MBB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[fantastic50]

Can someone tell me how many at large bids that are?
I am having a real hard time trying to figure how Denison is not in....

They are ranked all season....last week at #14!!

And they take seven teams at 17-10!!!!

Are they ALL conference winners???

Denison's strength of schedule was their undoing. It wasn't just bad, it was really bad.

Denison's .478 SOS puts them off the left of this chart.  http://imgur.com/a/7TgdF
The lowest SOS of any at-large team was Endicott's .523, though in some years, teams around .500-.505 with good records have gotten an at-large.

At 25-2 or 24-3, they might have had a chance, with the soft bubble this year, but not at 22-5.  The NCAC was down this year, and Denison's non-conference schedule included only one team with a winning record.

[BigRedFan]

Thanks everyone....

Just a real tough pill to swallow....

And I will always put the NCAC up against any conference!!

Best of luck to the Scots....do us proud.

[AndOne]

Thanks soooooooooo much for the reasons....

So why does Denison rank as high as 9th if we play nothing but
crap teams?  The ranking is only based on record alone?

So of those 21 at large bids they ALL played tougher schedules?

BRF,

I know this probably won't ease the pain, but perhaps provide a little perspective.
Since 2009-10, Denison has won 7, 8, 14, 9, 12, 13, 17, and 22 games.
Since 2009-10, St. Norbert has won 23, 20, 16, 20, 25, 24, 25, and 19 games. Since 2012-13 their (Midwest) Conference record has been 15-3, 18-0, 18-0, 18-0, and 16-2 this year. They were ranked #4 in the pre-season poll. They win both their regular season conference title and conference tourney championship about every year. They consistently rank high in the D3Hoops poll. With their high number of wins every year, this is understandable-high win totals = a high ranking. However, they, in large part, chalk up those high win totals because they play in a very weak conference. And last year's second best team even transferred to another conference this season. Because of so many weak opponents, their strength of schedule (SoS, which the NCAA views as a major consideration, is low. However, they haven't had to worry about it because they win their conference tournament and get the conference automatic qualifier. But this season they didn't, and without that AQ, they are sitting home despite their fine record. The barrier to their inclusion in the national tournament--a low SoS. It unfortunately appears your team is home for the same reason. I see some of the teams that Denison beat had 4, 8, 7, 5, 3, 6, 7, 7, 11, and 11 wins which doesn't make for a high SoS. Absent of that, the key to a ticket to the Big Dance was to win the conference tourney. Had that been accomplished, you would be dancing on Friday.
Again, neither a very nice looking W/L record nor a high D3Hoops ranking, are guarantees of selection for the national tournament. 😟

[AndOne]

Wooster takes on North Central (IL) in a pod that includes Westminister and Hanover as host. Thoughts?

I don't know too much about Illinois Central, but all I know is I wish they had been the hosts. I'm in Madison, Wisconsin now, so I could have gone watch Wooster play if that was the case.

WooClone,

Perhaps the reason you don't know too much about Illinois Central is because there is no such team. A little surprised you don't know that being only 2 hours away. 
However, there is a team traveling to Hanover College Friday named North Central.
The Cardinals bring a very pedestrian looking 17-10 record into their battle with Wooster. On the surface, it looks like a fairly easy time for Wooster, an annually good team. However, NCC is on a bit of a hot streak right now. Ranked #13 in the pre-season poll, and rising as high as #6 early in the year, many thought their season was down the tubes when they lost their probable best all around player, a D3Hoops pre-season All-American, for the season in their 7th game. Finishing up their non conference schedule and playing in the very competitive CCIW conference, they went 9-8 over their next 17 games. That brought them to their last conference game of the year at Illinois Wesleyan who is 91-15 at home since 2009-2010, including 11-2 this year. A loss in that game would have ended their season. However, their win in that game got them fourth place in the final conference standings, and the final spot in the conference tournament where they beat the conference champ on their home court Fri night, and the #3 seed Sat night to get the CCIW AQ.
North Central knows they will have to again be at the top of their game to add any more Ws this weekend. They may be a 17-10 team, but they aren't playing at that level. Win or lose you can bet they'll leave it all out on the court Fri (and Sat) night. 

[Mr. Ypsi]

AndOne, actually there IS an Illinois Central - it is a Community College just east of Peoria!  Since I haven't lived in Peoria for the last fifty years, I don't know whether or not they have athletic teams.

[WooClone15]

Andone,

Sorry, my mistake; I meant North Central. And surprisingly, we don't hear too much about a d3 team from Illinois up in Madison.

I'm sure it will be a good game, and if they got in they must be pretty good, but I'm hopeful that Wooster take care of business this weekend.

[AndOne]

AndOne, actually there IS an Illinois Central - it is a Community College just east of Peoria!  Since I haven't lived in Peoria for the last fifty years, I don't know whether or not they have athletic teams.

Well, I ASSumed the discussion concerned the D3 scene. 

[AndOne]

Andone,

Sorry, my mistake; I meant North Central. And surprisingly, we don't hear too much about a d3 team from Illinois up in Madison.

