MBB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[pennstghs]

yeah penn state has won their last two florida bowls-maybe witt can get screwed in the draw and force me to take a roadtrip down there

[pennstghs]

also before it is announced today, my prediction for player of the week in the NCAC is Gregg Hill

[David Collinge]

also before it is announced today, my prediction for player of the week in the NCAC is Gregg Hill

You, sir, are correct.
http://www.northcoast.org/mb/mbpow.txt
Congratulations to Gregg!

[ScotsFan]

Will this week's pick for NCAC POW meet with Wally's approval?

I think Hill was a very deserving choice just for his performance against Wooster alone.

[wally_wabash]

Handicapping the remainder of the season and possible/probable tournament seeds:

Wooster (11-1): Games left: Hiram, @Wabash, @Kenyon, OWU.  It's really hard to see Wooster losing any of these games, particularly now that their mulligan has been used up.  Prediction: 15-1, #1 seed

Witt (10-2): Games left: OWU, Hiram, Wabash, @Allegheny.  Witt is more prone to upsets than Wooster, but with Chojnacki out it's hard to see OWU being able to hang.  At home for three of the final four, Witt looks good to win out.  Prediction: 14-2, #2 seed

OWU (8-4): Games left: @Witt, Earlham, Oberlin, @Wooster.  Witt and Woo are right out now that Chojnacki is unavailable.  Earlham and Oberlin could pull upsets if the Bishops are particularly cold, but I doubt it.  Prediction: 10-6, #3 seed

Wabash (6-6): Games left: @Earlham, Wooster, @Witt, Kenyon.  Wabash's chances at the fourth home game in round 1 rest entirely on Wednesday's game against Earlham I think.  I think Wabash has the chops to pull it off.  Prediction: 8-8, #4 seed

Kenyon (5-7): Games left: @Denison, Oberlin, Wooster, @Wabash.  There could be a lot on the line for both Kenyon and Wabash in that finale.  Keep an eye out for that game.  Prediction: 7-9, #5 seed*. 

Hiram (6-6): Games left: @Wooster, @Witt, Allegheny, @Denison.  Tough week ahead for Hiram, then Denison on Senior Day in a rematch of the 4OT thriller.  I don't see any gimmes here for Hiram.  Prediction 7-9, #6 seed*.

Earlham (5-7): Games left: Wabash, @OWU, Denison, @Oberlin.  How huge is the game vs. Wabash.  A win there and Earlham is set up to host a tournament game.  A loss, and Earlham could find themselves heading to Witt for the opening round.  Prediction: 7-9, #7 seed*.

Allegheny (4-8): Games left: @Oberlin, Denison, @Hiram, Witt.  Really, the game against Oberlin is the biggest game left on Gheny's schedule.  Win there and the Gators are all but in the tournament.  Prediction: 6-10, #8 seed. 

Oberlin (3-9): Games left: Allegheny, @Kenyon, @OWU, Earlham.  I'm pretty sure I've picked Oberlin to lose all of these games.  It had to happen to somebody I guess.  Prediction: 3-13.

Denison (2-10):  Games left: Kenyon, @Allegheny, @Earlham, Hiram.  I don't know which one of these games Denison gets, but they get one of them.  The leading candidate is Hiram on Senior Day.  Prediction: 3-13.

*A Kenyon/Hiram/Earlham tie is troublesome.  Kenyon swept Hiram, Hiram beat Earlham, but Earlham and Kenyon split and Earlham's win over OWU would seem to give Earlham a tiebreak advantage there.  I'm not 100% sure on how this would break down, so I'm speculating here.  

I think what this shows is that there are a lot of big games for the teams jammed up in the middle of the conference and the stakes are pretty huge.  The margin for error is slim as one game could be the difference between hosting and traveling to Springfield for the opening round. 

[pennstghs]

wow good analysis and work wally-nicely done-karma to you!!!!!!!!!

