MBB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[earlhamalum]

Realistically speaking, this tournament will be won by the winner of Witt/Woo III, barring an unbelievable weekend by either OWU or the Wabash/Earlham winner. 

Who knows what will happen the weekend of the 24th.  It  maybe Witt/Woo III, or an Unbelievable weekend by another NCAC Team.  That is the Great thing about the game of Basketball... Both Team's Lace up their Basketball shoes,  and play at least 40 minutes of Basketball!  I have a feeling the next week of NCAC Basketball is going to be an Enjoyable One!  Let's Sit back and ENJOY the RIDE.......

[smedindy]

Just remember that the last non - Witt team to beat Wooster at Wooster was Wabash. So it CAN happen.

Just make sure we get the Indiana refs and the Ohio refs are locked in the closet....

[earlhamalum]

http://www.earlham.edu/~awpe/content/sports/men/basketball/2005-06/pressreleases/f021606.html

Nice Article on 3 Earlham Players that have been playing together since they were 9 years old and will soon end their playing days together in the next few weeks.  Brandon Miller, Tyler Stewart and Markous Jewett started playing organize basketball together at the age of 9.  Jewett will have enough Credits to Graduate in May and faces a similar situation as Port.  They also give credit to upper-classman when they were freshman... (Sorry Billy_ trying to float my own boat there.) 

[wally_wabash]

I think what you meant was the last non-Witt NCAC team to beat Wooster at Wooster was Wabash...several non-Witt teams have won at Timken since Wabash pulled it off in '02 (Kalamazoo, Capital, John Carroll, and B-W have done it).  

I'm not saying that it can't be done.  I know it can be done...I'm just acknowledging that given the sizeable gap between Wooster/Witt and the rest of the conference, it's going to take a truly extraordinary weekend by either OWU, Wabash, or Earlham to get the NCAC's bid to the tournament.  Either of those three teams pulling off the Witt/Wooster double would be one of the biggest and most unexpected stories of the D-III season.

[billy_pilgrim]

Thanks for sharing Earlhamalum. Jewett had mentioned to me that Tinch was working on such a piece. It is sad when any group of seniors who has lasted four years in college and on a basketball team.  It takes quite a sacrifice to pull that off and still graduate on time. But to be going through those times with two of your best friends from early in life is even more special. Though these may be the last few times that Jewett, Miller and Stewart lace 'em up together for the Quakers, I'm sure you'll see those guys playing together again at Clear Creek or the YMCA.

I'll be there tomorrow in Richmond and I'd bet there will be a little bit of emotion on display.

[AndersDY]

Albion 180.86
Calvin 170..30

Is that actually still the case after Calvin winning on Wednesday? Makes me a little skeptical, but I'm assuming your numbers weight the season equally and don't account for how a team is playing right now. Calvin sure seems to be improving while Albion is not, I would have to think they are the more dangerous team right now.

Woosters is one of the highest, if not the highest I've seen in some time. Hope's is the highest they've ever had.

I like the sound of both of those leading into the national tourney, but big giant -sigh- for the fact Hope couldn't turn such on-paper talent into even a share of the MIAA.

It is interesting in your numbers that Wittenberg falls just behind the big three of the MIAA since they seem hard to compare; Hope/Calvin/Albion tradeoff games between each other while Wittenberg is basically expected to own their conference other than the couple showcases with Wooster. Wittenberg seems to be having a season similar to Albion as they were expected to be one of the two contenders, but haven't gotten the job done against the other top team (teams in Albion's case) and got stung once by a more middle-of-the-conference team. Of course while they both seem to be limping into the post-season a little, their inside games could still be a potential matchup nightmare for upcoming opponents in the national tourney (though assuming Albion is in the NCAAs isn't as safe as Witt right now).

[sac]

Andersdy, your correct my number aren't weighted.  I'd guess if I'd done the number two weeks ago, Albion would have been around 190, and Calvin 160.  Calvin's poor start took a long time for them to climb.

Using a weighted formula would consist of entering stats from each individual game rather than the season stat totals.  Thats too much work for someone employed. .......but it would maybe give a better read on teams.

