BB: OAC: Ohio Athletic Conference

Dr. Acula · April 28, 2015, 07:00:36 AM

That's why I said the OAC tournament is going to be interesting. I don't think anyone really has more than 2 reliable pitchers. JCU arguably has 3, but there are definitely no dominant staffs this season. Not even close.

And beyond that, when we look at the regional you can add Wooster to that list too. Their pitching is shaky too.

EttaFan1 · April 28, 2015, 08:53:47 AM

IF there is anything to be learned from Marietta's success in 2011 and 2012 is that you better have three quality starters in your rotation and a strong bullpen. I haven't seen more than 1-2 quality starters on any OAC team this year. At times Marietta's #2 throws pretty well, at times not. JCU probably has the deepest pitching staff with Doring, Maddern, and Lapaglia. Heidelberg, if they would regularly use Hendrixson as a starter, would have two very good arms in their rotation. Marietta has Herstine and sometimes someone else throws very well, and sometimes they don't. I actually thought BW's staff, with Waite returning, would be much better than they are. Waite has struggled this year. He was dominant a year ago, this year not so much. Otterbein's top guy is hurt. Eltzroth came into the DH with Marietta with impressive numbers and got shelled. Even Herstine has struggled at times during the year.

I'm left to wonder if you can assign the change in the ball (flat seams) as the reason why pitching has been somewhat disappointing this season. I think of a guy like Waite and how good he was last year and all of the sudden he has a 6+ ERA. Perhaps it is harder to throw an effective breaking pitch. Some guys still do, and they are the ones who are still throwing very well. But there are some who haven't adapted as well. So when you don't have three or four guys with plus fastballs, your staff is going to stuggle.

This is just purely observational and not necessarily a complaint, per se (because if there is anything all fans can agree on it is the gentleman who adjudicate the strike zone), but I offer it for discussion. Has the enforcement of the strike zone changed or been emphasized a different way? Has there been an emphasis on the strike zone to the point where it is a little "tighter" than it has been in the past few years? Less "extended" black on either side of the plate, a preference for higher strikes, etc? The reason I put this out for discussion is this. Marietta's philosophy has been pretty consistent the past few years. It seems like some of those pitches which would have been strikes in the past few years are not this year.

Just some thoughts.

Dr. Acula · April 30, 2015, 11:53:52 AM

Since there is a chance this could happen...has it ever happened before that a team doesn't even make the OAC tournament, but gets an at-large bid? If BW sweeps Cap Saturday they'd be 30-8 and ranked regionally (and in the top 10 nationally in the poll), but could be left out of the OAC tournament via tiebreaker at 12-6. I think their resume gets them into a regional, but I would think that's quite a rarity to do so in a year you don't even finish in the top 4 in the OAC.

EttaFan1 · April 30, 2015, 02:13:28 PM

Don't know about this. I suppose it has happened, but how recently I don't know.

Personally I think BW is going to be in the OAC tournament. I think the run differential situation for them is very favorable if they win both games. The math would not work particularly well for ONU if they split games with Heidelberg. By my unofficial calculations, if BW and ONU end up tied (meaning ONU Splits). The "magic" run differential number for BW over Capital is +6 to tie and +7 to break the tie. In other words, if ONU splits a pair of 1 run games (run differential of zero), BW needs to beat cap twice by a combined 6 runs to go to the next tie breaker (vote of coaches I believe), and 7 to break the tie. Remember the MAXIMUM margin considered is 7 runs, so a 10 run margin only counts as a differential of 7. A bad situation for ONU would be to lose the first game by 7+ and then win by 1. That's a differential of -6, now BW only has to win a pair of 1 run games to break the tie.

ONU Splits and the combined margin is..... BW must win two games by a combined margin of.....
-6 (1 run win, 7 run loss) 2
-5 2
-4 3
-3 4
-2 5
-1 6
0 7
1 8 (There are combinations to get to 8 runs, but remember a 14 run win and a 1 run win is still 7+1)
2 9
3 10
4 11
5 12
6 (7 run win, 1 run loss) 13

Then ask yourself the same question with respect to ONU. Do they have a good enough resume to get an at large bid if they don't make the OAC tournament?

motorman · April 30, 2015, 05:20:02 PM

I doubt that it has happened. Last year was unusual in that 3 OAC teams got at large bids (all of whom made the tournament), so I doubt there has been a year that a team didn't make the tournament and had a good enough resume to get an at large bid.

