MBB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[David Collinge]

If the 11-11 Tigers lose to three of four, it will be the first time since the 1955-56 season that they will have had a losing record. Heck, they've only had five seasons of 10 losses (and one .500 season) since that time!

It could happen. Wabash on the road, IU-East (no longer making fun...), Kenyon and perhaps Kenyon again in an NCAC playoff match.



Next thing you know, Linfield will be 4-5 in football!

First hurdle cleared:  Wittenberg 80, IU-East 69.

[wally_wabash]

Crazy to think that Wabash could miss the tournament.  I'm confident that they'll get in though given that Earlham has only ever beaten Wooster twice, not once in the last 23 years, and never ever at Wooster.  History suggests that Earlham won't get the two wins they need to force the tiebreak. 

[David Collinge]

Witt may not have cleared the hurdle cleanly, however; it appears that both of the frosh wide receiver-cum-hoopsters turned their ankles in tonight's game.  Michael Cooper would seem to be fine, but you never know what will happen overnight.  Josh McKee's ankle injury is more of a concern, and would have to be considered questionable for Wednesday.  The short turnaround time and long bus ride to C'ville don't help matters, either.

[fantastic50]

Last week, Wooster was #5 in the Great Lakes regional rankings (http://d3blogs.com/d3hoops/category/ncaa-stuff/regional-rankings/), indicating at least a shot at a Pool C berth for the Scots.  However, Patrick Abegg's projections (http://d3blogs.com/d3hoops/2009/02/16/the-abegg-projections/), which fared pretty well last year, don't have the Scots anywhere on the board.  That's interesting...

[David Collinge]

The regional rankings are a snapshot at a moment in time.  I believe Patrick's projections also look into the future.  Wooster's next three games (Allegheny, Earlham, and the NCAC first round game) are all games that will hurt the Scots' OWP (I have no idea what they'll do to the OOWP), something that I think is taken account of in the projections.  I think a Pool C bid for either Wooster or OWU is at best a longshot at this point.   

[wally_wabash]

Witt may not have cleared the hurdle cleanly, however; it appears that both of the frosh wide receiver-cum-hoopsters turned their ankles in tonight's game.  Michael Cooper would seem to be fine, but you never know what will happen overnight.  Josh McKee's ankle injury is more of a concern, and would have to be considered questionable for Wednesday.  The short turnaround time and long bus ride to C'ville don't help matters, either.

This was a mortal lock to happen, right?  Witt scrambles the jets for a non-conference, non-divisional game they don't need at a time in the season when the day off is probably worth more than the game experience (non-divisional game experience at that).  I hope those kids come back alright, but this one gets filed directly into the "be careful what you wish for" file. 

[seinfeld]

Abegg must have completely missed Wooster. Not sure how Ohio Wesleyan can be #16 on the Pool C list, and Wooster is not even in the top 28. Wooster is one game better in winning percentage. OWU has an edge in OWP, and they are basically tied in OOWP. I would think these two teams would be virtually tied in any at-large rankings, with Wooster possibly holding a tiny advantage because of a slightly better record.

[sac]

Abegg must have completely missed Wooster. Not sure how Ohio Wesleyan can be #16 on the Pool C list, and Wooster is not even in the top 28. Wooster is one game better in winning percentage. OWU has an edge in OWP, and they are basically tied in OOWP. I would think these two teams would be virtually tied in any at-large rankings, with Wooster possibly holding a tiny advantage because of a slightly better record.

OK, here we go for this week:

Reg Conf Rank Prior RPI    OWP    OOWP   School                    Natl Status      Reg Overall
GL  64   01   01    0.6193 0.5522 0.5154 Capital                   013  A w C       18-3 20-3
GL  64   02   02    0.6115 0.5416 0.5208 John Carroll              018  C 4         16-3 18-4
GL  62   03   04    0.5876 0.4686 0.4965 Calvin                    020  A w C       11-1 16-6
GL  63   04   05    0.5828 0.5133 0.5047 Wooster                   037  A w C       16-4 17-6
GL  90   05   03    0.5921 0.5335 0.5366 Carnegie Mellon           038  C 13        13-4 17-5
GL  63   06   06    0.5798 0.5315 0.5063 Ohio Wesleyan             044  C 16        15-5 16-6
GL  64   07   08    0.5716 0.5334 0.5194 Ohio Northern             057  C 26        14-6 16-7
GL  62   08   07    0.5692 0.5446 0.4951 Hope                      068  C 35        9-4 16-7
GL  61   09   09    0.5412 0.4724 0.4831 Penn State-Behrend        082              14-5 16-7


Reg        Region
Conf       Conference number
Rank      Regional ranking
Prior       Prior regional ranking
School
Natl     National ranking based on regional results
Status
    B + number: Pool B ranking (top 4 in tournament)
    C + number: Pool C ranking of 18 teams in tournament
    C second: second tier Pool C (spots 19-28)
    C third: third tier Pool C (spots 29-38)
    A in: clinched Pool A bid
    A w C: Pool A, in Pool C range (1 to 18)
    A second: Pool A, in second tier Pool C
    A third: Pool A, in third tier Pool C
    A: lower level Pool A
    blank: lower level Pool C

The bottom  chart is the Great lakes region chart, Pabegg has Wooster penciled in as the Pool A from the NCAC.  If they don't get the A, they would be in ok shape for a C, depending on when the tournament loss occured.

