MBB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[seinfeld]

FWIW, I'm completely unconvinced on this point. Here's the relevant information from Greek Tragedy's Pool C listings:

GL                                                           
   WK3   TEAM         CON.         REG/OVERALL         WL%         SOS         RvsRR         SCHEDULE   
   #2   Wittenberg*         NCAC         18-4, 20-5         0.818         0.539          6-1         WON vs Kenyon 73-61, LOST vs Denison 66-58   
   #3   Wooster         NCAC         19-4,21-4         0.826         0.522          3-3         WON vs DePauw 59-51, WON vs Ohio Wesleyan 89-80, WON vs Denison 53-51   

Let's look at the primary criteria:

1) in-region winning percentage: slight edge to Wooster
2) in-region SOS: edge to Wittenberg
3) in-region results vs. regionally ranked teams: huge edge to Wittenberg...not even close
4) head-to-head results: 2-0 Wittenberg, who swept Wooster this year; huge edge to Wittenberg...again, not even close
5) in-region results vs. common opponents: not sure, but probably roughly a wash; probably close to the overall in-region records

It should be pointed out that almost all of these numbers have not been updated. Wooster finished 22-4 in the region (.846), while Witt finished 19-5 (.792). Overall, Wooster finished 22-4, Witt 21-6. As for SOS, both teams finished at .522 (according to this). Records vs. regionally ranked opponents end up 6-1 Witt, 4-3 to Wooster. So yes, I think Witt has a better profile than Wooster, but it isn't that wide. The head-to-head just can't be ignored. The only caveat is how much subjectivity the committee applies. Does it see that Witt beat Wooster by one point and then in overtime, coupled with Witt losing the conference tournament in the semifinals on its home floor, and somehow put Wooster ahead? Does it give Wooster credit for beating St. Mary's on a neutral floor and punish Witt for losing at home to Otterbein, who finished 9-17? I doubt it, but it's not impossible.

[ohiofan1954]

Forgive me for asking this question but I am still rather new too the working of the ncaa and how they pick tournament sites. I have only been following d3 basketball for about 5 years so please bear with me. I understand the arguments for the 3 above mentioned schools, they are all good and they would all be worthy choices. However does the ncaa always make their choices based what was accomplished on the court or will may they make a choice based entirely on something else? What I am getting at is could they pick a school for a host site that is not ranked, lost quite a few games compared too the three above and clearly had a inferior year. A selection based entirely on different factors. I am sure some will guess I am speaking of Capital. I know it would not be right but Cap is located in a large metropolitan area, easy access to and from, lots of hotel and other services you might not find in smaller towns. Add to this the Cap center is one of the finest athletic facilities in d3(not the crystal palace of Kenyon but pretty good just the same)and you might have people looking favorably at them. I am not saying this as a Cap fan, believe I am not. I am a Denison and Otterbein fan just to be clear. Still they do have many things in their favor. If I am far off on this please correct me I don't mind. Once again I have not followed d3 long enough to know all the goings on. I do hope either Wooster or Wittenberg would be picked, nothing though surprises me anymore.

[smedindy]

Hosting has always been a reward - you may quibble a bit the hosting but it will always be one of the top teams in the bracket provided they apply to be a host and meet the criteria.

[kiltedbryan]

FWIW, I'm completely unconvinced on this point. Here's the relevant information from Greek Tragedy's Pool C listings:

GL                                                           
   WK3   TEAM         CON.         REG/OVERALL         WL%         SOS         RvsRR         SCHEDULE   
   #2   Wittenberg*         NCAC         18-4, 20-5         0.818         0.539          6-1         WON vs Kenyon 73-61, LOST vs Denison 66-58   
   #3   Wooster         NCAC         19-4,21-4         0.826         0.522          3-3         WON vs DePauw 59-51, WON vs Ohio Wesleyan 89-80, WON vs Denison 53-51   

Let's look at the primary criteria:

