MBB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[smedindy]

Here's Pomeroy's stats explained:

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/stats_explained/

[WoosterFAN]

DC - I gotta disagree with you (does not happen very often).  But any basketball team has something to play for this time of year and a veteran team with a likely two-time NCAC POY should not have let-downs like that.
     While a berth in the expanded NCAAs is just about locked, by no means is home court/seeding locked up.  The GL region is just oo deep and too many things can happenin conference tourneys in the OAC and MIAA to rest on laurel this early in the year.
     WITT and WOO always get everyone's best shot a victory there can make a season.  WITT had tons to play for.
    As for the style of play.  Let's not forget that the "deliberate" style has long been the WITTENBERG Way and Wooster when they had the bigs from Aukamp to Nelson were a deliberate team on offense that played lock down defense.  Coaches (and I am one of those) often preach do what we do best and the do the stuff that gives you the best chance to win.  That is WITT does and it work for 95% of NCAC games of the past 15 years!!

[woosterbooster]

Pomeroy's page is interesting, to say the least.

After thinking about it a little more, I believe that while you can certainly measure offensive (or defensive) efficiency in basketball based upon points per possession, attempting to measure pace or tempo by possessions/game might be another matter.

First of all, how do you deal with possessions that are ended by turnovers?  If you count them, a ballclub that commits a lot of these will have a shorter average time of possession, as some turnovers come soon after a team gets the ball. 

And what about missed shots that end in offensive rebounds, or several of them in succession?  Is that one possession, until the team either scores or gives up the ball?  Or is it numerous possessions?  It would be possible, from just looking at a stat sheet, to confuse some lousy-passing, double-dribbling but great offensive rebounding team with Grinell when actually it was the St. Mary's sixth-grade B team.

Who ever invented this stupid game, anyway? (I know, Naismith did.) 

Can you imagine the first nerd sitting in those nineteenth-century bleachers who blurted out, while watching an early contest, "See that there?  Where O'Riley intercepted that pass?  Let's call that a 'turnover' on Simmons 'cause he, well, turned the ball over to the other team.  Lemme write that down.  That's one turnover for Simmons, who now leads the league.  You know what a league is, don'tcha, Henshaw?  We just invented that concept last week... And Riley, for the interception, we'll call that a 'steal'.  First time that Irishman every stole anything without getting thrown in the clink... 

[David Collinge]

Can you imagine the first nerd sitting in those nineteenth-century bleachers who blurted out, while watching an early contest, "See that there?  Where O'Riley intercepted that pass?  Let's call that a 'turnover' on Simmons 'cause he, well, turned the ball over to the other team.  Lemme write that down.  That's one turnover for Simmons, who now leads the league.  You know what a league is, don'tcha, Henshaw?  We just invented that concept last week... And Riley, for the interception, we'll call that a 'steal'.  First time that Irishman every stole anything without getting thrown in the clink... 

I think what happened was a group of baseball fans went to a basketball game and got bored stiff when they realized that the only stats being kept were points and fouls.  No true baseball fan can watch a game without keeping copious statistics on every possible or theoretical action.   

[earlhamalum]

I am still upset about Witt... Actually how can I be.  If Earlham wins One of those O.T. games in the NCAC this year, they HOSt.  BASH,OWU,WOOSTER... ouch that hurts to type and think about.  I really want to go to Bash on Tuesday so I can be one of the 10 Earlham Fans at the game.  Ahhh I'm up in the air, I should work... Or i Could take the Evening OFF... HMMMMmmm

[David Collinge]

For derek poe's reference, here's where we are with one game remaining (Saturday's games in parentheses):

1. Wooster 15-0 (at OWU)
2. Wittenberg 12-3 (vs. Allegheny)
3. Ohio Wesleyan 11-4 (vs. Wooster)
4. Wabash 9-6 (at Kenyon)
5. Earlham 8-7 (vs. Oberlin)
6. Allegheny 7-8 (at Witt)
7. Denison 6-9 (at Hiram)
8. Kenyon 4-11 (vs. Wabash)
9. Oberlin 2-13 (at Earlham)
10. Hiram 1-14 (vs. Denison)

Wooster has locked up the top seed.  Wittenberg has locked up the second seed, by virtue of a season sweep of OWU.  OWU is therefore the third seed.  Wabash is the fourth seed, by virtue of their victory over Witt.  Earlham is 5th by virtue of having defeated Allegheny in their only meeting.  Allegheny is sixth if they win or if Denison loses; but in the event of a tie, Denison would be sixth by virtue of having beaten Earlham.  In that case, Allegheny is seventh.  Kenyon owns the eighth seed.  Hiram would win a tiebreaker with Oberlin for ninth by virtue of beating Denison; otherwise Oberlin is ninth and Hiram tenth (and no matter what, both Oberlin and Hiram miss the tournament.)

