BB: OAC: Ohio Athletic Conference

[EttaFan1]

Motorman, please do not try to drag me or anyone else into this little spat you are having.  Whatever you two have going on is between you two, I'm not going to be part of it.  I really don't care what the two of you have going on either out in the open or behind the scenes. 

My point to spence was simple, A hbp is as good as a walk or a single.  Baserunners represent scoring chances, and for completeness, I think it is reasonable to include them in any discussion of offense.  It is not a condemnation of his opinions about 'Berg,  JCU, or BW.  It is just my opinion. 

How HBP's happen are often a matter of subjectivity.  What one person says is crowding the plate or leaning in, another will say differently.  That opinion is influenced by your own rooting interests.  Bottom line, they happened.  I couldn't care less how they happened, either. 

Here is a look at some pitching/defensive numbers. 

Team	WHIP	OPP PA/IP	PA/9IP	WH/PA	ER/R	OppAvg	Opp OBP	Fld PCt
Berg	1.627	4.642	41.779	.351	.695	.276	.356	.951
JCU	1.518	4.475	40.274	.339	.831	.283	.346	.957
Mar	1.251	4.209	37.881	.297	.818	.242	.302	.970
BW	1.522	4.486	40.373	.339	.801	.271	.343	.950

WHIP-Walks&Hits per inning pitched, HBP numbers are included as walks.
OPP PA/IP--How many plate appearances do opponents have per inning.  Factors in the "Extra outs" from errors along with the other factors of reachingbase.
PA/9 IP--How many plate appearances per a 9 inning game (ie scoring chances)
WH/PA-Walks (HBP+BB) and Hits per plate appearance.
ER/R--Percentage of runs allowed from clean defense. 
Opp Avg- Opp batting avg
OPP OBP-Opponent On base percentage
Fieldng pct.-Standard definition applies.

You can draw your own conclusions from the data.  Some things stand out to me. 

This tournament is going to be one of the toughest in the country, IMO, and whomever wins it would not be a surprise.  It wouldn't surprise me if the losers bracket game on friday was between the top two seeds, nor would it surprise me if one of those two won their first two games with little difficulty. 

Normally, the OAC tourney is 1 and 2 and everyone else is there because they have to be.  Some years it has been the top seed just warming up for the regional.  That is not the case this year.  It is going to be fun!

[Spence]

A few things.

An HBP is not as good as a single because you can't score on a hit by pitch.

I think it is far beyond subjectivity when your numbers are as far outside the normal distribution as Heidelberg's are. Through April 27th (the last round of NCAA stats), Heide had 97 HBP in 36 games, by far the most in the country (almost 3 a game!). #2 was 81. Going beyond that, Heidelberg's SOS suggests that they have played better than average pitching that would be more capable than most of avoiding HBPs.

In 2010 they set by far and away the D3 record with 124 HBPs, beating out (no surprise) Wooster, who in turn broke the record of (also no surprise) 1997 Allegheny. So there must be something about being in northern Ohio and being a ball magnet. Or, more likely, it's monkey-see, monkey-do, with Allegheny and Wooster being in the same division of the NCAC and Palm being a Wooster guy. There is damn little subjectivity here.

The interesting thing about the first day matchups is that Heidelberg and John Carroll are going to be seeing new pitchers. Their top guys didn't face each other in the regular season.

[EttaFan1]

A comment about the tournament schedule. 

There used to be seperate schedules for locations with lights and one without lights.  They did away with this a couple of years ago.  I think this is short sighted and not particularly fan friendly. 

If you have a facility where you can play under the lights, you should take advantage of those opportunities.  There is no reason, why game 1 shouldn't be JCU and Berg starting at 3 or 4, and the game between Marietta and BW at 6 or 7 Thursday night.  At worst, play the Marietta BW game second.  Why?  Gate receipts.  A time on Thursday later in the day for the home school to play means more $ at the gate to offset expenses. 