[ScotsFan]

Abegg must have completely missed Wooster. Not sure how Ohio Wesleyan can be #16 on the Pool C list, and Wooster is not even in the top 28. Wooster is one game better in winning percentage. OWU has an edge in OWP, and they are basically tied in OOWP. I would think these two teams would be virtually tied in any at-large rankings, with Wooster possibly holding a tiny advantage because of a slightly better record.

OK, here we go for this week:

Reg Conf Rank Prior RPI    OWP    OOWP   School                    Natl Status      Reg Overall
GL  64   01   01    0.6193 0.5522 0.5154 Capital                   013  A w C       18-3 20-3
GL  64   02   02    0.6115 0.5416 0.5208 John Carroll              018  C 4         16-3 18-4
GL  62   03   04    0.5876 0.4686 0.4965 Calvin                    020  A w C       11-1 16-6
GL  63   04   05    0.5828 0.5133 0.5047 Wooster                   037  A w C       16-4 17-6
GL  90   05   03    0.5921 0.5335 0.5366 Carnegie Mellon           038  C 13        13-4 17-5
GL  63   06   06    0.5798 0.5315 0.5063 Ohio Wesleyan             044  C 16        15-5 16-6
GL  64   07   08    0.5716 0.5334 0.5194 Ohio Northern             057  C 26        14-6 16-7
GL  62   08   07    0.5692 0.5446 0.4951 Hope                      068  C 35        9-4 16-7
GL  61   09   09    0.5412 0.4724 0.4831 Penn State-Behrend        082              14-5 16-7


Reg        Region
Conf       Conference number
Rank      Regional ranking
Prior       Prior regional ranking
School
Natl     National ranking based on regional results
Status
    B + number: Pool B ranking (top 4 in tournament)
    C + number: Pool C ranking of 18 teams in tournament
    C second: second tier Pool C (spots 19-28)
    C third: third tier Pool C (spots 29-38)
    A in: clinched Pool A bid
    A w C: Pool A, in Pool C range (1 to 18)
    A second: Pool A, in second tier Pool C
    A third: Pool A, in third tier Pool C
    A: lower level Pool A
    blank: lower level Pool C

The bottom  chart is the Great lakes region chart, Pabegg has Wooster penciled in as the Pool A from the NCAC.  If they don't get the A, they would be in ok shape for a C, depending on when the tournament loss occured.

My guess is that it was just an oversight on Abegg's part.  Looking at his projections from the GL above, it looks as though he feels that Wooster is still fairly safe if they don't get the A.  I still think the Scots need to at least win out and make the conference finals for them to be even considered for a C.  And I'm still not convinced that will be good enough for the Scots to get a C.  I really have a hard time believing the NCAC would be a 2 bid conference this year...

[Pat Coleman]

It's not an oversight -- read the chart and the key.

[smedindy]

If the 11-11 Tigers lose to three of four, it will be the first time since the 1955-56 season that they will have had a losing record. Heck, they've only had five seasons of 10 losses (and one .500 season) since that time!

It could happen. Wabash on the road, IU-East (no longer making fun...), Kenyon and perhaps Kenyon again in an NCAC playoff match.



Next thing you know, Linfield will be 4-5 in football!

First hurdle cleared:  Wittenberg 80, IU-East 69.

You know it would happen - and it was all because I mentioned Linfield. I should know you don't mess with Linfield's streak...

[smedindy]

Just wanted to say that I checked out how former Wabash assistant's Jason Mulligan's team is doing up at the University of New England.

20-3, 11-0 in the CCC after a 1-3 start.

[Pat Coleman]

Good stories about UNE have been in the What We're Reading list on the D3hoops.com front page, if people here are interested.

[seinfeld]

With his performance against Wittenberg last Saturday, I think Nathan Balch has now entered the discussion for Newcomer of the Year. Even though he played Div. I basketball last year, he still qualifies (why the Newcomer award is not limited to new college players, not new players to the NCAC, I don't know).

For the year, he is averaging 12 points, three rebounds and is third on the team in assists (53) and steals (18). He is also shooting 48% from the field, 46% from three-point range and 89% from the foul line. In NCAC play, he is averaging 13.5 points. Throw in that he can play both the point guard and two guard positions, he is giving Hallowell a good run or the best newcomer on the Scots and should at least get some consideration.

[wooscotsfan]

At the Half:  Wooster 25  Allegheny 20

Wooster is being led by Marty Bidwell with 8 points, Ian Franks with 5 points and Matt Fegan also with 5 points.

Allegheny's hottest player is Henry Heeter with 9 points.    Donte Briscoe has chipped in 4 points.

Both teams did not shoot well in the half with Allegheny at 30% and Wooster at only 27%.  Scots made 4 three pointers and outscored the Gators at the charity stripe to get the 5 point lead.