Here's those tiebreakers, as I see them; anyone with superior knowledge, please correct me:
Witt and OWU for 2nd: Witt swept OWU
Wabash and Earlham for 4th: They split, so I go to "best win:" Wabash over #2 Witt beats Earlham over #3 OWU.
Earlham and 'Gheny for 5th: Earlham won the lone meeting.
'Gheny and Denison for 6th: They split, so "best win:" Denison beat #5 Earlham, 'Gheny didn't beat anyone ahead of them (so their best win was #6 Denison) (of course, if 'Gheny beats Witt, that's a better win, but then they wouldn't be tied with Denison)
Oberlin and Hiram for 9th: They split; for Hiram to force a tie, they have to beat Denison (#6 or 7) which is a "better win" than Oberlin over #8 Kenyon.

Therefore the only Saturday games that can impact the tournament seeding are 'Gheny at Witt and Denison at Hiram, and the tourney looks like this:

#8 Kenyon at #1 Wooster
#7 Allegheny (probably) or Denison (maybe) at #2 Wittenberg
#6 Denison (probably) or Allegheny (maybe) at #3 OWU
#5 Earlham at #4 Wabash

I say Denison is "probably" #6 because I assume that Witt will beat Allegheny (by at least 35) and that Denison will pull it together enough to beat Hiram.  Maybe that's not so safe an assumption, especially with the PupDogs playing for the pride of finishing out of the outright basement.  But I'm willing to go with it for now. 

[ScotsFan]

DC - I gotta disagree with you (does not happen very often). But any basketball team has something to play for this time of year and a veteran team with a likely two-time NCAC POY should not have let-downs like that.
While a berth in the expanded NCAAs is just about locked, by no means is home court/seeding locked up. The GL region is just oo deep and too many things can happenin conference tourneys in the OAC and MIAA to rest on laurel this early in the year.
WITT and WOO always get everyone's best shot a victory there can make a season. WITT had tons to play for.

I agree with WoosterFAN.  If Witt were to have won out, they would have had a great shot at garnering the #1 ranking in the GL Region at season's end.  They were 3rd in this weeks GL rankings.  With BW losing, that would have put them in 2nd.  Which means that by running the NCAC tournament, it would have virtually locked up the #1 ranking in the GL region.  Now, they have no shot.  Sure, they are a lock to gain a post-season birth, either automatic or Pool C, but to say that they had basically nothing to play  for last night and that could be partially to blame for their sub-par performance is a bit of a stretch IMO.

[ScotsFan]

Thank God Wabash beat Witt, or who knows how far you would have fallen Wally?  My gosh, do you always have to be so critical???  Maybe angry is a better word to describe it.  Or maybe better yet, blowing things completely out of proportion and not letting things go.  You've become a little annoyed?  If this is a little annoyed, I'd hate to see you when you are totally annoyed.  Your problem is, you take things waaaaaay to seriously in here.  That's obvious by how you have brought up things that happened weeks ago.  Try letting go!  Another thing, why do you care so vehemently about Wooster's fans' opinions of things in here?  Maybe some of the things that come out are a bit far fetched, but Wooster is enjoying, arguably one of it's best regular seasons in the school's storied history, so if a few of us want to get excited, so be it.  Why don't you come down off of your high horse and try not to take everything so seriously.  I know I for one will start to take you less seriously the more you come out with your own annoying posts like the two I highlighted. 

I don't think any of that refutes Wally's description of the general perception of certain Wooster posters and their attitudes.

I didn't realize that I was trying to refute Wally's description of the general perception of certain Wooster posters and their attitudes?  Where did I say that he was false in his accusations?  I can't seem to find anything in my post that shows I was attemting to refute anything Wally said.  What I was attempting to point out was basically that I feel0 he needs to take a chill pill.  Like I said, why does he have to take such an abrasive stance on anything relating to Wooster's fans and how we express our enjoyment in yet another successful basketball season, no matter how over zealous it may get at times.  Sometimes, no response is the best response...

[wally_wabash]

Sometimes, no response is the best response...

That axe swings both ways you know...

[imderekpoe]

DC - thanks for the update.  I did manage to sign on and get scores while in Jamaica, but kind of lost track of how everything was shaping up!

I agree with your concern about Denison.  They've not been playing very well, but nobody in the conference is playing as poorly as Hiram has for the last couple of weeks.   It certainly is a big game for Denison, since a win would keep them from having to play Witt until the 2nd round.