Don't know why there was a need to make this happen.  I've heard excuses about "using good weather."  I can't remember the last time the weather so altered the tournament that they had to make it single elimination or cancel it all together. 

I'll be there anyhow.  But it would be nice if the league would make this a little more fan friendly. 

[Dr. Acula]

On the special awards...I think Herstine is an absolute lock.  He has been dominant.  Look at the hits allowed vs. IP.  It's sick.

I think Brewer wins COY as he should IMO.  That team lacks a star hitter and is young on the mound to say the least.  That's not a team that just anyone could win the OAC title with in a year where there were several good teams contending.

Rafeld is tougher, but I think Hug is the pick here IMO.  #1 in the conference in avg, hits, runs scored and RBI.  Top 5 in slugging, steals.  He hits for average, power and can run.  I've never seen him play so I can't speak to his D, but he's definitely a complete offensive player.

I'll be interested to see how the All-OAC awards shake out.  1B will be interesting because Chontos, Spagna, Simmerman and Knott all had very good, similar numbers.  Personally I think it's between Spagna and Chontos for 1st team with the edge going to Spagna as a senior.

[Spence]

Hug did all of his damage outside the conference though, mostly before conference play started. Maybe his workload wore him down, in which case being done with classes will probably help. I don't know, but if the coaches vote based on what they've seen, i don't know that very many will have come away with the impression that he's the guy. He may win it, but I don't think it's the best choice. He's 14 for 56 (.250) on the season against the best teams on their schedule (Case, Adrian, Moravian, Alvernia, Marietta, JCU, BW)

If you had to draft a team from the league right now though, my first non-pitcher pick is Tyler Packanik. Simply no one close to as valuable in the middle infield.

[Dr. Acula]

But the problem is if not Hug, then who?  You could make an argument for half a dozen guys being about the same.  There's definitely no Jay Coakley this year.  Haha.

   

 

[Spence]

Oh I know that was my point in bringing it up. Like I say, I wouldn't have a problem with Robberts from Muskingum. Played 3 positions and hit just under .400, was consistent all year. Multi-hit games against Alvernia, Salem State Haverford (2), Marietta (2), Baldwin-Wallace (2), Washington and Jefferson, Heidelberg,  Handel has been the best hitter IMO over the full season but I don't like the idea of a DH winning the player of the year. Mitch Geers is just the opposite of Hug...been better lately but struggled for a while. Packanik didn't play for about 15 games of the season but has been the best player in league play. Simmerman has really good numbers but playing at Otterbein you always wonder what that means. I think Belliveau has made a lot of big plays for his team but the overall numbers aren't there. Knott has been consistently good. The best hitter in league play for Heidelberg has actually been their 9 hole Zenczak, who could be first-team all league SS.

It may come down to who the senior is, if anyone is lol. Robberts, Hug and Packanik I know are not.

[Dr. Acula]

What happened to Herringshaw this year?  He fell on some tough times by his lofty standards.  He could have had a good crack it with a year like folks expected from him.

[Spence]

Hard to say. It's a short season...if you scuffle for 2-3 weeks that's half the season.

Aaron Hopper of Marietta was similar in his senior year. Might be randomness, might be something else. Hard to say. Still think Herringshaw is a good player, just like Hopper was. Makes you appreciate all the more the guys that can do it over 2-3 seasons in a row.

[mideastfan2]

A comment about the tournament schedule. 

There used to be seperate schedules for locations with lights and one without lights.  They did away with this a couple of years ago.  I think this is short sighted and not particularly fan friendly. 

The different schedules are still listed in the OAC media guide, not sure why they don't follow it.  I just know that whenever the tournament has been held at Marietta, they have always followed the same format.

http://www.oac.org/sports/bsb/Media_Guides/2014baseball.pdf (pg 24)

[EttaFan1]

Today I share some pitching stats for the four teams in the OAC tournament.  The stats posted below are in games against regionally ranked opponents ONLY.  I couldn't care less what a pitcher did against Wilmington or Capital.  I am interested in what happened in games against quality opponent as that is what they will be facing. 