1) in-region winning percentage: slight edge to Wooster
2) in-region SOS: edge to Wittenberg
3) in-region results vs. regionally ranked teams: huge edge to Wittenberg...not even close
4) head-to-head results: 2-0 Wittenberg, who swept Wooster this year; huge edge to Wittenberg...again, not even close
5) in-region results vs. common opponents: not sure, but probably roughly a wash; probably close to the overall in-region records

It should be pointed out that almost all of these numbers have not been updated. Wooster finished 22-4 in the region (.846), while Witt finished 19-5 (.792). Overall, Wooster finished 22-4, Witt 21-6. As for SOS, both teams finished at .522 (according to this). Records vs. regionally ranked opponents end up 6-1 Witt, 4-3 to Wooster. So yes, I think Witt has a better profile than Wooster, but it isn't that wide. The head-to-head just can't be ignored. The only caveat is how much subjectivity the committee applies. Does it see that Witt beat Wooster by one point and then in overtime, coupled with Witt losing the conference tournament in the semifinals on its home floor, and somehow put Wooster ahead? Does it give Wooster credit for beating St. Mary's on a neutral floor and punish Witt for losing at home to Otterbein, who finished 9-17? I doubt it, but it's not impossible.

Seinfeld- thanks for pointing that out--I hadn't realized they weren't up-to-date (I saw that the game results for the week were included and assumed the stats were updated).

Now I agree with you that it's more or less a push...Wooster has the winning percentage edge, but Witt retains the head-to-head and the results vs. regionally ranked. I think if I were looking at the five primary criteria I'd still probably slot Witt ahead, based primarily on the head-to-head.

I actually have no idea if the committee sees scores to the games (and so would know that both Witt-Woo games were close)...since margin of victory isn't included in any of the criteria I'd assume not.

[ScotsFan]

Seinfeld- thanks for pointing that out--I hadn't realized they weren't up-to-date (I saw that the game results for the week were included and assumed the stats were updated).

Now I agree with you that it's more or less a push...Wooster has the winning percentage edge, but Witt retains the head-to-head and the results vs. regionally ranked. I think if I were looking at the five primary criteria I'd still probably slot Witt ahead, based primarily on the head-to-head.

I actually have no idea if the committee sees scores to the games (and so would know that both Witt-Woo games were close)...since margin of victory isn't included in any of the criteria I'd assume not.

I realize there are 5 primary criteria that the selection committee goes by and I realize wins vs. regionally ranked opponents are one of those 5 criteria.  But I just have a hard time wondering why losses aren't taken into consideration.  Yes, Witt has done well against regionally ranked opponents including winning 2 over Wooster.  But, Witt also has not done so well vs. non-regionally ranked opponents as 4 of their 5 losses were vs. non-ranked regional opponents and some of those could be considered bad losses (especially the loss to Ott). 

Another area I feel should not be overlooked by the selection committee is how teams finish.  If you look at the Div I tournament, teams on the bubble that struggle down the stretch are looked at less favorably than those that finish strong.  That said, I would think the committee should take into consideration that Transy lost 2 of their last 3 games to finish the season including losing on their home floor in the HCAC Championship game.  Same goes for Witt losing on their home floor in the NCAC semis.  Meanwhile, Wooster went on the road and won the NCAC Championship. 

With things supposedly as close as they are in terms of going by the 5 primary criteria between Witt, Woo and Transy, I think if you look at which of these teams has the worse regional losses combined with who stumbled the most down the stretch, I'd say the edge goes to Wooster.  Add to that the fact that both Wooster and Witt have a better SOS than Transy and I'd say the Pios are hoping geography plays a strong role in hosting. 

