MBB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[smedindy]

Transy could host over Wooster because of geography. We'll have to see how the die is cast.

[ScotsFan]

Transy could host over Wooster because of geography. We'll have to see how the die is cast.

IMO, this is the only criteria Transy has going for them.  Guess we'll see just how big of a part geography is weighed in by the selection committee.  If Transy is selected to host over Wooster, we'll know it weighs pretty heavily...

[KnightSlappy]

Transy could host over Wooster because of geography. We'll have to see how the die is cast.

IMO, this is the only criteria Transy has going for them.  Guess we'll see just how big of a part geography is weighed in by the selection committee.  If Transy is selected to host over Wooster, we'll know it weighs pretty heavily...

They also have winning percentage in their favor. No small piece of criteria there. And a 3-0 record versus regionally ranked.

IMO, these two teams are as even as you could make them.

[Gregory Sager]

Transy ranks ahead of Wooster in three of the five primary criteria (in-region winning percentage, in-region results versus regionally-ranked teams, and in-region results versus common opponents), with a fourth (head-to-head) not being applicable.

Wooster has the quantity in terms of vRRO (4-3), but Transy has the quality (3-0). In terms of common opponents, Transy is 5-1 (wins over Wabash, Anderson (3x), and Defiance, loss to Defiance), while Wooster is 3-1 (wins over Defiance, Wabash, and Anderson, loss to Wabash).

The chances of Transy being picked ahead of Wooster to host are better than you think they are, ScotsFan.

[sac]

I don't think its a head-to-head who hosts question with Transy and Wooster.  It's more of a solving a geography problem question and merit.

Prior to the NCAC finals it was difficult seeing a pod in Lexington and one in Springfield.  With Wooster winning its gives the Ohio area a legitimate host site far enough away from Holland and Lexington where all 3 could be hosts and still have plenty of teams to choose from for all 3 sites.

They could very well take Transylvania and put them on the road to Wooster or Holland or Washington.  Its really about what 4 teams they select for the pods and who has the seed and the geographic location to host.  Lexington is a decent location.  Had  Centre made the field I think it might have been a lock to host but not now.


Recent NCAA pairing history has shown a willingness to move teams around and be somewhat creative.  I think there's a small chance Wooster gets put in a pod with teams like Medaille and a couple other from NY or PA.  In that case Wooster may not be the central location to host the pod and it may go to someone like Medaille.

Most times the NCAA does a good job making sure the higher seeds get the best possible opportunity to host.  But not always, sometimes geography is the key factor.

[sac]

Using this:  http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msid=201288344535022760091.0004b9cf822bd1249d87b&msa=0

I count 27 teams West of Pennsylvania in the D3 tournament.  Even if we use 2 byes in this half of the country we would still need to pull 3 teams into the area to make a 30 team bracket.

Therefore imo, a couple teams are going to be paired with teams from NY and PA.  Wooster and Bethany are the logical choices here being the furthest East, but neither would be a good host site in that scenario because of geography.

This is really all I'm saying about Wooster and its chances for hosting.  For me it really has nothing to do with a comparison to Transylvania.

[wooscotsfan]

Using this:  http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msid=201288344535022760091.0004b9cf822bd1249d87b&msa=0

I count 27 teams West of Pennsylvania in the D3 tournament.  Even if we use 2 byes in this half of the country we would still need to pull 3 teams into the area to make a 30 team bracket.

Therefore imo, a couple teams are going to be paired with teams from NY and PA.  Wooster and Bethany are the logical choices here being the furthest East, but neither would be a good host site in that scenario because of geography.

This is really all I'm saying about Wooster and its chances for hosting.  For me it really has nothing to do with a comparison to Transylvania.

sac - excellent point about the NCAA needing to fill out and balance the entire bracket...all while minimizing their travel costs.

It may not come down to Wooster vs. Transy for hosting if the geographic balancing is the overriding factor.  In fact, the MIAA champ in recent years has been paired with Midwest (Illinois, Wisconsin) teams probably for this very reason.

While you mention 27 teams west of Pennsylvania, I actually think that the NCAA has to come up with 15 or 16 teams in each region that balance geographically while minimizing travel.  Last year, the NCAA paired Whitworth with Wooster in the same region to balance the bracket.  It will be interesting to see how it plays out this year.

Each year, the NCAA has too many teams in the northeast part of the country (>16) so they have to "push" teams further west and/or south to balance the regions in the bracket all while minimizing flights.  Yes, there is also a chance that Wooster will have to travel east if they are not hosting.

[Gregory Sager]

Oh, I absolutely agree that geography (i.e., travel expen$e$ that're charged to the NCAA"s bank account) is the overriding concern of the committee when the bracket is assembled tomorrow. I was simply pointing out that ScotsFan's assertion that Wooster should get seeding priority over Transylvania is not the hands-down, cut-and-dried, slam-dunk case he thinks it is. The primary criteria actually slightly favor Transy, if anything ... although I agree with the Dean of KnightSlappy U. that the committee could go either way if it had to choose one or the other as a first-weekend host based strictly upon the merits.