I'm starting with Heidelberg.  For no other reason, than that is who I started with.  The stats are compiled from what is availalbe on the OAC site.  There are some limitations.  There are no numbers for opponent average or even opponent at bats against an individual pitcher to compute it.  There are also no numbers for batters hit by the respective pitchers, so in this case, the calculated WHIP only includes walks and hits.

So here is Heidelberg's staff against regionally ranked opponents.

Player	w	l	sv	ip	h	r	r	era	bb	k	hr	Whip	K/BB	K/9
Thomas	2	1	0	19.0	28	19	9	4.26	9	5	1	1.95	.56	2.37
Fluharty	1	1	0	19.0	20	10	8	3.79	7	12	1	1.42	1.71	5.68
Manner	3	2	0	27.7	33	30	24	7.81	13	16	2	1.66	1.23	5.20
Huber	2	0	0	23.7	17	10	7	2.66	15	13	1	1.35	.866	4.94
Hendrixson	2	1	5	30.0	31	12	9	2.70	11	33	2	1.40	3.0	9.90
Watson	0	0	0	6.7	5	4	2	2.70	2	4	0	1.05	2.0	5.40
O' Driscoll	0	1	0	10.0	22	16	13	11.70	4	6	0	2.60	1.5	5.40
Gray	1	0	0	7.0	6	6	4	5.14	4	5	0	1.43	1.25	6.43
Sniezek	0	0	0	6.0	3	1	1	1.50	3	5	0	1.00	1.67	7.50
Reiter	0	0	0	2.0	2	1	0	0.00	1	1	0	1.50	1.00	4.50
Boedecker	0	0	0	2.0	3	3	1	4.50	1	4	0	2.00	4.0	18.00
Verde	0	0	0	2.0	2	2	2	9.00	1	1	0	1.50	1.00	4.50
Totals	11	6	5	155.0	172	114	80	4.65	71	105	7	1.57	1.47	6.10

k/bb fixed

Use it how you will to draw your own conclusions.

I'll work on the other three schools soon.

[EttaFan1]

BW's pitchers against RR opponents....

Player	w	l	sv	ip	h	r	er	era	bb	k	hr	WHIP	K/BB	K/9
Waite	1	0	0	13.3	11	4	1	0.67	5	5	0	1.20	1.00	3.37
Albright	1	2	0	21.3	26	14	13	5.48	7	14	1	1.55	2.00	5.91
Capodona	1	1	0	17.0	22	14	10	5.29	7	4	0	1.71	0.57	2.12
Alioto	1	0	0	9.3	8	5	5	4.82	9	8	0	1.82	0.89	7.71
Cichocki	1	0	1	10.0	5	3	2	1.80	3	7	0	0.80	2.33	6.30
Heffernan	1	1	0	13.3	19	9	8	5.40	1	11	0	1.50	11.00	7.43
Durbin	0	0	0	6.7	4	1	0	0.00	0	1	0	0.60	—	1.35
Wittles	0	1	0	10.3	6	7	7	6.10	11	9	1	1.65	0.82	7.84
Loeffler	0	0	0	3.7	6	2	1	2.45	3	2	0	2.45	0.67	4.91
Murphy	1	0	0	3.3	5	6	2	5.40	2	1	1	2.10	0.50	2.70
Taricska	0	0	0	2.0	4	4	4	18.00	0	3	3	2.00	—	13.50
Zimmerman	0	0	0	5.7	4	4	4	6.35	5	6	0	1.59	1.20	9.53
Fodor	1	1	0	2.3	4	3	3	11.57	1	1	0	2.14	1.00	3.86
Totals	8	6	1	118.3	124	76	60	4.56	54	72	6	1.50	1.33	5.48

[Spence]

Looking forward to the others. Just hope Ettafan isn't giving away too much info here!

[EttaFan1]

John Carroll's pitching numbers against Regionally ranked opponents.  15 games. 5-10.

