MBB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[David Collinge]

What do you guys think of this newcomer out of nowhere, Chris Roberts.....and do you think he has a shot at winning player of the year in this conference?

I'm not sure he's a "newcomer out of nowhere" (I doubt he's a "newcomer" at all, as the NCAC defines that term); he did average 11.2 ppg last season, third on the team (behind Staley and McDevitt), although he only played 11 games.  It looks to me that those were most or all of the first 11 games, so I guess he got injured.  Funny, we weren't paying as close attention to Hiram last season as we are now!

I think Roberts is a lead-pipe cinch for first team All-NCAC.  If Hiram wins the conference, he has a chance for conference POY, especially if he has a big game Saturday.  But I don't think it's a strong chance.  Overall he ranks fourth in the conference in scoring at 17.5 ppg, but a lot of that was his ultra-hot start to the season--he was Hiram's leading scorer in each of the first 10 games, a span during which he averaged 22.9 ppg.  Since then, he's averaged just 12.0 ppg and was the leading scorer in just two games.  In terms of conference games only, he's averaging 12.6 ppg, tied for 13th with Wooster's largely unheralded Nathan Balch.  Roberts is also a top-10 rebounder (overall 5.5 rpg, 10th; conference only 5.2 rpg, 9th), and he's among the league leaders in steals, but unless he really elevates and delivers a conference title, I think he'll probably have to settle for a first-team all-NCAC slot.

Which raises the question of who will the POY be?  From where I sit, Bryan Yelvington is far ahead in this race, leading the conference in both scoring and rebounding, overall and conference-only.  He's also top 10 in FG%, FT%, and steals.  The only thing his resume lacks is that his team will not win the conference and may not finish in the top 4.  His saving grace, however, may be that the teams that finish ahead of Kenyon don't have any players that can come close to his stats.  Both Wooster and Wittenberg have different players up and down the lineup pitching in every night.  Hiram has Roberts, as discussed above.  OWU has Kyle Holliday, top 10 in scoring, rebounding, FG% (conf. only), 3pt. FG% and 3pt. FGs, but his stat line really pales in comparison to Bryan's.  It may come down to Holliday, Roberts, and Yelvington, but I think it's Bryan's plaque to lose at this point.

EDIT:  I'd be remiss if I didn't mention the fabulous season that Tristian Gregory is having at Earlham.  Despite being the focus of everyone else's defensive effort, he's averaging over 20 points per game (18.3 in conference games) and will reach 1400 career points the next time he puts the ball through the hoop.  But you can't win the POY trophy on a last place team, no matter how good you are.  Just ask Dan Hodgkinson.

[David Collinge]

If playing in just 11 games as a frosh somehow means that Chris Roberts hasn't lost his "newcomer" status, then he'd easily win NCAC Newcomer of the Year.  But I'd be surprised if that were the case, making the leading candidates probably OWU's Pat Pellerite and Wooster's Justin Hallowell.  There's other rookies making big contributions, like Denison's Mike Garabedian, Hiram's Andrew Wiegand, Wooster's Nathan Balch, and Josh McKee, Michael Cooper, and Alex Brandt at Wittenberg, but none of them have been contributing at as high a level from the start of the season as Pellerite and Hallowell have. 

Hallowell is the better scorer (12.0 to 10.0 in conference, 13.4 to 9.9 overall) and we all know about his three point shooting (leading the conference and 25th in D3 in makes, 1st in the NCAC and 4th nationally in 3PFG% overall, and 4th in 3PFG% in conference games), but he's also a top-20 rebounder (18th overall, t-12th conference only) and is actually 15th overall in FG%, amazing considering that nearly 3/4 of his shots are from beyond the arc. 

Pellerite is the better rebounder, ranking 5th both overall and in conference, is leading the conference in FG% (conf. only; he's 2nd overall) and is 6th in blocked shots (overall and conf. only), and is among the league leaders in free throw shooting (14th overall, 10th conference only).  I think he's the better all-around player, but he's perhaps less critical to his team's success; both Kyle Holliday and Kyle Miller have higher scoring averages (as does Brent Pleiman in conference games), while Hallowell is Wooster's second-leading scorer, just behind Ian Franks (also behind Nathan Balch in conference games, but just barely). 

On balance, I think Pellerite has a slight lead, but the race will be decided over the next five games.

[David Collinge]

Just to round things out, I'm sure we can all agree on who the NCAC Coach of the Year will be, almost regardless of what happens between now and the 21st.  Sometimes I wonder if the coaches get too much (or too little) credit, but if you're not a Steve Fleming believer, try this simple test.  You take last year's 8-18 Hiram team, subtract your two leading scorers, leading rebounder, (conference-)leading assister, and three leading three-point shooters, replace them all with Andrew Wiegand, then coach them and see what happens.