That makes me think....  Given the assumption that one of the 3 - 8 seeds would have to beat both Witt and Woo to win the tourney, would it be better to play one of them in the first round or have to beat both teams back-to-back over the weekend?  

[wally_wabash]

Not necessarily true, imderekpoe.  Should Wooster or Witt lose in the first round and then the other lose in the semis, there is a path to the NCAC tournament championship that doesn't involve having to beat either team.  For example, Let's say Allegheny beats Wittenberg in the first round and OWU wins their game vs. Denison.  OWU then plays Allegheny in the semis. In the second semi, the Earlham/Wabash winner knocks off the Scots.  If OWU wins their semifinal, they move to the championship game vs. Earlham/Wabash and can get a pass to the dance without having to beat either Wooster or Witt. 

Now, I'd put the odds of Allegheny beating Witt at the HPER at somewhere around 150-1 and the odds of Earlham/Wabash beating Wooster at Timken in the semis at somewhere around 50-1 (that's a generous estimate I think).  Combined you end up with about a 7500-1 chance of that scenario playing out per the odds I've stated here.  We could haggle about those numbers, but I think we can agree that it's a near impossibility. 

To answer your question about whether it's best to play Witt/Woo on Tuesday and then get the other in the final as opposed to playing them on back to back days next weekend...I'm not sure it matters.  You  have to beat them both and whether  you play those games one right after the other with a 5 minute breather inbetween or six weeks apart, it's hard.  I don't see any real advantage one way or the other. 

Realistically speaking, this tournament will be won by the winner of Witt/Woo III, barring an unbelievable weekend by either OWU or the Wabash/Earlham winner. 

[David Collinge]

DC - thanks for the update.  I did manage to sign on and get scores while in Jamaica, but kind of lost track of how everything was shaping up!

If you mention that trip to Jamaica one more time, I'm going to start smiting! 

[Li'l Giant]

What I was attempting to point out was basically that I feel0 he needs to take a chill pill.

I understood that to mean that the sole reason for his comments are his "taking things too seriously" or his "anger" or "critical" nature. If that's not what you meant, then, I'm sorry. That's how I read your comment.

[ScotsFan]

Sometimes, no response is the best response...

That axe swings both ways you know...

Touche...

I know I've said things in the past that would have been better left unsaid.  At least I can admit it.  What can I say, I like to stir things up a bit.  I just felt that you were going a bit overboard lately in your negativity towards Wooster and it was getting a bit old.  Hopefully that nice win by your Little Giants put you in a little better frame of mind.

[sac]

I've kept a stat formula on D3 for several years now.  I use it for my own amusement, and today was the first time since early Dec that I updated it.

It uses alot of the basics of  team efficiency, and I throw in my own biases.......mostly relating to wins and losses.  Usually by mid Dec I can pick out the teams that will be in the hunt for NCAA bids and confernce titles.  just not this year.

Here's what I have for the Great Lakes (MIAA, OAC, NCAC)

Wooster 246.02
Hope        222.02
Baldwin-Wallace 217.45
Albion 180.86
Calvin 170..30
Wittenberg 168.77
Ohio Northern 148.09

I didn't do Carnegie Mellon, but I think they fit right around  160-170 range.

I would look at this and say playing Calvin is similar to playing Wittenberg.

Don't get caugt up in the wide range of numbers, win % has a lot to do with that, but I look at is grouping teams within ranges.  I tend to think of this as a measurement of quality of play.

Right now it looks like Woo, Hope and BW are the class of the GL  followed by a nice pack of 3.

Historically teams that rate 175 or above have done well in the NCAA tournament.  

Woosters is one of the highest, if not the highest I've seen in some time.  Hope's is the highest they've ever had.


There are also raw numbers that don't take into account win %, and they breakdown offense/defense or efficiency

Offense Top 6 in Region
Wooster 103.33
Bald-Wally 95.08
Hope 89..98
Albion 82.12
Calvin 80.63
Wittenberg 71.50

Defense Top 6 in Region
Wittenberg 32.71
Albion 47.05
Hope 47.93
Bald Wally 49.49
Wabash 51.04

Then I have what I think of as a power rating
Wooster 46.06
Bald-Wally 45.29
Hope 42.05
Wittenberg 38.79
Albion 35.07

I can also rate conferences and compare them to years past, The OAC is the top conference in this region this year after the MIAA held that spot for 3 years......convincingly.  The NCAC is right around its average.  The MIAA is at its lowest rating since I started about 5 years ago.

In case anyone's curious the 3 worst teams in the region statistically

Marietta -56.64
Oberlin -48.86
Hiram -28.55

.500 teams usually rate around the 75-90 range.

Its all interesting in its own way.  Thought I'd add my little stat world to the topic of efficiency.