Player	w	l	sv	ip	h	r	er	era	bb	k	hr	WHIP	K/BB	K/9
LaPaglia	0	2	0	11.0	19	11	11	9.00	2	6	0	1.91	3.0	4.91
Maddern	1	1	0	20.3	26	15	12	5.31	3	16	3	1.43	5.3	7.08
Materise	2	2	0	20.0	28	19	16	7.20	1	16	3	1.45	16.0	7.20
Doring	1	2	0	14.7	13	9	8	4.91	5	7	0	1.23	1.4	4.30
Turosky	0	1	1	11.3	19	15	12	9.53	5	6	0	2.12	1.2	4.76
Libertini	0	0	0	4.7	7	6	6	11.57	3	1	1	2.14	0.3	1.93
Feretti	0	0	0	9.7	13	9	6	5.59	3	5	1	1.66	1.7	4.66
Rosinski	0	0	0	3.7	4	3	3	7.36	2	3	0	1.64	1.5	7.36
Spagna	1	1	0	9.3	3	7	6	5.79	9	3	0	1.29	0.3	2.89
Vargo	0	0	1	7.7	10	6	5	5.87	4	2	0	1.83	0.5	2.35
Verner	0	1	0	6.0	5	2	0	0.00	3	3	0	1.33	1.0	4.50
Donegan	0	0	0	3.3	15	10	10	27.00	0	2	2	4.50	—	5.40
Perotti	0	0	0	1.0	5	3	3	27.00	0	1	0	5.00	—	9.00
Zallatel	0	0	0	1.0	1	1	0	0.00	0	1	0	1.00	—	9.00
Team	5	10	2	123.7	168	116	98	7.13	40	72	10	1.68	1.8	5.24

Not sure what I'm giving away, here.  Publically available data that anyone with reasonable excel skills can extract.

These numbers were a little surprising to me in many ways.

[EttaFan1]

Finally, Marietta's numbers.  Marietta has played 19 game against regionally ranked opponents and are 12-7.

Player	w	l	sv	ip	h	r	er	era	bb	k	hr	WHIP	K/BB	K/9
Byers	4	0	1	33.3	31	12	12	3.24	9	25	1	1.20	2.78	6.75
Herstine	3	1	0	35.7	27	11	6	1.51	14	26	0	1.15	1.86	6.56
Neberding	2	1	0	21.0	26	12	11	4.71	4	8	0	1.43	2.00	3.43
Finlan	0	2	0	12.3	16	7	2	1.46	2	0	0	1.46	0.00	0.00
Luyster	0	1	0	11.3	12	12	10	7.94	4	7	1	1.41	1.75	5.56
Fulton	0	1	2	14.7	12	5	4	2.45	7	11	0	1.30	1.57	6.75
Janus	1	0	0	9.0	2	2	2	2.00	4	7	0	0.67	1.75	7.00
Antill	0	0	1	4.0	1	2	0	0.00	0	2	0	0.25	—	4.50
Crowl	1	1	0	13.7	21	11	10	6.59	3	6	0	1.76	2.00	3.95
Kirsch	0	0	0	3.3	7	5	4	10.80	1	2	0	2.40	2.00	5.40
McNabb	1	0	0	4.3	5	2	2	4.15	2	2	0	1.62	1.00	4.15
Sowinski	0	0	0	0.7	1	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	1.50	—	0.00
Annett	0	0	0	1.7	1	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	1.20	0.00	0.00
Team	12	7	4	165.0	162	81	63	3.44	51	96	2	1.29	1.88	5.24

So the staff's in total look like this:

Team	Wins	Losses	runs/G	ERA	WHIP	K/BB	K/9
Marietta	12	7	4.26	3.44	1.29	1.88	5.24
Berg	11	6	6.7	4.65	1.57	1.47	6.10
JCU	5	10	7.73	7.13	1.68	1.8	5.24
BW	8	6	5.42	4.56	1.50	1.33	5.48

Make of it what you will.