[woosterbooster]

It seems to me, from observation, that there is another, if undisclosed, criteria.  Taking turns.  Wooster, unless I'm misremembering, was a host in both rounds last year.  I think it likely that if it's a close call, and it probably is, they will not get that chance this time around.

[smedindy]

I think you're confusing the NCAC and the NCAA.

The NCAC has everyone share POW and sing camp songs with smores and apple juice.

The NCAA is a cold, heartless, cruel master.

[wooscotsfan]

I think you're confusing the NCAC and the NCAA.

The NCAC has everyone share POW and sing camp songs with smores and apple juice.

The NCAA is a cold, heartless, cruel master.

Smed - you are correct.  Here is another factor on Wooster's side from the NCAA perspective - 3,330. 

What is 3,330?  It was the attendance in Timken gym last season when Wooster hosted Whitworth.  The NCAA loves a larger gate for tourney games because it brings in more revenue to offset the travel costs that they have to fund!

[sac]

It seems to me, from observation, that there is another, if undisclosed, criteria. Taking turns.  Wooster, unless I'm misremembering, was a host in both rounds last year.  I think it likely that if it's a close call, and it probably is, they will not get that chance this time around.

Before the pools stuff we used to alternate hosting sites between regions when we reached the Sweet 16 level.  Back then the brackets were exclusively by region.  One year one region would host regardless of seed, the next the other region would host regardless of seed.

GL-South
MW-West

Then a couple years later
GL-West
MW-South

It worked for the most part, but did produce some lengthy road trips and the odd occasion when a lower seed was hosting very high seeds from the other region.  Eventually the NCAA decided costs should be watched more closely and then instituted the 500 mile guideline for flights which made it pretty much impossible to rotate regions the way they had.

[sac]

Using this:  http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msid=201288344535022760091.0004b9cf822bd1249d87b&msa=0

I count 27 teams West of Pennsylvania in the D3 tournament.  Even if we use 2 byes in this half of the country we would still need to pull 3 teams into the area to make a 30 team bracket.

Therefore imo, a couple teams are going to be paired with teams from NY and PA.  Wooster and Bethany are the logical choices here being the furthest East, but neither would be a good host site in that scenario because of geography.

This is really all I'm saying about Wooster and its chances for hosting.  For me it really has nothing to do with a comparison to Transylvania.

sac - excellent point about the NCAA needing to fill out and balance the entire bracket...all while minimizing their travel costs.

It may not come down to Wooster vs. Transy for hosting if the geographic balancing is the overriding factor.  In fact, the MIAA champ in recent years has been paired with Midwest (Illinois, Wisconsin) teams probably for this very reason.

While you mention 27 teams west of Pennsylvania, I actually think that the NCAA has to come up with 15 or 16 teams in each region that balance geographically while minimizing travel.  Last year, the NCAA paired Whitworth with Wooster in the same region to balance the bracket.  It will be interesting to see how it plays out this year.

Each year, the NCAA has too many teams in the northeast part of the country (>16) so they have to "push" teams further west and/or south to balance the regions in the bracket all while minimizing flights.  Yes, there is also a chance that Wooster will have to travel east if they are not hosting.

You could even take just the 27 teams and make 7, 4 team pods with one bye and pull 1 4 team pod from the 'east' to make your 1/2 of the bracket.  Recently though the NCAA has moved teams around nicely within the first couple rounds and I think they'll try to do that rather than take an easy route.

[kiltedbryan]

There are plenty of instances where Pool C teams have hosted.  Being a Pool C team won't be what keeps Transylvania from hosting.

Criteria(ie seed) and geography are always the two biggest factors.

I'm not saying that Transy won't host solely because they are a C.  I just don't think they compare favorably to Wooster head to head.  Transy has one fewer regional loss, but none of their losses are to regionally ranked opponents.  Also, Transy has only one win over a regionally ranked opponent as far as I can tell.  Wooster, on the other hand, has one more regional loss than Transy, but 3 of their 4 losses are to regionally ranked teams.  Also, Wooster also has 3 wins over regionally ranked teams.  Also, Wooster will likely be ranked 2nd in the final GL regional ranking.  Meanwhile, Transy was already only 3rd in the last MW regional rankings and will likely drop in the final MW regional ranking.  To me, Wooster stacks up much better in a lot of areas than Transy does.

FWIW, I'm completely unconvinced on this point. Here's the relevant information from Greek Tragedy's Pool C listings:

GL                                                           
   WK3   TEAM         CON.         REG/OVERALL         WL%         SOS         RvsRR         SCHEDULE   
   #2   Wittenberg*         NCAC         18-4, 20-5         0.818         0.539          6-1         WON vs Kenyon 73-61, LOST vs Denison 66-58   
   #3   Wooster         NCAC         19-4,21-4         0.826         0.522          3-3         WON vs DePauw 59-51, WON vs Ohio Wesleyan 89-80, WON vs Denison 53-51   

Let's look at the primary criteria:

1) in-region winning percentage: slight edge to Wooster
2) in-region SOS: edge to Wittenberg
3) in-region results vs. regionally ranked teams: huge edge to Wittenberg...not even close
4) head-to-head results: 2-0 Wittenberg, who swept Wooster this year; huge edge to Wittenberg...again, not even close
5) in-region results vs. common opponents: not sure, but probably roughly a wash; probably close to the overall in-region records

So Wittenberg has a distinct and significant advantage over Wooster in 2 categories, and has a clear lead in another, with Wooster having a small edge in one, and one category is probably a wash. Losing in your conference semifinal to a non-regionally ranked team isn't a criteria.