[earlhamalum]

Wally_ golf clap on you're analysis of the NCAC.  Sadly I wish I could say Earlham will finish better then 7th.  (i honestly believe they can)  I don't think the game on wed. will be the final factor on whether or not Earlham will finish better then 7th... history shows if they will on Wed. then they will lose a game they should win  (oberlin or Denison)... wish i was kidding!   

[wally_wabash]

It should be noted that there is a difference between finishing seventh and being the seventh seed in the tournament.  If my predictions play out, Earlham ends up in a fifth place tie, but because we can't have three teams seeded fifth for the tournament, they'd end up in Springfield for the opening round as the seventh seed.  Also keep in mind that I pulled the tiebreak right out of left field.  The tiebreak could certainly go Earlham's way. 

Wednesday's games should help clear up a lot of this mess. 

[pennstghs]

wow slow couple of days on the board here-anyone have anything interesting to talk about?

What is everyone's favorite gym to go and play or attend a game in? Personally i enjoyed the earlham gym despite the lack of fan participation or attendance. Underrated facilities definitely

[Witt4ever]

wow slow couple of days on the board here-anyone have anything interesting to talk about?

I wonder why? 

[David Collinge]

I never played (unless you count the trombone), and have only been in five of the gyms in recent years, Earlham not being one of them.  Thusly limited, my favorite place to see a game, by a very wide margin, is the Kenyon Athletic Center.  It's just breathtaking.

[jscwittfan]

Thusly limited, my favorite place to see a game, by a very wide margin, is the Kenyon Athletic Center.  It's just breathtaking.

Agreed.  I have photos of the place for anyone who has not been there.  Absolutely stunning.

[WillieBrown]

geez with how quiet this board has been you would think somebody beat wooster or something

[David Collinge]

geez with how quiet this board has been you would think somebody beat wooster or something

I think you and Witt4Ever are using the same jokewriter. 

If you really want to, we can start talking about the Wooster/Hiram game tomorrow, but that doesn't seem like a very interesting subject.  Let's see...what teams have really big, important games Wednesday that we could be talking about?  Hmmm....

[David Collinge]

How about this...

The first set of regional rankings will be released tomorrow.  They of course mean nothing in and of themselves, but they do give something of a clue into the Regional Committee's thinking, and they play a role in Pool C selection and tournament seeding.

The Regional Standings page has been updated here, and Patrick Abegg has been tracking QoWI and regional records and posting his thoughts on regional rankings here for a while now.  Here's how Patrick sees the GL:

The rankings estimate updated for games through Sunday

Reg Conf Rank    School                    Natl Status       QOWI Reg Overall
GL  61   01 01  Lake Erie                 003  A w C        10.75 16-0 20-1
GL  62   02 03  Hope                      017  A w C        10.1818 10-1 17-2
GL  63   03 02  Wooster                   022  A w C        10.1333 13-2 18-3
GL  63   04 04  Wittenberg                036  C 10         10 13-3 18-3
GL  64   05 07  John Carroll              050  C 19         9.9444 13-5 14-7
GL  64   06 06  Ohio Northern             059  A second     9.8125 11-5 16-5
GL  90   07 05  Carnegie Mellon           064  C third      9.5625 11-5 12-7
GL  65   08 08  Westminster (Pa.)         066  B 4          8.9333 12-3 14-7
GL  61   09 00  Penn State-Behrend        077               8.7895 14-5 15-5
Reg        Region
Conf       Conference number
Rank      Regional ranking
Prior       Prior regional ranking
School
Natl     National ranking based on regional results
Status
    B + number: Pool B ranking (top 3 in tournament)
    C + number: Pool C ranking of 19 teams in tournament
    C second: second tier Pool C (spots 20-29)
    C third: third tier Pool C (spots 30-39)
    A w C: Pool A, in likely Pool C range (1 to 13)
    A bubble: Pool A, in Pool C bubble range (14 to 19)
    A second: Pool A, in second tier Pool C
    A third: Pool A, in third tier Pool C
    blank: lower level Pool C

What does anyone think of this?  How do you see the rankings coming out?  Lake Erie is clearly the #1 team, but after that arguments could be made.