or even out of the tourney depending on what else happens.  JCU needs to win these two very winable ball games, and has to win 3 of the next 6 to be playing in the tournament.

1 Berg (8-2) @ 9 WILM (2-10 GB 1st 5 GB Playoffs).  No analysis needed here.  A good hitting team with decent pitching spells big numbers for Berg.  Berg hosts Otterbein next week and finishes with a short trip to Ada.

6t Musk (5-7, 5 GB 1st, 2 GB Playoffs) @ 6t Ott (5-7)—Neither of these two are out of the playoff race.  But they need things to fall into place the right way.  Their chances are slim.  One of them needs a sweep, and then needs some help from Marietta and Mount Union today to create a 4 way tie four the fourth and final playoff spot (BW, MOUNT, ONU, and whomever sweeps this one)....Let's see Jupiter is in the house of Leo, and....Anyhow.  It matters but not just that much.

My picks for the top 4. 

Berg, Marietta, JCU and BW.  These are the four best teams in the league.  I think BW gets the 4th spot and JCU the third.  Berg's series with both OTT and ONU are dangerous and either could result in a split.  I don't think the top two spots are settled just yet. Berg is certainly in the drivers seat, though and to this point, has earned their way to the top spot.  Marietta has a tough series to day and with JCU next week, and if they slip up, they could easily be the 2 or the 3 seed. 

Of course I'm frequently wrong, so it won't suprise me if Mount makes this race a total mess later today.