After I posted those #'s I noticed a small error in the MIAA stats......hehe small as far as you know.  Hope actually came in at 198.03, Albion 156..34 and Calvin and 147.27

That changes the Region rank
Wooster 246.02
Baldwin-Wallace 217.45
Hope        192.99
Wittenberg 168.77
Albion 156.34
Calvin 147.27
Ohio Northern 148.09

[jscwittfan]

I know this is very, VERY unlikely, but if Wooster were to lose on Tuesday in their opening round game, would the semis/finals still be at Wooster?

Again, I know it's probably not going to happen, but I was just curious.

[woosterbooster]

I heard from a reliable source (it might have been DC) that if Kenyon were to knock off Wooster that both the NCAC and NCAA tournaments would be called off and that Kenyon would be proclaimed both the conference and national champion.  They would also be given an expansion slot in the NBA for the 2006-07 season, and would be know as the Lords of Gambier.

Seriously, I was just thinking about your question the other day.  I believe that the highest remaining seed, Witt, would then host the remainder of the tournament, but I'm not at all sure about that.  I'm wondering about Kenyon, that they might have been playing a little possum last Tuesday.  Formato played only 20 minutes.  Their shot blocker, the freshman Bediako, played only 12 despite being 4-5 from the floor.  He was in some foul trouble, though.

[David Collinge]

I believe that the highest remaining seed, Witt, would then host the remainder of the tournament,

That's my understanding of the rules.

I heard from a reliable source (it might have been DC) that if Kenyon were to knock off Wooster that both the NCAC and NCAA tournaments would be called off and that Kenyon would be proclaimed both the conference and national champion.  They would also be given an expansion slot in the NBA for the 2006-07 season, and would be know as the Lords of Gambier.

That's not my understanding of the rules. 

[David Collinge]

Pat has updated the national QoWI standings through games of yesterday.  Tonight, Carnegie Mellon was upset at Emory, but the Tartans retain their control of the UAA Pool A bid by virtue of Rochester and NYU also losing (to Case and Chicago, respectively.)  CMU is now tied with WashU. atop the UAA, and the Tartans swept the Bears so they own the tiebreaker.  NYU, Rochester, and Chicago are all a game back with two games left.  In other words, all bets are off regarding how (and if) CMU is getting to the Big Dance.  In the data that follows, I've updated CMU's QoWI.

So here's the Great Lakes teams in the top 120 of national QoWI, along with their regional record:
Legend:  Team -- Regional Record and win % (ranking w/in region for win %) -- QoWI (national/regional rank)

Wooster -- 19-1 .950 (1) -- 10.700 (11*/1)
CMU -- 13-4 .765 (9) -- 10.556 (13*/2)
Wittenberg -- 16-3 .842 (5) -- 10.368 (17/3)
Calvin -- 10-1 .909 (2) -- 10.182 (21/4)
Baldwin-Wallace -- 19-3 .864 (4) -- 10.136 (23/5)
Hope -- 14-2 .875 (3) -- 9.750 (47/6)
Albion -- 10-3 .769 (8 ) -- 9.462 (59/7)
Bethany -- 17-4 .810 (7) -- 9.333 (73/8)
Lake Erie -- 15-3 .833 (6) -- 9.278 (74/9)
Ohio Northern -- 14-5 .737 (11) -- 8.947 (102/10)
Wilmington  -- 18-6 .750 (10) -- 8.875 (106/11)
Ohio Wesleyan -- 15-6 .714 (12) -- 8.810 (108/12)

*I've approximated where Wooster and CMU would be based on CMU's loss tonight, which was only a 3-QoWI-point game for them).  The other national rankings may be slightly off, due to the other UAA results tonght, but should be close.