I don't see how Wooster gets slotted ahead of Wittenberg in the final GL regional ranking. The head-to-head and the vRRO is just too strong to ignore I think.

I think Wooster's only hosting rights would be if Wooster is geographically better than Wittenberg...I don't think the committee would see the Scots as the higher seed.

[seinfeld]

Here are some random observations of various decisions the NCAA has made during the selection process and after the first two rounds that I've witnessed from Wooster's perspective based on reliable information that may have some bearing on what happens this year

-- Wooster Booster is heading the right direction when he implies that hosting the previous season(s) may work against that same team hosting again. This was probably the #1 reason Wooster had to travel to St. John Fisher in 2007 for the Sectional Round instead of hosting. There was no criteria where St. John Fisher was ahead than Wooster. Throw in the fact that St. John Fisher had a gym about 1/3 the size of Wooster's, and it made even less sense. Having Brockport St. next door probably helped (although John Carroll was only an hour from Wooster and probably would have traveled back and forth). But the biggest reason was the fact that Wooster had hosted the Sectional in both 2003 and & 2004, and they wanted to allow another school to host. This isn't just speculation. This is one of the arguments that was given, since Wooster was pretty surprised by this decision.

-- The fact that we are discussing whether Transylvania or Wooster hosts probably means neither will. I can see Transy going to Witt, and maybe Wooster to Hope? I know this hasn't been the case for years now, but if OWU doesn't get in, I could see Wooster heading up there to play someone else in the first round.

-- If it comes down to Wooster and Transy to host, based solely on numbers, Transy probably has a slight edge. But the X-factor could be the way the committee looks at conference tournaments and their outcomes. I'm not holding this up as overwhelming evidence of how the committee looks at conference tournaments, since this only involves Wooster and it relates to seasons that happened six and seven years ago, but it seems to imply what you do in the conference tournament has more bearing than you might otherwise think.

In 2005, Wooster lost in the NCAC Tournament title game to Witt. It was only their second loss of the season - both coming against regionally-ranked Wittenberg. They entered the NCAA Tournament with a 26-2 record, and was ranked somewhere in the Top 5 before losing to Witt in the conference title game. The result? Wooster had to travel to play (yes, they did host a first-round game, but that was in essence a play-in game to meet Albion up in Michigan). The profiles of Wooster and Albion were pretty close, but Albion won their conference tournament, Wooster didn't.

In 2006, Wooster spent a number of weeks at No. 1 in the polls, and was No. 1 entering the final week of the regular season. They lost the final regular season game to Ohio Wesleyan and then lost the NCAC title game to Witt (a Top-5 team they beat twice during the regular season). The result? Traveling to Transylvania for the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. Wooster had a better profile than Transy, but Transy had won their conference tournament, Wooster didn't.

Compare this to 2004, when Wooster lost three games during the regular season, including twice to Witt, but won the conference tournament. Wooster not only got to host, but they also got a first-round bye. Their second-round opponent Potsdam St. was a much easier matchup than John Carroll, who Wittenberg got stuck with.

In summary, every year Wooster has won the conference tournament since 1999 they have hosted (with the exception of 2009, when Wooster had five Div. III losses heading into the tournament). Every year they haven't won (2002, 2005, 2006) they haven't hosted (or in 2002 didn't make it at all).

So what the hell am I trying to say? I'm trying to say it seems the committee puts a decent amount of stock in how you do in your conference tournament and how you finish down the stretch -- not unlike they do in Div. I. A more recent example of this occurred in 2010. Despite beating Wooster earlier that season and having a very similar profile to Wooster's, John Carroll was sent to Guilford for the first two rounds, while Wooster got to host (Wooster won their conference tournament). I stated at the time I thought Wooster should get to host, despite losing to JCU, because they won 18 of their last 19 games and were a different team entering the tournament than they were in December.

Jump ahead to this year. While Wooster and Transy didn't meet during the season, the rest of the scenario is very similar. Both teams have very similar profiles, with Transy holding a slight "formula" advantage. But if you step away from the "formula" for a minute, you can see something that might lean in Wooster's direction. Since losing back-to-back games in early December, Wooster finished the season winning 19-of-21 games, including a 4-1 record against regionally-ranked teams (5-1 if you count St. Mary's, who is ranked in the Middle Atlantic). This run was capped off by winning the conference championship on the road (on a neutral court in reality, but on the road by definition). Transy, while certainly not slumping, went 13-4 over its final 17 games, and lost two of its last three games, including the conference tournament on its home floor. They only played two games against a regionally ranked opponent (Hanover), winning both.

So in conclusion, if the committee uses the same judgement they have in the past in relation to how you fare in conference tournament and how you finish down the stretch, Wooster probably has a slight edge over Transy. If not, then it is probably the other way around.