MBB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[kiltedbryan]

I don't think the loser of the Witt/DePauw game makes it as a Pool C.  The winner is still pretty bubbly.

Agree. NCAC pool C chances seem about like this:

Wooster - absolute, air-tight lock
OWU - edge of bubble with loss to Wooster; probably in good shape with loss in final
Witt - out with loss to DePauw; edge of bubble with loss in final
DePauw - out with loss to Witt; edge of bubble with loss in final

So if you're rooting for a two-bid NCAC, you're rooting for a Wooster loss this weekend to guarantee a different Pool A champion and give Wooster a C. I think the only likely three-bid scenario is OWU beats Woo then loses in the final. In that case I think both Woo and OWU would look pretty good for Pool C and obviously one of Witt/DPU would take the Pool A.

[ScotsFan]

NCAC pool C chances seem about like this:

Wooster - absolute, air-tight lock
OWU - edge of bubble with loss to Wooster; probably in good shape with loss in final
Witt - out with loss to DePauw; edge of bubble with loss in final
DePauw - out with loss to Witt; edge of bubble with loss in final

So if you're rooting for a two-bid NCAC, you're rooting for a Wooster loss this weekend to guarantee a different Pool A champion and give Wooster a C. I think the only likely three-bid scenario is OWU beats Woo then loses in the final. In that case I think both Woo and OWU would look pretty good for Pool C and obviously one of Witt/DPU would take the Pool A.

I agree with this.  If OWU beats Wooster on Friday and then loses in the final, I think they should get a serious look for a C giving the NCAC 3 bids. I feel like this is the only scenario that this conference has a chance to get 3 teams in the dance.

I think the only way Witt or DePauw get a C is if Wooster wins out and the loser in the NCAC finals would get consideration for a C. And I think OWU must win at least one game as I feel if they lose on Friday, they might find themselves on the outside looking in...

[smedindy]

Witt or DPU better hope there's no further carnage in "A" besides Bethany.

[kiltedbryan]

Well, new regional rankings suggest that I had my order wrong, as the rankings have DePauw 5th, Wittenberg 6th, and Ohio Wesleyan 7th in the Great Lakes. (Though Bethany will obviously fall after their loss this week)

Wooster's still an absolute, air-tight lock.
Wesleyan's in a really tough spot. Lose to Wooster and they're done - they'd probably still slot behind DPU and Witt in the final rankings - just too many teams ahead of them. Win against Wooster and lose the final and then they probably get above the DPU/Witt loser at the table, but are still the very edge of the bubble.

I'd expect the Witt/DPU winner to be out. If the winner loses in the final against Wooster, then they become the top NCAC Pool C candidate and have a shot, still near the edge of the bubble probably. If the winner loses the final against OWU, then they're in basically the same situation except that Wooster's claiming a Pool C spot ahead of them, pushing them just that much more to the edge of the bubble.

[David Collinge]

Each other member of the bottom 6 had exactly one win against a first-division club.

KB, you are nowhere near old enough to use this terminology. Leave the old timey baseball references to Wooster Booster and me. Oh, and get off my lawn!

[woosterbooster]

Each other member of the bottom 6 had exactly one win against a first-division club.

KB, you are nowhere near old enough to use this terminology. Leave the old timey baseball references to Wooster Booster and me. Oh, and get off my lawn!

Yeah.  What he said.  But DC, exactly how old were you when the bigs first split into divisions?  I'll pardon you if you can explain what a double-switch is and why it's used.

[David Collinge]

I was 8, which means I had been an active baseball fan for 5 years.

Actually, as an Indians fan in the 1960s, I never learned what "first-division" meant. All I knew was "second-division."

A double switch is where a manager thinks it is wise to corrupt his defense so someone other than a pitcher can strike out.

[kiltedbryan]

Haha, probably just a result of me growing up as a totally old-school baseball fan. Blame my father's baseball book collection (heavily tilted toward the 1940s-1970s era) and the fact that we had an APBA Baseball game in the house.

David - love that description of a double-switch.

[woosterbooster]

Haha, probably just a result of me growing up as a totally old-school baseball fan. Blame my father's baseball book collection (heavily tilted toward the 1940s-1970s era) and the fact that we had an APBA Baseball game in the house.

David - love that description of a double-switch.

I grew up playing APBA, starting in 1961!  I now work for Diamond Mind Baseball, which produces a great statistical baseball simulation.  My new hobby, though, is playing Skeetersoft, which is a much improved version of APBA.  Great card and dice game.

[smedindy]

DPU and Wittenberg playing each other - a Wabash fan's worst nightmare. Actually, no, if they were playing in the conference finals that would be our worst nightmare...

[wooscotsfan]

DPU and Wittenberg playing each other - a Wabash fan's worst nightmare. Actually, no, if they were playing in the conference finals that would be our worst nightmare...

Smed -- does this mean that you are rooting for Wooster to win the tourney? 

[David Collinge]

Halftime, Tigers 35, Tigers 35.

[David Collinge]

Tigers win, 63-61. Tiger Up!

(That's Witt, for the uninitiated.)

[kiltedbryan]

That's probably it for DePauw but they'll be sitting somewhere near the edge of the bubble. They go into the selection with an 18-8 (.692) with a good SOS and (probably) a 4-5 vRRO mark.

If they aren't selected, pretty easy to point to the losses to Oberlin, Allegheny and Kenyon. Win 2 of those 3 and they're 20-6 (.769) with the same peripherals; win all three and it's 21-5 (.808) and they'd probably be almost a lock.

[wooscotsfan]

At the Half:  Wooster 39  OWU 35

Scots finish the half on a 6-0 run....back to back three pointers by Doug Thorpe and Evan Pannell