MBB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[wooscotsfan]

Wooster 60 Ohio Wesleyan 60  going to Overtime!

OWU led 58 to 45 and Wooster went on a 15-2 run to force the Overtime!

[smedindy]

DePauw holds on to whap Denison 77-56.

Witt's starting to put Wabash away, up 48-31 in the second.

[smedindy]

Hiram holds on and beats Allegheny 63-59.

Kenyon put it together in the second half and bests Oberlin 65-50.

[wooscotsfan]

Final:  Wooster 74  Ohio Wesleyan 67 OT 

Wooster clinches the NCAC regular season title ... as they control the tiebreaker versus OWU.

Wooster was led tonight by Josh Claytor with 17 points, Xavier Brown with 17, Doug Thorpe with 14 and Evan Pannell with 11.

OWU's top scorers were Taylor Rieger with 18 points, Andy Winters with 15 and Reuel Rogers with 10.

Wooster's defense won this game as they held the Bishops to only 2 points in the last 9 minutes of regulation.

Wooster is now 19-3, 12-1 NCAC    Next game is Wittenberg at home on Saturday

GO SCOTS!

[smedindy]

Wittenberg blasts Wabash 64-47.

Up to the second standings, in what I think are the seeding order:

Wooster 12-1
OWU 9-4
Witt 8-5
Kenyon 7-6
DePauw 7-6
Denison 6-7
Hiram 5-8
Wabash 5-8
Allegheny 3-10
Oberlin 3-10

[seinfeld]

I was going to comment on the game (and may still), but the NCAA finally decided to release the regional rankings, and quite a shock. Wooster is No. 1, and Calvin is No. 4. Again, it's a reminder that the NCAA puts a bigger emphasis on SOS than I think some people realize, or tend to forget every year. And Wooster's SOS will go even higher this week by playing OWU and Witt.

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d3/regional_rankings

[ziggy]

I was going to comment on the game (and may still), but the NCAA finally decided to release the regional rankings, and quite a shock. Wooster is No. 1, and Calvin is No. 4. Again, it's a reminder that the NCAA puts a bigger emphasis on SOS than I think some people realize, or tend to forget every year. And Wooster's SOS will go even higher this week by playing OWU and Witt.

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d3/regional_rankings

I can never figures those guys out. Mike DeWitt goes on Hoopsville and says all primary criteria are considered equally while also no so subtly suggesting that WP is very important. Then these rankings come out.

Calvin has a serious SOS problem, but they also haven't lost. I would think it harder to hold a weak SOS against a team when they haven't slipped up a single time.

Against common opponents, Calvin is 3-0 while Wooster is 1-2.

The only thing I can figure is that the committee came up with their teams but didn't actually rank them until adjusting for results vs. regionally "ranked". That gives Wooster another advantage over Calvin.

How Calvin is also behind OWU and Thomas More, I have no idea.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Calvin's SOS numbers: 0.371     0.499     0.414

Wooster:                  0.565     0.525      0.552
Thomas More:           0.463     0.498      0.475
Ohio Wesleyan:         0.555     0.511      0.541

I can probably see an argument for Thomas More since the numbers are closer... but they should be undefeated when their SOS is that poor compared to the other two.

[ziggy]

Calvin's SOS numbers: 0.371     0.499     0.414

Wooster:                  0.565     0.525      0.552
Thomas More:           0.463     0.498      0.475
Ohio Wesleyan:         0.555     0.511      0.541

I can probably see an argument for Thomas More since the numbers are closer... but they should be undefeated when their SOS is that poor compared to the other two.

That's a weighty statement, the magnitude of which I'm not sure you realize.

Given a 95% win probability in each of 15 in-region games, the statistical probability of winning all 15 is less than 50-50. Keep in mind that many of Calvin's wins were in games that had win probabilities much less than 95%. Tonight's matchup at Alma, for instance, was at 85% per Massey. The statistical probability of winning all 15 games like that is less than 9%.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

When you mention Massey... you lose me. Calvin's schedule has not been a challenging schedule... so if they are that good they should be undefeated... but that doesn't mean they will be rewarded for that weakness.

[smedindy]

Why does Massey "lose" you Dave. He was quoting the win probability which is a great measure of what should be 'expected'. Don't hold a bias against it.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I think Massey is flawed and as a result I don't give it too much credence... so I don't follow arguments that use that to figure out if a team will win or not or anything else for that matter.

[smedindy]

State your objections, then. Is that algorithm flawed? What about the calculations bother you. Or do you prefer coach voo-doo and old wives tales?

The win probability is an excellent gauge - must like Nate Silver's calculations in baseball (PECOTA) and at .538

It's unbiased and does the best job in D-3 bringing all the results to bear in a statistical manner. I wish Sagarin or Pomeroy would do D-3 as well. In my D-1 ranking matrix I use Sagarin, Pomeroy and Massey together.

I don't like Wolfe because it doesn't use MOV and I haven't studied the David Wilson system enough. It looks good though.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I have posted them in so many places... but the fact Massey can't eliminate games against D1, D2, NAIA, and other teams(or for that matter understand what is an exhibition game and what isn't) gives some teams too much boost and too little for others; the ratings also seem to be centralized in Wisconsin (per Pat's analysis) and unfairly gives too much influence for schools in that region versus anywhere else in the country; I used to weigh the numbers more heavily until I just kept seeing the imbalances.

[ziggy]

My point is less about Massey and more about probability.