I'm sure it will be a good game, and if they got in they must be pretty good, but I'm hopeful that Wooster take care of business this weekend.

Wooster has been one of D3's upper echelon teams for an extended period.

** Wooster fans might remember that former Wooster star Ian Franks was a graduate assistant at North Central during the 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 seasons. In 2012 the Cardinals were a Sweet Sixteen team, and in 2013 they advanced to the Final Four losing their semifinal game to eventual champ Amherst.

[Gregory Sager]

AndOne, actually there IS an Illinois Central - it is a Community College just east of Peoria!  Since I haven't lived in Peoria for the last fifty years, I don't know whether or not they have athletic teams.

They have outstanding athletic teams, Chuck. ICC has won numerous NJCAA national championships in women's basketball, volleyball, and softball.

NCAC fans who root for the Cleveland Indians might also be interested in knowing that Jim Thome played baseball and basketball for Illinois Central College before he was drafted by the Tribe.

Andone,

Sorry, my mistake; I meant North Central. And surprisingly, we don't hear too much about a d3 team from Illinois up in Madison.

Well, then, you're not following local D3 sports, because the D3 school in Madison -- Edgewood College -- plays in a league that includes five Illinois-based institutions. And, as Mark pointed out, North Central was: a) the school where former Wooster star Ian Franks was an assistant coach; and b) a participant in the 2013 Final Four.

Wooster takes on North Central (IL) in a pod that includes Westminister and Hanover as host. Thoughts?

I don't know too much about Illinois Central, but all I know is I wish they had been the hosts. I'm in Madison, Wisconsin now, so I could have gone watch Wooster play if that was the case.

WooClone,

Perhaps the reason you don't know too much about Illinois Central is because there is no such team. A little surprised you don't know that being only 2 hours away. 
However, there is a team traveling to Hanover College Friday named North Central.
The Cardinals bring a very pedestrian looking 17-10 record into their battle with Wooster. On the surface, it looks like a fairly easy time for Wooster, an annually good team. However, NCC is on a bit of a hot streak right now. Ranked #13 in the pre-season poll, and rising as high as #6 early in the year, many thought their season was down the tubes when they lost their probable best all around player, a D3Hoops pre-season All-American, for the season in their 7th game. Finishing up their non conference schedule and playing in the very competitive CCIW conference, they went 9-8 over their next 17 games. That brought them to their last conference game of the year at Illinois Wesleyan who is 91-15 at home since 2009-2010, including 11-2 this year. A loss in that game would have ended their season. However, their win in that game got them fourth place in the final conference standings, and the final spot in the conference tournament where they beat one of the three the conference co-champs on their home court Fri night, and the #3 seed Sat night to get the CCIW AQ.
North Central knows they will have to again be at the top of their game to add any more Ws this weekend. They may be a 17-10 team, but they aren't playing at that level. Win or lose you can bet they'll leave it all out on the court Fri (and Sat) night. 

FTFY, Mark.

[AndOne]

Where they beat the #1 tourney seed Friday, and the #3 seed Saturday, thus becoming the first #4 seed to win the CCIW conference tournament since it's inception in 2006. 

[Gregory Sager]

And that's fine. But after waiting for 30 years for my alma mater to win a conference championship, I'm not going to allow it to be forgotten a week later.

[WooClone15]

Well, then, you're not following local D3 sports, because the D3 school in Madison -- Edgewood College -- plays in a league that includes five Illinois-based institutions. And, as Mark pointed out, North Central was: a) the school where former Wooster star Ian Franks was an assistant coach; and b) a participant in the 2013 Final Four.

No, you're right, I don't really follow D-3 sports all that much outside of the NCAC. Plus, I didn't get to Wooster until the fall of 2011, and didn't really follow them at all before that, so Ian Franks doesn't mean much to me.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Greg, thanks for the info on ICC, and especially on Jim Thome.  I didn't ever hear that he was an ICC player.  I've long admired him not only as a Peorian, but as one of the very few power hitters during the steroid era who (so far as I know) was NEVER even hinted as being a juicer.

[sac]

Hanover pod

Offensive efficiency or Points per possession
Hanover         1.12
Westminster  1.06
Wooster         1.12
North Cent.   1.06

Wooster and Hanover right in-line with tournament avg.  North Central maybe struggle a little, Westminster's come from a conference full of teams that really can't stop anyone.


Deffensive efficiency
Hanover              .997
Westminster     1.01
Wooster              .987
North Central      .929

North Central might actually be one of the strongest defensive teams in the field, they certainly have not played a soft schedule.


Pace or possessions per game
Hanover          69.65
Westminster   69.7
Wooster         69.95
North Cent     65.95

I've got the d3 avg right around 73, so all of these teams are a little slower than avg with North Central playing the slowest.


Four Factors

eFG%          Off             Def
Hanover           57.8                48.4
Westminster     51.9               48.5
Wooster           54.1                47.2
North Central    49.9               48.9

Hanover can really score.