[JohnDaly]

I was just looking through some box scores from the games last night and saw that Aaron Brock didn't play last night against OWU. Anyone from Wabash know the reason why?

[wally_wabash]

Word on the street (the street being the Wabash press release) is that Brock sat out last night nursing an elbow that has been bugging him all year.  I've noticed Brock wearing a sleeve over the last few weeks but I wouldn't have been able to tell you if it was for aesthetic purposes or if it was therapeutic.  Seems to have been the latter.  Not having Brock, who has been by a pretty wide margin Wabash's best player since Jan. 10, certainly didn't help Wabash on a night when his points easily could have put the LGs over the top. 

[seinfeld]

I can't see how Roberts can be a Newcomer. He is a sophomore, and he is a sophomore because he played 11 games with Hiram last year (I think he then left school, but maybe JohnDaly can add more to this). 11 games is enough to lose your eligibility for that year. I actually think Hallowell probably has the edge over Pellerite. Assuming OWU and Wooster are seen as about equals at the end of the year, Hallowell will likely be seen as playing a larger role for the Scots. He has solidified himself as Wooster's second-best player. While he needs to improve his rebounding, especially for someone his size, he has single-handily won a few games this year, and his performance against Hiram on the road, in the biggest regular season game in the NCAC this year, should be the tie-breaker right now. In a game were everyone was dragging, Hallowell nearly played the entire second half, and would have if not for two quick fouls late in the second half.

Reed is playing because Wooster has no one else more than anything else. Yes, he plays with energy, but when his is on the floor, Wooster has four offensive players. Sawyer didn't make the trip last night, and Ross and Wickliffe each picked up two fouls in the first half. Absent these two factors, and Reed doesn't play. While Melick never developed like they hoped, Wooster could use his body in the post right now for about 10 minutes a game.

Random thought. Glenn Campbell, in my opinion, has looked like Hiram's best player in the two games Wooster has played them this year. If you knew nothing of season averages or the like, Campbell would look like Hiram's best player.

[woosterbooster]

Jerry, do you know why Sawyer didn't make the trip?  He's becoming quite a mystery this season.  A talented freshman that gets only sporadic playing time.  The Wooster bench definitely seems thinner than it did a month ago, and I'd really love to see Sawyer have more opportunity.  I don't think it would hurt Wooster to go back to a more traditional offense with the team makeup that it has: two guards on the court rather than the three that they've used the last few years.

[fantastic50]

After seeing the NCAA regional rankings this week, with no NCAC team included, this is looking like a one-bid league.  Given the national prominence of Wooster and Wittenberg, when is the last time that only one team got into the NCAA tournament from the NCAC?

[countyroad]

I was also wondering the last time that Wooster and Wittenberg missed out on the tournament in the same year.

[wally_wabash]

After seeing the NCAA regional rankings this week, with no NCAC team included, this is looking like a one-bid league.  Given the national prominence of Wooster and Wittenberg, when is the last time that only one team got into the NCAA tournament from the NCAC?

In 2007 Wooster was the only NCAC representative. 

I was also wondering the last time that Wooster and Wittenberg missed out on the tournament in the same year.

I would guess that you have to go back to the 1998 tournament to find a championship bracket void of both Wooster and Wittenberg.  Allegheny won the conference tournament that year and based on the records of Wooster and Witt, I doubt that they would have been selected.  1998 was also the last time Wabash was in the tournament...which seems like forever ago now!

[David Collinge]

After seeing the NCAA regional rankings this week, with no NCAC team included, this is looking like a one-bid league.  Given the national prominence of Wooster and Wittenberg, when is the last time that only one team got into the NCAA tournament from the NCAC?

Two seasons ago, in 2007.  Wooster got the only bid.

I was also wondering the last time that Wooster and Wittenberg missed out on the tournament in the same year.

The last NCAA tournament that failed to include either Wooster or Wittenberg was in 1988.  Wooster was 14-11 in Steve Moore's first year at the helm.  Wittenberg was the regular season OAC champions at 20-7, but lost in the OAC tournament to Muskingum.  Larry Hunter was the coach (Bill Brown took over in 1993).  Witt joined the NCAC two seasons later, for the 1989-90 season.

[cross-posted with Wally]

In 1998, Wooster was an at-large selection with a 22-5 record; they lost in the first round to John Carroll.  Witt was 19-7.  Allegheny beat Witt in the NCAC semifinal 61-50, then beat NCAC champion Wooster 66-64 for the title.