EttaFan1 · May 01, 2015, 08:21:09 AM

Based on where they are currently ranked (#2) in the regional rankings AND that their SOS is really good (#20), BW is a mortal lock to make the NCAA tournament field even if they don't make the OAC playoffs. I really think the OAC gets 4 teams in again this year. They should be 29-8 after today when they sweep Capital.

I think Berg is a lock as well.

I think two of the remaining three will make it between JCU, Marietta and Northern. Northern's games against Berg on Saturday are big for a host of reasons. I think they need to win at least one to help their regional resume (SOS is 111, fwiw). JCU's SOS is 29th and Marietta's is 4th . Just my opinion.

Dr. Acula · May 01, 2015, 09:30:43 AM

BW beat Pitt-Bradford yesterday to get to 29-8 so a sweep today puts them at a very strong 31-8. I agree, I think Berg and BW are locks for at-large bids regardless of how the OAC tournament plays out.

I would love to see as many OAC teams get in as possible so once the OAC tourney field is set my rooting interests will align with getting as many OAC teams in as possible. Sorry motorman, but that probably means I need to root against Berg! We need Etta or JCU to win the tourney probably.

motorman · May 01, 2015, 09:57:20 AM

Berg rebounded yesterday with a 12-9 win over LaRoche. Wonder how they address the games against ONU when they only have to win 1 to clinch hosting.

ImpartialObserver · May 01, 2015, 11:53:45 AM

Quote from: EttaFan1 on April 27, 2015, 09:28:10 AM
Tounament scenarios as I understand them.

For top seed.

Berg clinches top seed wit a win against ONU on Saturday.

If ONU sweeps (assuming JCU also sweeps), that would force a thee way tie. JCU would still be out. According to page 5 of the handbook http://www.oac.org/information/Handbook/Sports_Guideline/BASEBALL_-updated_-10-22-14-.pdf.

ONU would be 3-1 in those four games,
Berg would be 2-2 in those four games,
and JCU would be 1-3 in those four games.

So an ONU sweep means ONU is the top seed, Berg, 2, and JCU the third.

The other spots....

We will assume for a moment that JCU will sweep Muskingum (in New Concord), Marietta will sweep Wilmington (in Marietta), and BW will sweep Capital (in bexley).

How does the ONU vs Berg Series impact the playoff picture?

ONU sweeps Berg (see above)

1. ONU 13-5
2. Berg 13-5
3. JCU 13-5
4. MAR 12-6
4. BW. 12-6

In this situation, Marietta wins the two team tiebreaker with BW by virtue of Marietta's split against Berg, and Berg's sweeping BW. Both Marietta and BW split with Northern.

ONU and Berg Split.

1. Berg 14-4
2. JCU 13-5
3. MAR 12-6
3. ONU 12-6
3. BW 12-6

Marietta, ONU and BW all split with each other, so they are all 2-2 in the scenario mentioned in item 3 on page 5 of the handbook.

So the next tiebreaker is run differential in OAC games (with a max of 7 runs considered). Through the games played as of Sunday, the average run differential for the three tied teams is as follows:

1. Marietta 2.69
2. ONU 1.5
3. BW 1.0

So the tournament would likely be 1. Berg vs 4. ONU, 2. JCU vs. 3. Mar.

By the way, the score differential margin is RAZOR thin, especially between ONU and BW. The results from this weekend will have a significant impact on this metric between BW and ONU.

Berg sweeps ONU

1. Berg 15-3
2. JCU 13-5
3. MAR 12-6
3. BW 12-6

5. ONU 11-7

As Mentioned before, according to item 2, Marietta wins the tie breaker with BW.

Now if JCU gacks one against Muskingum and BW and Marietta both win their two this weekend....

IF ONU wins 1, it forces a four way tie for 2nd. BW, MAR, JCU, and ONU all split with each other and would be 3-3 in the four team pool. Run differentials look like this (so far).

MAR 2.69
JCU 1.59
ONU 1.5
BW 1.0

SO the seeding then becomes...

1. Berg vs. 4 ONU, 2. MAR vs. 3. JCU 5. BW

if ONU sweeps Berg, it goes like this...

1. ONU vs. 4 JCU, 2. Berg vs. 3. MAR.

If Berg sweeps ONU, it goes like this:

1. Berg, 2. MAR, 3. JCU, 4. BW.

If EITHER BW or MAR split this weekend....

If BW splits, they HAVE to hope for a BERG sweep over ONU on Saturday....