Rebounding
          %Off rebounds   Opp%Off rebounds

Hanover                31.5                24.1
Westminster         35.3               31.4
Wooster                36.6               28.4
North Central        35.3               25.8

Hanover and North Central are really good on the defensive glass, while everyone but Hanover is above avg on their own.



FT Rate
Hanover             39.8          27.0
Westminster      33.9         26.8
Wooster             34.4         36.3
North Central     33.1         36.5

Wooster/No. Central is a rare match-up between teams who put their opponents on the line a lot while also being pretty good at getting to the line.  Uh, expect a lot of FT's maybe.   Hanover must be near the top in the field at getting to the line


Turnover Rate or Turnover per possession
                      TO rate          Opp TO rate
Hanover                 18.28                17.62
Westminster          18.13                20.48
Wooster                17.9                  19.34
North Central        17.78                15.65

Westminster comes in with a positive turnover rate, but I fear some of that might be SLIAC related.  North Central is very negative and despite looking like a pretty good defensive team they don't create much in the way of turnovers but also play in a low turnover league in the CCIW.  Hanover is surprisingly slightly negative here too.



This pod is full of history problems for Hanvoer and Westminster.  The SLIAC has generally not done well in the tournament and I would probably dial back some of Westminster's good looking stats based on SLIAC competition.   Hanover has a lot of good looking numbers but history is not on their side.  The HCAC reps have failed to advance past the first weekend every year since Transylvania in 2006.  Of course, Transylvania beat Wooster that year to advance.  Also of note an HCAC school hosting a pod is pretty rare thing, hosting advantages can't be discounted so maybe this is the year.

I think this Hanover team is good, I saw them play at Hope last year and its basically the same group a year older.  But getting by Wooster and North Central seems like a tall order, if I were leaning any direction in this pod I might pick Wooster to advance but could just as easily see North Central moving on. 

Saturday's game should end up being pretty good.

[ScotsFan]

Hanover pod

Offensive efficiency or Points per possession
Hanover         1.12
Westminster  1.06
Wooster         1.12
North Cent.   1.06

Wooster and Hanover right in-line with tournament avg.  North Central maybe struggle a little, Westminster's come from a conference full of teams that really can't stop anyone.


Deffensive efficiency
Hanover              .997
Westminster     1.01
Wooster              .987
North Central      .929

North Central might actually be one of the strongest defensive teams in the field, they certainly have not played a soft schedule.


Pace or possessions per game
Hanover          69.65
Westminster   69.7
Wooster         69.95
North Cent     65.95

I've got the d3 avg right around 73, so all of these teams are a little slower than avg with North Central playing the slowest.


Four Factors

eFG%          Off             Def
Hanover           57.8                48.4
Westminster     51.9               48.5
Wooster           54.1                47.2
North Central    49.9               48.9

Hanover can really score.


Rebounding
          %Off rebounds   Opp%Off rebounds

Hanover                31.5                24.1
Westminster         35.3               31.4
Wooster                36.6               28.4
North Central        35.3               25.8

Hanover and North Central are really good on the defensive glass, while everyone but Hanover is above avg on their own.



FT Rate
Hanover             39.8          27.0
Westminster      33.9         26.8
Wooster             34.4         36.3
North Central     33.1         36.5

Wooster/No. Central is a rare match-up between teams who put their opponents on the line a lot while also being pretty good at getting to the line.  Uh, expect a lot of FT's maybe.   Hanover must be near the top in the field at getting to the line


Turnover Rate or Turnover per possession
                      TO rate          Opp TO rate
Hanover                 18.28                17.62
Westminster          18.13                20.48
Wooster                17.9                  19.34
North Central        17.78                15.65

Westminster comes in with a positive turnover rate, but I fear some of that might be SLIAC related.  North Central is very negative and despite looking like a pretty good defensive team they don't create much in the way of turnovers but also play in a low turnover league in the CCIW.  Hanover is surprisingly slightly negative here too.



This pod is full of history problems for Hanvoer and Westminster.  The SLIAC has generally not done well in the tournament and I would probably dial back some of Westminster's good looking stats based on SLIAC competition.   Hanover has a lot of good looking numbers but history is not on their side.  The HCAC reps have failed to advance past the first weekend every year since Transylvania in 2006.  Of course, Transylvania beat Wooster that year to advance.  Also of note an HCAC school hosting a pod is pretty rare thing, hosting advantages can't be discounted so maybe this is the year.

I think this Hanover team is good, I saw them play at Hope last year and its basically the same group a year older.  But getting by Wooster and North Central seems like a tall order, if I were leaning any direction in this pod I might pick Wooster to advance but could just as easily see North Central moving on. 

Saturday's game should end up being pretty good. 

Thanks for putting that together Sac! 

That year Transy advanced, they were the host site as well!  That said, Wooster's fans should be well represented though.  Last weekend at the NCAC championships at OWU, it looked as though at least 40% of the crowd were Wooster fans!  And that's counting a large student section of OWU students.