I think we can officially strike OWU, Wilma, and ONU from any further Pool C consideration; it's win or go home for these teams next week.  Lake Erie and Bethany are hanging on to a tattered fringe of Pool C at the very best; Bethany still looks fairly solid for a Pool B bid, and LEC can still get in by winning the AMCC tournament.  The top 7 then shape up this way, as I see it:

1. Wooster
2. Calvin (beating Albion on Weds. was a big boost to their QoWI, while Hope's QoWI actually fell in beating lowly Alma)
3. Baldwin-Wallace
4. Wittenberg (mostly because B-W beat Wooster, who beat Witt twice)
5 (tie). Hope
5 (tie). CMU (a cop-out, but CMU's QoWI is still 0.8 higher than Hope's, offsetting the poor win %)
7. Albion (and Albion's QoWI will go down this weekend, win or lose vs. lowly Olivet)

Pool C prospects: 
NCAC: Woo and Witt are both in regardless of what happens.  So if OWU wins the tournament, NCAC gets three bids. 
MIAA:  Calvin is in regardless; Hope is in if they reach the MIAA final.  Albion likely needs to win the MIAA to earn a berth.  All three suffer from playing QoWI-damaging first-round games in the MIAA tournament (against Olivet, Alma, and Adrian, all with win %s below .333 and therefore just 8-point QoWI wins).  Plus Albion has a season-ending game with Olivet that will hurt them even more, QoWI-wise.
OAC: Baldwin-Wallace is in regardless; anyone else has to win the OAC tourney to get in.
AMCC: Lake Erie's last two games are worth 11 and 15 QoWI points if they win, so a trip to the conference tournament final may put them in the running for one of the last pool C bids.

[ScotsFan]

Seriously, I was just thinking about your question the other day.  I believe that the highest remaining seed, Witt, would then host the remainder of the tournament, but I'm not at all sure about that.  I'm wondering about Kenyon, that they might have been playing a little possum last Tuesday.  Formato played only 20 minutes.  Their shot blocker, the freshman Bediako, played only 12 despite being 4-5 from the floor.  He was in some foul trouble, though.

You are correct in that the highest remaining seed would host if the top seed is knocked out in the opening round.  Does anyone know if  this ever happened in the NCAC tournament?

As for the Lords playing possum, if that's what they want to think they were doing, more power to 'em.  I didn't attend the game, but listening to the broadcast, Bediako was saddled with foul trouble which would explain his lack of minutes.  And from the write-up in the local fish wrap, it sounded as if Witucky and co. did a number on Formato defenively.  Of course, they are clearly biased in their writing, but, I wouldn't count on anything less than what we witnessed last Tuesday.  Unless, Wooster would go over the century mark. That wouldn't be less now would it.

As for the regular season which wraps up, lets see now,  later today, does anyone see this OWU game as a possible hickup for Wooster like the Wabash game was for Witt?  OWU kept the game within reach the last time they played, although, I never really felt like the Bishops were ever much of a threat the entire game.  And, it was Wooster's first game without the services of Tom Port.  I would look for this one to be somewhat close again, unless Wooster comes out blazing like they have been doing since Port's return.  OWU needs to stay with Wooster early to have any chance.  If the Bishops can keep it close through the 1st half, they could make a ballgame out of it.  I just feel, with Port in the lineup this time around, it'll be too much for the Battling Bishops to handle.

[kiltedbryan]

I heard from a reliable source (it might have been DC) that if Kenyon were to knock off Wooster that both the NCAC and NCAA tournaments would be called off and that Kenyon would be proclaimed both the conference and national champion.  They would also be given an expansion slot in the NBA for the 2006-07 season, and would be know as the Lords of Gambier.

Just think of the ticker-tape parade to celebrate when the Lords come home to the bustling metropolis of Gambier!  It would be complete with poetry readings and staged Greek dramas on floats...

Seriously, though, would Kenyonites (do they call themselves that?) even know how to celebrate a national championship in a sport that doesn't use meters?  

[woosterbooster]

I ran a one-game computer sim of the Wooster-OWU matchup yesterday and the Scots won, but only by 6.  I'm going down there tomorrow, and don't know what to expect.  At Wooster, OWU shot the lights out, making some difficult threes ala JCU.  But maybe that's normal protocol for them; we'll see.

Kenyonites.  Sounds like something Superman should be wary of.

[David Collinge]

As for the regular season which wraps up, lets see now,  later today, does anyone see this OWU game as a possible hickup for Wooster like the Wabash game was for Witt? 

Yes, I do.  I wouldn't bet on OWU to win, but I won't be surprised at all if it happens.