BW would have the two team tie breaker over ONU, by virtue of BW's sweep of Mount (ONU Split).

If MAR splits, they have to hope either BW also splits or Berg sweeps ONU.

MAR would have the two team tie breaker over ONU, by virtue of MAR's split with Berg. Marietta has the two team tie breaker over BW.

It is all as clear as mud right....

So here is what you are cheering for if you are fan of one of these five teams....

1. Berg. Win one and host. It is that simple, You are in the tournament no matter what.
2. ONU. Don't get swept. Being swept is all kinds of bad and it sends you home.
3. JCU. Win two and keep your seed higher. You can't claim the top spot, so you are playing for a seed.
4. MAR. Win two and you are in the tournament....To be sure, win big over a bad Wilmington squad.
5. BW Win two, run it up if you can, and hope for some help from Heidelberg (at least one win, preferably two)

The run differential difference between BW and ONU is razor thin right now, the scores from the weekend's games can have an impact on the outcome.

Disclaimer: This is computed based on how I interpret the handbook (linked above). It is not official, and it might be incorrect. There are probably some unlikely scenarios not considered (like Wilmington sweeping Marietta for example). IN any event, the playoff chase is a hot mess.

As stated in the OAC manual, the second tie breaker is how the tied teams fared against the top team and works its way down until the tie is broken. In the case of an ONU split with Heidelberg, ONU would win the tie breaker with BW because ONU would be 1-1 against Berg and BW would be 0-2. Run differential is the 5th tie breaker and would not need to be considered in this situation. I appreciate all the work EttaFan did to calculate the run differentials but it won't come into play.

If ONU splits with Heidelberg, BW would be out and ONU would be the 4 seed.

Last season ONU was tied with BW for the 4th spot in the OAC tournament. ONU went 0-2 against Marietta and BW split which gave BW the tiebreaker. ONU wasn't given an at large bid on the sole reason that they didn't make the conference tournament. ONU was in the regional rankings the week of the conference tournament and dropped out of the regional rankings without playing a game the next week. If BW ends up out of the OAC tournament this year the same thing will be the case.

I do not believe this should be the case, but a precedent was set last year. It will be interesting to see what happens.

EttaFan1 · May 01, 2015, 01:38:38 PM

Wow....It is like I was looking for the curve ball and the guy threw the heater right past me.

My bad. You are absolutely right, I overthought it and missed the obvious.

Pops33 · May 01, 2015, 03:04:40 PM

It will also depend on if Wooster wins the NCAC tournament. If another team gets the NCAC automatic bid, then Wooster is thrown in to that same conversation and muddies the waters even more. Wooster lost to ONU and BW, but have victories against JCU, Berg, and Marietta. It is probably difficult for most OAC fans to root for Wooster, but them winning the NCAC tournament would be best for the teams in the OAC.

mideastfan2 · May 02, 2015, 08:00:26 AM

Quote from: Pops33 on May 01, 2015, 03:04:40 PM
It will also depend on if Wooster wins the NCAC tournament. If another team gets the NCAC automatic bid, then Wooster is thrown in to that same conversation and muddies the waters even more. Wooster lost to ONU and BW, but have victories against JCU, Berg, and Marietta. It is probably difficult for most OAC fans to root for Wooster, but them winning the NCAC tournament would be best for the teams in the OAC.

That may have been the case in years past, but the committe these days isn't afraid to ship teams to other regionals.

motorman · May 02, 2015, 02:17:21 PM

Berg up 4-0 after 6 behind a dominant performance by Adam Manner and an inside the park home run by Derek Hug.

motorman · May 02, 2015, 03:02:08 PM

The OAC Tournament will be in Tiffin after an 8-1 victory over ONU. Adam Manner throws a comets game, losing the shut out on a solo homer in the 9th.

Dr. Acula · May 02, 2015, 07:26:19 PM

Up 15-5 after 7, Mount loses the lead and trails 16-15 headed to the bottom of the 9th. They get a 2 out triple to score a pair and walk off with the sweep. Had to have been a fun way to end the season.

Toma was great against Ott in game 1 going 7.2 IP in the 5-1 win. He finishes 9-1 with a 2.86 ERA. Great season for the junior.

Raiders finished 22-14, 10-8. Honestly, with Clarke pitching 1 inning and Ceriani none I am proud of how they played. The only DH they were overmatched was JCU and that was the opener. They were right there with anyone in the conference and that impresses me given what they graduated and the injuries.