BB: OAC: Ohio Athletic Conference

[Dr. Acula]

Here's a question of strategy for this weekend...

Mariotti is clearly MUC's ace.  He's 6-1 including wins at Etta and JCU.  His lone defeat was a 2-1 loss to Musky in which he went 6.1 allowing 1 ER.  Remenowsky is clearly Ott's ace and I think we all know what he's bringing to the mound.  If you're MUC's coach do you consider starting Mariotti in game 2?       

[fundamentalswin]

I think that move is a no-brainer... Now with this move I am assuming that JCU isnt going to sweep Berg in the Peaceful Valley.  Berg is 9-2 at home this year and is competing for home field through the tournament.  If you have to win one game dont try and do it against the other ace.  MUC has some depth and otterbein has struggled at the plate during certain points in the year.  I look at it this way.  If MUC wins game one without mariotti on the mound then they are in a great position to sweep and move into the 3 spot for the tournament with mariotti on the mound game two.  If MUC loses game one then who else do you want on the mound if you NEED one win to get in.  I would want my ace out there giving me the best chance if I only had to win one game on the day.  Now if you are in the camp that believes that JCU will sweep Berg @ Peaceful valley then MUC's game plan is completely flawed

[mideastfan2]

My opinion, and I've seen this situation many times.....throw your ACE in the short 7 inning game.  If you're going to steal a game on the road against the hottest team in the OAC, it's going to be the short game.   You need to be confident that your ACE is going to be just that, an ACE, and shut down Otterbein.  If your offense can't score a few runs off Remenowksi, then how are they going to score runs in the OAC tournament if they make it in??

Let it all hang out there and PLAY TO WIN one game; the first one.  If it doesn't work out, then your "depth" will come in handy in game two when you NEED to win to hopefully advance.  Never save your ACE in hopes that he comes through in a desperate situation, b/c if he doesn't, then you just gave away TWO games.

[Dr. Acula]

I was hoping we would get differing opinions on this!  fundamentalswin, I absolutely agree that if you need to win 1 game to get in there's no other choice than Mariotti.  But FAR crazier things have happened this year than JCU sweeping Heidelberg so I feel like you have to assume the worst if you're MUC.  Based on that I would probably agree w/ mideastfan2 and stick with Mariotti in the short game.  By throwing him in game 2 you are all but removing the possibility of him throwing a complete game.  If he's my horse, I'm giving him the best chance to go the distance and carry us into the tourney.  Even if it is against Remenowsky (gulp).  I think it's actually Otterbein's depth that will be the issue in game 2.  With Stevens (who just threw 9 inn against Cap) and Williams, Taylor, etc. they have A LOT of quality arms to throw at you over 9 innings.  I'm not as familiar with MUC's staff beyond that I know that Thomas and Irwin have been solid.  I'm guessing those will be the main guys we will see.

[fundamentalswin]

I guess I can see that side of the arugument especially if JCU were to sweep Berg.  If that happens I would really put MUC in a bind on getting in the tourney but I just dont see that happening.  I guess I am not sold on JCU.  I am not sold on MUC either but after seeing them play each other last weekend I was really confused on how  they have got to this point in the year.  I was not impressed at all with their lineup... not alot for power and the only potent weapon was their leadoff hitter who can just cause all sorts of problems.  I was even more confused on their two starters.  From what I grasped they were JCU two best and I was baffled on how they have a top 10 ERA in the country.  MUC has issues too.  Right now they have a depth issues at pitching with an injury and poor overall performance but there is a glimmer of hope.  They have got some solid relief outings as of late and if they are managed right their bullpen numbers could be alot better than they reflect currently.  MUC also can be jekel and hyde at the plate.  Somedays all their top 6 hitters show up other days 2 of the top 6 hitters show up.  But MUC's back was against the wall last saturday and they went to JCU on senior day played well and swept.  Their backs are against the wall again on saturday because I think they will need one win against a team that has won 13 of 15.  So I guess after all of that here is my argument. 
IS MUC's #1 better than OC's #1?  Answer: Push at best and history says adavantage OC.
Is MUC's #1 better than OC's #2?  Answer: Advantage MUC. 
Is MUC's #2 better than OC's #2?  Answer: Advantage OC.

So strategy wise the win one game approach I think is the best strategy out there for two reasons.  You cant go to OC and lose both and miss the tournament after you start the year 7-1 in conference when you as a coach could prevent this by making a matchup choice.  You also cant go to OC lose both and back into the tourney with no confidence against the teams in the tournament (if this happens MUC would be 1-5 against teams in the tournament).  If you can prevent both of those by making a matchup choice then I think you make the change.  MUC has got burnt before by not making crucial coaching decisions in crunch time.  I would rather be proactive in trying to get a split than be passive.