[Flying Dutch Fan]

After all that wonderful debate, both Wooster and Transy are hosting (as is Hope)

[imderekpoe]

@ Wooster.  Wooster vs Maryville, Randy-Mac vs Capital
@ Transy.  Witt vs Birmingham-Southern, Transy vs Carroll
@ Cabrini.  OWU vs Hobart, Cabrini vs Castelton State

[sac]

@ Wooster.  Wooster vs Maryville, Randy-Mac vs Capital
@ Transy.  Witt vs Birmingham-Southern, Transy vs Carroll
@ Cabrini.  OWU vs Hobart, Cabrini vs Castelton State

OWU might be a smart pick as a cinderella to make the sweet 16.

[smedindy]

I guess Witt's swoon forced it on the road. Transylvania's not an easy place to play but I think the Old Tigers may have a chance there if they can get past BSC, which may have a chip on its shoulder.

OWU has a pretty favorable draw, since Cabrini is another team that many wags have as over-rated.

The ODAC is down, but Randy-Mac does have some talent and I'd never dismiss an ODAC squad.

[ScotsFan]

Congrats on the three teams from the NCAC making the NCAA Tournament!    

Glad to see Wooster rewarded with hosting in the first round.     Overall, I like Wooster's draw.  Opening round battle of the Scots.  Witt played at Maryville in a holiday tournament and beat them 77-70, not that that means anything much.  Witt also played and beat Capital back in December 69-63 for another common opponent in Wooster's pod. 

Looking at Witt's and OWU's draw, they seem to be quite favorable as well.  That first round match-up between Witt and Birmingham-Southern should be quite intriguing.  The winningest college basketball program and one of the most storied D3 basketball programs going up against the new kids on the block from B-S. 

As for OWU's bracket, Cabrini did advance to the Sweet 16 a year ago where they were shipped to Wooster and lost by 17 points so take that for what it's worth.  I do remember reading about how tough they are to beat at home though.

It certainly isn't out of the realm of possibility to see all 3 teams from the NCAC advance to the Sweet 16 though... 

[nicevilledave]

Wooster being put in Hope's sectional is not a real favorable draw.  Odds are whoever wins out at Wooster will be traveling to Hope the next weekend.

[kiltedbryan]

Wooster being put in Hope's sectional is not a real favorable draw.  Odds are whoever wins out at Wooster will be traveling to Hope the next weekend.

I agree it's tough, but it's also completely fair. If it comes to pass, Hope-Wooster looks like a perfect Sweet Sixteen level game in the tournament. By DIII hoops Top 25 that would be roughly #1 vs. #15/16/17 (depends on where Wooster is slotted this week).

Translated into bracket seeds, that would make Hope a #1 and Wooster around a #4...which is exactly the matchup you would expect in the Sweet Sixteen round in a fully seeded bracket.

I think this is a case of the NCAA doing a very good balance in the bracket, so my kudos to them.

[David Collinge]

Elsewhere...

The All-NCAC Team has been announced. Congratulations to Tim Brady, the Player of the Year, Bill Brown, the Coach of the Year, and Xavier Brown, the Newcomer of the Year. No real surprises there.

Team by team honorees:
Allegheny: James Ness (2nd team)
Denison: Dimonde Hale (1), Larry Farmer (2)
DePauw: Sean Haseley (2), Barry Flynn (HM)
Hiram: Jamaal Watkins (1)
Kenyon: Ikenna Nwadibia (2), Brian Lebowitz (HM)
Oberlin: James Fox (HM)
Ohio Wesleyan: Tim Brady (1), Andy Winters (2)
Wabash: Derek Bailey (1), Aaron Zinnerman (2), Brian Shelbourne (HM)
Wittenberg: Clayton Black (1), Michael Cooper (2), Alex Brandt (HM)
Wooster: Justin Hallowell (1), Xavier Brown (1)

[OldDanny]

Scots...you like OWU's draw because Cabrini may be a bit overrated.  Hmm....looking at the bracket, I see that OWU doesn't play Cabrini.  They play Hobart from the Liberty League.  You should know not to overlook anyone this time of year!  The Statesmen are a talented team!

[smedindy]

Almost every team in the tourney is talented and no one should be overlooked. However, having parsed the numbers I'd say OWU would be a favorite over Hobart.