[ScotsFan]

Wittenberg actually hasn't made the NCAA tournament since their run all the way to the finals where they ended up as national runners up in '05-'06.  And unless they can somehow put things together in the conference tournament, that streak will grow to 3 seasons without an NCAA tournament appearance this year.

This has to be one of their longest NCAA tournament droughts in some time for Witt.  David?  Wally? 

[ScotsFan]

Which raises the question of who will the POY be?  From where I sit, Bryan Yelvington is far ahead in this race, leading the conference in both scoring and rebounding, overall and conference-only.  He's also top 10 in FG%, FT%, and steals.  The only thing his resume lacks is that his team will not win the conference and may not finish in the top 4.  His saving grace, however, may be that the teams that finish ahead of Kenyon don't have any players that can come close to his stats.  Both Wooster and Wittenberg have different players up and down the lineup pitching in every night.  Hiram has Roberts, as discussed above.  OWU has Kyle Holliday, top 10 in scoring, rebounding, FG% (conf. only), 3pt. FG% and 3pt. FGs, but his stat line really pales in comparison to Bryan's.  It may come down to Holliday, Roberts, and Yelvington, but I think it's Bryan's plaque to lose at this point.

EDIT:  I'd be remiss if I didn't mention the fabulous season that Tristian Gregory is having at Earlham.  Despite being the focus of everyone else's defensive effort, he's averaging over 20 points per game (18.3 in conference games) and will reach 1400 career points the next time he puts the ball through the hoop.  But you can't win the POY trophy on a last place team, no matter how good you are.  Just ask Dan Hodgkinson.

I can't argue with Yelvington right now.  You have to think, where would Kenyon be without Yelvington?  I'm sure the Lords aren't where they would like to be at this point in the season, but without Yelvington, I think the Lords would be battling just to make the NCAC tournament instead of battling for hosting a first round game.  If Roberts can somehow find his game, he should definitely be in the conversation.  But his average in conference games just isn't going to get it done IMO.  Of course, a huge game tomorrow against OWU could go a long way in the argument in Robert's favor. 

As for the other contenders, OWU has Holiday and Miller and I think they kind of cancel each other out.  And as far as Wooster goes, Franks would be their leading contender, but as David noted, the Scots seem to have a different leading scorer each game.  One night it's Franks, one night it's Hallowell, and the next night it's Balch, etc, etc.

If I had to vote now, Yelvington would be my choice, but Roberts still has some time to get his name back into consideration.

[ScotsFan]

If playing in just 11 games as a frosh somehow means that Chris Roberts hasn't lost his "newcomer" status, then he'd easily win NCAC Newcomer of the Year.  But I'd be surprised if that were the case, making the leading candidates probably OWU's Pat Pellerite and Wooster's Justin Hallowell.  There's other rookies making big contributions, like Denison's Mike Garabedian, Hiram's Andrew Wiegand, Wooster's Nathan Balch, and Josh McKee, Michael Cooper, and Alex Brandt at Wittenberg, but none of them have been contributing at as high a level from the start of the season as Pellerite and Hallowell have. 

Hallowell is the better scorer (12.0 to 10.0 in conference, 13.4 to 9.9 overall) and we all know about his three point shooting (leading the conference and 25th in D3 in makes, 1st in the NCAC and 4th nationally in 3PFG% overall, and 4th in 3PFG% in conference games), but he's also a top-20 rebounder (18th overall, t-12th conference only) and is actually 15th overall in FG%, amazing considering that nearly 3/4 of his shots are from beyond the arc. 

Pellerite is the better rebounder, ranking 5th both overall and in conference, is leading the conference in FG% (conf. only; he's 2nd overall) and is 6th in blocked shots (overall and conf. only), and is among the league leaders in free throw shooting (14th overall, 10th conference only).  I think he's the better all-around player, but he's perhaps less critical to his team's success; both Kyle Holliday and Kyle Miller have higher scoring averages (as does Brent Pleiman in conference games), while Hallowell is Wooster's second-leading scorer, just behind Ian Franks (also behind Nathan Balch in conference games, but just barely). 

On balance, I think Pellerite has a slight lead, but the race will be decided over the next five games.

I think I would lean towards Hallowell for NOY at this point of the season.  I think he is more valuable to Wooster's overall success than Pellerite is for OWU. 

[wally_wabash]

This has to be one of their longest NCAA tournament droughts in some time for Witt.  David?  Wally? 

The last time Witt went three seasons without making the dance are the '97-'98 through '99-'00 seasons.