Great discussion by the way

[Dr. Acula]

^^^^Now that's a post!  Nice job fundamentalswin.  I actually had to go get a drink before I dove in.

I'm totally with you that I don't see JCU sweeping the Berg.  But I also would never have said BW would sweep Ott or Musky would sweep MUC.  The latter of which, by the way, will be what haunts the Raiders if they miss the tourney. 

That sounds like a classic JCU team.  You'll rarely find them raking from top to bottom, but they usually have solid pitching and execute the little things to win games.  Evanko and Fort are their top 2 and with good reason.  If you can run those 2 out there, given their season's work as a whole, you have to give them a chance to sweep Saturday. 

I absolutely agree that the pitching depth is a concern for MUC.  Who is injured?  Hopefully nothing serious in any event.  Aren't 2 of the top 6 hitters freshmen?  I would expect them to be inconsistent, but people like Warner need to be the constants.   

[oacfan]

Do we know whats going on with Heidleberg and JCU???... Marietta is washed out they will play ONU tomorrow at 1

[mideastfan2]

^^^^ no clue.  Neither team updates their website very quickly....and I'm not sure if they're even playing today b/c of weather.

Otterbein and Mount are in the 5th inning and OTT leads 5-0. 

**** side note - Mount is throwing their ACE in game one vs Remenowski....kinda what I thought would happen, as previously discussed.  Doesn't look like it really matters, as Mariotti has given up 5 runs in the first 4 innings.  Mount will have to win game two to most likely get into the tournament.

[mideastfan2]

Otterbein wins game one over Mount Union.

Mount leads game two 8-3 in the 8th inning. (if Mount holds on for the win, they are the #4 seed in the tournament)


___________________________________________

Heidelberg wins game one over John Carroll.

Game two is in a rain delay.

[oacfan]

JCU leads game two i believe??? not sure though

[mideastfan2]

Mount now leads 10-6 in the 9th inning.  If they hold on, which they most likely will, then John Carroll will only be playing spoiler.  A JCU win could give Marietta the opportunity to host with a sweep tomorrow.

Regardless, the OAC tournament field will be set with Marietta, Heidelberg, Otterbein, Mount Union.  The seeding will be determined after the Marietta results (and the 2nd Heidelberg game results).

Congrats to Mount Union for coming back to win game two and getting into the tournament as the #4 seed!!

[mideastfan2]

Otterbein and Mount Union split.

Heidelberg swept JCU.

The tournament field is set, and will be hosted by Heidelberg.

(1) Heidelberg
(2 or 3) Marietta
(2 or 3) Otterbein
(4) Mount Union

The #2 and #3 seeds will be determined after Marietta's games against ONU.  If MAR wins one game, they are the #2 seed.  Regardless, they will play OTT in the first game of the OAC Tournament.....and HEID will play MOUNT.

[mideastfan2]

Marietta took game one over ONU.

The tournament field is set:

(1) HEID
(2) MAR
(3) OTT
(4) MOUNT

I think this tournament could be really competitive.  All four teams have very solid #1 starters, and somewhat deep pitching staffs.   Whoever wins the tournament and represents the OAC in the regional will be very qualified.

My early pick is with Marietta; then again I think MAR, HEID, and OTT are all about equal and any of them could win three in a row if their bats get hot.

[Dr. Acula]

I would have to agree mideastfan2.  This year's field is very competitive.  The Etta/Ott match up is intriguing.  I feel like those are the 2 teams best equipped to survive an opening loss.  And the last time Paddock and Mariotti faced off the game went 11 innings, so that should be fun. 

Kudos to MUC for rebounding from a 12-0 loss and hitting the ball well in the nightcap.  Big homers from Warner and Ferrell late for MUC.  Ferrell and Lash (Heid) are going to be fun to watch considering both are freshmen making a big impact already.

Talk about a tough pill to swallow for JCU.  Fort and Evanko gave them a chance to sweep, but they just coudn't quite seal it.  As usual, Heid got good pitching and timely hitting.  Guess that's why they're hosting...   

[Dr. Acula]

Does anyone (fundamentalswin?) know why Thomas went 3 innings for MUC and then Irwin came in?  Didn't know if that was planned, Thomas got injured or they just made the switch because the coaching staff didn't think he was throwing well.  Just curious.